6 Conceptual Models

Description: Conceptual models for the New England (Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine) and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast US Large Marine Ecosystem

Found in: State of the Ecosystem - Gulf of Maine & Georges Bank (2018+), State of the Ecosystem - Mid-Atlantic (2018+)

Indicator category: Synthesis of published information, Extensive analysis; not yet published

Contributor(s): Sarah Gaichas, Patricia Clay, Geret DePiper, Gavin Fay, Michael Fogarty, Paula Fratantoni, Robert Gamble, Sean Lucey, Charles Perretti, Patricia Pinto da Silva, Vincent Saba, Laurel Smith, Jamie Tam, Steve Traynor, Robert Wildermuth

Data steward: Sarah Gaichas,

Point of contact: Sarah Gaichas,

Public availability statement: All source data aside from confidential commercial fisheries data (relevant only to some components of the conceptual models) are available to the public (see Data Sources below).

6.1 Methods

Conceptual models were constructed to facilitate multidisciplinary analysis and discussion of the linked social-ecological system for integrated ecosystem assessment. The overall process was to first identify the components of the model (focal groups, human activities, environmental drivers, and objectives), and then to document criteria for including groups and linkages and what the specific links were between the components.

The prototype conceptual model used to design Northeast US conceptual models for each ecosystem production unit (EPU) was designed by the California Current IEA program. The California Current IEA developed an overview conceptual model for the Northern California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (NCC), with models for each focal ecosystem component that detailed the ecological, environmental, and human system linkages. Another set of conceptual models outlined habitat linkages.

An inital conceptual model for Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine was outlined at the 2015 ICES WGNARS meeting. It specified four categories: Large scale drivers, focal ecosystem components, human activities, and human well being. Strategic management objectives were included in the conceptual model, which had not been done in the NCC. Focal ecosystem components were defined as aggregate species groups that had associated US management objectives (outlined within WGNARS for IEAs, see DePiper et al. (2017)): groundfish, forage fish, fished invertebrates, living habitat, and protected species. These categories roughly align with Fishery Managment Plans (FMPs) for the New England Fishery Management Council. The Mid-Atlantic conceptual model was developed along similar lines, but the focal groups included demersals, forage fish, squids, medium pelagics, clams/quahogs, and protected species to better align with the Mid Atlantic Council’s FMPs.

After the initial draft model was outlined, working groups were formed to develop three submodels following the CCE example: ecological, environmental, and human dimensions. The general approach was to specify what was being included in each group, what relationship was represented by a link between groups, what threshold of the relationship was used to determine whether a relationship was significant enough to be included (we did not want to model everything), the direction and uncertainty of the link, and documentation supporting the link between groups. This information was recorded in a spreadsheet. Submodels were then merged together by common components using the “merge” function in the (currently unavailable) desktop version of Mental Modeler (http://www.mentalmodeler.org/#home; Gray et al. (2013)). The process was applied to Georges Bank (GB), the Gulf of Maine (GOM), and the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) Ecological Production Units.

6.1.1 Data sources

6.1.1.1 Ecological submodels

Published food web (EMAX) models for each subregion (J. S. Link et al. 2006; Jason Link et al. 2008), food habits data collected by NEFSC trawl surveys (B. E. Smith and Link 2010), and other literature sources (L. A. Smith et al. 2015) were consulted. Expert judgement was also used to adjust historical information to current conditions, and to include broad habitat linkages to Focal groups.

6.1.1.2 Environmental submodels

Published literature on the primary environmental drivers (seasonal and interannual) in each EPU was consulted. Sources for Georges Bank included Backus and Bourne (1987) and Townsend et al. (2006). Sources for the Gulf of Maine included Peter C. Smith (1983), Peter C. Smith et al. (2001), Mupparapu and Brown (2002), Townsend et al. (2006), Peter C. Smith et al. (2012), and Mountain (2012).
Sources for the Mid Atlantic Bight included R. W. Houghton et al. (1982), Beardsley et al. (1985), Lentz (2003), Mountain (2003), Glenn et al. (2004), Sullivan, Cowen, and Steves (2005), Castelao et al. (2008), Shearman and Lentz (2009), Castelao, Glenn, and Schofield (2010), Gong, Kohut, and Glenn (2010), Gawarkiewicz et al. (2012), Forsyth, Andres, and Gawarkiewicz (2015), Fratantoni, Holzwarth-Davis, and Taylor (2015), W. G. Zhang and Gawarkiewicz (2015), Timothy J. Miller, Hare, and Alade (2016), and Lentz (2017a).

