State of the Ecosystem:

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

# State of the Ecosystem:
## New England 2019
### Sean Hardison, Sarah Gaichas, Sean Lucey, Scott Large <br /> Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment <br /> Integrated Statistics & Northeast Fisheries Science Center

---

class: top, left

# Today's Talk

.pull-left[

- An introduction to the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank ecosystem

- Integrated Ecosystem Assessment and ecosystem reporting

- State of the Ecosystem: Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

]

.pull-right[
*Gulf of Maine & Georges Bank<sup>1</sup>*
![iea-loop](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/gulf-of-maine-map.png)
]

.footnote[
[1] [Gulf of Maine in Context](http://www.gulfofmaine.org/state-of-the-gulf/docs/the-gulf-of-maine-in-context.pdf)
]

???
---
## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: Spatial footprint

* A "sea within a sea"
  * GOM extends from MA to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia
* Bound to the south by Georges Bank, to the east by the Scotian Shelf

.footnote[
[Gulf of Maine in Context](http://www.gulfofmaine.org/state-of-the-gulf/docs/the-gulf-of-maine-in-context.pdf)
]

???
Gulf of Maine is a semi-enclosed sea that extends from MA to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to the Northeast.

The waters of GOM are bound by Georges Bank to the south and the Scotian Shelf to the east.

The darker region in this figure shows the watershed serving Gulf of Maine, which total to around 70,000 sq miles of land area in the US and Canada

---

## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: Climate

.pull-left[
* Climate varaibility in GOM and GB are driven large-scale cycles like the **North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)** and **Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)**

* NAO: A [teleconnection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teleconnection) of inverted atmospheric pressures over Greenland and the central North Atlantic<sup>1</sup>
  * Positive phases linked to warmer temperatures in New England
  * NAO mediates influence of Gulf Stream waters in GOM
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/nao-positive.gif" width="80%" />
]

.footnote[
[1] [NAO](https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.html.031500)

[2] [Gulf of Maine in Context](http://www.gulfofmaine.org/state-of-the-gulf/docs/the-gulf-of-maine-in-context.pdf)
]

???
Teleconnection - A causal relationship between climate conditions over some distance

---

## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: Climate

.pull-left[
* **Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)**: A pattern of sea-surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic occurring over 60-80 year period.

* Identified by detrending climate change signal from SST time series

* Large-scale climate variability has cascading effects in ecosystem processes (e.g. primary prod., copepod diapause, recruitment...)
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/amo-time-series.png" width="100%" />

]

.footnote[
Trenberth, Kevin, Zhang, Rong & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 10 Jan 2019. "The Climate Data Guide: Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)." Retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/atlantic-multi-decadal-oscillation-amo.
]

---

## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: Geology and Geomorphology

.footnote[
Source: https://www.northeastoceandata.org/
]

???
The image here shows the underlying topography of the Northeast Shelf, where areas in purple are depressions and whitish regions are raised seabeds. Shallow sloping regions are shown in green, and steeper slopes in red and orange.

The southern and western portions of the Gulf are characterized by more gently sloping topography covered by thick sediments and glacial deposits.

The northern and eastern portions are characterized by exposed Paleozoic rocks dating to 250 mya. The topography in this region is composed of series of irregular channels and ridges.

In this figure, Georges Bank is clearly visible as a raised landmass extending to the continental slope. Georges Bank is unique as being a shallow and well-mixed offshore region, allowing for high primary production and a reputation as one of the historically most productive fisheries in the world.

---
## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: Chlorophyll *a* production

<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/NE_chl_monthly.gif" width="65%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.image-cap[Monthly average chlorophyll *a* in the NE-LME during 2017 (*Image credit: Dr. Kimberly Hyde/NOAA Fisheries*).]

.footnote[
[Learn more](https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/northeast/phytoplankton#environmentalDrivers)
]

---

## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: Oceanography

.footnote[
Townsend, D. W., Pettigrew, N. R., Thomas, M. A., Neary, M. G., McGillidcuddy, D. J., O'Donnell, J (2015), Water masses and nutrient sources to the Gulf of Maine, Journal of Marine Research, 73: 93-122.
]

???
Regional currents are major influencers of ocean temperatures in the NW Atlantic, and the two biggest players in Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank are the Labrador Current and Gulf Stream.

