State of the Ecosystem:

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

# State of the Ecosystem:
## New England 2020
### Sean Lucey, Sarah Gaichas, Kim Bastille, <br /> Geret DePiper, Kim Hyde, and Scott Large <br /> Northeast Fisheries Science Center

---

class: top, left

## State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting: Context for busy people

1. Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives

1. Synthesis across indicators for big picture

1. Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report

1. Short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text

1. Emphasis on reproducibility

.center[
![:img relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives, 60%](EDAB_images/nes-components-abstracted.png)
]

???
In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model

---
## State of the Ecosystem 2020: Response Memo

Our response to the need for more formal response to comments:

* 30 comments or requests from 2019
  * One addressed by having the response memo
  * 21 addressed within the SOE at SSC/Council request
    * New summary section with synthetic overview addresses 3 requests
    * 5 new indicators added 
    * 3 existing indicators modified
    * 5 editorial updates 
    * 5 partially addressed requests
  * 8 not currently addressed within SOE
    * 2 have information summaries in the response memo
    * 2 may be addressed by student projects 
    * 1 needs feedback on how to deal with known data issue
    * 1 seeking data
    * 1 relevant to 2019 visualization that was replaced in 2020
    * 1 beyond capacity to address at present
    
SSC/Council feedback requested on the approach and all details, memo has specific questions

---
## State of the Ecosystem 2020: Structure
.pull-left[

### Report Structure
1. Summary 2 pager

1. Human dimensions

1. Protected species

1. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)

1. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
]

.pull-right[

*Established ecosystem-scale objectives from Legislature*

<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported here </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Seafood Production </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings by feeding group </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Profits </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price 
                                                     and volume </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Recreation </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Days fished; recreational catch </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Stability </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and
                                                     species) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Commercial engagement trends </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding
                                                     group from surveys </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Productivity </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of
                                                     managed species, Primary
                                                     productivity </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Trophic structure </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding
                                                     groups, Zooplankton </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Habitat </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat
                                                     conditions </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## New 2 page summary with visualizations

.pull-left[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets, 100%](EDAB_images/NEFMC-SOE-2-pager.png)
]

.pull-right[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic, 100%](EDAB_images/NEFMC-SOE-2-pager2.png)
]

---
## Research: linking report indicators for management use

.pull-left[
![:img Diagram with possible relationships between oceanographic and habitat indicators, food web indicators, fish condition factor, fish population indicators, fishery economics indicators, and fishery objectives such as seafood production](EDAB_images/SOEconditionfactorlinks_color.png)
]

.pull-right[
![:img Same diagram as on the left, but with only phytoplankton, temperature, stomach fullness, condition, biomass, and stock productivity highlighted ](EDAB_images/SOEconditionfactorlinks_keycolor.png)
]

Conceptual model links indicators in the report with management objectives.

A subset of objectives are currently under investigation. We plan to extend this work in 2020.

---
## Document orientation
.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 100%](EDAB_images/EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

.contrib[
This year, we mapped trawl survey strata to Ecological Production Units (EPUs)

[More information on EPUs](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/epu.html)  
[More information on survey data](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/survdat.html)  
]
]
.pull-right[
Key to figures
![Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/spec-dist-1.png)
.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

<p style="color:#FF8C00;">Orange line = significant increase</p>
<p style="color:#9932CC;">Purple line = significant decrease</p>
No color line = not significant or too short
<p style="background-color:#D3D3D3;">Grey background = last 10 years</p>

]
]

---
## Commercial fisheries and ecosystem productivity

*Fraction of primary production used by fisheries*
.pull-left[

![Primary production required to support New England commercial landings. Included are the top species accounting for 80\% of the landings in each year, with 15\% transfer efficiency assumed between trophic levels.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/ppr-ne-1.png)![Primary production required to support New England commercial landings. Included are the top species accounting for 80\% of the landings in each year, with 15\% transfer efficiency assumed between trophic levels.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/ppr-ne-2.png)

