+ - 0:00:00
Notes for current slide
Notes for next slide

State of the Ecosystem
Mid-Atlantic 2025

MAFMC SSC
18 March 2025

Sarah Gaichas, lead editor, NEFSC

1 / 59

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley et al., 2020)

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

2 / 59

Ecosystem reporting at different levels of organization

Ecosystem Level → SOE

NE shelf map

Stock Level → ESP

herring cons mod

Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

3 / 59

Using ecosystem information at the stock level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model

Bluefish ESP conceptual model

Images courtesy ASFC, and Abigail Tyrell and Emily Liljestrand, NEFSC

4 / 59

Using ecosystem information at the stock level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model

Bluefish ESP conceptual model

Images courtesy ASFC, and Abigail Tyrell and Emily Liljestrand, NEFSC

bottom temp in BSB assessmentGOA cod risk assessment

ESP decisions

4 / 59

State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2024 structure for 2025

2025 Report Structure

  1. Graphical summary
    • Page 1 report card re: objectives →
    • Page 2 risk summary bullets
    • Page 3 2024 snapshot
  2. Performance relative to management objectives
  3. Risks to meeting management objectives
    • Climate and Ecosystem risks
    • Offshore wind development
  4. 2024 Highlights

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary tableState of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bulletsState of the Ecosystem page 3 highlights

5 / 59

Updated Objectives and Risks tables aligning with indicators

6 / 59

Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

  • Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways.
  • Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to regime shifts — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.
  • Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

7 / 59

State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

A glossary of terms (2021 Memo 5), detailed technical methods documentation and indicator data are available online.

Key to figures

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or < 30 years

Grey background = last 10 years

8 / 59

2025 Changes: Trend assessment

Andy's arfit R package integrated into ecodata

Tests for significant trend, null hypothesis is mean with autocorrelation (no trend)

Apply to most recent 10 years of each dataset



Decision based on how strange some of them looked

Has implications for risk assessment scoring

9 / 59

Mid Atlantic State of the Ecosystem Summary 2025:

Performance relative to management objectives

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits no trend icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort increasing arrow icon above average icon icon; Effort diversity decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Stability: Fishery not stable; Ecological not stable

Social and cultural:

  • Fishing engagement and social vulnerability status by community
  • Revenue climate vulnerability no trend icon, majority high risk

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations (NARW) decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon
10 / 59

State of the Ecosystem Summary 2025:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate: risks to managing spatially, managing seasonally, and catch specification

  • Fish and protected species distribution shifts
  • Changing spawning and migration timing
  • Multiple stocks with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development

  • Current revenue in proposed areas
    • 1-46% by Mid-Atlantic port
    • 2-16% by MAFMC managed species
  • Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
11 / 59

State of the Ecosystem Summary 2025: 2024 Highlights

Notable 2024 events and conditions

  • 2024 warmest year on record globally. Again.

  • BUT

  • Cooler conditions across the coast
  • Well established Mid Atlantic Cold Pool
  • Multiple summer upwelling events off NJ
  • Extreme ocean acidification measured off NJ
  • Many fishery observations of different spatial and timing patterns, changed abundance
  • Good scallop recruitment in Nantucket lightship
  • More red drum in Chesapeake Bay
  • Arctic copepods in GOM
  • Cocolithophore bloom off NY
  • Large whale aggregations

We welcome your observations! northeast.ecosystem.highlights@noaa.gov

12 / 59

SSC and Council Requests from 2024 and Prioritization

13 / 59

2025 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo

14 / 59

Priority categories in the Request Memo

The memo is organized into categories by topic, and categories are listed in descending order of overall (2022) priority based on approximate weighting within the category.

Therefore, a range of priority may be applied to individual requests within a category even though the entire category has an overall priority.

