State of the Ecosystem:2020 OverviewKimberly Bastille1,2, Sean Lucey1, Sarah Gaichas1, 
 Geret DePiper1, Kimberly Hyde1, and Scott Large1 
 Northeast Fisheries Science Center1 
 Integrated Statistics21 / 27

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

IEA Approach

Supports shift to ecosystem based management
Iterative
Collaborative

The IEA Loop¹ IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting

Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives
Synthesis across indicators for big picture
Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report
Short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text
Emphasis on reproducibility

relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives

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Two page summary with visualizations

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets

State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic

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Document orientation

NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

Acronym	Definition
SOE	State of the Ecosystem
FMC	Fisheries Management Council
MA	Mid-Atlantic
NE	New England
GOM	Gulf of Maine
GB	Georges Bank
MAB	Mid-Atlantic Bight

Mapping trawl survey strata to Ecological Production Units (EPUs)

More information on EPUs
More information on survey data

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Commercial fisheries and ecosystem productivity

Primary Production Required to support landings - Fraction of primary production used by fisheries

Both MA and NE declining since 2000

Many assumptions to explore

MAB Species Compositon species included in 80% of landings in the Mid Atlantic

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Commercial fisheries engagement, landings, revenue

Fewer highly engaged Mid-Atlantic communities; engagement scores for medium-highly engaged communities decreasing

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Recreational fishing in the Mid-Atlantic

Lowest recreational landings recorded in 2018--why?

Effort trend similar to previous reports

Significant decrease in recreational fleet diversity

Splitting out SAFMC, ASFMC removed downward catch diversity trend

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Commercial fisheries: Revenue

Total Revenue in both NE regions is up
Largely dependent on single species
Fluctuations on Georges Bank associated with rotational management (Scallops)

Georges Bank

Gulf of Maine

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Fish stock status - Mid-Atlantic

Change from 2019: bluefish biomass below threshold

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Fish stock status - New England

Very high Gulf of Maine haddock biomass

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Other ocean uses: wind energy fish habitat overlap

	Existing - North		Proposed - North		Existing - Mid		Proposed - Mid		Existing - South
Season	Species	Trend	Species	Trend	Species	Trend	Species	Trend	Species	Trend
Spring	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Atlantic Herring		Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Atlantic Herring	` $\searrow$ `	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Atlantic Herring	` $\searrow$ `	Atlantic Herring	` $\searrow$ `	Longfin Squid	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Winter Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Alewife	` $\searrow$ `	Clearnose Skate	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\nearrow$ `	Alewife	` $\searrow$ `	Winter Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Silver Hake	` $\nearrow$ `	Spotted Hake	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\nearrow$ `	Longfin Squid	` $\searrow$ `
Fall	Longfin Squid	` $\nearrow$ `	Fourspot Flounder		Longfin Squid	` $\nearrow$ `	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Northern Searobin	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\searrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Clearnose Skate	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Winter Flounder	` $\searrow$ `	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Smooth Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Sea Scallop	` $\nearrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Spiny Dogfish	` $\searrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\searrow$ `	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Fourspot Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish/Spotted Hake	` $\nearrow$ `

Map of existing and proposed wind lease areas

Fishery overlap to be added

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New information on forage fish energy density (ED)

Forage fish energy content varies seasonally and annually

Atlantic herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s

	Spring 2017		Fall 2017		Spring 2018		Fall 2018		Total		1980s	1990s
Species	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED	ED (SD)
Alewife	6.84 (1.62)	128	8.12 (1.46)	50	6.45 (1.21)	47	7.41 (1.6)	42	7.1 (1.62)	267	6.4
Atl. Herring	5.34 (0.94)	122	5.77 (1.31)	52	6.69 (0.85)	51	5.41 (1.34)	50	5.69 (1.19)	275	10.6	9.4 (1.4)
Atl. Mackerel		NA	7.24 (1.13)	50	5.33 (0.86)	51	6.89 (1.07)	50	6.48 (1.32)	151	6.0
Butterfish	7.13 (1.59)	65	7.31 (1.45)	89	4.91 (1.12)	53	8.1 (2.7)	50	6.92 (2.04)	257	6.2
Illex	5.54 (0.4)	77	5.43 (0.51)	52	5.5 (0.52)	50	4.76 (0.79)	50	5.33 (0.63)	229	7.1	5.9 (0.56)
Loligo	5.22 (0.36)	83	5.24 (0.26)	60	4.84 (0.63)	52	4.6 (0.72)	50	5.02 (0.56)	245	5.6
Sand lance	6.66 (0.54)	18		NA	5.78 (0.34)	60	7.99 (0.74)	8	6.17 (0.81)	86	6.8	4.4 (0.82)
Silver hake	4.25 (0.39)	189	4.42 (0.45)	50	4.19 (0.39)	50	4.55 (0.63)	50	4.31 (0.46)	339	4.6