* Declining since 2000
 * Landings have remained steady with a slight increase in primary production
 * Many assumptions to explore

]

.pull-right[
### Georges Bank Species Composition
![:img species included in 80% of landings in the Mid Atlantic](EDAB_images/composition-GB-0_80.png)

]

---
## Commercial fisheries: Engagement

* Moderate to highly engaged New England communities have increased since 2004
* Engagement scores for medium-highly engaged communities increasing
* Linked to landings/revenue

![Commercial engagement scores (total pounds landed, value landed, commercial permits, and commercial dealers in a community) for New England fishing communities, 2004-2018.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/NE-comm-engagement-trend-1.png)

---
## Commercial fisheries: Revenue

* Total Revenue in both regions is up
* Largely dependent on single species
* Fluctuations on Georges Bank associated with rotational management (Scallops)

.pull-left[
**Georges Bank**
![Total revenue for the region (black) and revenue from NEFMC managed species (red).](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/comm-revenue-gb-1.png)

![Revenue change from the 2015 base year in 2015 dollars (black), Price (PI), and Volume Indicators (VI) for commercial benthos landings on Georges Bank](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/bennet-gb-1.png)

]

.pull-right[
**Gulf of Maine**
![Total revenue for the region (black) and revenue from NEFMC managed species (red).](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/comm-revenue-gom-1.png)

![Revenue change from the 2015 base year in 2015 dollars (black), Price (PI), and Volume Indicators (VI) for commercial benthivore landings in the Gulf of Maine](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/bennet-gom-1.png)

]

---
## Commercial fisheries: Landings (Georges Bank)
.pull-left[
* No long term trends for NEFMC-managed species
* Fluctuations, like revenue, associated with rotational management
* Planktivore landings (mainly Atlantic herring) returned to the long term average

![Total commercial seafood landings (black) and New England managed seafood landings (red).](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/total-landings-gb-1.png)
]

.pull-right[
![NEFMC managed species landings (red) and total commercial landings (black) by feeding group on Georges Bank.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/comm-landings-gb-1.png)
]
---
## Commercial fisheries: Landings (Gulf of Maine)
.pull-left[
* Significant decrease in NEFMC-managed commercial seafood production (non-bait landings)
* Several long-term negative trends
* Non-NEFMC managed benthivores increasing
* Drop in lobster landings in 2019 (not-included) likely to have impacts

![Total commercial seafood landings (black) and New England managed seafood landings (red).](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/total-landings-gom-1.png)
]

.pull-right[
![NEFMC managed species landings (red) and total commercial landings (black) by feeding group on Gulf of Maine.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/comm-landings-gom-1.png)
]

---
## Other ocean uses: wind energy fish habitat overlap

<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
<tr>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden" colspan="1"></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - North</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Proposed - North</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - Mid</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Proposed - Mid</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - South</div></th>
</tr>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Season </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Trend </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Clearnose Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Silver Hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spotted Hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fourspot Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Northern Searobin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Clearnose Skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Smooth Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Sea Scallop </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Fourspot Flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish/Spotted Hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

.pull-left[
![Map of BOEM existing (black) and proposed (red) lease areas in North (N), Mid (M) and South (S) portions of the coast as of February 2019.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/wind-hab-1.png)
]

.pull-right[
## Fishery overlap to be added

## What habitat model outputs most useful?
]

---
## Protected species

.pull-left[
North Atlantic right whale abundance

![1990-2018 right whale abundance estimates with 95\% credible intervals. These values represent the estimated number of animals alive sometime during the year referenced and NOT at the end of the year referenced. Three known deaths were recorded in 2018, but these deaths were not reflected in the 2018 estimate because those animals were alive sometime during the year. An additional 10 known deaths occurred in 2019.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/NARW-abundance-1.png)

**New indicator**

North Atlantic right whale calf births

![Number of North Atlantic right whale calf births, 1990 - 2019.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/NARW-calf-abundance-1.png)

]

