State of the Ecosystem Structure Proposed 2025

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.title[
# State of the Ecosystem Structure Proposed 2025
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.subtitle[
## SOE January Synthesis Meeting 21 January 2025
]

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# State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

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- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
 + Contextual information
 + Report evolving since 2016
 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2020></a>([Bastille et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

- Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2020></a>([Muffley et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
 
]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop1*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//iea-loop.png)

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]
???

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## Ecosystem reporting at different levels of organization

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### Ecosystem Level &rarr; SOE

![:img NE shelf map](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAFMC_NE_SHELF_MAP.png)

]

.pull-right[
### Stock Level &rarr; ESP

![:img herring cons mod](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/AherringConceptualMod.png)

Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

]

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## Using ecosystem information at the stock level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

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![GOA pcod ESP conceptual model](https://media.fisheries.noaa.gov/styles/media_750_x500/s3/2022-03/Working_Conceptual_Model_EBS%20Pcod.png)

![:img Bluefish ESP conceptual model](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/bluefishconceptualmodel.png)

.footnote[
Images courtesy [ASFC](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/2021-alaska-fisheries-science-center-year-review), and Abigail Tyrell and Emily Liljestrand, NEFSC
]

]

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![:img bottom temp in BSB assessment, 50%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Ecov_1_North_BT.png)![:img GOA cod risk assessment, 50%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/GOApcodESPrisk.png)

![:img ESP decisions](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/ESPdecisionsupporttable2.png)

]

---
## State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2024 structure for 2025
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## 2025 Report Structure
1. Graphical summary
    + Page 1 report card re: objectives &rarr;
    + Page 2 risk summary bullets
    + Page 3 2024 snapshot
1. Performance relative to management objectives
1. Risks to meeting management objectives
    + Climate and Ecosystem risks
    + Offshore wind development

![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 45%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_2.png)![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets, 45%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_3.png)

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<table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Provisioning and Cultural Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Supporting and Regulating Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

* Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. 
* Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.  
* Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

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![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SystemDrivers_v5.jpg)
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![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg)
]

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## Report structure 2021-2024, maintain in 2025: towards improved synthesis

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* Performance relative to management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Objectives
    - Seafood production
    - Profits
    - Recreational opportunities
    - Stability
    - Social and cultural
    - Protected species
]

.pull-right[
* Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    - Same *What* and *Why* as Performance Section
    - New structure for Climate section
        - Fishery risk indicator
        - Climate and ecosystem drivers of fishery risk
        - Future considerations
* Risk categories
    + *Climate and Ecosystem Change*
        + *Risk to spatial management*
        + *Risk to seasonal management*
        + *Risk to quota setting/rebuilding*
    + Other ocean uses
        + Offshore wind development
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

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Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html) (2021 Memo 5), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online.  
]

.pull-right[
Key to figures
<img src="20250121_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="396" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

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# 2025 Changes: Trend assessment

.pull-left[
## Recent short term trends assessed

Andy's [`arfit` R package](https://noaa-edab.github.io/arfit/articles/background_work.html) integrated into `ecodata`

Tests for significant trend, null hypothesis is mean with autocorrelation (no trend)

Apply to most recent 10 years of each dataset

## No more polynomial long term trends assessed

Decision based on how strange some of them looked

Has implications for risk assessment scoring
]

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<img src="20250121_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="504" />

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background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/2025SOEtimeline.png")
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# 2025 Report Timeline

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**All participants:**

This meeting, Jan 21-23

Group edit, Jan 27-Feb 7

**Lead editors:**

Internal review, Feb 14-28

Document public: Mar 7

SSC presentations: March

Council presentations: April

NOAA IR: May
]

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.center[
# Review of 2024 Summary results

These are the basis of 2025--discuss what to change
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## Mid Atlantic State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: 
**Performance relative to management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Recreational opportunities:  Effort ![:img increasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//increase.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); Effort diversity ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Stability: Fishery ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

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## New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: 
**Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank**

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Seafood production Total ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), Managed ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), Both ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png)

Recreational opportunities:  Effort ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Stability: Fishery ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), Commercial ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species: 
*  Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)  
*  Recover endangered populations ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), NARW ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Gray seal ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png)  
]

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## New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: 
**Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine**

Profits Total ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); NEFMC Managed ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

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Recreational opportunities:  Effort ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