6.1.1.3 Human dimensions submodels

Fishery catch and bycatch information was drawn from multiple regional datasets, incuding the Greater Atlantic Regional Office Vessel Trip Reports & Commercial Fisheries Dealer databases, Northeast Fishery Observer Program & Northeast At-Sea Monitoring databases, Northeast Fishery Science Center Social Sciences Branch cost survey, and the Marine Recreational Informational Program database. Further synthesis of human welfare derived from fisheries was drawn from Färe, Kirkley, and Walden (2006), Walden et al. (2012), M.-Y. Lee and Thunberg (2013), M.-Y. Lee (2014), and M.-Y. Lee, Steinback, and Wallmo (2017). Bycatch of protected species was taken from Waring et al. (2015), with additional insights from Bisack and Magnusson (2014). The top 3 linkages were drawn for each node. For example, the top 3 recreational species for the Mid-Atlantic were used to draw linkages between the recreational fishery and species focal groups. A similar approach was used for relevant commercial fisheries in each region.

Habitat-fishery linkages were drawn from unpublished reports, including:

  1. Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council. 2016. Amendment 16 to the Atlantic Mackerel, Squid, and Butterfish Fishery Management Plan: Measures to protect deep sea corals from Impacts of Fishing Gear. Environmental Assessment, Regulatory Impact Review, and Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis. Dover, DE. August, 2016.

  2. NOAA. 2016. Deep sea coral research and technology program 2016 Report to Congress. http://www.habitat.noaa.gov/protection/corals/deepseacorals.html retrieved February 8, 2017.

  3. New England Fishery Management Council. 2016. Habitat Omnibus Deep-Sea Coral Amendment: Draft. http://www.nefmc.org/library/omnibus-deep-sea-coral-amendment Retrieved Feb 8, 2017.

  4. Bachman et al. 2011. The Swept Area Seabed Impact (SASI) Model: A Tool for Analyzing the Effects of Fishing on Essential Fish Habitat. New England Fisheries Management Council Report. Newburyport, MA.

Tourism and habitat linkages were drawn from unpublished reports, including:

  1. http://neers.org/RESOURCES/Bibliographies.html

  2. Great Bay (GoM) resources http://greatbay.org/about/publications.htm

  3. Meaney, C.R. and C. Demarest. 2006. Coastal Polution and New England Fisheries. Report for the New England Fisheries Management Council. Newburyport, MA.

  4. List of valuation studies, by subregion and/or state, can be found at http://www.oceaneconomics.org/nonmarket/valestim.asp.

Published literature on human activities in each EPU was consulted.

Sources for protected species and tourism links included Hoagland and Meeks (2000) and M.-Y. Lee (2010).

Sources for links between environmental drivers and human activities included Adams (1973), Matzarakis and Freitas (2001), Scott, McBoyle, and Schwartzentruber (2004), Hess, Malilay, and Parkinson (2008), Colburn and Jepson (2012), Michael Jepson and Colburn (2013), and Colburn et al. (2016).

Sources for cultural practices and attachments links included Daniel Pauly (1997), McGoodwin (2001), St Martin (2001), Norris-Raynbird (2004), Pollnac et al. (2006), Clay and Olson (2007), Clay and Olson (2008), Everett and Aitchison (2008), Donkersloot (2010), Lord (2011), Halpern et al. (2012), Wynveen, Kyle, and Sutton (2012), Cortes-Vazquez and Zedalis (2013), Koehn, Reineman, and Kittinger (2013), Potschin and Haines-Young (2013), Reed et al. (2013), Urquhart and Acott (2013), Blasiak et al. (2014), Klain, Satterfield, and Chan (2014), Poe, Norman, and Levin (2014), Brown (2015), Donatuto and Poe (2015), Khakzad and Griffith (2016), Oberg et al. (2016), and Seara, Clay, and Colburn (2016).

6.1.2 Data extraction

6.1.2.1 Ecological submodels

“Data” included model estimated quantities to determine whether inclusion thresholds were met for each potential link in the conceptual model. A matrix with diet composition for each modeled group is an input to the food web model. A matrix of mortalities caused by each predator and fishery on each modeled group is a direct ouput of a food web model (e.g. Ecopath). Food web model biomasss flows between species, fisheries, and detritus were summarized using algorithms implemented in visual basic by Kerim Aydin, NOAA NMFS Alaska Fisheries Science Center. Because EMAX model groups were aggregated across species, selected diet compositions for individual species were taken from the NEFSC food habits database using the FEAST program for selected species (example query below). These diet queries were consulted as supplemental information.