.pull-right[
Seal population snapshots

+ ~75,000 harbor seals, trend analysis in progress

+ 30,000 - 40,000 grey seals in US; 425,000 in Canada and &nearr;

Seal diet studies in progress

Unusual Mortality Events

+ [North Atlantic right whales](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/2017-2020-north-atlantic-right-whale-unusual-mortality-event)

+ [Humpback whales](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/2016-2020-humpback-whale-unusual-mortality-event-along-atlantic-coast)

+ [Minke whales](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/marine-life-distress/2017-2020-minke-whale-unusual-mortality-event-along-atlantic-coast)

+ [Grey, harbor, hooded, and harp seals](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/marine-life-distress/2018-2019-pinniped-unusual-mortality-event-along)

]

---
## Fish stock status

![Summary of single species status for NEFMC and jointly managed stocks (Goosefish and Spiny dogfish).](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/stock-status-1.png)
---
## Aggregate fish distribution and southern species
.pull-left[
Overall fish biomass tracking northeast and deeper

![Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/spec-dist1-1.png)

]
.pull-right[
Southern species not increasing in surveys, but further north?

![Blue runner presence on Northeast Shelf](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/blue-runner-1.png)
]

---
## Updated fish feeding groups to look at aggregate biomass

<table class="table" style="font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Feeding groups and management bodies.</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Feeding Group </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> MAFMC </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Joint </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> NEFMC </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> State or Other </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Apex Predator </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Piscivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> bluefish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid, summer flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> goosefish, spiny dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Planktivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic mackerel, butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> atlantic herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> black sea bass, scup, tilefish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthos </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> sea scallop </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs) </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## Aggregate fish biomass (Offshore)

.center[
![Spring (left) and fall (right) NEFSC surveyed biomass on Georges Bank. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/gb-biomass-ne-1.png)
]

---
## Aggregate fish biomass (Inshore)

.center[
![Spring (left) and fall (right) surveyed biomass from the MA state inshore bottom trawl survey. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/MA-inshore-1.png)
]

---
## Fish condition

Female fish "fatness" from fall surveys
.pull-left-30[
**Georges Bank**

&nbsp;

**Gulf of Maine**
]

.pull-right-70[

![:img Condition factor for fish species in the GB, 200%](EDAB_images/GBcondition_2019_viridis_final.jpg)

![:img Condition factor for fish species in the GOM,  250%](EDAB_images/GOMcondition_2019_viridis_final.jpg)
]

---
## Forage fish energy density (New)

* Forage fish energy content varies seasonally and annually
* Atlantic herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s

<table class="table" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
<tr>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden" colspan="1"></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Spring 2017</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Fall 2017</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Spring 2018</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Fall 2018</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Total</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="1"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">1980s</div></th>
<th style="border-bottom:hidden; padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="1"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">1990s</div></th>
</tr>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Species </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> N </th>
   <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> ED </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> ED (SD) </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.84 (1.62) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 128 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.12 (1.46) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.45 (1.21) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 47 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.41 (1.6) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 42 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.1 (1.62) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 267 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.4 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. Herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.34 (0.94) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 122 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.77 (1.31) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 52 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.69 (0.85) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 51 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.41 (1.34) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.69 (1.19) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 275 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 10.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.4 (1.4) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. Mackerel </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.24 (1.13) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.33 (0.86) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 51 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.89 (1.07) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.48 (1.32) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 151 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.0 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.13 (1.59) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 65 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.31 (1.45) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 89 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.91 (1.12) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 53 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.1 (2.7) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.92 (2.04) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 257 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.2 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Illex </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.54 (0.4) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 77 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.43 (0.51) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 52 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.5 (0.52) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.76 (0.79) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.33 (0.63) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 229 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 7.1 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.9 (0.56) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Loligo </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.22 (0.36) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 83 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.24 (0.26) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 60 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.84 (0.63) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 52 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.6 (0.72) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.02 (0.56) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 245 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 5.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Sand lance </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.66 (0.54) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 18 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.78 (0.34) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 60 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.99 (0.74) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.17 (0.81) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 86 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 6.8 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.4 (0.82) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Silver hake </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.25 (0.39) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 189 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.42 (0.45) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.19 (0.39) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.55 (0.63) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 50 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 4.31 (0.46) </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 339 </td>
   <td style="text-align:right;"> 4.6 </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;">  </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## Habitat condition: large ocean current changes