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## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: 
**Risks to meeting fishery management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Climate: risks to spatial and seasonal management, quota setting and rebuilding
*  Fish and protected species distribution shifts
*  Changing spawning and migration timing
*  Multiple stocks with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development
*  Current revenue in proposed areas
    - 1-23% by Mid-Atlantic port (some with EJ concerns)
    - 1–34% by New England port (some with EJ concerns)
    - 1-20% by MAFMC managed species
    - 3-54% by NEFMC managed species
*  Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
*  Gulf of Maine fisheries/offshore wind IEA in progress
]
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## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024:
**New section in 2024: 2023 Highlights**

.pull-left-60[
Notable 2023 events and conditions

*  South Fork Wind and Vineyard Wind 1 construction started
*  Scallop die-off elephant trunk 2022-2023
*  Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer
*  Record *low* hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay
*  GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale
*  2nd ranked GOM bottom heatwave
*  Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf
*  Gulf Stream changes altering shelf break habitats
*  El Nino. Warmest year on record globally. Again.
]

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]

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# Council Requests from 2024 and Prioritization

]

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## 2025 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo in progress

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1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-2fd22e2a{width:2.832in;background-color:rgba(245, 245, 220, 1.00);vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 1pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-top: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-2fd22e2b{width:4.438in;background-color:rgba(245, 245, 220, 1.00);vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 1pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-top: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}</style><table data-quarto-disable-processing='true' class='cl-2fd8f16a'><thead><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><th class="cl-2fd22bbe">Request</th><th class="cl-2fd22bc8">Year</th><th class="cl-2fd22bd2">Rank</th><th class="cl-2fd22bdc">Source</th><th class="cl-2fd22bdd">Status</th><th class="cl-2fd22be6">Progress</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22be7">System level thresholds/ref pts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c04">Compare EOF (Link) thresholds to empirical thresholds (Large, Tam) </td><td class="cl-2fd22c05">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c06">Highest</td><td class="cl-2fd22c0e">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c0f">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c10">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c18">Trend Analysis / Inflection / Break points</td><td class="cl-2fd22c22">2019 - 2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c23">Highest</td><td class="cl-2fd22c24">Both Councils and SSCs</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2c">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2d">Prototype analysis 2022-2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Optimum yield for ecosystem</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Highest</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c42">How does phyto size comp affect EOF indicator, if at all?</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4a">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4b">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22c54">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c55">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c5e">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Sum of TAC/ Landings relative to TAC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2021, 2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Seafood Production section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c42">Nutrient input, Benthic Flux and POC (particulate organic carbon) to inform benthic productivity by something other than surface indicators</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4a">2021, 2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4b">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22c54">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c55">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c5e">Stomach-based benthos indices in development</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Lowest</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22c5f">Management</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c7c">Incorporate social sciences survey from council</td><td class="cl-2fd22c7d">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22c7e">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22c86">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c87">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22c90">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c91">Management complexity</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9a">2019</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9b">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9c">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca4">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca5">Student work needs further analysis, no further work this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cae">Recreational bycatch mortality as an indicator of regulatory waste</td><td class="cl-2fd22caf">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb0">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb8">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb9">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22cba">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c42">Include New England ports with significant reliance on mid species be included in the Mid SOE</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4a">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4b">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c54">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c55">In SOE</td><td class="cl-2fd22c5e">Other Ocean Uses: Offshore Wind section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cc2">Re-evaluate EPUs</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc3">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc4">Lowest</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccc">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccd">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22cd6">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22cd7">Short term forecasts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cf4">Using phytoplankton trends to forecast fish stocks</td><td class="cl-2fd22cf5">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22cfe">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22cff">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d00">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22d08">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c42">Short term forecasting (water temp, productivity)</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4a">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4b">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22c54">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c55">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22c5e">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22d09">Regime shifts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d1d">Time series analysis (Zooplankton/Forage fish) to tie into regime shifts</td><td class="cl-2fd22d26">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22d27">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22d28">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d30">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22d31">Individual projects started</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Regime shifts in Social-Economic indicators</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22d3a">Multiple system drivers</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c04">Linking Condition </td><td class="cl-2fd22c05">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22c06">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22c0e">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c0f">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c10">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d50">Avg weight of diet components by feeding group</td><td class="cl-2fd22d51">2019</td><td class="cl-2fd22d58">High</td><td class="cl-2fd22d59">Internal</td><td class="cl-2fd22d62">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22d63">Part of fish condition project</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cae">Cumulative weather index</td><td class="cl-2fd22caf">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb0">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb9">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22cba">Data gathered for prototype</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c91">Fall turnover date index</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9a">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9b">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9c">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca4">In SOE</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca5">Climate and Ecosystem Productivity section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cc2">Modeling cold pool/warm core ring and wind development interactions</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc3">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc4">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccc">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccd">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22cd6">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d64">Impact of climate on data streams (changes in catchability of survey)</td><td class="cl-2fd22d65">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22d6c">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22d6d">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d6e">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22d76">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cae">Young of Year index from multiple surveys</td><td class="cl-2fd22caf">2019</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb0">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb9">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22cba">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d64">Links between species availability inshore/offshore (estuarine conditions) and trends in recreational fishing effort?