State of the Ecosystem:

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

# State of the Ecosystem:
## Mid-Atlantic and New England 2020<br />Update for ICES WGNARS
### Sarah Gaichas and Kim Bastille <br /> Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment <br /> Northeast Fisheries Science Center

---

class: top, left

# Today's Talk

.pull-left[

- Process overview

- New! Response memo

- 2020 Report summaries

- Online resources
  + Tech documentation
  + ecodata R package
  + News story/webpage

- Appendix with slides presented to Mid-Atlantic Council

]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop<sup>1</sup>*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](EDAB_images/iea-loop.png)
]

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]

???

---
## State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting: Context for busy people

*"So what?" --John Boreman, September 2016*

1. Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives

1. Synthesis across indicators for big picture

1. Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report

1. Short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text

1. Emphasis on reproducibility

.center[
![:img relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives, 60%](EDAB_images/nes-components-abstracted.png)
]

???
In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model

---
## Process and timeline for 2020 reports
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???
April 2019
  + 2019 SOE Council presentations
  + Debrief meeting. Summarize Council comments, proritize 2020 objectives
  
August 2019 
  + Workshop with current and new contributors, Council staff
  + Develop general outline and workplan for 2020 indicators
  
September - November 2019 
  + Monthly subgroup check-ins
  + Graphics development: icons, map figure, 2 page summary format
  
December 2019
  + Indicator submission deadline mid-December
  + Data wrangling and visualization by Kim Bastille, superhero
  + 18 December initial synthesis

January 2020
  + Pre-synthesis workshop strawman developed
  + Synthesis workshop with all contributors, develop 2 page summary bullets
  + Collaborative text production in google doc
  
February 2020
  + Google doc to .Rmd with figures
  + Internal review Feb 14-27+
  + Write response memo, Mid-Atlantic risk assessment
  
March 2020
  + SSC presentations
  + Final editing and submission to Councils
  
April 2020: SOE Council presentations

---
## State of the Ecosystem 2020: Response Memo

Our response to the need for more formal response to comments!

* 30 comments or requests from 2019
  * One addressed by having the response memo
  * 21 addressed within the SOE at SSC/Council request
    * New summary section with synthetic overview addresses 3 requests
    * 5 new indicators added 
    * 3 existing indicators modified
    * 5 editorial updates 
    * 5 partially addressed requests
  * 8 not currently addressed within SOE
    * 2 have information summaries in the response memo
    * 2 may be addressed by student projects 
    * 1 needs feedback on how to deal with known data issue
    * 1 seeking data
    * 1 relevant to 2019 visualization that was replaced in 2020
    * 1 beyond capacity to address at present
    
SSC/Council feedback requested on the approach and all details, memo has specific questions

---
## State of the Ecosystem 2020: Structure
.pull-left[

### Report Structure
1. Summary 2 pager

1. Human dimensions

1. Protected species

1. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)

1. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
]

.pull-right[

*Established ecosystem-scale objectives in the Mid-Atlantic*

<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported here </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Seafood Production </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings by feeding group </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Profits </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Recreation </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Days fished; recreational catch </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Stability </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and species) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Commercial engagement trends </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding group from surveys </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Productivity </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Trophic structure </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding groups, Zooplankton </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Habitat </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## New 2 page summary with visualizations

.pull-left[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets, 100%](EDAB_images/MAFMC-SOE-2-pager-SSCdraft.png)
]

.pull-right[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic, 100%](EDAB_images/MAFMC-SOE-2-pager-SSCdraft2.png)
]

---
## Research: linking report indicators for management use

.pull-left[
![:img Diagram with possible relationships between oceanographic and habitat indicators, food web indicators, fish condition factor, fish population indicators, fishery economics indicators, and fishery objectives such as seafood production](EDAB_images/SOEconditionfactorlinks_color.png)
]

.pull-right[
![:img Same diagram as on the left, but with only phytoplankton, temperature, stomach fullness, condition, biomass, and stock productivity highlighted ](EDAB_images/SOEconditionfactorlinks_keycolor.png)
]

Conceptual model links indicators in the report with management objectives.

A subset of objectives are currently under investigation. We plan to extend this work in 2020.

