State of the Ecosystem New England 2024

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# State of the Ecosystem New England 2024
]
.subtitle[
## NEFMC Update 25 June 2024
]
.author[
### Joseph Caracappa, (editor), Andy Beet, Brandon Beltz, Geret DePiper, Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith (data and section leads), and all SOE contributors
]

---

class: top, left

# State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

.pull-left-60[

- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
 + Contextual information
 + Report evolving since 2016
 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2021></a>([Bastille et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

- Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2021></a>([Muffley et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
 + Risk assessment <a name=cite-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>([Gaichas et al., 2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract))
 + Conceptual modeling <a name=cite-depiper_learning_2021></a>([DePiper et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054))
 + Management strategy evaluation ([MSE](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse))

]

.pull-right-40[
*The IEA Loop1*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//iea-loop.png)

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]
???
* The SOE aims to improve the consideration of ecosystem information into the fishery management process
* The SOE falls under ESRs and is an intergral part to the IEA loop. 
* The SOE is specifically written with fishery managerers as the audience
* It's current uses include direct links to mgmt objectives, uses an open science emphasis, and is used by the MAFMC for risk assessment, conceptual modeling, and MSE

---
## State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2023 structure for 2024*
.pull-left[

## 2024 Report Structure
1. Graphical summary
    + Page 1 report card re: objectives &rarr;
    + Page 2&3 risk summary bullets
    + Page 4 **2023 highlights*
1. Performance relative to management objectives
1. Risks to meeting management objectives
    + **Climate and Ecosystem risks*
    + Offshore wind development
    
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 45%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_2.png)![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets, 45%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_3.png)

]

.pull-right[

<table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Provisioning and Cultural Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Supporting and Regulating Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

???
* The SOE has retained the same structure from 20221 - 2023 with some execptions in 2024
* Section 1: graphical summaries including a report card, risk summary bullets, and a 2023 highlights (new)
  + Report cards and most indicators are separated between GOM and GB
* Section 2: Performance relative to mgmt objectives inddicated on right table
* Section 3: Risk to meeting mgmt objectives
  + Climate and ecosystem risks has been restructured to better describe the direct mgmt implications
  + Offshore wind development4\
---
## Ecosystem synthesis themes: still framing! but replace p.4 with 2023 Highlights

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

* Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. 
* Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.  
* Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

.pull-left[

![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SystemDrivers_v5.jpg)
]

.pull-right[
![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg)
]

???
* Ecosystem synthesis themes were previously located on p4 which was replaced with 2023 hightlights
* These themes are still important and most indicators link back to one or more theme

---
## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc), and indicator [data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) and [catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/) are available online.  
]

.pull-right[
Key to figures
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="396" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

???
* Provide an orientation for reading and interpreting the report
* The northeast is split up into 3 EPUs. The New England report covers GB and GOM
* Report is structured like an information funnel: high level = report, detailed interpretation or context = catalog, detailed methods = technical documentation
 + The data catalog has been reworked to now be like an encyclopedia entry for each indicator and should be first stop if you want to learn more. 
 + Living document that will be updated with each annual report
* Indicator time series are presented in standard format
 + shaded region = last 10 years
 + colored line shows trend (if present)
 + Trends not evaluated if < 30 data, but working on new methods for shorter time series

---
## Report structure 2024: same as 2021-2023 with more management risk emphasis

.pull-left[
* Performance relative to management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Objectives
    - Seafood production
    - Profits
    - Recreational opportunities
    - Stability
    - Social and cultural
    - Protected species
]

.pull-right[
* Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    - Same *What* and *Why* as Performance Section
    - New structure for Climate section
        - Fishery risk indicator
        - Climate and ecosystem drivers of fishery risk
        - Future considerations
* Risk categories
    + *Climate and Ecosystem Change*
        + *Risk to spatial management*
        + *Risk to seasonal management*
        + *Risk to quota setting/rebuilding*
    + Other ocean uses
        + Offshore wind development
]

???
* These two sections performance and risks to mgmt objectives have similar components to last year but have been restructured
* For performance we focus on *what* indicators say and *why* we think it's changing
* For risks we focus start with the indicator of risk, explain its drivers, and discuss future considerations
  + These are split into risks for spatial, seasonal, and quota setting/rebuilding
  + Conclude with offshore wind development

