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State of the Ecosystem
NEFSC/GARFO

23 February 2021

Kimberly Bastille

Many thanks to:
Sarah Gaichas, Sean Lucey, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large,
and all SOE contributors

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Presentation Overview






  • What is the State of the Ecosystem report

  • Highlights from the 2021 reports

  • Open data science and future product development

SOE cover page

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Integrated Ecosystem Assessment


IEA Approach

  • Supports shift to ecosystem based management

  • Iterative

  • Collaborative

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley, et al., 2020)

SOE logo

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting: Context for busy people

"So what?" --John Boreman, September 2016

  1. Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives

  2. Synthesis across indicators for big picture

  3. Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report

  4. Relatively short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text

  5. Emphasis on reproducibility

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In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model Many indicators presented at WGNARS, used in larger Ecosystem Status reports Shorter, fishery specific State of the Ecosystem (SOE) report with conceptual models prototyped based on California Current reporting Feedback from fishery managers redesigned reporting to align with objectives outlined by WGNARS

State of the Ecosystem - Document Orientation

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

This year, we mapped trawl survey strata to Ecological Production Units (EPUs)

More information on EPUs
More information on survey data

Key to figures

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or too short

Grey background = last 10 years

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State of the Ecosystem Report Structure

2021 Report

  1. Summary pages

    • summary table
    • possible risks
    • synthesis themes

  2. Performance relative to management objectives

    • ------------------------------------>

  3. Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

    • Climate
    • Wind

Ecosystem-scale objectives

Objective Categories Indicators reported here
Provisioning/Cultural
Seafood Production Landings by feeding guild
Commercial Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Days fished; recreational catch
Social & Cultural Engagement, Reliance and Social Vulnerability
Supporting/Regulating
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and species)
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, Zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
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Ecosystem synthesis themes for 2021

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

  • Multiple drivers - Societal, biological, physical, and chemical factors that influence the marine ecosystems
  • Regime shifts - large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem
  • Ecosystem Reorganization - New way humans and other species respond to regime shift e.g. Tropicalization

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2021 Report: Summary with visualizations (Draft)

summary table

summary risks

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Objective: Seafood production

Mid-Atlantic - Landings

  • Surfclams/Ocean quahogs driving decline
  • Likely market driven

Black line = total landings and red line = total landings from council-managed species

  • Multiple Drivers of recreational decline

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Objective: Commercial Profits

New England - Revenue and Bennet

  • Driven by single species.

  • GB: High revenue caused by high volume/price from scallops.

  • GB: Fluctuations associated with rotational management areas.

  • GOM: Total regional revenue high due to high lobster prices, despite lower volume.

Black line = total revenue and red line = total revenue from council-managed species

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Objective: Recreation

Mid-Atlantic - Recreational effort and diversity

  • Effort near long-term average.

  • Fleet diversity decreasing due to a shift away from party/charter to shore-based fishing.

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Objective: Stability

New England - Fisheries and Ecological Diversity

  • Commercial fleet diversity indicates a shift toward reliance on fewer species, as noted under revenue.

  • Overall indicators suggest stability but several metrics are increasing and should be monitored as warning signs for potential regime shift or ecosystem restructuring.

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Objective: Social & Cultural

Mid-Atlantic - Recreational and Commercial engagement, reliance, and social vulnerability

  • Highlighted communities vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns.
  • May have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
  • May also be vulnerable to environmental justice issues.

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Objective: Protected Species

Shelfwide - Species bycatch

  • Shifts in population distribution combined with fishery shifts
  • Population increase for seals

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Objective: Protected Species

Shelfwide - Endangered species abundance

  • NARW combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability
  • Unusual mortality events for 3 large whale species, harbor and gray seals

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Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - Climate

  • Gulf stream continues to push further north.

  • Little to no Labrador Slope Water entering the Gulf of Maine.

  • Bottom temp continues to increase in all regions.

Black line = in situ bottom temp and red line = GLORYS bottom temp

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Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - Climate

  • Surfclams and ocean quahogs sensitive to warming and ocean acidifcation
  • Acidification in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, levels affecting surf clam growth.

img: OA

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Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - Climate

  • Frequent marine heatwaves occurred, with Georges Bank experiencing the warmest event on record at 4.3 degrees above average.

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Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - Climate

ches bay temp

  • Blue Crabs - reduced overwintering mortality
  • Striped Bass - low recruitment success
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Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - Climate

  • Primary production continues to be high. Years with large fall phytoplankton blooms, such as 2020, have been linked to large haddock recruitment events on Georges Bank.
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Risks to Meeting fishery management objectives - Wind

Survey wind area

  • More than 20 offshore wind development projects proposed.

  • Offshore wind areas may cover more than 1.7 million acres by 2030.

  • Scientific surveys collecting data for ocean and ecosystem conditions, fish, and protected species will be altered, potentially increasing uncertainty for management decision-making.

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Risks to Meeting fishery management objectives - Wind

  • If all sites are developed, 2-24% of total average revenue could be displaced for major Mid-Atlantic species in lease areas.
  • Displaced fishing effort can alter fishing methods, which can in turn change habitat, species (managed and protected), and fleet interactions.
  • Right whales may be displaced, and altered local oceanography could affect distribution of their zooplankton prey.
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SOE - Timeline

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SOE Workflow - Focus on open science

SOE product ecosystem

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Indicator Catalog

SOE product ecosystem

  • Example of open data science tools

  • Collate the indicator information

  • Provide place for further explanation and context

  • Starting point for other ecosystem reporting products

  • Link to get involved

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Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 institutions

Andy Beet
Kimberly Bastille
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Doug Christel (GARFO)
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Geret DePiper
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Sarah Gaichas
Avijit Ben Galuardi (GARFO)
Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
John Kosik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Scott Large
Andrew Lipsky
Sean Lucey

Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Chris Melrose
Shannon Meseck
Ryan Morse
Kimberly Murray
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Charles Perretti
Grace Saba (Rutgers)
Vincent Saba
Chris Schillaci (GARFO)
Angela Silva
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)
Laurel Smith
Talya tenBrink (GARFO)
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Changhua Weng
Mark Wuenschel.

NOAA Fisheries IEA logo

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Additional resources

SOE logo

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Presentation Overview






  • What is the State of the Ecosystem report

  • Highlights from the 2021 reports

  • Open data science and future product development

SOE cover page

2 / 28
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