The Labrador Current is composed of deep, nutrient-rich waters that flow southwards and into Gulf of Maine through the Northeast Channel (point it out). The percentage of Labrador Slope Water entering into Gulf of Maine is mediated by the northern position of the Gulf Stream. A more northerly Gulf Stream (called the "North Wall") is associated with warmer water temperatures in the region.

Shelf waters moving into GOM through the Northeast Channel result in a counter-clockwise flow in the Gulf and a clockwise pattern on Georges Bank.

The influence of Labrador Shelf Water in Gulf of Maine is also influenced by the NAO. When the NAO is in a positive state, the transport of Labrador Shelf Water is relatively low and less enters into GOM.

---
## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: Biodiversity

* 652 fish species (transient or permanent)
* 271 species of large marine alga
* 1410 invertebrate species
* 6 marine turtles
* 32 marine mammal species 
* &gt; 184 species of seabirds

.footnote[
[Gulf of Maine in Context](http://www.gulfofmaine.org/state-of-the-gulf/docs/the-gulf-of-maine-in-context.pdf)
]

???
Ice-free winters and high fish abundance supports breeding, migrating or staging, and non-breeding populations of birds across the Gulf.

---
## Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank: It's complicated.

How can we manage resources effectively while accounting for ecosystem complexities?

???
It's not surprising to know that all of these components to the ecosystem are linked in some direct or indirect way. The real question then becomes, from the perspective of managing the system, how can we make use of this information?

---
## Ecosystem-based fishery management
.pull-left[
* Considers **social**, **economic**, and **ecological trade-offs** across multiple fisheries and habitats

* Complements existing single species management approaches

* Why EBFM?
  * NOAA responsible for 450 regulated stocks, 150 endangered species, 100 marine mammal species, 11 marine ecosystems under the law
  * Most efficient path towards sustainability and resiliency under future uncertainties
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/ebfm_infographic.jpg" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.image-cap[
Different approaches to ecosystem management. (Image credit: [NOAA Fisheries](https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/Assets/ecosystems/ebfm/images/ebfm%20infographic_final-01.jpg)).
]
]
.footnote[
[More on EBFM](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/insight/understanding-ecosystem-based-fisheries-management)
]

???
Tackling that question requires managing from a holistic perspective, which manifests as what is known as ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Magnuson-Stevens, Endangered Species Act, National Environmental Protection Act...

---
## How to implement EBFM: Integrated ecosystem assessments
<br>
<br>
**The IEA Loop**
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/iea-loop-explanation.png" width="85%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.footnote[
[Levin et al. 2009](https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1000014)
]

---
## New England State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reports

.pull-left[

**Goal: Bringing relevant ecosystem information to New England Fishery Management Council**

### Report Structure
1. Human dimensions

2. Protected species

3. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)

4. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
]

.pull-right[
.table[
<table class="table" style="width: 50; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Ecosystem-scale objectives and indicators on the Northeast US shelf</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Seafood Production </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings by feeding guild </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Profits </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue by feeding guild </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Recreation </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of anglers and trips; recreational catch </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Stability </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and species) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Commercial and recreational reliance </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Productivity </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Trophic structure </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, primary productivity </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Habitat </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

.footnote[
[New England SOE Report (PDF warning)](https://s3.amazonaws.com/nefmc.org/11_SOE-NEFMC-2019.pdf)

[Mid-Atlantic SOE Report (PDF warning)](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/511cdc7fe4b00307a2628ac6/t/5c9e16a67817f735bab0e23f/1553864370795/Tab09_State+of+the+Ecosystem+Report_2019-04.pdf)
]

---
## SOE Orientation: Indicator visualization

Status (short-term) and trend (long-term) of components are measured as **indicators** and plotted in a standardized way

Indicators are selected to

1. Be broadly informative about a component in a management context<sup>1-3</sup>

1. Minimize redundancy of information

1. Be responsive to ecosystem change

.footnote[
[1] Rice J. C.Rochet M. J. "A framework for selecting a suite of indicators for fisheries management." ICES Journal of Marine Science 62 (2005): 516–527.

[2] Link J. 2010. Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management: Confronting Tradeoffs . Cambridge University Press, New York.