</td><td class="cl-2fd22d65">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22d6c">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22d6d">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d6e">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22d76">Bluefish prey index inshore/offshore partially addresses</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Tell Social stories like we try to tell biological stories</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">GARFO</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c91">What determines a "risk"? Include aquaculture as a risk?</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9a">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9b">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9c">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca4">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca5">Climate and Ecosystem Risks revision</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d77">Profits vs Revenue</td><td class="cl-2fd22d80">2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22d81">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22d82">Both Councils</td><td class="cl-2fd22d83">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22d8a">Profit calculation for subset of fleet</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c42">OA linked to scallop harvest in areas where aragonite saturation is highlighted. </td><td class="cl-2fd22c4a">2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4b">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c54">Both Councils</td><td class="cl-2fd22c55">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22c5e">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Time series of social indicators</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">SOE evaluates changes from last year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c91">Stability indicator - yield over time in NE</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9a">2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9b">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9c">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca4">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca5">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d8b">Vessel-level diversity vs fleet level diversity</td><td class="cl-2fd22d8c">2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22d94">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22d95">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d9e">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22d9f">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c42">Inclusion of upcoming HMS climate vulnerability assessment</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4a">2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4b">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c54">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c55">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22c5e">Assessment not yet published</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cae">Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds</td><td class="cl-2fd22caf">2019</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb0">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22cb9">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22cba">Intern evaluated trends in guild diets</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c91">Environmental Justice - Further Explanation and maybe have Soc Sci folks on call to explain</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9a">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9b">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9c">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca4">In SOE</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca5">Social and cultural section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Changing per capita seafood consumption as driver of revenue?</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c91">Relate OA to nutrient input; are there "dead zones" (hypoxia)?</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9a">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9b">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22c9c">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca4">In SOE</td><td class="cl-2fd22ca5">In new 2023 Highlights section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Estuarine Water Quality</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Intern project 2021 needs expansion</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d50">Decomposition of diversity drivers highlighting social components</td><td class="cl-2fd22d51">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22d58">Lowest</td><td class="cl-2fd22d59">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d62">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22d63">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cc2">Indicators of chemical pollution in offshore waters</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc3">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc4">Lowest</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccc">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccd">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22cd6">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22da8">Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp</td><td class="cl-2fd22da9">2019</td><td class="cl-2fd22daa">Lowest</td><td class="cl-2fd22dab">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22db2">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22db3">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22dbc">Functional group level status/thresholds/ref pts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22dd0">Forage availability index (Herring/Sandlance)</td><td class="cl-2fd22dd1">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22dda">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22ddb">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22de4">In SOE</td><td class="cl-2fd22de5">Climate and Ecosystem Productivity section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22dee">VAST and uncertainty </td><td class="cl-2fd22def">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22df0">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22df8">Both Councils</td><td class="cl-2fd22df9">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22dfa">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c18">Seal index</td><td class="cl-2fd22c22">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22c23">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22c24">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2c">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c2d">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22cc2">Apex predator index (pinnipeds)</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc3">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22cc4">Low</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccc">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22ccd">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22cd6">Protected species branch developing time series</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22e02">Biomass of spp not included in BTS</td><td class="cl-2fd22e0c">2020</td><td class="cl-2fd22e0d">Lowest</td><td class="cl-2fd22e0e">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22e0f">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22e16">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22cd7">Stock level indicators</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22dd0">Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity)</td><td class="cl-2fd22dd1">2019</td><td class="cl-2fd22dda">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22ddb">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22de4">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22de5">Project with A. Hollander</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d8b">Indicator of scallop pred pops poorly sampled by bottom trawls</td><td class="cl-2fd22d8c">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22d94">Moderate</td><td class="cl-2fd22d95">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d9e">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22d9f">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c42">Climate change impacts on NEFSC surveys - change in survey catchability</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4a">2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c4b">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c54">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c55">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c5e">Varies by research track</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c2e">Sturgeon Bycatch </td><td class="cl-2fd22c2f">2021</td><td class="cl-2fd22c36">Lowest</td><td class="cl-2fd22c37">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c40">Not started</td><td class="cl-2fd22c41">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-2fd22e17">SOE admin</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22c04">SOE usage tracking</td><td class="cl-2fd22c05">2022-2023</td><td class="cl-2fd22c06">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22c0e">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22c0f">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22c10">Draft manuscript in progress</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-2fd22d50">Include estimates of inclusion years in request memo</td><td class="cl-2fd22d51">2022</td><td class="cl-2fd22d58">Unranked</td><td class="cl-2fd22d59">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-2fd22d62">In progress</td><td class="cl-2fd22d63">Reorganized memo to clarify project timing</td></tr></tbody></table></div>

