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State of the Ecosystem:

Mid-Atlantic and New England 2020
Update for ICES WGNARS

Sarah Gaichas and Kim Bastille
Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment
Northeast Fisheries Science Center

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Today's Talk

  • Process overview

  • New! Response memo

  • 2020 Report summaries

  • Online resources

    • Tech documentation
    • ecodata R package
    • News story/webpage

  • Appendix with slides presented to Mid-Atlantic Council

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

2 / 33

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting: Context for busy people

"So what?" --John Boreman, September 2016

  1. Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives

  2. Synthesis across indicators for big picture

  3. Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report

  4. Short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text

  5. Emphasis on reproducibility

relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives

3 / 33

In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model

Process and timeline for 2020 reports

4 / 33

April 2019

  • 2019 SOE Council presentations
  • Debrief meeting. Summarize Council comments, proritize 2020 objectives

August 2019

  • Workshop with current and new contributors, Council staff
  • Develop general outline and workplan for 2020 indicators

September - November 2019

  • Monthly subgroup check-ins
  • Graphics development: icons, map figure, 2 page summary format

December 2019

  • Indicator submission deadline mid-December
  • Data wrangling and visualization by Kim Bastille, superhero
  • 18 December initial synthesis

January 2020

  • Pre-synthesis workshop strawman developed
  • Synthesis workshop with all contributors, develop 2 page summary bullets
  • Collaborative text production in google doc

February 2020

  • Google doc to .Rmd with figures
  • Internal review Feb 14-27+
  • Write response memo, Mid-Atlantic risk assessment

March 2020

  • SSC presentations
  • Final editing and submission to Councils

April 2020: SOE Council presentations

State of the Ecosystem 2020: Response Memo

Our response to the need for more formal response to comments!

  • 30 comments or requests from 2019
  • One addressed by having the response memo
  • 21 addressed within the SOE at SSC/Council request
    • New summary section with synthetic overview addresses 3 requests
    • 5 new indicators added
    • 3 existing indicators modified
    • 5 editorial updates
    • 5 partially addressed requests
  • 8 not currently addressed within SOE
    • 2 have information summaries in the response memo
    • 2 may be addressed by student projects
    • 1 needs feedback on how to deal with known data issue
    • 1 seeking data
    • 1 relevant to 2019 visualization that was replaced in 2020
    • 1 beyond capacity to address at present

SSC/Council feedback requested on the approach and all details, memo has specific questions

5 / 33

State of the Ecosystem 2020: Structure

Report Structure

  1. Summary 2 pager

  2. Human dimensions

  3. Protected species

  4. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)

  5. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity

Established ecosystem-scale objectives in the Mid-Atlantic

Objective Categories Indicators reported here
Seafood Production Landings by feeding group
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Days fished; recreational catch
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and species)
Social & Cultural Commercial engagement trends
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding group from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding groups, Zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
6 / 33

New 2 page summary with visualizations

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets

State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic

7 / 33

Research: linking report indicators for management use

Diagram with possible relationships between oceanographic and habitat indicators

Same diagram as on the left

Conceptual model links indicators in the report with management objectives.

A subset of objectives are currently under investigation. We plan to extend this work in 2020.

8 / 33

Document orientation

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

This year, we mapped trawl survey strata to Ecological Production Units (EPUs)

More information on EPUs
More information on survey data

Key to figures Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem.

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or too short

Grey background = last 10 years

9 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
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SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
  • While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
  • While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
  • While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
  • While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019
  • Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
  • While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019
  • Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
  • Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and the cold pool are warming
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (Mid-Atlantic)

  • The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
  • Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
  • Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
  • Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
  • While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019
  • Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
  • Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and the cold pool are warming
  • Warmer waters increase nutrient recycling and summer primary production
10 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
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SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
11 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
11 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
11 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
11 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
11 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
11 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England)

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
  • Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the last 3 years
11 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England, continued)

  • The Gulf of Maine has changed over the past decade

    • Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and surface water is warming
    • Small zooplankton are more abundant than large fatty zooplankton favored by right whales
    • Spring blooms below average since 2013
12 / 33

SOE Take Home Messages (New England, continued)

  • The Gulf of Maine has changed over the past decade

    • Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and surface water is warming
    • Small zooplankton are more abundant than large fatty zooplankton favored by right whales
    • Spring blooms below average since 2013

  • Georges Bank has also experienced warming and heat waves over the past decade

    • Surrounded by warm core rings in summer 2019
    • Small zooplankton also dominant here
    • Average phytoplankton biomass in 2019
12 / 33

External Resources

Contacts: sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov, sean.lucey@noaa.gov, scott.large@noaa.gov

13 / 33

Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 intstitutions

Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Andy Beet
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Geret DePiper
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Sarah Gaichas
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
John Kocik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society)
Scott Large

Don Lyons (National Audubon Society)
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Lucey
Chris Melrose
Ryan Morse
Kimberly Murray
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Charles Perretti
Vincent Saba
Laurel Smith
Mark Terceiro
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Mark Wuenschel

NOAA Fisheries IEA logo

14 / 33

Questions? Thank you!