---
## Document orientation
.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 100%](EDAB_images/EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

.contrib[
This year, we mapped trawl survey strata to Ecological Production Units (EPUs)

[More information on EPUs](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/epu.html)  
[More information on survey data](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/survdat.html)  
]
]
.pull-right[
Key to figures
![Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/spec-dist-1.png)
.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

<p style="color:#FF8C00;">Orange line = significant increase</p>
<p style="color:#9932CC;">Purple line = significant decrease</p>
No color line = not significant or too short
<p style="background-color:#D3D3D3;">Grey background = last 10 years</p>

]
]

---
## SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

* The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady) 
--

* Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue 
--

* Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity 
--
  
  * Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species 
--
  
  * Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species 
--
  
  * While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue 
--
  
  * Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s 
--
  
  * Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019
--
  
  * Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
--
  
  * Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and the cold pool are warming
--
  
  * Warmer waters increase nutrient recycling and summer primary production

---
## SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

* Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
--

* Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
--

* Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops) 
--
  
  * Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
--
  
  * While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue 
--
  
  * Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s 
--
  
  * Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
--
  
  * Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the last 3 years

---
## SOE Take Home Messages (New England, continued)

* The Gulf of Maine has changed over the past decade
  
    * Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and surface water is warming
    * Small zooplankton are more abundant than large fatty zooplankton favored by right whales
    * Spring blooms below average since 2013
--
  
  * Georges Bank has also experienced warming and heat waves over the past decade
  
    * Surrounded by warm core rings in summer 2019
    * Small zooplankton also dominant here
    * Average phytoplankton biomass in 2019

---
## External Resources

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* [Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna)
  * [Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions)
  * [Lower trophic level indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL)
  
* [ERDDAP server](https://comet.nefsc.noaa.gov/erddap/index.html)

* [NOAA SOE feature story, 7 April 2020](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/new-state-ecosystem-reports-document-big-picture-around-fishing)

* [NOAA SOE summary webpage](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations/

Scroll down to WGNARS 2020

Contacts:  <sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov>, <sean.lucey@noaa.gov>, <scott.large@noaa.gov>

---
## Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 intstitutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) <br>
Andy Beet<br>
Patricia Clay<br>
Lisa Colburn<br>
Geret DePiper<br>
Michael Fogarty<br>
Paula Fratantoni <br>
Kevin Friedland<br>
Sarah Gaichas<br>
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)<br>
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)<br>
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br> 
Sean Hardison<br>
Kimberly Hyde<br>
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)<br>
John Kocik<br>
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society)<br>
Scott Large
]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society)<br>
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)<br>
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br> 
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br>
Sean Lucey<br>
Chris Melrose<br>
Ryan Morse<br>
Kimberly Murray<br>
Chris Orphanides<br>
Richard Pace<br>
Charles Perretti<br>
Vincent Saba<br>
Laurel Smith<br>
Mark Terceiro<br>
John Walden<br>
Harvey Walsh<br>
Mark Wuenschel
]
]

.center[
![:img NOAA Fisheries IEA logo, 40%](EDAB_images/noaa-iea.png)
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/SOE_feature_image.png")
background-size: contain

.footnote[Questions? Thank you!]

---
# Appendix

## Example: full results shown to the Mid-Atlantic Council, 7 April 2020

---
## Commercial fisheries and ecosystem productivity

*Primary Production Required to support landings*
.pull-left[
![Primary production required to support MAB commercial landings. Included are the top species accounting for 80\% of the landings in each year, with 15\% transfer efficiency assumed between trophic levels.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/ppr-mab-1.png)

## Fraction of primary production used by fisheries

## Declining since 2000

Combined decrease in landings and stable primary production

Many assumptions to explore

]

.pull-right[
![:img species included in 80% of landings in the Mid Atlantic](EDAB_images/composition-MAB-0_80.png)
]

---
## Commercial fisheries engagement, landings, revenue

.center[
![Commercial engagement scores (total pounds landed, value landed, commercial permits, and commercial dealers in a community) for Mid-Atlantic fishing communities, 2004-2018.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/MAB-comm-engagement-trend-1.png)
]

Fewer highly engaged Mid-Atlantic communities; engagement scores for medium-highly engaged communities decreasing, linked to landings/revenue?

.pull-left[
![Total commercial seafood landings (black) and Mid-Atlantic managed seafood landings (red).](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/total-landings-1.png)
]

.pull-right[
![Total revenue for the region (black) and revenue from MAFMC managed species (red).](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/comm-revenue-1.png)
]

---
## Recreational fishing
.pull-left[
Lowest recreational landings recorded in 2018--why?