---
## 2024 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo

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1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-02c5ee10{width:2.832in;background-color:rgba(239, 239, 239, 1.00);vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-top: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-02c5ee16{width:4.438in;background-color:rgba(239, 239, 239, 1.00);vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-top: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}</style><table data-quarto-disable-processing='true' class='cl-02cad8ae'><thead><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><th class="cl-02c5ed58">Request</th><th class="cl-02c5ed62">Year</th><th class="cl-02c5ed63">Rank</th><th class="cl-02c5ed64">Source</th><th class="cl-02c5ed65">Status</th><th class="cl-02c5ed6c">Progress</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5ed6d">System level thresholds/ref pts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed7a">Compare EOF (Link) thresholds to empirical thresholds (Large, Tam) </td><td class="cl-02c5ed80">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5ed81">Highest</td><td class="cl-02c5ed82">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed83">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed84">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Trend Analysis / Inflection / Break points</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2019 - 2023</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Highest</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">Both Councils and SSCs</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Prototype analysis 2022-2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed95">Optimum yield for ecosystem</td><td class="cl-02c5ed96">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5ed97">Highest</td><td class="cl-02c5ed98">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9f">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5eda0">How does phyto size comp affect EOF indicator, if at all?</td><td class="cl-02c5eda1">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5eda2">High</td><td class="cl-02c5eda8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5eda9">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edaa">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed95">Sum of TAC/ Landings relative to TAC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed96">2021, 2023</td><td class="cl-02c5ed97">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5ed98">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9e">In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9f">Seafood Production section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5eda0">Nutrient input, Benthic Flux and POC (particulate organic carbon) to inform benthic productivity by something other than surface indicators</td><td class="cl-02c5eda1">2021, 2023</td><td class="cl-02c5eda2">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5eda8">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5eda9">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edaa">Stomach-based benthos indices in development</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Lowest</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5edb5">Management</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edbf">Incorporate social sciences survey from council</td><td class="cl-02c5edc6">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5edc7">High</td><td class="cl-02c5edc8">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edd0">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edd1">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Management complexity</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2019</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">High</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Student work needs further analysis, no further work this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Recreational bycatch mortality as an indicator of regulatory waste</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">High</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5eda0">Include New England ports with significant reliance on mid species be included in the Mid SOE</td><td class="cl-02c5eda1">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5eda2">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5eda8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5eda9">In SOE</td><td class="cl-02c5edaa">Other Ocean Uses: Offshore Wind section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edd2">Re-evaluate EPUs</td><td class="cl-02c5edd3">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5edd4">Lowest</td><td class="cl-02c5edd5">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edda">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5eddb">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5eddc">Short term forecasts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edbf">Using phytoplankton trends to forecast fish stocks</td><td class="cl-02c5edc6">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5edc7">High</td><td class="cl-02c5edc8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edd0">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edd1">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Short term forecasting (water temp, productivity)</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">High</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5ed6d">Regime shifts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ede8">Time series analysis (Zooplankton/Forage fish) to tie into regime shifts</td><td class="cl-02c5edee">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edef">High</td><td class="cl-02c5edf0">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5edf1">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edf2">Individual projects started</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Regime shifts in Social-Economic indicators</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">High</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5edb5">Multiple system drivers</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edbf">Linking Condition </td><td class="cl-02c5edc6">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5edc7">High</td><td class="cl-02c5edc8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edd0">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edd1">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Avg weight of diet components by feeding group</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2019</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">High</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">Internal</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Part of fish condition project</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Cumulative weather index</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Data gathered for prototype</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Fall turnover date index</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In SOE</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Climate and Ecosystem Productivity section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Modeling cold pool/warm core ring and wind development interactions</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Impact of climate on data streams (changes in catchability of survey)</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Young of Year index from multiple surveys</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2019</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Links between species availability inshore/offshore (estuarine conditions) and trends in recreational fishing effort?</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Bluefish prey index inshore/offshore partially addresses</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Tell Social stories like we try to tell biological stories</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">GARFO</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">What determines a "risk"? Include aquaculture as a risk?</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Climate and Ecosystem Risks revision</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edd2">Profits vs Revenue</td><td class="cl-02c5edd3">2023</td><td class="cl-02c5edd4">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5edd5">Both Councils</td><td class="cl-02c5edda">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5eddb">Profit calculation for subset of fleet</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5eda0">OA linked to scallop harvest in areas where aragonite saturation is highlighted. </td><td class="cl-02c5eda1">2023</td><td class="cl-02c5eda2">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5eda8">Both Councils</td><td class="cl-02c5eda9">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edaa">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed95">Time series of social indicators</td><td class="cl-02c5ed96">2023</td><td class="cl-02c5ed97">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed98">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9f">SOE evaluates changes from last year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Stability indicator - yield over time in NE</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2023</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Vessel-level diversity vs fleet level diversity</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2023</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Inclusion of upcoming HMS climate vulnerability assessment</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2023</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Assessment not yet published</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2019</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Intern evaluated trends in guild diets</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Environmental Justice - Further Explanation and maybe have Soc Sci folks on call to explain</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In SOE</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Social and cultural section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Changing per capita seafood consumption as driver of revenue?</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5eda0">Relate OA to nutrient input; are there "dead zones" (hypoxia)?</td><td class="cl-02c5eda1">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5eda2">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5eda8">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5eda9">In SOE</td><td class="cl-02c5edaa">In new 2023 Highlights section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed95">Estuarine Water Quality</td><td class="cl-02c5ed96">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5ed97">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5ed98">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9e">In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed9f">Intern project 2021 needs expansion</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Decomposition of diversity drivers highlighting social components</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Lowest</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edf3">Indicators of chemical pollution in offshore waters</td><td class="cl-02c5edf8">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edf9">Lowest</td><td class="cl-02c5edfa">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edfb">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edfc">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edfd">Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp</td><td class="cl-02c5ee02">2019</td><td class="cl-02c5ee03">Lowest</td><td class="cl-02c5ee04">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ee05">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5ee06">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5ed6d">Functional group level status/thresholds/ref pts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ede8">Forage availability index (Herring/Sandlance)</td><td class="cl-02c5edee">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edef">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5edf0">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edf1">In SOE</td><td class="cl-02c5edf2">Climate and Ecosystem Productivity section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">VAST and uncertainty </td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">Both Councils</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Seal index</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Apex predator index (pinnipeds)</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Low</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Protected species branch developing time series</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ee0c">Biomass of spp not included in BTS</td><td class="cl-02c5ee0d">2020</td><td class="cl-02c5ee0e">Lowest</td><td class="cl-02c5ee0f">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ee10">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5ee16">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5eddc">Stock level indicators</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ede8">Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity)</td><td class="cl-02c5edee">2019</td><td class="cl-02c5edef">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5edf0">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edf1">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5edf2">Project with A. Hollander</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Indicator of scallop pred pops poorly sampled by bottom trawls</td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Moderate</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Climate change impacts on NEFSC surveys - change in survey catchability</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2023</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Varies by research track</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5edab">Sturgeon Bycatch </td><td class="cl-02c5edac">2021</td><td class="cl-02c5edad">Lowest</td><td class="cl-02c5edb2">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5edb3">Not started</td><td class="cl-02c5edb4">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-02c5eddc">SOE admin</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed7a">SOE usage tracking</td><td class="cl-02c5ed80">2022-2023</td><td class="cl-02c5ed81">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed82">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed83">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed84">Draft manuscript in progress</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-02c5ed8a">Include estimates of inclusion years in request memo</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8b">2022</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8c">Unranked</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8d">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-02c5ed8e">In progress</td><td class="cl-02c5ed94">Reorganized memo to clarify project timing</td></tr></tbody></table></div>