.pull-left[
![:img Three dimensional map of the Northeast US shelf showing major bottom, current, and other oceanographic features: Mid-Atlantic bight with the cold pool, circulation on Georges Bank and in the Gulf of Maine, the Scotian Shelf off Canada, the Labrador Current coming from the North and the Gulf Stream offshore with associated warm core and cold core rings spinning off. Precipitation over land affects water quality in the Chesapeake Bay., 120%](EDAB_images/NEFMC_NE_SHELF_MAP.png)

* More northerly Gulf Stream
* More Gulf Stream warm core rings
* Almost no Labrador slope water entering the Gulf of Maine 2017-2019

]

.pull-right[
![Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall. Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/GSI-1.png)

![Interannual Variability of the WCR formation between 1980 and 2019. The regime shift (denoted by the split in the red solid line) is significant at the turn of the century.  Figure reproduced with permission from Gangopadhyay, et al. (2019).  2018 and 2019 data points based on personal communication with A. Gangopadhyay (2020).](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/warm-core-rings-1.png)

![Proportion of Warm Slope Water (WSW) and Labrador slope water (LSLW) entering the GOM through the Northeast Channel.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/wsw-prop-1.png)
]

---
## Regional temperatures
.pull-left-60[
Seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies
![GOM and GB 2019 seasonal sea surface temperature spatial anomalies.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/NE-SST-insitu-1.png)

]

.pull-right-40[
Annual bottom temperature anomalies
![GOM and GB annual bottom temperature anomalies.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/NE-bot-temp-1.png)
]

---
## Marine heatwaves: Georges Bank (New)
.pull-left[
* Three distinct marine heatwaves
* Strongest: Aug 17 - Sept 5 (20 days)
  * 15th maximum intensity (+3.14 °C above average on Aug 23)
* Strongest heatwaves
  * Maximum intensity - 2016 (+4.06 °C above average)
  * Cumulative intensity - 2012 (485 °C-days) 
]

.pull-right[
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

![img: January - December 2019 sea surface temperatures above 90th percentile of average, 90%](EDAB_images/GB_heatwave.jpeg)

]

.center[
![Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) on Georges Bank.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/gb-heatwave-1.png)
]

---
## Marine heatwaves: Georges Bank (New)

.center[
![Maximum intensity heatwave anomaly on Georges Bank occurring on August 23, 2019.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/gb-heatwave-max-1.png)
]

---
## Marine heatwaves: Gulf of Maine (New)
.pull-left[
* Four distinct marine heatwaves
* Strongest: July 3 - Aug 24 (53 days)
  * 12th maximum intensity (+3.27 °C above average on Aug 1)
  * 12th cumulative intensity (112 °C-days)
* Strongest heatwaves 
  * Maximum intensity - 2010 (+4.83 °C above average)
  * Cumulative intensity - 2012 (630 °C-days)
]

.pull-right[
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

![img: January - December 2019 sea surface temperatures above 90th percentile of average, 90%](EDAB_images/GOM_heatwave.jpeg)

]

.center[
![Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) in the Gulf of Maine .](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/gom-heatwave-1.png)
]

---
## Marine heatwaves: Gulf of Maine (New)

.center[
![Maximum intensity heatwave anomaly in Gulf of Maine occurring on August 1, 2019.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/gom-heatwave-max-1.png)
]

---
## Patterns in primary production
* Above average primary production
  * Summer production (warmer, nutrient recycling)
  * likely smaller-celled species
* Spring bloom below average both regions