Example FEAST sql script for Cod weighted diet on Georges Bank can be found here. Queries for different species are standardized by the FEAST application and would differ only in the svspp code.

6.1.2.2 Environmental submodels

Information was synthesized entirely from published sources and expert knowledge; no additional data extraction was completed for the environmental submodels.

6.1.2.3 Human dimensions submodels

Recreational fisheries data were extracted from the 2010-2014 MRIP datasets. Original data can be found here for each region (New England or Mid-Atlantic as defined by states).

Commercial fishing data was developed as part of the State of the Ecosystem Report, including revenue and food production estimates, with data extraction metodology discussed in the relevant sections of the technical document. In addition, the Northeast Regional Input/Output Model (Steinback and Thunberg 2006) was used as the basis for the strength of the employment linkages.

6.1.3 Data analysis

6.1.3.1 Ecological submodels

Aggregated diet and mortality information was examined to determine the type of link, direction of link, and which links between which groups should be inclded in the conceptual models. Two types of ecological links were defined using food web models: prey links and predation/fishing mortality links. Prey links resulted in positve links between the prey group and the focal group, while predation/fishing mortality links resulted in negative links to the focal group to represent energy flows. The intent was to include only the most important linkages between focal groups and with other groups supporting or causing mortality on focal species groups. Therefore, threshold levels of diet and mortality were established (based on those that would select the top 1-3 prey and predators of each focal group): 10% to include a link (or add a linked group) in the model and 20% to include as a strong link. A Primary Production group was included in each model and linked to pelagic habitat to allow environmental effects on habitat to be connected to the ecologial submodel. Uncertainty for the inclusion of each link and for the magnitude of each link was qualitatively assessed and noted in the spreadsheet.

Four habitat categories (Pelagic, Seafloor and Demersal, Nearshore, and Freshwater and Estuarine) were included in ecological submodels as placeholders to be developed further along with habitat-specific research. Expert opinion was used to include the strongest links between each habitat type and each Focal group (noting that across species and life stages, members of these aggregate groups likely occupy many if not all of the habitat types). Link direction and strength were not specified. Environmental drivers were designed to link to habitats, rather than directly to Focal groups, to represent each habitat’s important mediation function.

EMAX model groups were aggregated to focal groups for the Georges Bank (GB), Gulf of Maine (GOM) and Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) conceptual models according to Table 6.1. “Linked groups” directly support or impact the Focal groups as described above.

Table 6.1: Table 6.2: Relationship between food web model groups and conceptual model focal groups. Pinnipeds not included in GB and Seabirds not included in MAB.
Group Type Region Conceptual model group EMAX group(s)
Focal GB Commercial Fishery Fishery
Focal GB Fished Inverts Megabenthos filterers
Focal GB Forage Fish Sum of Small pelagics-commercial, other, anadromous, and squids
Focal GB Groundfish Sum of Demersals-omnivores, benthivores, and piscivores
Focal GB Protected Species Sum of Baleen Whales, Odontocetes, and Seabirds
Linked GB Benthos Sum of Macrobenthos-polychaetes, crustaceans, molluscs, other and Megabenthos-other
Linked GB Copepods and Micronecton Sum of Copepods-small and large, and Micronekton
Linked GB Detritus and Bacteria Sum of Bacteria and Detritus-POC
Linked GB Gelatinous zooplankton Gelatinous zooplankton
Linked GB Primary Production Phytoplankton-Primary production
Focal GOM Commercial Fishery Fishery
Focal GOM Fished Inverts Megabenthos filterers
Focal GOM Forage Fish Sum of Small pelagics-commercial, other, anadromous, and squids
Focal GOM Groundfish Sum of Demersals-omnivores, benthivores, and piscivores
Focal GOM Protected Species Sum of Baleen Whales, Odontocetes, Pinnipeds, and Seabirds
Linked GOM Benthos Sum of Macrobenthos-polychaetes, crustaceans, molluscs, other and Megabenthos-other
Linked GOM Copepods and Micronecton Sum of Copepods-small and large, and Micronekton
Linked GOM Detritus and Bacteria Sum of Bacteria and Detritus-POC
Linked GOM Gelatinous zooplankton Gelatinous zooplankton
Linked GOM Primary Production Phytoplankton-Primary production
Focal MAB Clams Quahogs Megabenthos filterers
Focal MAB Commercial Fishery Fishery
Focal MAB Demerals Sum of Demersals-omnivores, benthivores, and piscivores
Focal MAB Forage Fish Sum of Small pelagics-commercial, other, and anadromous
Focal MAB Medium Pelagics Medium pelagics
Focal MAB Protected Species Sum of Baleen whales and Odontocetes
Focal MAB Squids Small pelagics-squids
Linked MAB Benthos Sum of Macrobenthos-polychaetes, crustaceans, molluscs, other
Linked MAB Copepods and Micronecton Sum of Copepods-small and large, and Micronekton
Linked MAB Detritus and Bacteria Sum of Bacteria and Detritus-POC
Linked MAB Gelatinous zooplankton Gelatinous zooplankton
Linked MAB Primary Production Phytoplankton-Primary production
Linked MAB Sharks Sum of Sharks-pelagic and coastal