]

???
* Tracking memo describes the requests we've received from both councils, it's current status, and a ranking done by the MAFMC
* Many high priority tasks were delayed due to staff turnover with the major changes relating to the report organization and the online catalog
* Currently in progress includes: developing EOF indicators, development of short term ecosystem forecasts with CEFI, methodology for assessing regime shifts,and stock-level indicators through ESPs and thresholds analyses.

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## New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: 
**Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank**

.pull-left-60[
Seafood production Total ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), Managed ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), Both ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png)

Recreational opportunities:  Effort ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Stability: Fishery ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), Commercial ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species: 
*  Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)  
*  Recover endangered populations ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), NARW ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Gray seal ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png)  
]
.pull-right-40[]

???
* The summary report cards show the objectives (with associated indicator), whether the 30 year trend is +/-, whether the current statis is above or below a long-term mean, and a brief description of potential implications
*There is a separate card for GB and GOM but some of the indicators are identical
*Some indicators are a current-year snapshot and we don't indentify trend, only status

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-NE-030424_Page_3.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: 
**Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine**

.pull-left-60[
Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits Total ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); NEFMC Managed ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

???
* Note: We also include Atlantic Salmon indicators under protected species for the GOM

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_3.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: 
**Risks to meeting fishery management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Climate: risks to spatial and seasonal management, quota setting and rebuilding
*  Fish and protected species distribution shifts
*  Changing spawning and migration timing
*  Multiple stocks with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development
*  Current revenue in proposed areas
    - 1-23% by Mid-Atlantic port (some with EJ concerns)
    - 1–34% by New England port (some with EJ concerns)
    - 1-20% by MAFMC managed species
    - 3-54% by NEFMC managed species
*  Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
*  Gulf of Maine fisheries/offshore wind IEA in progress
]
.pull-right-40[]

???
* We provide a summary to the risks to meeting mgmt objectives that mirror the structure of section 2. This summary discusses general risks and is nearly identical between the two regional reports

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_4.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024:
**New section this year: 2023 Highlights**

.pull-left-60[
Notable 2023 events and conditions

*  South Fork Wind and Vineyard Wind 1 construction started
*  Scallop die-off elephant trunk 2022-2023
*  Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer
*  Record *low* hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay
*  GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale
*  2nd ranked GOM bottom heatwave
*  Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf
*  Gulf Stream changes altering shelf break habitats
*  El Nino. Warmest year on record globally. Again.
]

.pull-right-40[
]

???
* The new pg4 is what we're calling a yearly highlights page.
* This summarizes events in the past year that are novel, record-breaking, link multiple indicators, or are causes for increased caution. These can also be positive or have unknown impact on the system.
* The summary icons relate to the typ eof effect we're seeing and generally correspond to the location of that event

---
# 2024 Performance relative to management objectives

.center[
![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//5_FISHING.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//6_INDUSTRY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//18.MULTIPLE_SYSTEM_DRIVERS.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//22.SPIRITUAL_CULTURAL.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Protected species icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//16.PROTECTEDSPECIES.png)
]

???
* In this section I'm going to walk through section 1: performance relative to mtgmt objectives
* For each objective, I'm going to discuss the relavent indicators, status, and trends
* Then I will discuss possible drivers for these indicators & possible things to monitor in the future

---

## Objective: New England Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Commercial landings

]

.pull-right[
Indicators: Recreational harvest

]

Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change

???
* Overall NE seafood production is declining with the most recent year below the long-term mean 
* Commercial landings declining for US Seafood and Council Seafood in both regions, but council seafood in the GOM has stabilized in the last 10 years
* For Rec harvest, we've seen a continued downward trend in recreational landings and no long-term trend in shark landings
* Trends in seafood production represent the combined effects of multiple drivers including biological production, management, market conditions, and enviornmental change

---
## New England Landings drivers: Stock status? Survey biomass?

