class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide .title[ # State of the Ecosystem 2024 Overview
Mid-Atlantic and New England ] .subtitle[ ## NOAA Seminar
30 May 2024 ] .author[ ### Brandon Beltz,
Sarah Gaichas and Joseph Caracappa (editors),
Andy Beet, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith (data and section leads),
and all SOE contributors ] --- class: top, left <style> p.caption { font-size: 0.6em; } </style> <style> .reduced_opacity { opacity: 0.5; } </style> # State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting ## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers .pull-left-60[ - Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)) + Contextual information + Report evolving since 2016 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports - Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2021></a>([Bastille et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)) - Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2021></a>([Muffley et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)) + Risk assessment <a name=cite-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>([Gaichas et al., 2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract)) + Conceptual modeling <a name=cite-depiper_learning_2021></a>([DePiper et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054)) + Management strategy evaluation ([MSE](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse)) ] .pull-right-40[ *The IEA Loop<sup>1</sup>* ![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//iea-loop.png) .footnote[ [1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach ] ] ??? --- ## State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2023 structure for 2024* .pull-left[ ## 2024 Report Structure 1. Graphical summary + Page 1 report card re: objectives → + Page 2 risk summary bullets + Page 3 **2023 highlights* 1. Performance relative to management objectives 1. Risks to meeting management objectives + **Climate and Ecosystem risks* + Offshore wind development ![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 45%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_2.png)![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets, 45%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_3.png) ] .pull-right[ <table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; color: black; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><strong>Provisioning and Cultural Services</strong></td></tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social & Cultural </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td> </tr> <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><strong>Supporting and Regulating Services</strong></td></tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] ??? .contrib[ * except for 2 *synthetic replacements* ] --- ## Ecosystem synthesis themes: still framing! but replace p.3 with 2023 Highlights Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management * Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. * Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem. * Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment. .pull-left[ ![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SystemDrivers_v5.jpg) ] .pull-right[ ![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg) ] --- ## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures .pull-left[ Spatial scale ![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EPU_Designations_Map.jpg) A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc), and indicator [data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) and [catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/) are available online. ] .pull-right[ Key to figures <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="396" /> .contrib[ Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html) <p style="color:#FF8C00;">Orange line = significant increase</p> <p style="color:#9932CC;">Purple line = significant decrease</p> No color line = not significant or < 30 years <p style="background-color:#D3D3D3;">Grey background = last 10 years</p> ] ] --- ## Report structure 2024: same as 2021-2023 with more management risk emphasis .pull-left[ * Performance relative to management objectives - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable? - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes - Multiple drivers - Regime shifts - Ecosystem reorganization * Objectives - Seafood production - Profits - Recreational opportunities - Stability - Social and cultural - Protected species ] .pull-right[ * Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - Same *What* and *Why* as Performance Section - New structure for Climate section - Fishery risk indicator - Climate and ecosystem drivers of fishery risk - Future considerations * Risk categories + *Climate and Ecosystem Change* + *Risk to spatial management* + *Risk to seasonal management* + *Risk to quota setting/rebuilding* + Other ocean uses + Offshore wind development ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_2.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## Mid-Atlantic State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: **Performance relative to management objectives** .pull-left-60[ Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Recreational opportunities: Effort ![:img increasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//increase.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); Effort diversity ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Stability: Fishery ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of: * Fishing engagement and reliance by community * Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community Protected species: * Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png) * Recover endangered populations (NARW) ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-NE-508_Page_2.