Ecological submodels were constructed and visualized in Mental Modeler (Fig. 6.1). Here, we show only the Gulf of Maine submodels as examples.

Gulf of Maine Ecological submodel

Figure 6.1: Gulf of Maine Ecological submodel

6.1.3.2 Environmental submodels

Environmental submodels were designed to link key oceanographic processes in each ecosystem production unit to the four general habitat categories (Pelagic, Seafloor and Demersal, Nearshore, and Freshwater and Estuarine) with emphasis on the most important physical processes in each ecosystem based on expert knowledge as supported by literature review. The basis of each submodel were environmental variables observable at management-relevant scales as identified by WGNARS: Surface and Bottom Water Temperature and Salinity, Freshwater Input, and Stratification (as well as sea ice timing and cover, which is not relevant to the northeast US shelf). Key drivers changing these observable variables and thus structuring habitat dynamics in each Ecological Production Units were added to the model using expert consensus.

Environmental submodels were initially constructed and visualized in Mental Modeler (Fig. 6.2).
Gulf of Maine Environmental submodel

Figure 6.2: Gulf of Maine Environmental submodel

6.1.3.3 Human dimensions submodels

The top 3 species from each mode of recreational fishing (shoreside, private boat, party/charter) were used to assess the potential for missing links between the recreational fishing activity and biological focal components. Given the predominance of Mid-Atlantic groundfish in recreational fishing off New England (summer flounder, bluefish, striped bass), a Mid-Atlantic groundfish focal component was added to the Georges Bank EPU model. The magnitude of benefits generated from recreational fishing was scaled to reflect expert knowledge of target species, coupled with the MRIP data highlighted above. Scales were held consistent across the focal components within recreational fishing.

No additional biological focal components were added to the commercial fishing activity, beyond what was developed in the ecological submodel. Benefits derived from commercial fishing were scaled to be consistent with the State of the Ecosystem revenue estimates, as modulated by expert knowledge and additional data sources. For example,the percentage of landings sold as food was used to map fishing activity to the commercial fishery food production objective, and the Northeast Regional Input/Output Model (Steinback and Thunberg 2006) was used to define the strength of the employment linkages. For profitability, expert knowledge was used to reweight revenue landings, based on ancillary cost data available (Das, Chhandita 2013, 2014). Human activities and objectives for the conceptual sub model are defined in DePiper et al. (2017). As shown in Figure 6.3, human dimensions submodels were also initially constructed and visualized in Mental Modeler.

Gulf of Maine Human dimensions submodel

Figure 6.3: Gulf of Maine Human dimensions submodel

6.1.3.4 Merged models

All links and groups from each submodel were preserved in the full merged model for each system. Mental modeler was used to merge the submodels. Full models were then re-drawn in Dia (http://dia-installer.de/) with color codes for each model component type for improved readability. Examples for each system are below.

Georges Bank conceptual model

Figure 6.4: Georges Bank conceptual model

Gulf of Maine conceptual model

Figure 6.5: Gulf of Maine conceptual model

Mid-Atlantic Bight conceptual model

Figure 6.6: Mid-Atlantic Bight conceptual model

6.1.3.5 Communication tools

The merged models were redrawn for use in communications with the public. These versions lead off the State of the Ecosystem reports for both Fishery Management Councils to provide an overview of linkages between environmental drivers, ecological, and human systems.