.pull-left[
&nbsp;
![:img Map of 2019 chlorophyll a anomalies by season from satellite data, 100%](EDAB_images/CHL_SEASONAL_ANOMS_2019.png)
]

.pull-right[
![Weekly chlorophyll concentrations and primary productivity for 2019 in Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank are shown by the colored lines in the above figures. The long-term mean is shown in black and shading indicates +/- 1 sample SD.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/NE-chl-weekly-1.png)
]

---
## Patterns in Zooplankton
* Large-bodied are mostly *Calanus finmarchicus* (an important prey
for larval fish and the north Atlantic right whale)
  * Low abundance in GOM 2010-2014, GB 2010-2017
* Abundance of small-bodied *Temora longicornis* and *Centropages typicus* highest value observed in 2018

![Abundance anomaly time series for copepod size groups found in the GOM and GB.](20200414_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/NE-zoo-abund-1.png)

---
## SOE Take Home Messages
.center[
![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/5_FISHING.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/6_INDUSTRY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png)
]

* Proportion of total primary production required to support commercial landings declining
--

* Moderately engaged communities have increased since 2004
--

* New England commercial fisheries remain dependent on single species
  * Gulf of Maine - lobster
  * Georges Bank - scallops
--

* 2018 commercial catch and revenue increased in both New England ecosystems
  * 2019 lobster catch is down substantially
--

* Habitat modeling indicates several species that are highly likely to occupt wind energy lease areas
  * Habitat conditions have become more favorable over time for most

---
## SOE Take Home Messages
.center[
![:img Other fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/14_OTHERFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/13_FORAGEFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Invertebrate icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/15_INVERTEBRATES.png)
]

* Few apparent trends in aggregate biomass of predators, forage fish, bottom feeders, and shellfish sampled by trawl surveys
  * Haddock biomass is high
--

* Continued northward shift in aggregate fish distribution and a tendency towards deeper waters
--

* Forage fish energy content shows seasonal and annual variation
  * Atlantic herring energy content half what it was in the 1980-90s

---
## SOE Take Home Messages
.center[
![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/3_CLIMATE.png)
]

* Gulf Stream increasingly unstable
  * More warm core rings
--

* Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the past 3 years
--

* Gulf of Maine
  * Bottom and surface temperatures are high
  * Marine heat waves more common since 2010
  * Small bodied zooplankton more abundant than large fatty zooplankton
  * Spring blooms have been below average since 2013
--

* Georges Bank
  * Also warming with increased marine heat waves
  * A number of warm core rings surrounded Georges Bank in the summer
  * Also dominated by small-bodied zooplankton

---
## External Resources

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* [Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna)
  * [Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions)
  * [Lower trophic level indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL)

* [ERDDAP server](https://comet.nefsc.noaa.gov/erddap/index.html)

* [NOAA SOE summary webpage](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations/

Contacts:  <sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov>, <sean.lucey@noaa.gov>, <scott.large@noaa.gov>

---
## Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 intstitutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) <br>
Andy Beet<br>
Patricia Clay<br>
Lisa Colburn<br>
Geret DePiper<br>
Michael Fogarty<br>
Paula Fratantoni <br>
Kevin Friedland<br>
Sarah Gaichas<br>
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)<br>
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)<br>
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br>
Sean Hardison<br>
Kimberly Hyde<br>
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)<br>
John Kocik<br>
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society)<br>
Scott Large
]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society)<br>
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)<br>
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br>
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br>
Sean Lucey<br>
Chris Melrose<br>
Ryan Morse<br>
Kimberly Murray<br>
Chris Orphanides<br>
Richard Pace<br>
Charles Perretti<br>
Vincent Saba<br>
Laurel Smith<br>
Mark Terceiro<br>
John Walden<br>
Harvey Walsh<br>
Mark Wuenschel
]
]

.center[
![:img NOAA Fisheries IEA logo, 40%](EDAB_images/noaa-iea.png)
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/SOE_feature_image.png")
background-size: contain

.footnote[Questions? Thank you!]