![Total recreational seafood harvest in the Mid-Atlantic region.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/rec-landings-1.png)

Effort trend similar to previous reports

![Recreational effort in the Mid-Atlantic.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/rec-op-1.png)

]
.pull-right[
Significant decrease in recreational fleet diversity

![Recreational effort diversity in the Mid-Atlantic.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/rec-div-1.png)

Splitting out SAFMC, ASMFC removed downward catch diversity trend

![Diversity of recreational catch in the Mid-Atlantic.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/rec-div2-1.png)
]

---
## Other ocean uses: wind energy fish habitat overlap

<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
<tr>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden" colspan="1"></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - North</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Proposed - North</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - Mid</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Proposed - Mid</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - South</div></th>
</tr>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Season </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Clearnose Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Silver Hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spotted Hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fourspot Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Northern Searobin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Clearnose Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Smooth Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Sea Scallop </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fourspot Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish/Spotted Hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

.pull-left[
![Map of BOEM existing (black) and proposed (red) lease areas in North (N), Mid (M) and South (S) portions of the coast as of February 2019.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wind-hab-1.png)
]

.pull-right[
## Fishery overlap to be added

## What habitat model outputs most useful?
]
---
## Protected species

.pull-left[
North Atlantic right whale abundance

![1990-2018 right whale abundance estimates with 95\% credible intervals. These values represent the estimated number of animals alive sometime during the year referenced and NOT at the end of the year referenced. Three known deaths were recorded in 2018, but these deaths were not reflected in the 2018 estimate because those animals were alive sometime during the year. An additional 10 known deaths occurred in 2019.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/NARW-abundance-1.png)

**New indicator**

North Atlantic right whale calf births

![Number of North Atlantic right whale calf births, 1990 - 2019.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/NARW-calf-abundance-1.png)

]

.pull-right[
Seal population snapshots

+ ~75,000 harbor seals, trend analysis in progress
  
  + 30,000 - 40,000 grey seals in US; 425,000 in Canada and &nearr;

Seal diet studies in progress

Unusual Mortality Events

+ [North Atlantic right whales](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/2017-2020-north-atlantic-right-whale-unusual-mortality-event)  
  
  + [Humpback whales](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/2016-2020-humpback-whale-unusual-mortality-event-along-atlantic-coast)  
  
  + [Minke whales](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/2017-2020-minke-whale-unusual-mortality-event-along-atlantic-coast)  
  
  + [Grey, harbor, hooded, and harp seals](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/marine-life-distress/2018-2019-pinniped-unusual-mortality-event-along)
  
]

---
## Fish stock status

Change from 2019: bluefish biomass below threshold

![Summary of single species status for MAFMC and jointly managed stocks (Goosefish and Spiny dogfish).](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/stock-status-1.png)

---
## Updated fish feeding groups to look at aggregate biomass

<table class="table" style="font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Feeding groups and management bodies.</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Feeding Group </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> MAFMC </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Joint </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> NEFMC </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> State or Other </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Apex Predator </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Piscivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> bluefish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid, summer flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> goosefish, spiny dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Planktivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic mackerel, butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> atlantic herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> black sea bass, scup, tilefish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthos </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> sea scallop </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs) </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## Aggregate fish biomass generally stable

![Spring (left) and fall (right) surveyed biomass in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Data from the NEFSC Bottom Trawl Survey are shown in black, with NEAMAP shown in red. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean. ](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/nefsc-biomass-mab-1.png)

---
## Aggregate fish distribution and southern species
.pull-left[
Overall fish biomass tracking northeast and deeper

![Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/spec-dist1-1.png)

]  
.pull-right[
Southern species not increasing in surveys, but further north?

![Blue runner presence on Northeast Shelf](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/blue-runner-1.png)
]
---
## Fish condition and productivity

.pull-left-30[
Female fish "fatness" from fall surveys in the MAB

&nbsp;

Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly, MAB
]
.pull-right-70[
![:img Condition factor for fish species in the MAB. MAB data are missing for 2017 due to survey delays, 150%](EDAB_images/MABcondition_2019_viridis_final.jpg)

![Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/MAB-recruitment-1.png)
]

---
## New information on forage fish energy density

Forage fish energy content varies seasonally and annually

Atlantic herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s

<table class="table" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
<tr>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden" colspan="1"></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Spring 2017</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Fall 2017</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Spring 2018</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Fall 2018</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Total</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="1"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">1980s</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="1"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">1990s</div></th>
</tr>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> ED </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.84 (1.62) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 128 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.12 (1.46) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.45 (1.21) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 47 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.41 (1.6) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 42 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.1 (1.62) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 267 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.34 (0.94) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 122 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.77 (1.31) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 52 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.69 (0.85) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 51 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.41 (1.34) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.69 (1.19) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 275 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.4 (1.4) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. Mackerel </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.24 (1.13) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.33 (0.86) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 51 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.89 (1.07) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.48 (1.32) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 151 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.0 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.13 (1.59) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 65 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.31 (1.45) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 89 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.91 (1.12) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 53 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.1 (2.7) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.92 (2.04) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 257 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Illex </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.54 (0.4) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 77 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.43 (0.51) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 52 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.5 (0.52) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.76 (0.79) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.33 (0.63) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 229 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.9 (0.56) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Loligo </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.22 (0.36) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 83 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.24 (0.26) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 60 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.84 (0.63) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 52 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.6 (0.72) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.02 (0.56) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 245 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Sand lance </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.66 (0.54) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.78 (0.34) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 60 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.99 (0.74) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.17 (0.81) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 86 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.4 (0.82) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Silver hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.25 (0.39) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 189 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.42 (0.45) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.19 (0.39) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.55 (0.63) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.31 (0.46) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 339 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## Habitat condition: nearshore environments