New England conceptual model for public communication

Figure 6.7: New England conceptual model for public communication

Mid-Atlantic conceptual model for public communication

Figure 6.8: Mid-Atlantic conceptual model for public communication

catalog link No associated catalog page

References

Adams, Robert L. A. 1973. “Uncertainty in Nature, Cognitive Dissonance, and the Perceptual Distortion of Environmental Information: Weather Forecasts and New England Beach Trip Decisions.” Economic Geography 49 (4): 287–97. https://doi.org/10.2307/143232.
Backus, Richard H., and Donald W. Bourne, eds. 1987. Georges Bank. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Beardsley, Robert C., David C. Chapman, Kenneth H. Brink, Steven R. Ramp, and Ronald Schlitz. 1985. “The Nantucket Shoals Flux Experiment (NSFE79). Part I: A Basic Description of the Current and Temperature Variability.” Journal of Physical Oceanography 15 (6): 713–48. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1985)015<0713:TNSFEP>2.0.CO;2.
Bisack, K. D., and G. Magnusson. 2014. “Measuring the Economic Value of Increased Precision in Scientific Estimates of Marine Mammal Abundance and Bycatch.” North American Journal of Fisheries Management 34 (2): 311–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/02755947.2013.869281.
Blasiak, Robert, James L. Anderson, Peter Bridgewater, Ken Furuya, Benjamin S. Halpern, Hisashi Kurokura, Joji Morishita, Nobuyuki Yagi, and Akane Minohara. 2014. “Paradigms of Sustainable Ocean Management.” Marine Policy 48: 206–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2014.03.021.
Brown, Shandel Marie. 2015. “"We Have the Best Life There Ever Was": Linking Sense of Place and Adaptive Capacity in Nova Scotia’s Coastal Communities.” In Thesis, Masters in Environmental Affairs. University of Waterloo. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/9408.
Castelao, Renato, Scott Glenn, and Oscar Schofield. 2010. “Temperature, Salinity, and Density Variability in the Central Middle Atlantic Bight.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 115 (C10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC006082.
Castelao, Renato, Scott Glenn, Oscar Schofield, Robert Chant, John Wilkin, and Josh Kohut. 2008. “Seasonal Evolution of Hydrographic Fields in the Central Middle Atlantic Bight from Glider Observations.” Geophysical Research Letters 35 (3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032335.
Clay, Patricia M., and Julia Olson. 2007. “Defining Fishing Communities: Issues in Theory and Practice.” Napa Bulletin 28 (1): 27–42. https://doi.org/10.1525/napa.2007.28.1.27.
———. 2008. “DefiningFishing Communities: Vulnerability and the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act.” Human Ecology Review 15 (2): 143. https://www.humanecologyreview.org/pastissues/her152/clayolson.pdf.
Colburn, Lisa L., and Michael Jepson. 2012. “Social Indicators of Gentrification Pressure in Fishing Communities: A Context for Social Impact Assessment.” Coastal Management 40 (3): 289–300. https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2012.677635.
Colburn, Lisa L., Michael Jepson, Changhua Weng, Tarsila Seara, Jeremy Weiss, and Jonathan A. Hare. 2016. “Indicators of Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in Fishing Dependent Communities Along the Eastern and Gulf Coasts of the United States.” Marine Policy 74: 323–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.04.030.
Cortes-Vazquez, Jose A., and Morgan Zedalis. 2013. “Identity and Native Species Conservation: Similar Historical Ecologies from Idaho to Spain.” Human Ecology 41 (6): 937–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9570-3.
Das, Chhandita. 2013. “Northeast Trip Cost Data - Overview, Estimation, and Predictions.” NOAA Tehnical Memorandum NMFS_NE_227: 20.
———. 2014. “An Overview of the Annual Cost Survey Protocol and Results in the Northeastern Region (2007-2009).” NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NE-226: 34.
DePiper, Geret S., Sarah K. Gaichas, Sean M. Lucey, Patricia Pinto da Silva, M. Robin Anderson, Heather Breeze, Alida Bundy, et al. 2017. “Operationalizing Integrated Ecosystem Assessments Within a Multidisciplinary Team: Lessons Learned from a Worked Example.” ICES Journal of Marine Science 74 (8): 2076–86. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsx038.
Donatuto, Jamie, and Melissa R. Poe. 2015. “Evaluating Sense of Place as a Domain of Human Wellbeing for Puget Sound Restoration.” Final {Report}. Tacoma, WA: Puget Sound Institute. https://www.eopugetsound.org/sites/default/files/Donatuto%26Poe2015_Evaluating%20Sense%20of%20Place%20Final%20Report.pdf.
Donkersloot, Rachel. 2010. “The Politics of Place and Identity in an Irish Fishing Locale.” Journal of Maritime Studies 9 (2): 33–53. http://www.marecentre.nl/mast/documents/Mast2010_9.2_Donkersloot.pdf.