.pull-left[
Indicator: Stock status

<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="648" />
.contrib[
Stocks below BMSY increased from 2023, stocks below ½ BMSY stayed the same. Management still likely playing large role in seafood declines
]

]

.pull-right[
Indicator: Survey biomass
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="576" />
.contrib[
Biomass availability still seems unlikely driver
]

]

???
* Stock status can be a driver of seafood production since it relates to both stock production and management actions
  + 9 stocks below Bmsy and 13 don't have Bmsy assessed
  + Looking to compare TAC and % of TAC taken in future reports
* Declines in seafood production could be explained by declining resources, but survey biomass for most guilds has shown long-term increases
  + Trends in landings are not mirroring the trophic structure of surveyed species, so shifting ecosystem structure is an unlikely driver for production declines
  
---
## Implications: New England Seafood Production
.pull-left[
Drivers:
* decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by the requirement to rebuild individual stocks as well as market dynamics
* other drivers affecting recreational landings: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor: 
* climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions  
* ecosystem composition and production changes  
* fishing engagement

]

.pull-right[

]

???
* We conclude that declines in commercial seafood production is likely driven by the requirement to rebuild individual stocks combined with market dynamics
* Declines in recreational landings likely relate to shark fishery mgmt and possibly survey mehtodology
* We should continue to monitor ecosystem shifts including climate risks, shifting distributions, and ecosystem composition
  + These can compound mgmt challenges 
  +We should also monitor fishing community engagement, especially those affected by environmental justice vulnerabilities
---

## Objective: New England Commercial Profits ![:img mixed trends arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png)

.pull-left[
Indicator: Commercial Revenue
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" width="540" />

Both regions driven by single species
* GOM high revenue despite low volume
* Fluctuations in GB due to rotational management

Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:
* Sea scallops and lobsters are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification

]

.pull-right[
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="504" />
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="504" />
]

???
* We don't report commercial profits directly due to incomplete cost data but we report on revenues as an indicator of profits
* Commercial revenue is dominated by a single species in both regions. GB - scallop, and GOM - lobster
  + Revenue fluctuates in GB due to rotational management
  + Most of GOM revenue in non-council-managed species
* The Bennet Indicator is a tool we use to deconstruct revenue into prices or volume driven effects
  + This indicator is relative to a 1982 baseline, whcih is the current era of fisheries mgmt
  + The solid line shows the revenue change relative to 1982 and the color bars show the price and volume components of that revenue broken out by feeding guild
  + In GB we're below 1982 revenue baseline driven by a volumes prior to 2010, but is now caused by declining prices, specifically for bethos (quahogs and surfclams)
  + In the GOM, profits are above 1982 baseline and driven mostly by benthivore prices (lobster)
* We should continue monitoring changes in scallop and lobster, due to their dominance in commercial revenues and increased climate vulnerability
---

## Objective: New England Recreational opportunities ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 1%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/near long term average.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="504" />

<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="504" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications

* Absence of a long-term trend in recreational effort suggests relative stability in the overall number of recreational opportunities in New England

]

???
* Rec opportunities show no long-term trend with the current year near the long-term mean
* After declines in 2010, recent years rec effort has leveled off
* Though rec fleet diversity declined in the 1980's , it has stabilized over the last 30 years
* The lack of trend in either indicators suggest that rec opportunities in NE are somewhat stable

---

## Objective: New England Fishery Stability ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/decrease.png) Com ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png); Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/near long term average.png)

.pull-left[
*Fishery*  Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="504" />
.contrib[
Most recent around lowest points in series
]
]

.pull-right[
*Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="504" />
.contrib[
Most recent lowest point in series. Covid role?
]

]

???
* We divide indicators of system stability into fisheries and ecosystem stability
* For the commercial fishing, the fleet count is below the longterm mean, and caught species diversity is near the lowest point in time series
  + trends not evaluated due to time series length
  + We consider this a decrease in commercial fishing stability due to more consolidated fishing centered around fewer species
* Recreational catch diversity is increasing but given the lack of trend in effort or fleet diversity, we are not claiming a change in stability

---
## Objective: New England Ecological Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/above long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
*Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (*not updated*)

]

.pull-right[
*Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="504" />

Implications:  
* Commercial fishery diversity driven by small number of species
* Diminished capacity to respond to future fishing opportunities
* Recreational diversity due to species distributions and regulations
* Adult diversity in GOM suggests increase in warm-water species
]

???
* We look at zooplankton and larval fish diversity as indices of ecological stability 
  + These were not updated this year, but show long-term trends in zooplankton diversity in GB and no trends in GOM
* We also look at the expected number of species form the NEFSC bottom trawl survey as a measure of overall species diversity
  + This data is broken by a change in survey vessel, but shows an increase in the GOM, with relatively high values in recent years for both regions
  + The increase in GOM adult species indicates an influx of warm water species suggesting lack of stability

---

## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance

.pull-left[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="468" />

]

.pull-right[

]