[3] Zador, Stephani G., et al. "Ecosystem considerations in Alaska: the value of qualitative assessments." ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.1 (2017): 421-430.
]

---

## SOE Orientation: Indicator spatial scales

.footnote[
https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/epu.html
]

---

## SOE Orientation: Feeding guilds
.table[
<table class="table table-striped table-hover" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Feeding guilds and management bodies.</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Guild </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> MAFMC </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> Joint </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> NEFMC </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;"> State or Other </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Apex Predator </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Piscivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> bluefish, summer flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> goosefish, spiny dogfish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Planktivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic mackerel, butterfish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> atlantic herring </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthivore </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> black sea bass, scup, tilefish </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthos </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> sea scallop </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs) </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
???
* Feeding guilds assigned based on NEFSC food habits data base
  * Food habits change with age and size, so guilds assigned based on most common size class

* Simplified from existing guild structures<sup>1,2</sup>

.footnote[
[1] Garrison, Lance P, and Jason S Link. 2000. “Dietary guild structure of the fish community in the Northeast United States continental shelf ecosystem.” Marine Ecology Progress Series 202:231–40.

[2] Link, Jason S, Carolyn A Griswold, Elizabeth T Methratta, and Jessie Gunnard. 2006. Documentation for the energy modeling and analysis exercise (EMAX). US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic; Atmospheric Administration.
]

Because we focus on ecosystem context, we've aggregated species in most of our indicators up to the level of feeding guild, shown here.

These feeding guilds were derived from NEFSC food habits data and existing guilds identified in the literature

---

## Community engagement and reliance on commercial fisheries in New England

* High social-ecological reliance on scallop and lobster
* Species considered moderately to highly at risk due to climate change (OA, temp)

???
Many social-ecological systems in New England are reliant on lobster, as in Gulf of Maine, or scallop, for Georges Bank. As these species are considered moderately to highly at risk due to climate change, the communities dependent on them could be a heightened risk as well.

Maine and South coast of MA have high reliance
---
## Drivers of commercial fisheries in New England

**Lobsters** in Gulf of Maine and **sea scallops** on Georges Bank are the largest economic drivers of commercial fisheries in New England.

???
This reliance becomes apparent if we look at the breakdown of catch volume and prices by feeding guild.

In these figures, the catch price is shown in blue and the catch volume is shown in green, and total revenue change from the long term is shown by the black line. It's not perfect, but it's relatively clear that the benthivore feeding guild is driving revenue in Gulf of Maine and benthos in Georges Bank.

---
## Challenges: Long-term decline in seafood production

???
Along with strong reliance on a few species in New England, we've also seen a decline in catch of managed species since the mid 1980s.

---
## Recreational fishing

.pull-left[
NE: 
* Positive long-term trend for diversity of catch in New England recreational fisheries

* Overall decline in rec seafood harvest since 1980s
  * Trending upwards since mid-90s

* Increase in recreational effort (n anglers) since the mid 90s
]
.pull-right[
![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/rec-div1-1.png)
]

???
While commercial fisheries have high specialization of catch, there's a positive long-term trend for recreational catch diversity in the recreational sector.

Updated Marine Recreational Information Program data shows that there's been an upswing in harvest since the mid-90s, although the trend overall is negative

An increase in diversity of recreational catch will likely benefit communities that are reliant upon recreational fisheries by increasing their resilience to ecosystem changes.

---

## Protected species interactions: Harbor porpoise

Current bycatch levels suggest that management actions have been effective in reducing harbor porpoise bycatch

???
The maps here show density estimates of the widely distributed harbor porpoise in the spring and fall months, as estimated by the Atlantic Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species.

The red line in the time series plot shows the potential biological removal. Above this line removals from the population will prevent the stock from reaching a stable population size.

2016 and 2017 estimates for bycatch are among the lowest values in the series, suggest that management actions have been effective in reducing harbor porpoise bycatch.

---
## Protected species interactions: NARW

**North Atlantic right whales (NARW)**
  * Strong consensus of population decline
  * Diverging abundance trends between sexes, with higher female mortality rates

* Evidence suggests that the level of interaction between NARWs, fixed gear (US and CAN) is contributing to the decline of the species

* 20 NARW deaths in 2017 and 2018, >50% due to human interactions (5 vessel strike, 6 entanglement)

???
Fisheries interactions are the largest contributor to NARW mortality, with more than half of the mortality events in 2018-2019 attributed to vessel strikes or entanglement

Changing ecosystem conditions may contribute to increased interactions between NARW and fisheries.

Changes in fishery management to address the issue of fishery interactions with protected species could have large implications for the fixed gear sector, and particularly for pot gear fisheries like lobster.