Everett, Sally, and Cara Aitchison. 2008. “The Role of Food Tourism in Sustaining Regional Identity: A Case Study of Cornwall, South West England.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism 16 (2): 150–67. https://doi.org/10.2167/jost696.0.
Färe, Rolf, James E. Kirkley, and John B. Walden. 2006. “Adjusting Technical Efficiency to Reflect Discarding: The Case of the U.S. Georges Bank Multi-Species Otter Trawl Fishery.” Fisheries Research 78 (2-3): 257–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2005.12.014.
Forsyth, Jacob Samuel Tse, Magdalena Andres, and Glen G. Gawarkiewicz. 2015. “Recent Accelerated Warming of the Continental Shelf Off New Jersey: Observations from the CMV Oleander Expendable Bathythermograph Line.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (3): 2370–84. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010516.
Fratantoni, Paula S., Tamara Holzwarth-Davis, and Maureen H. Taylor. 2015. Description of Oceanographic Conditions on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf During 2014. Northeast Fisheries Science Center Reference Document 15-21. US Dep. Commer., National Marine Fisheries Service. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/5047.
Gawarkiewicz, Glen G., Robert E. Todd, Albert J. Plueddemann, Magdalena Andres, and James P. Manning. 2012. “Direct Interaction Between the Gulf Stream and the Shelfbreak South of New England.” Scientific Reports 2 (August): 553. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00553.
Glenn, Scott, Robert Arnone, Trisha Bergmann, W. Paul Bissett, Michael Crowley, Jay Cullen, Joe Gryzmski, et al. 2004. “Biogeochemical Impact of Summertime Coastal Upwelling on the New Jersey Shelf.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 109 (C12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC002265.
Gong, D., J. T. Kohut, and S. M. Glenn. 2010. “Seasonal Climatology of Wind-Driven Circulation on the New Jersey Shelf.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 115 (C4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005520.
Gray, Steven A., Stefan Gray, Linda J. Cox, and Sarah Henly-Shepard. 2013. “Mental Modeler: A Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping Modeling Tool for Adaptive Environmental Management.” In, 965–73. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/HICSS.2013.399.
Halpern, Benjamin S, Catherine Longo, Darren Hardy, Karen L McLeod, Jameal F Samhouri, Steven K Katona, Kristin Kleisner, et al. 2012. “An Index to Assess the Health and Benefits of the Global Ocean.” Nature 488 (7413): 615–20. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11397.
Hess, Jeremy J., Josephine N. Malilay, and Alan J. Parkinson. 2008. “Climate Change: The Importance of Place.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 35 (5): 468–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.024.
Hoagland, P., and A. Meeks. 2000. The Demand for Whalewatching at Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary In: The Economic Contribution of Whalewatching to Regional Economies: Perspectives from Two National Marine Sanctuaries.” In NOAA Marine Sancuaries Conservation Series, 00–02.
Houghton, R. W., R. Schlitz, R. C. Beardsley, B. Butman, and J. L. Chamberlin. 1982. “Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool: Evolution of the Temperature Structure During Summer 1979.” J. Phys. Oceanogr.; (United States) 12:10 (October). https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1982)012<1019:TMABCP>2.0.CO;2.
Jepson, Michael, and Lisa L. Colburn. 2013. “Development of Social Indicators of Fishing Community Vulnerability and Resilience in the US Southeast and Northeast Regions.” NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO-129 (US Dept Commerce, 2013). http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/management/councils/training/2014/r_h3_fishing_community_vulnerability.pdf.
Khakzad, Sorna, and David Griffith. 2016. “The Role of Fishing Material Culture in Communities’ Sense of Place as an Added-Value in Management of Coastal Areas.” Journal of Marine and Island Cultures 5 (2): 95–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.imic.2016.09.002.
Klain, Sarah C., Terre A. Satterfield, and Kai M. A. Chan. 2014. “What Matters and Why? Ecosystem Services and Their Bundled Qualities.” Ecological Economics 107: 310–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.09.003.
Koehn, J. Zachary, Daniel R. Reineman, and John N. Kittinger. 2013. “Progress and Promise in Spatial Human Dimensions Research for Ecosystem-Based Ocean Planning.” Marine Policy 42: 31–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.01.015.
Lee, Min-Yang. 2010. “Economic Tradeoffs in the Gulf of Maine Ecosystem: Herring and Whale-Watching.” Marine Policy 34: 156–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2009.06.001.
———. 2014. “Hedonic Pricing of Atlantic Cod: Effects of Size, Freshness, and Gear.” Marine Resource Economics 29 (3). https://doi.org/10.1086/677769.