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: **Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank** .pull-left-60[ Seafood production Total ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), Managed ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), Both ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Profits ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png) Recreational opportunities: Effort ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) Stability: Fishery ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), Commercial ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of: * Fishing engagement and reliance by community * Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community Protected species: * Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png) * Recover endangered populations ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), NARW ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Gray seal ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png) ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-NE-030424_Page_3.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## New England State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: **Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine** .pull-left-60[ Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Profits Total ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); NEFMC Managed ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) .reduced_opacity[ Recreational opportunities: Effort ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) Stability: Fishery ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), Commercial ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of: * Fishing engagement and reliance by community * Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community Protected species: * Maintain bycatch below thresholds (harbor porpoise, gray seals) ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png) * Recover endangered populations ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), NARW ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Gray seal ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png)] Salmon ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_3.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: **Risks to meeting fishery management objectives** .pull-left-60[ Climate: risks to spatial and seasonal management, quota setting and rebuilding * Fish and protected species distribution shifts * Changing spawning and migration timing * Multiple stocks with poor condition, declining productivity Other ocean uses: offshore wind development * Current revenue in proposed areas - 1-23% by Mid-Atlantic port (some with EJ concerns) - 1–34% by New England port (some with EJ concerns) - 1-20% by MAFMC managed species - 3-54% by NEFMC managed species * Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks * Gulf of Maine fisheries/offshore wind IEA in progress ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_4.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2024: **New section this year: 2023 Highlights** .pull-left-60[ Notable 2023 events and conditions * South Fork Wind and Vineyard Wind 1 construction started * Scallop die-off elephant trunk 2022-2023 * Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer * Record *low* hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay * GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale * 2nd ranked GOM bottom heatwave * Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf * Gulf Stream changes altering shelf break habitats * El Nino. Warmest year on record globally. Again. ] .pull-right-40[ ] --- # 2024 Performance relative to management objectives .center[ ![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//5_FISHING.png) ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//6_INDUSTRY.png) ![:img Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//18.MULTIPLE_SYSTEM_DRIVERS.png) ![:img Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//22.SPIRITUAL_CULTURAL.png) ![:img Protected species icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//16.PROTECTEDSPECIES.png) ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)   Risk elements: <span style="background-color:orange;">ComFood</span> and <span style="background-color:orange;">RecFood</span>, unchanged .pull-left[ Indicator: Commercial landings <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Indicators: Recreational harvest <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.png" width="504" /> ] Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions, and environmental change. ??? The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change. --- ## Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC?   Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl .pull-left[ Indicator: Stock status <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="504" /> .contrib[ Most stocks have good status. Spiny dogfish B and F status have improved. Mackerel F status has improved, but B is still below the threshold. Summer flounder F exceeds the limit. ] ] .pull-right[ Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="360" /> .contrib[ Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role ] ] ??? Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC. Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species. --- ## Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production Drivers .pull-left[ Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="576" /> .contrib[ Key: Black = NEFSC survey; <span style="color:#FF6A6A;">Red = NEAMAP survey</span> *New species categories, more southern species in Benthivores* ] ] .pull-right[ Declining managed benthos, aggregate planktivores .center[ ![:img ecodata::plot_comdat(report="MidAtlantic", plottype="guild")](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//ecodata_plot_comdat_midatlantic_guild.png) ] .contrib[ Markets and availability (benthos), fishery consolidation (planktivores) Monitor: * Climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions * Ecosystem composition and production changes * Fishing engagement ] ] ??? Stock status is above the minimum threshold for all but two stocks, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, so the decline in managed commercial seafood landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as landings have been below quotas for these species. In addition, regional availability of scallops has contributed to the decline of benthos landings not managed by the MAFMC, with some of the most productive grounds currently closed through rotational management. The long term decline in total planktivore landings is largely driven by Atlantic menhaden fishery dynamics, including a consolidation of processors leading to reduced fishing capacity between the 1990s and mid-2000s. Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council. --- ## Objective: New England Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) .pull-left[ Indicators: Commercial landings <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Indicators: Recreational harvest <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="504" /> ] Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions, and environmental change ??? Although scallop decreases are partially explained by a decreased TAC, analyses suggest that the drop in landings is at least partially due to market disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we do not anticipate the long-term declining trend in landings to change. --- ## New England Landings drivers: Stock status? Survey biomass? .pull-left[ Indicator: Stock status <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="540" /> .contrib[ Rebuilding requirements still likely playing a role in seafood declines ] ] .pull-right[ Indicator: Survey biomass <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="576" /> .contrib[ Biomass availability still seems unlikely driver ] ] --- ## Implications: New England Seafood Production .pull-left[ Drivers: * decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by the requirement to rebuild individual stocks as well as market dynamics * other drivers affecting recreational landings: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology Monitor: * climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions * ecosystem composition and production changes * fishing engagement <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="432" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="432" /> ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)   Risk element: <span style="background-color:orange;">CommRev</span>, unchanged .pull-left[ Indicator: Commercial Revenue <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="504" /> Recent change driven by benthos Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers: - Climate risk element: <span style="background-color:orange;">Surfclams</span> and <span style="background-color:red;">ocean quahogs</span> are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. - pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth ] .pull-right[ Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="468" /> ] ??? *baseline year for indicator has changed from previous reports* Although the Mid-Atlantic region shows declining revenue trends since 2016, inflation-adjusted revenue from harvested species was still greater than 1982 levels until 2022. In a similar manner to seafood landings, the results here are driven in large part by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as landings have been below quotas for these species, as well as lower quotas for Atlantic scallops. The declining Benthos category since 2012 may be partially caused by decreases in surfclam and ocean quahogs in the southern part of their range as harvest have shifted northward. Changes in other indicators, particularly those driving landings and those related to climate change, require monitoring as they may become important drivers of revenue in the future; for example: - Surfclams, ocean quahogs, and scallops are sensitive to warming ocean temperatures and ocean acidification. - [Multiple stressors](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/ocean_acidification) are interacting in Mid-Atlantic shellfish habitats. --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities ![:img increase icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//increase.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Risk element: <span style="background-color:yellow;">RecValue</span>, increased risk .pull-left[ Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Implications * Adding 2022 data, recreational effort (angler trips) again has a long term increase. * The increasing long term trend changed the risk category for the RecValue element back to low-moderate (previously ranked low risk). * *New risk element*: Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities. * Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling. ] ??? Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector. --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)   Risk elements: <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">FishRes1</span> and <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">FleetDiv</span>, unchanged .pull-left[ *Fishery* Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="504" /> .contrib[ Most recent fleet counts at low range of series ] ] .pull-right[ *Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="504" /> .contrib[ Most recent near series low value. ] <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Ecological Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)   Risk element: ecological diversity (put aside) .pull-left[ *Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (*not updated*) <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ *Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="504" /> Implications: * stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities * recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time * monitor zooplankton diversity driven by declining dominant species ] ??? While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring. --- ## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: <span style="background-color:yellow;">Social</span> Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance .pull-left[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="468" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-27-1.png" width="100%" /> <!--![Commercial fishing communities environmental justice spider plot](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EJ_Commercial_MAB.png)--> ] Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. ??? These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: <span style="background-color:yellow;">Social</span> Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance .pull-left[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-28-1.png" width="468" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="100%" /> <!