---
## Proctected species interactions: Grey seals

* MA grey seal population between 30-40,000 individuals

* Annual grey seal bycatch mortality ~900

* Unusual Mortality Event declared for seals (grey and harbor)

* Seal diet studies underway to understand role in fisheries

<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/grayseals-noaa-nefsc-psb.jpg" width="50%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.image-cap[
*Image credit: NOAA Fisheries*
]

???
Unusual mortality event in gray and harbor seals may be caused by phocine distemper virus

---

## Challenge: Unprecedented ecosystem observations

* Northeast US shelf is still among the fastest warming waters globally
  * 7/10 warmest years observed in the past decade
  
* Most northerly Gulf Stream north wall positions ever recorded 2014-2017 
  * associated with warmer ocean temperature in the Northeast US shelf

Advice for managing in the face of rapid, unprecedented ecosystem changes?

.pull-left[

![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/long-term sst-1.png)
*NE Shelf Long-term SST*
]

.pull-right[
![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/GSI-1.png)
*Gulf Stream Index*
]

???
SST
Figure on left shows estimated time series of SST extending back to to 1850s. 
*7 out of 10 of the hottest years have been in the past decade

GSI
The figure on the right shows that deviation from the mean latitude of the north wall of the gulf stream, showing anomalously high value for the past 5 years

---
## Ocean circulation in NW Atlantic

???
Regional currents are major influencers of ocean temperatures in the NW Atlantic

The Gulf Stream is a reliable indicator of bottom water temps

An offshoot of the gulf stream is the warm slope water, which makes its way into gulf of maine through the northeast channel

---
## Challenges: Ocean circulation

---
## Challenges: A warming Shelf

Warming oceans have implications for suitable fish habitat, which is predicted to decline for many NE species<sup>1</sup>

.footnote[
Kleisner, Kristin M., et al. "Marine species distribution shifts on the US Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming." Progress in Oceanography 153 (2017): 24-36.
]

???
These changes have implications for fish populations in the region that are already at the southern extent of their ranges, like Atlantic cod. Suitable habitat for these species is predicted to contract as waters continue to warm.

* Gulf of Maine summer SSTs were the highest on record in 2018 (~3°C > long-term mean)

---
## Challenges: A warming Shelf

* Bottom temperatures are also increasing in the region

---
## Management implications: species shifts

???
Making use of the NEFSC bottom trawl data which extends back to the 1960s, we can quantify how species distributions on the shelf have changed through time by estimating the yearly centroids of their distributions.

The predominant pattern across species is a shift northwards and into deeper waters. These shifts are due to a number of factors, including fishing pressures and climate changes

A clear example of this occurring is the American lobster, whose populations have become more productive in Gulf of Maine compared to the northern Mid-Atlantic due to favorable climate conditions.

---
## Management implications: species shifts

**Mass and Maine/New Hampshire Inshore Surveys + NEFSC Offshore Survey Trends**

.pull-left[

<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/menh-survey-strata.png" width="80%" />

<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/ma-survey-strata.png" width="80%" />
]

---
## Implications for protected species: Common tern diet

.pull-left[
* Warmer waters affect vertical distribution of prey species
  * Results in more generalist diet choices
  
* High diet diversity in past decade may be the result of decreases in preferred prey type (hake, sandlance)
  * Butterfish appear in diet in warm years, are difficult to digest; may cause starvation
]
.pull-right[
![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/tern-diet-diversity-1.png)
]
---
## Implications for protected species: North Atlantic Right Whale range shifts

*Record et al. 2019* examines the role of warming deepwater in western Gulf of Maine on *Calanus finmarchicus* and North Atlantic right whale

**North Atlantic right whale distributions affected by climate driven changes in *C. finmarchicus* abundance in western Gulf of Maine**

---
## Implications for protected species: North Atlantic Right Whale range shifts

.pull-left[
**Western GOM**
* Recent *C. finmarchicus* abundance in W. GOM has been highest ever in recent years
  * Why? *C. finmarchicus* supplied by highly productive Maine Coastal Current can reproduce rapidly and mediate effects of warming.
  * NARW + *C. finmarchicus* conditions remain favorable in W. GOM
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/record-et-al-fig.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.image-cap[
Significant abundance changes in *Calanus* shown in blue (negative) and red (positive). ([Record et al. 2019](https://cloudup.com/iFB8decQWOs))
  ]
]

---
## Implications for protected species: North Atlantic Right Whale range shifts