]

---
## Priority categories in the Request Memo

.pull-left-40[
The memo is organized into categories by topic, and categories are listed in descending order of overall (2022) priority based on approximate weighting within the category.

Therefore, a range of priority may be applied to individual requests within a category even though the entire category has an overall priority.

*The subgroup agreed to keep this group priority ranking*

SSC: [Link to current memo](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1woOaPCelKgPEcLpqMOBq23dmrMDKKH7q/view?usp=drive_link)  
SSC: [Link to overview](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Q06XL6Gaz8i3Hr9sggGjJTE-NII3-HBW/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=104644076769486561215&rtpof=true&sd=true)

]

.pull-right-60[
*  System level thresholds/reference points: highest, much methods work in progress

*  Management: high, resource limited  
*  Short term forecasts: high, CEFI should help  
*  Regime shifts: high, need system level framework

*  Multiple system drivers: moderate-high, many unranked requests

*  Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points: moderate, many in progress
*  Stock level indicators: moderate, ESPs better venue

*  SOE administration: unranked

]

???
*System level thresholds/reference points*
Includes requests to develop analytical methods that can be applied across all indicator types and operationalized for management advice. Much of this high priority methodological work is in progress.
*Management*
Includes analyses related to management performance. Work on this category is resource limited.
*Short term forecasts*
Includes requests for biological and environmental forecasts. These forecasts may be forthcoming from CEFI products once they are tested. 
*Regime shifts*
Many analyses have been conducted and are in progress for individual ecosystem components, but a unifying framework with consistent methods is needed for the SOE.
*Multiple system drivers*
This category has the most requests. Most unranked requests from 2023 are in this category. Prioritization within this category is sorely needed.
*Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points*
Most of these requests are in progress. 
*Stock level indicators*
Requests for this information may be more appropriately directed to stock specific ecosystem products such as Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs).

---
## Discussion of 2023 and 2024 requests (1 of 2)

These newer requests were ranked highest within each category

*  System level thresholds/reference points: highest
    + maintain high priority on trend/threshold evaluation
    + express indicators relative to biological thresholds
    + standardize uncertainty language (IPCC)
    + longer term: simulation analysis of thresholds

*  Management: high  
    + include indicators for risk policy/risk assessment processes
    
*  Short term forecasts: high 
    + include CEFI projections
    
*  Regime shifts: high 
    + instead characterize current conditions in context of expected short term change

SSC: link to [full list](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sULWI4xkeCMToktNOc69CQAjk50Mv7ZfZAOaL9C9PI8/edit?usp=drive_link), comments welcome!

---
## Discussion of 2023 and 2024 requests (2 of 2)

These newer requests were ranked highest within each category

*  Multiple system drivers: moderate-high
    + profits vs revenue: provide incomplete net revenue and index of costs
    + clarify objectives and terminology for fishing community engagement/reliance/EEJ
        + time series of community indicators
        + social and economic linkages to climate
        + consider appropriate scale for indicators

*  Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points: moderate
    + not specifically prioritized
    + include more aggregations for biomass and landings (Council-managed, status)

*  Stock level indicators: moderate, ESPs
    + not specifically prioritized 
    + cross reference ESP products where appropriate

SSC: link to [full list](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sULWI4xkeCMToktNOc69CQAjk50Mv7ZfZAOaL9C9PI8/edit?usp=drive_link), comments welcome!