Lee, Min-Yang, Scott Steinback, and Kristy Wallmo. 2017. “Applying a Bioeconomic Model to Recreational Fisheries Management: Groundfish in the Northeast United States.” Marine Resource Economics 32 (2): 191–216. https://doi.org/10.1086/690676.
Lee, Min-Yang, and Eric M. Thunberg. 2013. “An Inverse Demand System for New England Groundfish: Welfare Analysis of the Transition to Catch Share Management.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95 (5). https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aat061.
Lentz, S. J. 2003. “A Climatology of Salty Intrusions over the Continental Shelf from Georges Bank to Cape Hatteras.” Journal of Geophysical Research 108 (C10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC001859.
———. 2017a. “Seasonal Warming of the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2): 941–54. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012201.
Link, J. S., C. T. Griswold, E. T. Methratta, and J. Gunnard, eds. 2006. Documentation for the Energy Modeling and Analysis eXercise (EMAX). Northeast Fish. Sci. Cent. Ref. Doc. 06-15. Northeast Fish. Sci. Cent. Ref. Doc. Woods Hole, MA: US Dep. Commer., National Marine Fisheries Service.
Link, Jason, William Overholtz, John O’Reilly, Jack Green, David Dow, Debra Palka, Chris Legault, et al. 2008. “The Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Energy Modeling and Analysis Exercise (EMAX): Ecological Network Model Development and Basic Ecosystem Metrics.” Journal of Marine Systems 74 (1–2): 453–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.03.007.
Lord, Fabienne. 2011. “Understanding Social Impacts by Using New Variables and a Causal Model Diagram in New England Fisheries.” Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 1: 59–68. https://doi.org/10.3152/146155111X12913679730476.
Matzarakis, A., and C. R. de Freitas, eds. 2001. “Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Climate, Tourism and Recreation.” In. Porto Carras, Greece.
McGoodwin, James R. 2001. “Understanding the Cultures of Fishing Communities: A Key to Fisheries Management and Food Security.” In. http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/y1290e/y1290e00.htm.
Miller, Timothy J., Jonathan A. Hare, and Larry A. Alade. 2016. “A State-Space Approach to Incorporating Environmental Effects on Recruitment in an Age-Structured Assessment Model with an Application to Southern New England Yellowtail Flounder.” Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 73 (8): 1261–70. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2015-0339.
Mountain, David G. 2003. “Variability in the Properties of Shelf Water in the Middle Atlantic Bight, 1977–1999.” Journal of Geophysical Research 108 (C1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JC001044.
———. 2012. “Labrador Slope Water Entering the Gulf of Maine—Response to the North Atlantic Oscillation.” Continental Shelf Research 47 (September): 150–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2012.07.008.
Mupparapu, Prashant, and Wendell S. Brown. 2002. “Role of Convection in Winter Mixed Layer Formation in the Gulf of Maine, February 1987.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 107 (C12): 22-1-22-18. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JC000116.
Norris-Raynbird, Carla. 2004. For Hire in the US Gulf of Mexico: A Typology of Offshore Charter and Party Boat Operations.” MAST (Maritime Studies) 1 (51 – 65). http://www.marecentre.nl/mast/documents/ArtikelCarlaNorris-Raynbird.pdf.
Oberg, Angela, Julia Flagg, Bonnie McCay, and Lisa L. Colburn. 2016. “Surviving Sandy: Identity and Cultural Resilience in a New Jersey Fishing Community.” In Taking Chances on the Coast After Hurricane Sandy, edited by Dan Van Abs and Karen O.’Neill. New Brunswick, NJ: The Rutgers University Press. muse.jhu.edu/book/45532.
Pauly, Daniel. 1997. “Putting Fisheries Management Back in Places.” Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 7 (1): 125–27.
Poe, Melissa R., Karma C. Norman, and Phillip S. Levin. 2014. “Cultural Dimensions of Socioecological Systems: Key Connections and Guiding Principles for Conservation in Coastal Environments.” Conservation Letters 7 (3): 166–75. https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/news/events/program_reviews/2016/documents/D1_PoeNormanLevin2014.pdf.
Pollnac, Richard B., Susan Abbott-Jamieson, Courtland Smith, Marc L. Miller, Patricia M. Clay, and Bryan Oles. 2006. “Toward a Model for Fisheries Social Impact Assessment.” Marine Fisheries Review 68: 1–4. http://aquaticcommons.org/866/1/Pollnac_Toward.pdf.
Potschin, Marion, and Roy Haines-Young. 2013. “Landscapes, Sustainability and the Place-Based Analysis of Ecosystem Services.” Landscape Ecology 28 (6): 1053–65. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-012-9756-x.