.pull-left[
Chesapeake Bay water quality update

![Salinity in Chesapeake Bay throughout 2018 (blue) and 2019 (red)  as well as the daily average 2008-2019 (black) and the full observed range 2008-2019 (gray shading).](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/cb-salinity-1.png)

Record high precipitation led to extreme low salinity event in spring 2019

High flows and nutrient loads led to 3rd lowest summer dissolved-oxygen levels recorded in Maryland Bay waters

]

.pull-right[
Virginia nesting waterbird populations declining

![Functional group population estimates derived from Table 4 of Watts, B. D., B. J. Paxton, R. Boettcher, and A. L. Wilke. 2019. Status and distribution of colonial waterbirds in coastal Virginia: 2018 breeding season. Center for Conservation Biology Technical Report Series, CCBTR-19-06. College of William and Mary and Virginia Commonwealth University, Williamsburg, VA. 28 pp.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/VA-cote-1.png)

Declines attributed to habitat loss linked to sea level rise
]

---
## Habitat condition: large ocean current changes

.pull-left[
More northerly Gulf Stream

![Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall. Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/GSI-1.png)
]
.pull-right[
More Gulf Stream warm core rings

![Interannual Variability of the WCR formation between 1980 and 2019. The regime shift (denoted by the split in the red solid line) is significant at the turn of the century.  Figure reproduced with permission from Gangopadhyay, et al. (2019).  2018 and 2019 data points based on personal communication with A. Gangopadhyay (2020).](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/warm-core-rings-1.png)
]

.center[

Almost no Labrador slope water entering the Gulf of Maine 2017-2019

![Proportion of Warm Slope Water (WSW) and Labrador slope water (LSLW) entering the GOM through the Northeast Channel.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wsw-prop-1.png)
]

???
MAFMC requested that this indicator be included (in past years it was in the New England report only).

---
## Mid-Atlantic regional habitat conditions

.pull-left[
Mid-Atlatic cold pool is warming

![Temperature anomaly in cold pool region, defined as the area with a mean September-October bottom temperature <12°C from 1963 to 2013.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/cold-pool-1.png)

Bottom temperature is increasing

![Annual bottom temperature in the Mid-Atlantic Bight.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/MAB-bot-temp-1.png)

]

.pull-right[
![:img Three dimensional map of the Northeast US shelf showing major bottom, current, and other oceanographic features: Mid-Atlantic bight with the cold pool, circulation on Georges Bank and in the Gulf of Maine, the Scotian Shelf off Canada, the Labrador Current coming from the North and the Gulf Stream offshore with associated warm core and cold core rings spinning off. Precipitation over land affects water quality in the Chesapeake Bay., 120%](EDAB_images/MAFMC_NE_SHELF_MAP.png)
]

---
## Seasonal temperature and phytoplankton in 2019
.pull-left-60[
Sea surface temperature anomaly and trends
![MAB seasonal sea surface time series overlaid onto 2019 seasonal spatial anomalies.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/MAB-SST-insitu-1.png)

]

.pull-right-40[
Satellite chlorophyll a anomaly

![:img Map of 2019 chlorophyll a anomalies by season from satellite data, 100%](EDAB_images/CHL_SEASONAL_ANOMS_2019.png)
]

---
## Marine heatwaves in the Mid-Atlantic

**New Indicator**

.center[
![Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) in the Mid-Atlantic Bight.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/heatwave-mab-1.png)
]

.pull-left[
![img: January - December 2019 sea surface temperatures above 90th percentile of average](EDAB_images/MAB_heatwave.jpeg)
]

.pull-right[
![Maximum intensity heatwave anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight occurring on July 22, 2019.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/mab-heatwave-max-1.png)
]

---
## Changing patterns in primary production

![Monthly primary production trends show the annual cycle (i.e. the peak during the summer months) and the changes over time for each month.](20200508_US_SOEUpdate_Gaichas_files/figure-html/PP-OCCI-1.png)

More summer production (warmer, nutrient recycling), but likely smaller-celled species that contribute less to fish production