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Fish condition

Female fish "fatness" from fall surveys

Georges Bank Condition factor for fish species in the GB

Research Spotlight
Condition factor for fish species in the GOM

Linking condtition factor to changing habitat, ecosystem productivity and economics.

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Protected species

North Atlantic right whale abundance

New indicator

North Atlantic right whale calf births

Seal population snapshots

~75,000 harbor seals, trend analysis in progress
30,000 - 40,000 grey seals in US; 425,000 in Canada and ↗

Seal diet studies in progress

Unusual Mortality Events

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Aggregate fish distribution and southern species

Overall fish biomass tracking northeast and deeper

Southern species not increasing in surveys, but further north?

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Habitat condition: nearshore environments

Chesapeake Bay water quality update

Record high precipitation led to extreme low salinity event in spring 2019

Increased oyster mortality and further spread invasive catfish

Virginia nesting waterbird populations declining

Declines attributed to habitat loss

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Habitat condition: large ocean current changes

Three dimensional map of the Northeast US shelf showing major bottom

Bottom temp increasing on shelf
Cold Pool is warming
Almost no Labrador slope water entering the Gulf of Maine 2017-2019

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Habitat condition: large ocean current changes

Three dimensional map of the Northeast US shelf showing major bottom

More northerly Gulf Stream
More Gulf Stream warm core rings

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Marine heatwaves: Georges Bank

img: January - December 2019 sea surface temperatures above 90th percentile of average, 50%

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SOE Take Home Messages

Fishing icon made by EDAB Fishing industry icon made by EDAB Other human uses icon made by EDAB

Proportion of total primary production required to support commercial landings declining in both New England and Mid-Atlantic

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SOE Take Home Messages

Fishing icon made by EDAB Fishing industry icon made by EDAB Other human uses icon made by EDAB

Proportion of total primary production required to support commercial landings declining in both New England and Mid-Atlantic
Engagement in commercial fisheries since 2004
- Mid-Atlantic - descrease in medium-high engaged communities
- New England - increase in moderately engaged communities

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SOE Take Home Messages

Fishing icon made by EDAB Fishing industry icon made by EDAB Other human uses icon made by EDAB

Proportion of total primary production required to support commercial landings declining in both New England and Mid-Atlantic
Engagement in commercial fisheries since 2004
- Mid-Atlantic - descrease in medium-high engaged communities
- New England - increase in moderately engaged communities
New England commercial fisheries remain dependent on single species
- Gulf of Maine - lobster
- Georges Bank - scallops

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SOE Take Home Messages

Fishing icon made by EDAB Fishing industry icon made by EDAB Other human uses icon made by EDAB

Proportion of total primary production required to support commercial landings declining in both New England and Mid-Atlantic
Engagement in commercial fisheries since 2004
- Mid-Atlantic - descrease in medium-high engaged communities
- New England - increase in moderately engaged communities
New England commercial fisheries remain dependent on single species
- Gulf of Maine - lobster
- Georges Bank - scallops
Habitat modeling indicates several species that are highly likely to occupy wind energy lease areas
- Habitat conditions have become more favorable over time for most

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SOE Take Home Messages

Other fish icon made by EDAB Forage fish icon made by EDAB Invertebrate icon made by EDAB

Forage fish energy content shows seasonal and annual variation

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SOE Take Home Messages

Other fish icon made by EDAB Forage fish icon made by EDAB Invertebrate icon made by EDAB

Forage fish energy content shows seasonal and annual variation
Atlantic herring energy content half what it was in the 1980-90s

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SOE Take Home Messages

Other fish icon made by EDAB Forage fish icon made by EDAB Invertebrate icon made by EDAB