.pull-left[
**Eastern GOM**
* Deepwater warming contributes to high mortality of dormant copepods
* More Gulf Stream influence in Gulf means less supply of copepods into GOM

**The result? NARWs favor western GOM and Canadian waters for foraging.**
]

---
## Changing base of the food web: primary production

* Summer PP is increasing in New England
  * Driven by warmer temperatures and increased bacterial remineralization and nutrient recycling
  * Increasing primary production likely due to higher productivity of smaller phytoplankton

![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/pp-trends-1.png)

???
* Driven by warmer temperatures and increased bacterial remineralization and nutrient recycling
* Increasing primary production likely due to higher productivity of smaller phytoplankton

---
## Changing base of the food web: Zooplankton size structure

* Lower copepod size index means higher abundance of large copepods (<i>Calanus</i>)
* Primary production may play a role in zooplankton size dynamics on the shelf

???
To assess the size structure of copepods in the region, we use the small-large index.
* A measure of relative size composition of the dominant copepod taxa
* A lower value means higher abundance of large copepods (<i>Calanus</i>)
* Primary production may play a role in copepod size dynamics***

---

## Changing base of the food web and fish conditions

* Fish condition is measured at the weight at a given length relative to the average
  * Drop-off in condition around 2000 aligns with the shift in zooplankton size-structure on the shelf

*NEFMC Condition Factor*
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/NEFMC_Fish_Condition_2019.jpg" width="75%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

???
Looking at condition in aggregate across all managed stocks, we can see a clear decline in condition between 2000-2010

Recent improvement within past decade

Interestingly, the drop-off in condition around 2000 resembles a shift in zooplankton size-structure on the shelf, and this is a topic for future research

---
## External Resources

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* [Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna)
  * [Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions)
  * [Lower trophic level indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL)
  
* [ERDDAP server](https://comet.nefsc.noaa.gov/erddap/index.html)

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations/20190522_Audubon_Hardison.html

---
## Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 institutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) <br>
Amani Bassyouni (Virginia Department of Health)<br>
Lisa Calvo (Rutgers)<br>
Matthew Camisa (MA Division of Marine Fisheries) <br>
Patricia Clay<br>
Lisa Colburn<br>
Geret DePiper<br>
Deb Duarte<br>
Michael Fogarty<br>
Paula Fratantoni <br>
Kevin Friedland<br>
Sarah Gaichas<br>
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)<br>
Heather Haas<br>
Sean Hardison <br>
Kimberly Hyde<br>
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)<br>
John Kosik<br>
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society)<br>
Scott Large
]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society)<br>
Loren Kellogg<br>
David Kulis (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)<br>
Sean Lucey<br>
Chris Melrose<br>
Ryan Morse<br>
Kimberly Murray<br>
Chris Orphanides<br>
Richard Pace<br>
Charles Perretti<br>
Karl Roscher (Maryland Department of Natural Resources)<br>
Vincent Saba<br>
Laurel Smith<br>
Mark Terceiro<br>
John Walden<br>
Harvey Walsh<br>
Mark Wuenschel<br>
Qian Zhang (Unversity of Maryland and US EPA Chesapeake Bay Program)
]
]

---
## Surveys trends: Maine/New Hampshire Inshore Survey
.pull-left[
![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/inshore-menh-1.png)
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/menh-survey-strata.png" width="100%" />
]

.footnote[
[ME/NH Survey Protocols](https://www.maine.gov/dmr/science-research/projects/trawlsurvey/reports/documents/proceduresandprotocols.pdf)
]

---

## Surveys trends: Massachusetts Inshore Survey

.pull-left[
<img src="20190522_Audubon_Hardison_images/ma-survey-strata.png" width="100%" />
]

.pull-right[
![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/inshore-ma-1.png)
]

---
## Surveys trends: Offshore
![](20190522_Audubon_Hardison_files/figure-html/offshore-1.png)

---
## Survey trends: Inshore and offshore

---
## Survey trends: Inshore and offshore piscivores

---
## Challenges: F and B objectives

* Objectives being met for 20 stocks
  * 4 stocks below B and above F thresholds
  * Herring dropped to B/Bmsy < 1

???
While management action has had a postive impact on harbor porpoise mortality, there are multiple signals indicating challenges to meeting management goals.

Management objectives are being met for 20 species at the single species level, but 9 stocks are below biomass thresholds.