The subgroup agreed to keep this group priority ranking

SSC: Link to current memo
SSC: Link to overview

  • System level thresholds/reference points: highest, much methods work in progress

  • Management: high, resource limited

  • Short term forecasts: high, CEFI should help

  • Regime shifts: high, need system level framework

  • Multiple system drivers: moderate-high, many unranked requests

  • Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points: moderate, many in progress

  • Stock level indicators: moderate, ESPs better venue

  • SOE administration: unranked

15 / 59

System level thresholds/reference points Includes requests to develop analytical methods that can be applied across all indicator types and operationalized for management advice. Much of this high priority methodological work is in progress. Management Includes analyses related to management performance. Work on this category is resource limited. Short term forecasts Includes requests for biological and environmental forecasts. These forecasts may be forthcoming from CEFI products once they are tested. Regime shifts Many analyses have been conducted and are in progress for individual ecosystem components, but a unifying framework with consistent methods is needed for the SOE. Multiple system drivers This category has the most requests. Most unranked requests from 2023 are in this category. Prioritization within this category is sorely needed. Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points Most of these requests are in progress. Stock level indicators Requests for this information may be more appropriately directed to stock specific ecosystem products such as Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs).

Discussion of 2023 and 2024 requests (1 of 2)

These newer requests were ranked highest within each category

  • System level thresholds/reference points: highest

    • maintain high priority on trend/threshold evaluation
    • express indicators relative to biological thresholds
    • standardize uncertainty language (IPCC)
    • longer term: simulation analysis of thresholds

  • Management: high

    • include indicators for risk policy/risk assessment processes

  • Short term forecasts: high

    • include CEFI projections

  • Regime shifts: high

    • instead characterize current conditions in context of expected short term change

SSC: link to full list, comments welcome!

16 / 59

Discussion of 2023 and 2024 requests (2 of 2)

These newer requests were ranked highest within each category

  • Multiple system drivers: moderate-high

    • profits vs revenue: provide incomplete net revenue and index of costs
    • clarify objectives and terminology for fishing community engagement/reliance
      • time series of community indicators
      • social and economic linkages to climate
      • consider appropriate scale for indicators

  • Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points: moderate

    • not specifically prioritized
    • include more aggregations for biomass and landings (Council-managed, status)

  • Stock level indicators: moderate, ESPs

    • not specifically prioritized
    • cross reference ESP products where appropriate

SSC: link to full list, comments welcome!

17 / 59

2025 Performance relative to management objectives

Fishing icon made by EDAB       Fishing industry icon made by EDAB       Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB       Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB       Protected species icon made by EDAB

18 / 59

Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon   Risk elements: ComFood and RecFood, unchanged

Indicators: Commercial landings, climate risk

Mid-Atlantic region total climate vulnerability of commercial landings (sum of Mid-Atlantic port landings weighted by species climate vulnerability from Hare et al. 2016).

Indicators: Recreational harvest

Multiple potential drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions, and environmental change.

19 / 59

The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change.

Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC?   Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl

Indicator: Stock status

Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target

Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role

20 / 59

Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC.

Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species.

Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production Drivers

Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends

Key: Black = NEFSC survey;

Red = NEAMAP survey

  • Declining aggregate planktivores, benthos?

  • Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor:

  • climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions
  • ecosystem composition and production changes
  • fishing engagement
21 / 59

Because stock status is mostly acceptable, ABCs don't appear to be constraining for many stocks, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, the decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as quotas are not binding for these species.

Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits no trend icon below average icon icon   Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

Indicator: Commercial Revenue

Mid-Atlantic region total climate vulnerability of commercial revenue (sum of Mid-Atlantic port revenue weighted by species climate vulnerability from Hare et al. 2016).

Recent change driven by benthos
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:

  • Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification.
  • pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth

Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices

22 / 59

Recent change driven by benthos
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:

  • Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification.
  • pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth

SSC REQUEST: Two viable proxies for profits explored

  • Net Revenue

    • Federally permitted vessels only

  • Profitability Ratio

    • Numerator = Total Gross Revenue
    • Denominator = Average cost on federally permitted trips
23 / 59

Cost coverage

  • Only available for federally permitted trips
    • Different trend in gross revenue for Non-federally permitted trips
    • Corresponds to differences in production/cost functions

24 / 59

Net Revenue for Federally Permitted Trips

  • Trends follow Gross Revenue

25 / 59

Profitability

  • Gross Revenue, Average Cost, Revenue/Cost ratio

26 / 59

Cointegration Analysis

  • SSC request
  • Do gross revenues move with diesel costs?
27 / 59

Cointegration Analysis

  • Unit Root tests confirmed by regression of gross revenue on diesel price
28 / 59

Summing Up

  • Net Revenue standard proxy for profits

    • Only covers 50 - 75% of Mid-Atlantic trip revenue

  • Profitability indices possible

    • Tenuous assumption that federally permitted trip costs good representation for non-federally permitted costs

  • No cointegration between gross revenue and diesel prices on non-federally permitted trips

29 / 59

SSC recommendation?