15 / 33

Appendix

Example: full results shown to the Mid-Atlantic Council, 7 April 2020

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Commercial fisheries and ecosystem productivity

Primary Production Required to support landings

Primary production required to support MAB commercial landings. Included are the top species accounting for 80\% of the landings in each year, with 15\% transfer efficiency assumed between trophic levels.

Fraction of primary production used by fisheries

Declining since 2000

Combined decrease in landings and stable primary production

Many assumptions to explore

species included in 80% of landings in the Mid Atlantic

17 / 33

Commercial fisheries engagement, landings, revenue

Commercial engagement scores (total pounds landed, value landed, commercial permits, and commercial dealers in a community) for Mid-Atlantic fishing communities, 2004-2018.

Fewer highly engaged Mid-Atlantic communities; engagement scores for medium-highly engaged communities decreasing, linked to landings/revenue?

Total commercial seafood landings (black) and Mid-Atlantic managed seafood landings (red).

Total revenue for the region (black) and revenue from MAFMC managed species (red).

18 / 33

Recreational fishing

Lowest recreational landings recorded in 2018--why?

Total recreational seafood harvest in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Effort trend similar to previous reports

Recreational effort in the Mid-Atlantic.

Significant decrease in recreational fleet diversity

Recreational effort diversity in the Mid-Atlantic.

Splitting out SAFMC, ASMFC removed downward catch diversity trend

Diversity of recreational catch in the Mid-Atlantic.

19 / 33

Other ocean uses: wind energy fish habitat overlap

Existing - North
Proposed - North
Existing - Mid
Proposed - Mid
Existing - South
Season Species Trend Species Trend Species Trend Species Trend Species Trend
Spring Little Skate `↗` Atlantic Herring Little Skate `↗` Spiny Dogfish `↗` Spiny Dogfish `↗`
Spring Atlantic Herring `↘` Little Skate `↗` Atlantic Herring `↘` Atlantic Herring `↘` Longfin Squid `↗`
Spring Windowpane `↗` Longhorn Sculpin `↗` Spiny Dogfish `↗` Little Skate `↗` Summer Flounder `↗`
Spring Winter Skate `↗` Windowpane `↗` Windowpane `↗` Alewife `↘` Clearnose Skate `↗`
Spring Longhorn Sculpin `↗` Alewife `↘` Winter Skate `↗` Silver Hake `↗` Spotted Hake `↗`
Fall Butterfish `↗` Butterfish `↗` Summer Flounder `↗` Longhorn Sculpin `↗` Longfin Squid `↘`
Fall Longfin Squid `↗` Fourspot Flounder Longfin Squid `↗` Little Skate `↗` Northern Searobin `↗`
Fall Summer Flounder `↗` Longhorn Sculpin `↘` Butterfish `↗` Butterfish `↗` Clearnose Skate `↗`
Fall Winter Flounder `↘` Summer Flounder `↗` Smooth Dogfish `↗` Sea Scallop `↗` Butterfish `↗`
Fall Spiny Dogfish `↘` Spiny Dogfish `↘` Windowpane `↗` Fourspot Flounder `↗` Spiny Dogfish/Spotted Hake `↗`

Map of BOEM existing (black) and proposed (red) lease areas in North (N), Mid (M) and South (S) portions of the coast as of February 2019.

Fishery overlap to be added

What habitat model outputs most useful?

20 / 33

Protected species

North Atlantic right whale abundance

1990-2018 right whale abundance estimates with 95\% credible intervals. These values represent the estimated number of animals alive sometime during the year referenced and NOT at the end of the year referenced. Three known deaths were recorded in 2018, but these deaths were not reflected in the 2018 estimate because those animals were alive sometime during the year. An additional 10 known deaths occurred in 2019.

New indicator

North Atlantic right whale calf births

Number of North Atlantic right whale calf births, 1990 - 2019.

Seal population snapshots

  • ~75,000 harbor seals, trend analysis in progress

  • 30,000 - 40,000 grey seals in US; 425,000 in Canada and ↗

Seal diet studies in progress

Unusual Mortality Events

21 / 33

Fish stock status

Change from 2019: bluefish biomass below threshold

Summary of single species status for MAFMC and jointly managed stocks (Goosefish and Spiny dogfish).

22 / 33

Updated fish feeding groups to look at aggregate biomass

Feeding groups and management bodies.
Feeding Group MAFMC Joint NEFMC State or Other
Apex Predator NA NA NA bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna
Piscivore bluefish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid, summer flounder goosefish, spiny dogfish acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane
Planktivore atlantic mackerel, butterfish NA atlantic herring alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl
Benthivore black sea bass, scup, tilefish NA american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog
Benthos atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog NA sea scallop blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs)
23 / 33

Aggregate fish biomass generally stable

Spring (left) and fall (right) surveyed biomass in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Data from the NEFSC Bottom Trawl Survey are shown in black, with NEAMAP shown in red. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean.

24 / 33

Aggregate fish distribution and southern species

Overall fish biomass tracking northeast and deeper

Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem.