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

???
* These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in New England.
  + Engagement is a measure of fishing activity where Reliance is fishing activity relative to population size
  + For example, New Bedford has the highest engagement due to the volume of fishing activity in the community, but since activity is relatively small given the population of the community, it has a low reliance score
  + Communities are color-coded based on their Environmental Justice Vulnerability index
  + Communities that are high in both engagement and reliance are vulnerabile to changes in fishing patterns. These include Stonington and Beals, ME
*Communities EJ vulnerability is scores as a composite of several census indices relating to personal disruption, population composition, and poverty
  + New Bedford and Boston had previously been identified as having higher EJ vulnerability, with the inclusion of Swans Island, ME this year. Swans Island has a high unemployment concerns but without the demographic concerns seen in the other two larger cities.
  + Communities that experience EJ issues might have a lower capacity to respond to changing environments or regulations

---
## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance

.pull-left[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="468" />

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="100%" />

]

???
* This slide only shows the top 10 engaged and reliant communities based on recreational fishing
* Only Dennis and Bourne have high engagement and reliance, where none did last year
  + Gronton, MA and Clinton, CT are no longer listed in the top ten
* Falmouth and Dennis now show a medium degree of EJ vulnerability but are generally near national averages
  + Most rec communities have below national average levels of vulnerability

---
## Objectives: Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch

]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Currently meeting objectives for harbor porpoise and gray seals

* Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 7 low-mod, 2 mod-high risk, 1 improved

* The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

* The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).
]
???
* We are currently meeting bycatch objectives for gray seals and bycatch
  + Shaded region is data and limit (PBR) is the red line
  + The decline in harbor porpoise bycatch is likely due to a general decline in US waters, reduced fishery overlap, and declining gillnet efforts
  + The increase in grey seal bycatch is likley due to an increase in the actual population based on pup counts but it still is below the PBR

---
## Objectives: Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Signs the adult population stabilized 2020-2022

* Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

* Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

* Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species. 1 UME is pending closure for pinnipeds.

]

???
* NARW abundance appears to be stabilizing from 2020-2022 after nearly a decade of decline
  + Multiple drivers and stressors
* Pup counts have risen over the past 4 years
* Unusual mortality events continue for 3 other large whale species and one for pinnipeds is pending closure

---
# 2024 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

.center[
![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//3_CLIMATE.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Wind icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//24.WIND.png)
]

.center[
![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//13_FORAGEFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Apex predators icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//17.APEXPREDATORS.png)  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png) 
]

---
## *REVISED* Risks: Climate and Ecosystem Change

.pull-left[

### Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation
*  Indicators of Distribution Shifts
*  Drivers
*  Implications

### Risks to Seasonal Management/Timed Closures
*  Indicators of Changing Timing (Phenology)
*  Drivers
*  Implications
]

.pull-right[

### Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding
*  Indicators of Changing Productivity
*  Drivers 
*  Implications
]

???
* In the risks to management objectives section we've revised how we organize the section on climate and ecosystem change
  + We've divided the section into 3 types risk: spatial, seasonal, quota/rebuilding
  + Within each type of risk we discuss indicators that can impact that type of managment action, the drivers for those indicators, and future considerations/implications
---
## Risks to Spatial Management: Indicators

.pull-left[
Fish distribution shifts

]

.pull-right[
Cetacean distribution shifts

]

???
* The distribution of stocks influences spatial allocations, bycatch measures, and survey interpretation
* Species' distributions can change along with a changing climate and these shifts need to be considered for spatial mgmt actions
* Shelf-wide we've seen a shift in species' center of gravity towards the northeast and into deeper water
* We also see long-term shifts in cetacean distributions

---
## Risks to Spatial Management: Drivers

.pull-left[
Forage shifts, temperature increase
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/forageshifts-1.png" alt="Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for 20 forage fish species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, with increasing trend (orange) for fall eastward and northward center of gravity." width="576" />

<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/long-term-sst-1.png" alt="Northeast US annual sea surface temperature (SST, black), with increasing trend (orange)." width="504" />
]

.pull-right[
Changing ocean habitat 
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/GSI-1.png" alt="Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall (black). Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position, with increasing trend (orange)." width="504" />

.contrib[
Cold pool temperature and spatial extent
]
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/cold-pool-size-1.png" alt="Seasonal cold pool mean temperature (left) and spatial extent index (right), based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles), with declining trends (purple)." width="540" />

]

???
* These range shifts are thoguht to be caused by a combination of changing habitats and food availability
  + We see long term trends in spring and fall forage populations towards the northeast
  + We also have long-term warming trends in the region
* There have also been long-term trends in important oceanographic features
  + The N. wall of the Gulf stream has been moving more north over time which can impact the flow of water into the GOM and MAB
  + The mid-atlantic cold pool (which is a seasonal refuge for several species), has been getting warming and smaller over time

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/EastCoastClimateScenarios.png")
background-size: 400px
background-position: right bottom
## Risks to Spatial Management: Future Considerations

*   Distribution shifts caused by changes in thermal habitat are likely to continue as long as long-term temperature trends persist. 
*   Near-term oceanographic forecasts are currently in development and may inform how future warming impacts species distributions.
*   Increased oceanographic variability needs to be captured by regional ocean models and linked to species distribution processes to better understand potential future distributions. Species with high mobility or short lifespans react differently from immobile or long lived species.

Adapting management to changing stock distributions and dynamic ocean processes will require continued monitoring of populations in space and evaluating management measures against a range of possible future spatial distributions.