Proposal 1. A combination of Gross Revenue from all trips in the Mid-Atlantic region and Net Revenue estimates for federally-permitted vessels.

Proposal 2. Revenue, Cost, and Profitability Indices

30 / 59

Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities increasing arrow icon above average icon icon; decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon Risk elements: RecValue, RecDiv

Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity

Implications

  • Adding 2023 data, recreational effort (angler trips) retains the long term increase.

  • The increasing long term trend changed the risk category for the RecValue element back to low-moderate (previously ranked low risk).

  • New risk element: Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.

  • Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.

31 / 59

Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability: Not Stable   Risk elements: FleetDiv and FishRes1

Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

Fishery Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity

32 / 59

Objective: Mid Atlantic Ecological Stability: Not Stable

Ecological Indicators: PP and zooplankton

Ecological Indicators: fish richness and traits

Fish community functional traits in the Mid Atlantic Bight based on Fall (red) and Spring (blue) survey data. Length at maturity for the full finfish community has increased in spring (orange line), but decreased in fall (purple lines)

33 / 59

While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring.

Community Social and Climate Vulnerability   Risk element: Social

Indicators: Commercial fishery engagement, social vulnerability, revenue climate vulnerability

34 / 59

Community Social and Climate Vulnerability   Risk element: Social

Indicators: Commercial fishery revenue climate vulnerability

The Community Climate Change Risk Indicators are calculated by multiplying the percent contribution of species to the total value landed in a community by their respective Total Vulnerability scores (based on NOAA’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment) for different sensitivity and exposure factors and then summing the resulting values by year.

CCCVR map total vulnerability

35 / 59

Community Social and Climate Vulnerability   Risk element: Social

Indicators: Recreational fishery engagement, social vulnerability

Recreational engagement and population relative engagement with labels for the top recreationally engaged fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic.

36 / 59

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change.

Objectives: Coastwide Protected species Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon

Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch

Implications:

  • Currently meeting objectives, but uncertainty in gray seal estimates

  • Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 7 low-mod, 2 mod-high risk

  • The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

  • Gray seal among the highest bycatch of any U.S. marine mammal. The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).

37 / 59

Objectives: Coastwide Protected species Recover endangered populations decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

Implications:

  • Signs the adult population stabilized 2020-2023

  • Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

  • Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

  • Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species.

38 / 59

2025 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate icon made by EDAB       Wind icon made by EDAB

Hydrography icon made by EDAB       Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB       Forage fish icon made by EDAB       Apex predators icon made by EDAB       Other human uses icon made by EDAB

39 / 59

Revised Risks: Climate and Ecosystem Change

Risks to Managing Spatially

Potential Impacts: Spatial misallocation of quotas within and across jurisdictions, leading to unmet quotas and/or increased discards. Specification of gear management areas may not utilize quotas and minimize bycatch.

Risks to Managing Seasonally

Potential Impacts: Spawning closures are less effective if peak spawning occurs outside the seasonal closure. Seasonal openings of exemption areas may be inconsistent with species presence. Seasonal quota allocations may be misaligned with availability.

Risks to Setting Catch Limits

Potential Impacts: Changes in environmental conditions can affect stock reference points and short-term stock projections. When productivity changes are not accounted for, they can lead to misspecified quotas and rebuilding plans.

40 / 59

Risks to Managing Spatially: Coastwide

Indicators: Fish distribution shifts

Cetacean distribution shifts

41 / 59

Risks to Managing Spatially: Coastwide

Drivers: Forage shifts, pelagic and benthic

Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for 20 forage fish species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, with increasing trend (orange) for fall eastward and northward center of gravity.

Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for macrobenthos species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf

Drivers: changing ocean habitat

Northeast US annual sea surface temperature (SST, black), with increasing trend (orange).

Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall (black). Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position, NO LONGER HAS increasing trend.

Cold pool temperature and spatial extent

Seasonal cold pool mean temperature (left) and spatial extent index (right), based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles), with declining trends (purple).
42 / 59

New Spatial Shift Indicators: Benthos, Zooplankton

Benthos center of gravity from fish stomachs Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for macrobenthos species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf

Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for megabenthos species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf

Copepods center of gravity from ECOMON Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for small copepod species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf

Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for large copepod species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf

43 / 59

Risks to Managing Spatially: Coastwide

Future considerations

Distribution shifts caused by changes in thermal habitat and ocean circulation are likely to continue as long as long-term trends persist. Episodic and short-term events (see 2024 Highlights) may increase variability in the trends, however species distributions are unlikely to reverse to historical ranges in the short term. Increased mechanistic understanding of distribution drivers is needed to better understand future distribution shifts: species with high mobility or short lifespans react differently from immobile or long lived species.

Long-term oceanographic projections forecast a temporary pause in warming over the next decade due to internal variability in circulation and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream. Near-term forecasts are being evaluated to determine how well they are able to predict episodic and anomalous events that are outside of the long-term patterns.

Adapting management to changing stock distributions and dynamic ocean processes will require continued monitoring of populations in space and evaluating management measures against a range of possible future spatial distributions. Processes like the East Coast Climate Scenario Planning, and subsequent formation of the East Coast Climate Coordination Group, can help coordinate management.

44 / 59

(Koul et al., 2024)

Risks to Managing Seasonally: Coastwide

Indicators: spawning timing, migration change

Percent resting stage (non-spawning) mature female fish (black) with significant increases (orange) and decreases (purple) from two haddock and three yellowtail flounder stocks: CC = Cape Cod Gulf of Maine, GOM = Gulf of Maine, GB = Georges Bank, SNE = Southern New England.

  • Recreational tuna fisheries 50 days earlier in the year in 2019 compared to 2002.
  • In Cape Cod Bay, peak spring habitat use by right and humpback whales has shifted 18-19 days later over time.
  • Baseline information on large whale seasonal presence has been collected.
45 / 59

Risks to Managing Seasonally: Mid-Atlantic

Drivers: thermal transition, habitat persistence, bloom timing

Ocean summer length: the annual total number of days between the spring thermal transition date and the fall thermal transition date (black), with an increasing trend (orange).

Cold pool seasonal persistence

Cold pool persistence index based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles).

Bloom timing

Monthly median chlorophyll a concentration in the MAB (black) with significant increase in January (orange line) and decrease in September (purple line).

Future considerations

  • Management actions that rely on effective alignment of fisheries availability and biological processes should continue to evaluate whether prior assumptions on seasonal timings still hold.

  • New indicators should be developed to monitor timing shifts for stocks.

46 / 59

Risks to Setting Catch Limits: Mid-Atlantic

Indicators: fish productivity and condition

Fish productivity measures. Left: Small fish per large fish survey biomass anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Right: assessment recruitment per spawning stock biomass anomaly for stocks mainly in the Mid-Atlantic. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line, drawn across all years with the same number of stocks analyzed.

Condition factor for fish species in the MAB based on fall NEFSC bottom trawl survey data. MAB data are missing for 2017 due to survey delays, and no survey was conducted in 2020.

47 / 59

(Perretti et al., 2017)

Risks to Setting Catch Limits: Mid Atlantic Drivers

Drivers: Forage Quality and Abundance

Forage fish energy density mean and standard deviation by season and year, compared with 1980s (solid line) and 1990s (dashed line) values.

Forage fish index in the MAB for spring (blue) and fall (red) surveys, with a decline (purple) in fall. Index values are relative to the maximum observation within a region across surveys.

New indicators: benthos abundance Changes in spring (blue) and fall (red) benthos abundance in the MAB for megabenthos (left) and macrobenthos (right).