Reed, Matt, Paul Courtney, Julie Urquhart, and Natalie Ross. 2013. “Beyond Fish as Commodities: Understanding the Socio-Cultural Role of Inshore Fisheries in England.” Marine Policy 37: 62–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2012.04.009.
Scott, D., G McBoyle, and M. Schwartzentruber. 2004. “Climate Change and the Distribution of Climatic Resources for Tourism in North America.” Climate Research 27: 105–17. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr027105.
Seara, Tarsila, Patricia M. Clay, and Lisa L. Colburn. 2016. “Perceived Adaptive Capacity and Natural Disasters: A Fisheries Case Study.” Global Environmental Change 38: 49–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.006.
Shearman, R. Kipp, and Steven J. Lentz. 2009. “Long-Term Sea Surface Temperature Variability Along the U.S. East Coast.” Journal of Physical Oceanography 40 (5): 1004–17. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JPO4300.1.
Smith, Brian E., and Jason S. Link. 2010. The Trophic Dynamics of 50 Finfish and 2 Squid Species on the Northeast US Continental Shelf. NOAA Technichal Memorandum NMFS-NE-216. National Marine Fisheries Service, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1026. http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/publications/tm/tm216/.
Smith, Laurel A., Jason S. Link, Steven X. Cadrin, and Debra L. Palka. 2015. “Consumption by Marine Mammals on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.” Ecological Applications 25 (2): 373–89. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-1656.1.
Smith, Peter C. 1983. “The Mean and Seasonal Circulation Off Southwest Nova Scotia.” Journal of Physical Oceanography 13 (6): 1034–54. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1983)013<1034:TMASCO>2.0.CO;2.
Smith, Peter C., Robert W. Houghton, Richard G. Fairbanks, and David G. Mountain. 2001. “Interannual Variability of Boundary Fluxes and Water Mass Properties in the Gulf of Maine and on Georges Bank: 1993–1997.” Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, Coupled biological and physical studies of plankton populations on Georges Bank and related North Atlantic regions, 48 (1): 37–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(00)00081-3.
Smith, Peter C, Neal R Pettigrew, Philip Yeats, David W Townsend, and Guoqi Han. 2012. “Regime Shift in the Gulf of Maine.” American Fisheries Society Symposium 79: 185–203.
St Martin, Kevin. 2001. “Making Space for Community Resource Management in Fisheries.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 91 (1): 122–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/0004-5608.00236.
Steinback, Scott, and Eric Thunberg. 2006. “Northeast Regional Commercial Fishing Input-Output Model.” NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NE-188: 54. https://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/publications/tm/tm188/tm188.pdf.
Sullivan, Mark C., Robert K. Cowen, and Brian P. Steves. 2005. “Evidence for Atmosphere-Ocean Forcing of Yellowtail Flounder (Limanda Ferruginea) Recruitment in the Middle Atlantic Bight.” Fisheries Oceanography 14 (5): 386–99. http://www.academia.edu/10197997/Evidence_for_atmosphere-ocean_forcing_of_yellowtail_flounder_Limanda_ferruginea_recruitment_in_the_Middle_Atlantic_Bight.
Townsend, David W, Andrew C Thomas, Lawrence M Mayer, Maura A Thomas, and John A Qunilan. 2006. “Oceanography of the Northwest Atlantic Continental Shelf (1,W).” In The Sea, Volume 14A, edited by Allan R Robinson and Kenneth H Brink, 119–68. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/bbdb/3136f6ab34fd405225fde03696feee70b36b.pdf.
Urquhart, Julie, and Tim Acott. 2013. “Constructing The Stade: Fishers’ and Non-Fishers’ Identity and Place Attachment in Hastings, South-East England.” Marine Policy 37: 45–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2012.04.004.
Walden, John B., James E. Kirkley, Rolf Färe, and Philip Logan. 2012. “Productivity Change Under an Individual Transferable Quota Management System.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 94 (4): 913–28. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas025.
Waring, Gordon T., Elizabeth Josephson, Katherine Maze-Foley, and Patricia E. Rosel, eds. 2015. US Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Marine Mammal Stock Assessments – 2014., Type = NOAA Technical Memorandom. 231. National Marine Fisheries Service. https://doi.org/10.7289/V5TQ5ZH0.
Wynveen, Christopher J., Gerard T. Kyle, and Stephen G. Sutton. 2012. “Natural Area Visitors’ Place Meaning and Place Attachment Ascribed to a Marine Setting.” Journal of Environmental Psychology 32 (4): 287–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2012.05.001.
Zhang, Weifeng G., and Glen G. Gawarkiewicz. 2015. “Dynamics of the Direct Intrusion of Gulf Stream Ring Water onto the Mid-Atlantic Bight Shelf.” Geophysical Research Letters 42 (18): 7687–95. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065530.