*   [East Coast Climate Scenario Planning](https://www.mafmc.org/climate-change-scenario-planning) can help coordinate management.
*   [Near term predictions of distribution shifts](https://www.lenfestocean.org/nb/news-and-publications/multimedia/crafting-models-to-predict-near-term-fisheries-shifts-under-climate-change) project in progress

???
* The distribution shifts that we've observed are caused by persistent global and regional effects of climate change 
  + We don't expect distributions to shift back as long as long-term warming trends persist
* As part of NOAA's CEFI, near-term oceanographic forecasts are in development that will help identify how warming may impact species distributions
  + There is a real need to understand how species distributions relate to oceanographic variability and how species' life history relates to range shifts
* Changing stocks will require managers to monitor and consider possible future distributions in mgmt actions
  + The East Coast Climate Change Scenario Planning group is looking to build pathways to better coordinate mgmt and research

https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/ScenPlanningOptions.png

---
## Risks to Seasonal Management: Indicators

Spawning timing, migration change

.pull-left[

]

.pull-right[
*  Recreational tuna fisheries 50 days earlier in the year in 2019 compared to 2002. 
*  In Cape Cod Bay, peak spring habitat use by right and humpback whales has shifted 18-19 days later over time.
]

???
* The effectiveness of seasonal mgmt actions like seasons and area opening/closures relies on a alignment with seasonal life cycle events or phenology
  + If the timing of these events were to change, there is a risk of less effective seasonal mgmt actions
* We see shifts in the spawning timing of yellowtail flounder and haddock with more resting (post-spawn) females over time indicating earlier spawning
* Recreational tuna has shifted 50 days earlier over the last 20 years
* We aslo see humpbacks use Cape Code Bay earlier then first recorded

---
## Risks to Seasonal Management: Drivers

.pull-left[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/transition-1.png" alt="Ocean summer length in GB and the GOM: the annual total number of days between the spring thermal transition date and the fall thermal transition date (black), with an increasing trend (orange)." width="504" />

.contrib[
Cold pool seasonal persistence
]
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/cold-pool-time-1.png" alt="Cold pool persistence index based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles)." width="504" />
]

.pull-right[

Future considerations

*  Management actions that rely on effective alignment of fisheries availability and biological processes should continue to evaluate whether prior assumptions on seasonal timings still hold.

*  New indicators should be developed to monitor timing shifts for stocks.

]
???
* Unlike the long-term trends driving distribution shits, shifts in phenology are driven by changes in the timing of seasonal environmental processes
  + There has been a long-term increase in the length of the summer, driven by a later fall turnover in both regions
  + We are also monitoring the persistence of the seasonal cold pool which has fluctuated between declining and no-change between years
* Mgmt that relies on assumptions of fisheries availabiltiy or the timing of biological processes needs to continue to evasluate their validity
* This category of indicators in relatively sparse. We should continue to develop timing shifts for individual stocks
---
## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Indicators

Fish productivity and condition

.pull-left[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/ne-productivity-anomaly-1.png" alt="Fish productivity measures. Left: Small fish per large fish survey biomass anomaly in the Gulf of Maine. Right: assessment recruitment per spawning stock biomass anomaly for stocks mainly in New England. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line, drawn across all years with the same number of stocks analyzed." width="576" />
]

.pull-right[

<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/ne-cf-1.png" alt="Condition factor for fish species in New England based on fall NEFSC bottom trawl survey data." width="864" />
]
???
* The efficacy of short-term stock projections and rebuilding plans rely on understanding processes that effect stock growht, reproduction, and natural mortality
 + With ecosystem change, there is a risk that biological reference points may no longer reflect the current population
* A small fish per large fish index was created based on survey data as a indicator of fish productivity
 + With the exception of 2006 and 2013, fish productivity has been below average over the last 20 years
* An analysis of stock assessment recruitment anomaly also shows low recruitment over the same period
* We also see oscillations in fish condition across both regions with large declines from 2001-2010. 
 + 2023 had the lowest condition in GOM since the rebound in 2010

<a name=cite-perretti_regime_2017></a>([Perretti et al., 2017](http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/))
---
## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Indicators

.pull-left[
Gulf of Maine Tern Productivity
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/seabird-ne-productivity-1.png" alt="Productivity of Common terns in the Gulf of Maine." width="540" />

]

.pull-right[
Gulf of Maine Salmon Returns
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/salmon-1.png" alt="Return rate proportions and abundance of Atlantic salmon." width="540" />
]

???
* We can also see productivity shifts in seabirds, with longterm declines in common tern productivity
* In Atlantic Salmon, we see declines in the return rate fish
---
## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Drivers

.pull-left[
Forage Quality and Abundance
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/zooplankton-season-1.png" alt="Dry mass of mesozooplankton captured with a 200µm ring net towed from the bottom to surface at a deep time series station in Wilkinson Basin between 2005-2022 (Runge et al. 2023)." width="50%" />

<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/ne-foragebio-1.png" alt="Forage fish index in New England for spring (blue) and fall (red) surveys, with an increase (orange) in spring GOM. Index values are relative to the maximum observation within a region across surveys." width="504" />
]