48 / 59

Risks to Setting Catch Limits: Mid Atlantic Drivers

Drivers: Low trophic levels

Total areal annual primary production for the MAB. The dashed line represents the long-term (1998-2024) annual mean.

Changes in zooplankton abundance in the MAB for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians.

49 / 59

Risks to Setting Catch Limits: Coastwide

Drivers: Environmental
2024 Thermal habitat area by depth

50 / 59

Risks to Setting Catch Limits: Coastwide

Drivers: Environmental Potential Ocean Acidification Impacts: Scallops and Longfin squid

Locations where bottom aragonite saturation state (`\(\Omega_{Arag}\)`; summer only: June-August) were at or below the laboratory-derived sensitivity level for Atlantic sea scallop (left panel) and longfin squid (right panel) for the time periods 2007-2022 (dark cyan), 2023 only (magenta) and 2024 only (cyan). Gray circles indicate locations where bottom `\(\Omega_{Arag}\)` values were above the species specific sensitivity values.

Drivers: Predation
Seals increasing, mix of population status for HMS

51 / 59

Risks to Setting Catch Limits

Future considerations

  • Processes that control fish productivity and mortality are dynamic, complex, and are the result of the interactions between multiple changing system drivers.
  • There is a real risk that short-term predictions in assessments and rebuilding plans that assume unchanging underlying conditions will not be as effective, given the observed change documented in the prior sections in both ecological and environmental processes.
  • Assumptions for species’ growth, reproduction, and natural mortality should continue to be evaluated for individual species.
  • With observations of system-wide productivity shifts of multiple managed stocks, more research is needed to determine whether regime shifts or ecosystem reorganization are occurring, and how this should be incorporated into management.
52 / 59

Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic   Elements: OSW1 and OSW2

Indicators: fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: New England ports relying on Mid-Atlantic managed species

53 / 59

Risks: Offshore Wind Development: Implications

Implications:

  • Current plans for buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region.
  • Lease areas overlap with North Atlantic right whale habitat. Development may alter local oceanography and prey availability, increase vessel strike risk, and result in pile driving noise impacts.

54 / 59

2024 Highlights: Methods

Observations solicited from:

  • SOE contributors
  • NEFSC colleagues
  • Academic colleagues
  • Management partners
  • Fishing industry

We welcome your observations! northeast.ecosystem.highlights@noaa.gov

Observations included if:

  • Record high or low observations
  • Different from recent conditions
  • Reported by multiple sources
  • Affecting fishery operations
  • Newsworthy

Not exhaustive list; Full impacts remain to be seen

Reprinted from Cape Cod Commercial Fisherman's Alliance February 2025 Newsletter →

55 / 59

2024 Highlights: generally cooler, fresher Northeast Shelf

February 2024 sea surface temperature difference compared to the February 2000-2020 long-term mean from the NOAA Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Ocean (ACSPO) Super-collated SST.

Globally, 2024 warmest year on record (above previous record 2023)

BUT, nearly all NE shelf seasonal surface and bottom temperatures back to longer term average

2023-2024 data suggest more Labrador slope water into the GOM (Record et al., 2024)

The proportion of Warm Slope Water (WSW) and Labrador Slope Water (LSW) enter the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast Channel. The orange and teal dashed lines represent the long-term proportion averages for the WSW and LSW, respectively.

Linked to well-developed 2024 Mid Atlantic Cold Pool

56 / 59

2024 Highlights

Locations where bottom aragonite saturation state (`\(\Omega_{Arag}\)`; summer only: June-August) were at or below the laboratory-derived sensitivity level for Atlantic sea scallop (left panel) and longfin squid (right panel) for the time periods 2007-2022 (dark cyan), 2023 only (magenta) and 2024 only (cyan). Gray circles indicate locations where bottom `\(\Omega_{Arag}\)` values were above the species specific sensitivity values..