Southern species not increasing in surveys, but further north?

Blue runner presence on Northeast Shelf

25 / 33

Fish condition and productivity

Female fish "fatness" from fall surveys in the MAB

 

 

 

 

Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly, MAB

Condition factor for fish species in the MAB. MAB data are missing for 2017 due to survey delays

Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line.

26 / 33

New information on forage fish energy density

Forage fish energy content varies seasonally and annually

Atlantic herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s

Spring 2017
Fall 2017
Spring 2018
Fall 2018
Total
1980s
1990s
Species ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED ED (SD)
Alewife 6.84 (1.62) 128 8.12 (1.46) 50 6.45 (1.21) 47 7.41 (1.6) 42 7.1 (1.62) 267 6.4
Atl. Herring 5.34 (0.94) 122 5.77 (1.31) 52 6.69 (0.85) 51 5.41 (1.34) 50 5.69 (1.19) 275 10.6 9.4 (1.4)
Atl. Mackerel NA 7.24 (1.13) 50 5.33 (0.86) 51 6.89 (1.07) 50 6.48 (1.32) 151 6.0
Butterfish 7.13 (1.59) 65 7.31 (1.45) 89 4.91 (1.12) 53 8.1 (2.7) 50 6.92 (2.04) 257 6.2
Illex 5.54 (0.4) 77 5.43 (0.51) 52 5.5 (0.52) 50 4.76 (0.79) 50 5.33 (0.63) 229 7.1 5.9 (0.56)
Loligo 5.22 (0.36) 83 5.24 (0.26) 60 4.84 (0.63) 52 4.6 (0.72) 50 5.02 (0.56) 245 5.6
Sand lance 6.66 (0.54) 18 NA 5.78 (0.34) 60 7.99 (0.74) 8 6.17 (0.81) 86 6.8 4.4 (0.82)
Silver hake 4.25 (0.39) 189 4.42 (0.45) 50 4.19 (0.39) 50 4.55 (0.63) 50 4.31 (0.46) 339 4.6
27 / 33

Habitat condition: nearshore environments

Chesapeake Bay water quality update

Salinity in Chesapeake Bay throughout 2018 (blue) and 2019 (red) as well as the daily average 2008-2019 (black) and the full observed range 2008-2019 (gray shading).

Record high precipitation led to extreme low salinity event in spring 2019

High flows and nutrient loads led to 3rd lowest summer dissolved-oxygen levels recorded in Maryland Bay waters

Virginia nesting waterbird populations declining

Functional group population estimates derived from Table 4 of Watts, B. D., B. J. Paxton, R. Boettcher, and A. L. Wilke. 2019. Status and distribution of colonial waterbirds in coastal Virginia: 2018 breeding season. Center for Conservation Biology Technical Report Series, CCBTR-19-06. College of William and Mary and Virginia Commonwealth University, Williamsburg, VA. 28 pp.

Declines attributed to habitat loss linked to sea level rise

28 / 33

Habitat condition: large ocean current changes

More northerly Gulf Stream

Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall. Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position.

More Gulf Stream warm core rings

Interannual Variability of the WCR formation between 1980 and 2019. The regime shift (denoted by the split in the red solid line) is significant at the turn of the century. Figure reproduced with permission from Gangopadhyay, et al. (2019). 2018 and 2019 data points based on personal communication with A. Gangopadhyay (2020).

Almost no Labrador slope water entering the Gulf of Maine 2017-2019

Proportion of Warm Slope Water (WSW) and Labrador slope water (LSLW) entering the GOM through the Northeast Channel.

29 / 33

MAFMC requested that this indicator be included (in past years it was in the New England report only).

Mid-Atlantic regional habitat conditions

Mid-Atlatic cold pool is warming

Temperature anomaly in cold pool region, defined as the area with a mean September-October bottom temperature <12°C from 1963 to 2013.

Bottom temperature is increasing

Annual bottom temperature in the Mid-Atlantic Bight.

Three dimensional map of the Northeast US shelf showing major bottom

30 / 33

Seasonal temperature and phytoplankton in 2019

Sea surface temperature anomaly and trends MAB seasonal sea surface time series overlaid onto 2019 seasonal spatial anomalies.

Satellite chlorophyll a anomaly

Map of 2019 chlorophyll a anomalies by season from satellite data

31 / 33

Marine heatwaves in the Mid-Atlantic

New Indicator

Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) in the Mid-Atlantic Bight.

img: January - December 2019 sea surface temperatures above 90th percentile of average

Maximum intensity heatwave anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight occurring on July 22, 2019.

32 / 33

Changing patterns in primary production

Monthly primary production trends show the annual cycle (i.e. the peak during the summer months) and the changes over time for each month.

More summer production (warmer, nutrient recycling), but likely smaller-celled species that contribute less to fish production

33 / 33

Today's Talk

  • Process overview

  • New! Response memo

  • 2020 Report summaries

  • Online resources

    • Tech documentation
    • ecodata R package
    • News story/webpage

  • Appendix with slides presented to Mid-Atlantic Council

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

2 / 33
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