.pull-right[
Low tropic levels
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/ne-zoopanom-1.png" alt="Changes in zooplankton abundance in New England for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." width="360" />
]
???
* Fish productivity and condition are partically the result of food quality and abundance
 + We've observed declining seasonal abundance of copepods
 + In GB, there's been an increase of small-bodied copepods, potentially reducing food quality
* Forage fish indices show relative stability in NE. We also see forage fish energy content below 1990s reference points for several species
---
## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Drivers

.pull-left[
Environmental 
*2023 Thermal habitat area by depth*
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="504" />

]

.pull-right[ 
Predation 
*Seals increasing, sharks stable, 50% of HMS populations above target*
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-33-1.png" width="504" />

]
???
* Productivity can also be related to environmental conditions due to its effect on metabolism and reproductive proceeses
* In a new indicator, we looked at some thermal tolerance thresholds as a function of depth to try and estimate what proportion of habitat was in unfavorable conditions
  + We see that GB has areas exceeding the 15C threshold semi frequently, and the 24C threshold only in shallow water
  + The exceeds the 15C threshold in shallower water, but doesn't reach the upper threshold
  + We hope to continue to refine this indicator for individual species as part of ongoing work
* Trophic interactions can also alter stock productivity
  + Increases in HMS populations above targets suggest there might be an increase in predation pressure
  
---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right bottom

## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Future Considerations

*   There is a real risk that short-term predictions in assessments and rebuilding plans that assume unchanging underlying conditions will not be as effective, given the observed change documented in the prior sections in both ecological and environmental processes. 
*   Assumptions for species’ growth, reproduction, and natural mortality should continue to be evaluated for individual species. 
*   With observations of system-wide productivity shifts of multiple managed stocks, more research is needed to determine whether regime shifts or ecosystem reorganization are occurring, and how this should be incorporated into management.

???
* Given the long-term environmental change and species shifts described in the other sections, there's a real risk of ineffective rebuilding plans or short-term predictions if not accounted for
* We need to re-evaluate species assumptions and stock assessment parameters
* Ongoing efforts to assess whether regime shfits or reorganization is occuring.
  + Workshop this past May
  + Need to describe how this can be incorporated into mgmt.
---
## Risks: Offshore Wind Development: Indicators

.pull-left[
Fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: which Mid-Atlantic ports have significant reliance on New England managed species?
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/wind-rev-MAB-NEFMC-1.png" alt="Percent of Mid-Atlantic port revenue with majority NEFMC landings from Wind Energy Areas (WEA) in descending order from most to least port fisheries revenue from WEA. EJ = Environmental Justice." width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-35-1.png" width="504" />
]
???
* Offshore wind development has begun in NE and poses several risks to fishing and fisheries mgmt
* We estimate the historical fishery revenue that was harvested from wind lease areas from 2008 to 2022
 + Depending on the species this represents 3-54% of the maximum annual revenue (windowpane - redfish)
 + By raw revenue: scallop, monkfish, herring, skates, and silver hake make up the largest impacted revenue
 + Most the scallop overlap with wind lease areas occurs in the MAB
 + The overlap will likely decrease in the GOM when BOEM finalizes the lease areas
* We also calculate the port revenue obtained from wind lease areas
 + The dark blue is the min WEA revenue, and the med blue is the max
 + Some of the highest minimum impact ports include Boston, Little COmpton, and Westport
 + These are port-wide metrics, and the effects of individual operators can still be quite high despite a lower percent revenue
 + Ports are also marked if they have higher EJ or gentrification concerns
* We've also fulfilled a council request to see these statistics for the mid-Atlantic ports that rely on New England managed species

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/NARW_hotspots_final_2024.jpg")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development: Implications

.pull-left[

Implications:
*  Current plans for buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region 
*  Planned wind areas overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise.
]

.pull-right[]

???
* Despite some changes in the timeline, offshore wind developement is still ramping up and 2030 goals are expected to be met
  + Delays in some projects may mean that the development timeline is faster in coming years
* The staggered development in space and time means that impacts will affect regions differently and at different times
* Beyond fishery revenue some of the other major impacts include:
  + Protected species interactions, particularly NARW calf migration corridors as whale hotspots overlap with lease areas. This is particularly concerning for southern NE, especially during construction
  + The effects on federal surveys through operations, survey design, habitat modification, and navigation. There's an ongoing effort to better quantify and mitigate these impacts.

---
.pull-left[
## 2023 Highlights

* Hypoxia and OA off NJ

![:img NJ hypoxia](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/Figure2-GraceSaba_2024.png)

* Record *low* hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay since 1995, relatively cool summer with high salinity.

