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State of the Ecosystem Structure
Proposed 2025

SOE January Synthesis Meeting
21 January 2025

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley et al., 2020)

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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Ecosystem reporting at different levels of organization

Ecosystem Level → SOE

NE shelf map

Stock Level → ESP

herring cons mod

Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

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Using ecosystem information at the stock level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model

Bluefish ESP conceptual model

Images courtesy ASFC, and Abigail Tyrell and Emily Liljestrand, NEFSC

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Using ecosystem information at the stock level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model

Bluefish ESP conceptual model

Images courtesy ASFC, and Abigail Tyrell and Emily Liljestrand, NEFSC

bottom temp in BSB assessmentGOA cod risk assessment

ESP decisions

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State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2024 structure for 2025

2025 Report Structure

  1. Graphical summary
    • Page 1 report card re: objectives →
    • Page 2 risk summary bullets
    • Page 3 2024 snapshot
  2. Performance relative to management objectives
  3. Risks to meeting management objectives
    • Climate and Ecosystem risks
    • Offshore wind development

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary tableState of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets

Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives
Objective Categories Indicators reported
Provisioning and Cultural Services
Seafood Production Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem)
Social & Cultural Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status
Protected Species Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities
Supporting and Regulating Services
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
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Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

  • Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways.
  • Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to regime shifts — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.
  • Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

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Report structure 2021-2024, maintain in 2025: towards improved synthesis

  • Performance relative to management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Objectives
    • Seafood production
    • Profits
    • Recreational opportunities
    • Stability
    • Social and cultural
    • Protected species
  • Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    • Same What and Why as Performance Section
    • New structure for Climate section
      • Fishery risk indicator
      • Climate and ecosystem drivers of fishery risk
      • Future considerations
  • Risk categories
    • Climate and Ecosystem Change
      • Risk to spatial management
      • Risk to seasonal management
      • Risk to quota setting/rebuilding
    • Other ocean uses
      • Offshore wind development
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State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

A glossary of terms (2021 Memo 5), detailed technical methods documentation and indicator data are available online.

Key to figures

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or < 30 years

Grey background = last 10 years

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2025 Changes: Trend assessment

Andy's arfit R package integrated into ecodata

Tests for significant trend, null hypothesis is mean with autocorrelation (no trend)

Apply to most recent 10 years of each dataset



Decision based on how strange some of them looked

Has implications for risk assessment scoring

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2025 Report Timeline

All participants:

This meeting, Jan 21-23

Group edit, Jan 27-Feb 7

Lead editors:

Internal review, Feb 14-28

Document public: Mar 7

SSC presentations: March

Council presentations: April

NOAA IR: May

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Review of 2024 Summary results

These are the basis of 2025--discuss what to change

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Mid Atlantic State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024:

Performance relative to management objectives

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort increasing arrow icon above average icon icon; Effort diversity decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Stability: Fishery no trend icon near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations (NARW) decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon
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New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024:

Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank

Seafood production Total no trend icon, Managed decreasing arrow icon, Both below average icon icon

Profits no trend icon, above average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort no trend icon, near average icon icon; Effort diversity no trend icon, near average icon icon

Stability: Fishery mixed trend icon, Commercial below average icon icon Rec near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations mixed trend icon, NARW below average icon icon Gray seal above average icon icon

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New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024:

Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits Total no trend icon, above average icon icon; NEFMC Managed decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort no trend icon, near average icon icon; Effort diversity no trend icon, near average icon icon

Stability: Fishery mixed trend icon, Commercial below average icon icon Rec near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations mixed trend icon, NARW below average icon icon Gray seal above average icon icon
Salmon below average icon icon
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate: risks to spatial and seasonal management, quota setting and rebuilding

  • Fish and protected species distribution shifts
  • Changing spawning and migration timing
  • Multiple stocks with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development

  • Current revenue in proposed areas
    • 1-23% by Mid-Atlantic port (some with EJ concerns)
    • 1–34% by New England port (some with EJ concerns)
    • 1-20% by MAFMC managed species
    • 3-54% by NEFMC managed species
  • Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
  • Gulf of Maine fisheries/offshore wind IEA in progress
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024:

New section in 2024: 2023 Highlights

Notable 2023 events and conditions

  • South Fork Wind and Vineyard Wind 1 construction started
  • Scallop die-off elephant trunk 2022-2023
  • Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer
  • Record low hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay
  • GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale
  • 2nd ranked GOM bottom heatwave
  • Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf
  • Gulf Stream changes altering shelf break habitats
  • El Nino. Warmest year on record globally. Again.
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Council Requests from 2024 and Prioritization

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2025 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo in progress

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Priority categories in the Request Memo

The memo is organized into categories by topic, and categories are listed in descending order of overall (2022) priority based on approximate weighting within the category.

Therefore, a range of priority may be applied to individual requests within a category even though the entire category has an overall priority.

The subgroup agreed to keep this group priority ranking

SSC: Link to current memo
SSC: Link to overview

  • System level thresholds/reference points: highest, much methods work in progress

  • Management: high, resource limited

  • Short term forecasts: high, CEFI should help

  • Regime shifts: high, need system level framework

  • Multiple system drivers: moderate-high, many unranked requests

  • Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points: moderate, many in progress

  • Stock level indicators: moderate, ESPs better venue

  • SOE administration: unranked

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System level thresholds/reference points Includes requests to develop analytical methods that can be applied across all indicator types and operationalized for management advice. Much of this high priority methodological work is in progress. Management Includes analyses related to management performance. Work on this category is resource limited. Short term forecasts Includes requests for biological and environmental forecasts. These forecasts may be forthcoming from CEFI products once they are tested. Regime shifts Many analyses have been conducted and are in progress for individual ecosystem components, but a unifying framework with consistent methods is needed for the SOE. Multiple system drivers This category has the most requests. Most unranked requests from 2023 are in this category. Prioritization within this category is sorely needed. Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points Most of these requests are in progress. Stock level indicators Requests for this information may be more appropriately directed to stock specific ecosystem products such as Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs).

Discussion of 2023 and 2024 requests (1 of 2)

These newer requests were ranked highest within each category

  • System level thresholds/reference points: highest

    • maintain high priority on trend/threshold evaluation
    • express indicators relative to biological thresholds
    • standardize uncertainty language (IPCC)
    • longer term: simulation analysis of thresholds

  • Management: high

    • include indicators for risk policy/risk assessment processes

  • Short term forecasts: high

    • include CEFI projections

  • Regime shifts: high

    • instead characterize current conditions in context of expected short term change

SSC: link to full list, comments welcome!

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Discussion of 2023 and 2024 requests (2 of 2)

These newer requests were ranked highest within each category

  • Multiple system drivers: moderate-high

    • profits vs revenue: provide incomplete net revenue and index of costs
    • clarify objectives and terminology for fishing community engagement/reliance/EEJ
      • time series of community indicators
      • social and economic linkages to climate
      • consider appropriate scale for indicators

  • Functional group level status/thresholds/reference points: moderate

    • not specifically prioritized
    • include more aggregations for biomass and landings (Council-managed, status)

  • Stock level indicators: moderate, ESPs

    • not specifically prioritized
    • cross reference ESP products where appropriate

SSC: link to full list, comments welcome!

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley et al., 2020)

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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