Forage fish energy content shows seasonal and annual variation
Atlantic herring energy content half what it was in the 1980-90s
Continued northward shift in aggregate fish distribution and a tendency towards deeper waters

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SOE Take Home Messages

Hydrography icon made by EDAB Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB Climate icon made by EDAB

Heavy rains in 2018-2019 degraded Chesepeake Bay water quality
- Increased oyster mortality and further spread invasive catfish

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SOE Take Home Messages

Hydrography icon made by EDAB Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB Climate icon made by EDAB

Heavy rains in 2018-2019 degraded Chesepeake Bay water quality
- Increased oyster mortality and further spread invasive catfish
Cold pool is getting warmer

23 / 27

SOE Take Home Messages

Hydrography icon made by EDAB Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB Climate icon made by EDAB

Heavy rains in 2018-2019 degraded Chesepeake Bay water quality
- Increased oyster mortality and further spread invasive catfish
Cold pool is getting warmer
Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the past 3 years

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SOE Take Home Messages

Hydrography icon made by EDAB Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB Climate icon made by EDAB

Heavy rains in 2018-2019 degraded Chesepeake Bay water quality
- Increased oyster mortality and further spread invasive catfish
Cold pool is getting warmer
Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the past 3 years
Gulf Stream increasingly unstable

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SOE Take Home Messages

Hydrography icon made by EDAB Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB Climate icon made by EDAB

Heavy rains in 2018-2019 degraded Chesepeake Bay water quality
- Increased oyster mortality and further spread invasive catfish
Cold pool is getting warmer
Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the past 3 years
Gulf Stream increasingly unstable
2000 Regime shift in warm core rings

23 / 27

SOE Take Home Messages

Hydrography icon made by EDAB Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB Climate icon made by EDAB

Heavy rains in 2018-2019 degraded Chesepeake Bay water quality
- Increased oyster mortality and further spread invasive catfish
Cold pool is getting warmer
Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the past 3 years
Gulf Stream increasingly unstable
2000 Regime shift in warm core rings
Increased number and severity in marine heat waves in all regions

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SOE in action

Feedback from FMCs
Improvements for next year
MAFMC risk assessment

IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

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Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

Risk Level	Definition
Low	No trend and low variability in revenue
Low-Moderate	Increasing or high variability in revenue
Moderate-High	Significant long term revenue decrease
High	Significant recent decrease in revenue

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species

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Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 institutions

Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Andy Beet
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Geret DePiper
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Sarah Gaichas
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
John Kocik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society)
Scott Large
Amanda Dillon (IBSS)

Don Lyons (National Audubon Society)
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Lucey
Chris Melrose
Ryan Morse
Kimberly Murray
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Charles Perretti
Vincent Saba
Laurel Smith
Mark Terceiro
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Mark Wuenschel
Gail Wynne

NOAA Fisheries IEA logo

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External Resources

IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

Contacts: kimberly.bastille@noaa.gov, sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov, sean.lucey@noaa.gov, scott.large@noaa.gov

Questions?

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State of the Ecosystem:

2020 Overview

Kimberly Bastille1,2, Sean Lucey1, Sarah Gaichas1, Geret DePiper1, Kimberly Hyde1, and Scott Large1 Northeast Fisheries Science Center1 Integrated Statistics2

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting

Two page summary with visualizations

Document orientation

Commercial fisheries and ecosystem productivity

Commercial fisheries engagement, landings, revenue

Recreational fishing in the Mid-Atlantic

Commercial fisheries: Revenue

Fish stock status - Mid-Atlantic

Fish stock status - New England

Other ocean uses: wind energy fish habitat overlap

Fishery overlap to be added

New information on forage fish energy density (ED)

Fish condition

Protected species

Aggregate fish distribution and southern species

Habitat condition: nearshore environments

Habitat condition: large ocean current changes

Habitat condition: large ocean current changes

Marine heatwaves: Georges Bank

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE in action

Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: Commercial revenue

Contributors - THANK YOU!

External Resources

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

Help

Kimberly Bastille^1,2, Sean Lucey¹, Sarah Gaichas¹,
Geret DePiper¹, Kimberly Hyde¹, and Scott Large¹
Northeast Fisheries Science Center¹
Integrated Statistics²