* Sea scallop recruitment detected Spring 2022, gone in Spring 2023

* Days in 2022 at or above scallop stress temperature 17-19 C &rarr;
]

.pull-right[
![:img scallop stress bottom temp, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/bottom_temp_threshold_17_19_Elephant_Trunk.png)
]

???
* The final section is a more detailed look at 2023 highlights. These can either have positive, negative, or unknown implications, but were deemed notable by SOE contributors. 
  + If events become frequent or are worth monitoring for in the future, they may become new indicators
* Overall 2023 was an extremely warm year globally. The added El Nino conditions changed preciptication patterns around the region as well
* There were observed hypoxia and low pH events off of NJ that may have contribed to recorded die offs.
  + We are working on better representing oxygen and OA conditions over time
* In contrast, The Chesapeake Bay saw record *low* hypoxia, inmproving finfish and benthic habitat.
* A sea scallop mortality event was observed in Elephan Trunk off of NJ, which was believed to be related to localized warming events on the bottom
  + The plot shows the number of days in 2022 that temperature was within a scallop-specific thermal stress window based on GLORYS reanalysis
  + Elephant Trunk is highlighted in bold, with an average of 30 days in those conditions
  + This and other species-specific thermal tolerance metrics are in development now

---
## 2023 Highlights

* Gulf Stream inshore, fewer rings

.pull-left[
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/MAP_SST_Gulf_Stream_2024.png)
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-37-1.png" width="504" />
Intermittent warm waters like this can be threats to temperature sensitive species, especially species at the southern end of their range or are not mobile (e.g. scallops), while also providing suitable habitat for more southern species.
]

???
* There were also large-scale changes in circulation
* The Gulf stream experienced large meanders coming up onto the shelf, bringing warm waters
  + Events like these can harm temperature sensitive species or provide new habitat for southern species
* There was also a decline in warm core rings, bucking a consistently  high level since 2000. 
---
## 2023 Highlights

* Gulf of Maine giant bloom and bottom heatwave

.pull-left[
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/2023-GOMbloom-internalreview.png)
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240625_NEFMC_Caracappa_files/figure-html/chl-current-year-1.png" alt="2023 median weekly chlorophyll concentrations (green line) with standard deviation 1998-2023 (gray shading)." width="504" />
]
???
* The GOM experiened the largest phytoplankton bloom on record with Chlorophyll levels nearly 10 times average.
 + The bloom was caused by a resident dinoflagellate Tripos muelleri
 + Though large, this extra production was not grazed nor was it found in sediments
 + Ongoing work is in progress to assess the impact of this bloom and its causes

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 80 contributors from 20+ institutions

.table[
![:col_row 
 Kimberly Bastille 
 Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
 Andy Beet 
 Brandon Beltz 
 Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
 Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Baoshan Chen (Stony Brook University) 
 Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut) 
 Joseph Caracappa 
 Doug Christel (GARFO) 
 Patricia Clay 
 Lisa Colburn 
 Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Art Degaetano (Cornell U) 
 Geret DePiper 
 Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
 Hubert du Pontavice 
 Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Michael Fogarty 
 Paula Fratantoni 
 Kevin Friedland 
 Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Sarah Gaichas 
 Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
 Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth) 
 James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Lori Garzio (Rutgers University),
 
 Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Sean Hardison 
 Dvora Hart 
 Kimberly Hyde 
 John Kocik 
 Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Scott Large 
 Gabe Larouche (Cornell U) 
 Daniel Linden 
 Andrew Lipsky 
 Sean Lucey 
 Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Chris Melrose 
 Shannon Meseck 
 Ryan Morse 
 Ray Mroch (SEFSC) 
 Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
 Kimberly Murray 
 David Moe Nelson (NCCOS) 
 Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) 
 Chris Orphanides 
 Richard Pace 
 Debi Palka 
 Tom Parham (Maryland DNR) 
 Charles Perretti 
 CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Kristin Precoda,
 
 Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Jeffrey Runge (U Maine) 
 Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
 Vincent Saba 
 Sarah Salois 
 Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
 Amy Schueller (SEFSC) 
 Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University) 
 Dave Secor (CBL) 
 Angela Silva 
 Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
 Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
 Laurel Smith 
 Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
 Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
 John Walden 
 Harvey Walsh 
 Changhua Weng 
 Dave Wilcox (VIMS) 
 Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM) 
 Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources) 
 Mark Wuenschel 
 Qian Zhang (U Maryland)]
]

???

---
## References

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2021></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2021) (2021). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 72-89. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

<a name=bib-depiper_learning_2021></a>[DePiper, G. et
al.](#cite-depiper_learning_2021) (2021). "Learning by doing:
collaborative conceptual modelling as a path forward in ecosystem-based
management". In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_ 78.4, pp. 1217-1228.
ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsab054).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054)
(visited on Aug. 08, 2022).

<a name=bib-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et
al.](#cite-gaichas_implementing_2018) (2018). "Implementing Ecosystem
Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US
Mid-Atlantic". In: _Frontiers in Marine Science_ 5. ISSN: 2296-7745.
DOI:
[10.3389/fmars.2018.00442](https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffmars.2018.00442).
URL:
[https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract)
(visited on Nov. 20, 2018).

<a name=bib-muffley_there_2021></a>[Muffley, B. et
al.](#cite-muffley_there_2021) (2021). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management".
In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 90-106. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

<a name=bib-perretti_regime_2017></a>[Perretti, C. et
al.](#cite-perretti_regime_2017) (2017). "Regime shifts in fish
recruitment on the Northeast US Continental Shelf". En. In: _Marine
Ecology Progress Series_ 574, pp. 1-11. ISSN: 0171-8630, 1616-1599.
DOI: [10.3354/meps12183](https://doi.org/10.3354%2Fmeps12183). URL:
[http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/](http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/)
(visited on Feb. 10, 2022).
]

## Additional resources
.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* [Indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

]
.pull-right[
* [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <joseph.caracappa@noaa.gov>
]
]

???