Extreme observation of ocean acidification risk off NJ

Multiple summer upwelling events off NJ

Unusual timing, location, abundance:

  • Fishery observations
    • Delayed migration of longfin squid, black sea bass, haddock
    • Unusual locations for pollock, bluefin tuna, Atlantic mackerel, longfin squid, bluefish, and bonito
    • Local abundance of Atlantic mackerel
    • Record catches of red drum in Chesapeake Bay
  • Good scallop recruitment in Nantucket lightship
  • Arctic copepods in GOM
  • Cocolithophore bloom off NY
  • Large whale aggregations

An OLCI Sentinel 3A true color image with enhanced contrast captured on July 2, 2024. Coccolithophores shed their coccolith plates during the later stages of the bloom cycle, which results in the milky turquoise water color (Image credit: NOAA STAR, OCView and Ocean Color Science Team).

57 / 59

THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 88 contributors from 20+ institutions

Andrew Applegate (NEFMC)
Kimberly Bastille
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA)
Andy Beet
Brandon Beltz
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Joseph Caracappa
Samuel Chavez-Rosales
Baoshan Chen (Stony Brook University)
Zhuomin Chen (UConn)
Doug Christel (GARFO)
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Art Degaetano (Cornell U)
Geret DePiper
Bart DiFiore (GMRI)
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Marjy Friedrichs (VIMS)
Sarah Gaichas
Ben Galuardi (GAFRO)
Avijit Gangopadhyay (SMAST UMass Dartmouth)
James Gartland (VIMS)
Lori Garzio (Rutgers University)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (WHOI)
Laura Gruenburg
Sean Hardison
Dvora Hart
Cliff Hutt (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Kimberly Hyde
John Kocik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Scott Large
Gabe Larouche (Cornell U)
Daniel Linden
Andrew Lipsky
Sean Lucey (RWE)
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Chris Melrose
Anna Mercer
Shannon Meseck
Ryan Morse
Ray Mroch (SEFSC)
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)
Robert Murphy
Kimberly Murray
NEFSC staff
David Moe Nelson (NCCOS)
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Debi Palka
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR)
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Charles Perretti
Kristin Precoda
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Jeffrey Runge (U Maine)
Grace Saba (Rutgers University)
Vincent Saba
Sarah Salois
Chris Schillaci (GARFO)
Amy Schueller (SEFSC)
Teresa Schwemmer (URI)
Tarsila Seara
Dave Secor (CBL)
Emily Slesinger
Angela Silva
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST)
Talya tenBrink (GARFO)
Abigail Tyrell
Rebecca Van Hoeck
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Ron Vogel (University of Maryland Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Sarah Weisberg
Changhua Weng
Dave Wilcox (VIMS)
Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM)
Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources)
Mark Wuenschel
Qian Zhang (U Maryland)
58 / 59

References

Bastille, K. et al. (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

DePiper, G. S. et al. (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsx038. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701 (visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

Koul, V. et al. (2024). "A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade". En. In: Geophysical Research Letters 51.17. _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024GL110946, p. e2024GL110946. ISSN: 1944-8007. DOI: 10.1029/2024GL110946. URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2024GL110946 (visited on Feb. 11, 2025).

Muffley, B. et al. (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

Perretti, C. et al. (2017). "Regime shifts in fish recruitment on the Northeast US Continental Shelf". En. In: Marine Ecology Progress Series 574, pp. 1-11. ISSN: 0171-8630, 1616-1599. DOI: 10.3354/meps12183. URL: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/ (visited on Feb. 10, 2022).

Record, N. R. et al. (2024). "Early Warning of a Cold Wave in the Gulf of Maine". In: Oceanography 37.3, pp. 6-9. DOI: 10.5670/oceanog.2024.506. URL: https://tos.org/oceanography/article/early-warning-of-a-cold-wave-in-the-gulf-of-maine (visited on Mar. 04, 2025).

Additional resources

59 / 59

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley et al., 2020)

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

2 / 59
Paused

Help

Keyboard shortcuts

↑, ←, Pg Up, k Go to previous slide
↓, →, Pg Dn, Space, j Go to next slide
Home Go to first slide
End Go to last slide
Number + Return Go to specific slide
b / m / f Toggle blackout / mirrored / fullscreen mode
c Clone slideshow
p Toggle presenter mode
t Restart the presentation timer
?, h Toggle this help
Esc Back to slideshow