--![Commercial fishing communities environmental justice spider plot](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EJ_Commercial_MAB.png)--> ] Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. ??? These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: <span style="background-color:yellow;">Social</span> Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance .pull-left[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="468" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="100%" /> <!--![Recreational fishing communities environmental justice spider plot](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EJ_Recreational_MAB.png)--> ] Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. --- ## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png) .pull-left[ Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-32-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-33-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Implications: * Currently meeting objectives for harbor porpoise and gray seals * Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">low</span>, 7 <span style="background-color:yellow;">low-mod</span>, 2 <span style="background-color:orange;">mod-high</span> risk, 1 improved * The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort. * The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts). ] ??? .reduced_opacity[] --- ## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) .pull-left[ Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-34-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-35-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Implications: * Signs the adult population stabilized 2020-2022 * Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability. * Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat. * Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species. 1 UME is pending closure for pinnipeds. <!--* Risk elements: - FW2Prey evaluated by species: 13 <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">low</span>, 3 <span style="background-color:yellow;">low-mod</span> risk, unchanged - TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector, unchanged--> ] --- # 2024 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives .center[ ![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//3_CLIMATE.png) ![:img Wind icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//24.WIND.png) ] .center[ ![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//13_FORAGEFISH.png) ![:img Apex predators icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//17.APEXPREDATORS.png) ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png) ] --- ## Risks to Spatial Management .pull-left[ Indicators: Fish distribution shifts <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="396" /> ] .pull-right[ Cetacean distribution shifts <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-37-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Risks to Spatial Management .pull-left[ Drivers: Forage shifts, temperature increase <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/forageshifts-1.png" alt="Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for 20 forage fish species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, with increasing trend (orange) for fall eastward and northward center of gravity." width="576" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/long-term-sst-1.png" alt="Northeast US annual sea surface temperature (SST, black), with increasing trend (orange)." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Drivers: changing ocean habitat <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/GSI-1.png" alt="Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall (black). Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position, with increasing trend (orange)." width="504" /> .contrib[ Cold pool temperature and spatial extent ] <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/cold-pool-size-1.png" alt="Seasonal cold pool mean temperature (left) and spatial extent index (right), based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles), with declining trends (purple)." width="540" /> ] --- ## Risks to Seasonal Management Indicators: spawning timing, migration change .pull-left[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/spawntiming-1.png" alt="Percent resting stage (non-spawning) mature female fish (black) with significant increases (orange) and decreases (purple) from two haddock and three yellowtail flounder stocks: CC = Cape Cod Gulf of Maine, GOM = Gulf of Maine, GB = Georges Bank, SNE = Southern New England." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ * Recreational tuna fisheries 50 days earlier in the year in 2019 compared to 2002. * In Cape Cod Bay, peak spring habitat use by right and humpback whales has shifted 18-19 days later over time. ] --- ## Risks to Seasonal Management Drivers .pull-left[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/transition-1.png" alt="Ocean summer length in the MAB: the annual total number of days between the spring thermal transition date and the fall thermal transition date (black), with an increasing trend (orange)." width="504" /> .contrib[ Cold pool seasonal persistence ] <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/cold-pool-time-1.png" alt="Cold pool persistence index based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles)." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Future considerations * Management actions that rely on effective alignment of fisheries availability and biological processes should continue to evaluate whether prior assumptions on seasonal timings still hold. * New indicators should be developed to monitor timing shifts for stocks. ] ??? --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAB_Condition_allsex_2023-LaurelSmith-NOAAFederal_2024_crop.jpg") background-size: 630px background-position: right ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding Indicators: fish productivity and condition .pull-left[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/productivity-anomaly-1.png" alt="Fish productivity measures. Left: Small fish per large fish survey biomass anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Right: assessment recruitment per spawning stock biomass anomaly for stocks mainly in the Mid-Atlantic. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line, drawn across all years with the same number of stocks analyzed." width="576" /> ] .pull-right[ ] ??? <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/mab-cf-1.png" alt="Condition factor for fish species in the MAB based on fall NEFSC bottom trawl survey data. MAB data are missing for 2017 due to survey delays, and no survey was conducted in 2020." width="864" /> --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding .pull-left[ Drivers: Forage Quality and Abundance <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/energy-density-1.png" alt="Forage fish energy density mean and standard deviation by season and year, compared with 1980s (solid line) and 1990s (dashed line) values." width="540" /> <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/foragebio-1.png" alt="Forage fish index in the MAB for spring (blue) and fall (red) surveys, with a decline (purple) in fall. Index values are relative to the maximum observation within a region across surveys." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Drivers: Low tropic levels <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/zoopanom-1.png" alt="Changes in zooplankton abundance in the MAB for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." width="360" /> ] --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding .pull-left[ Drivers: Environmental *2023 Thermal habitat area by depth* <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-38-1.png" width="504" /> *OA in shellfish habitat* <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/mab-oa-1.png" alt="Locations where bottom aragonite saturation state ($\Omega_{Arag}$; summer only: June-August) were at or below the laboratory-derived sensitivity level for Atlantic sea scallop (left panel) and longfin squid (right panel) for the time periods 2007-2022 (dark cyan) and 2023 only (magenta). Gray circles indicate locations where bottom `\(\Omega_{Arag}\)` values were above the species specific sensitivity values.." width="100%" /> ] .pull-right[ Drivers: Predation *Seals increasing, sharks stable, 50% of HMS populations above target* <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic   Element: OceanUse .pull-left[ Indicators: fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-40-1.png" width="504" /> Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species? <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/wind-rev-NE-MAFMC-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/NARW_hotspots_final_2024.jpg") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Summary .pull-left[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-42-1.png" width="504" /> Implications: * Current plans for buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region * Planned wind areas overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise. ] .pull-right[] ??? * 1-23% of port revenue from fisheries currently comes from areas proposed for offshore wind development. Some communities have environmental justice concerns and gentrification vulnerability. * Up to 20% of annual commercial landings and revenue for Mid-Atlantic species occur in lease areas. Evaluating the impacts to scientific surveys has begun. --- .pull-left[ ## 2023 Highlights * Hypoxia and OA off NJ ![:img NJ hypoxia](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/Figure2-GraceSaba_2024.png) * Record *low* hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay since 1995, relatively cool summer with high salinity. * Sea scallop recruitment detected Spring 2022, gone in Spring 2023 * Days in 2022 at or above scallop stress temperature 17-19 C → ] .pull-right[ ![:img scallop stress bottom temp, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/bottom_temp_threshold_17_19_Elephant_Trunk.png) ] ??? In Chesapeake Bay, [hypoxia conditions](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/ches_bay_synthesis.html) were the lowest on record (since 1995), creating more suitable habitat for multiple fin fish and benthic species. Cooler [Chesapeake Bay water temperatures](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/ches_bay_sst.html) paired with low hypoxia in the summer suggest conditions that season were favorable for striped bass. Cooler summer temperatures also support juvenile summer flounder growth. However, warmer winter and spring water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay, along with other environmental factors (such as low flow), may have played a role in low production of juvenile striped bass in 2023. Higher-than-average [salinity](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/ch_bay_sal.html) across the Bay was likely driven by low precipitation and increased the area of available habitat for species such as croaker, spot, menhaden, and red drum, while restricting habitat area for invasive blue catfish. --- ## 2023 Highlights * Gulf Stream inshore, fewer rings .pull-left[ ![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/MAP_SST_Gulf_Stream_2024.png) ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-43-1.png" width="504" /> Intermittent warm waters like this can be threats to temperature sensitive species, especially species at the southern end of their range or are not mobile (e.g. scallops), while also providing suitable habitat for more southern species. ] --- ## 2023 Highlights * Gulf of Maine giant bloom and bottom heatwave .pull-left[ ![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/2023-GOMbloom-internalreview.png) ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240530_SOE_Seminar_Beltz_files/figure-html/chl-current-year-1.png" alt="2023 median weekly chlorophyll concentrations (green line) with standard deviation 1998-2023 (gray shading)." width="504" /> ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png") background-size: 350px background-position: right bottom ## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 80 contributors from 20+ institutions .table[ ![:col_row Kimberly Bastille<br> Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA)<br> Andy Beet<br> Brandon Beltz<br> Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)<br> Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)<br> Baoshan Chen (Stony Brook University)<br> Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut)<br> Joseph Caracappa<br> Doug Christel (GARFO)<br> Patricia Clay<br> Lisa Colburn<br> Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)<br> Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)<br> Art Degaetano (Cornell U)<br> Geret DePiper<br> Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS)<br> Hubert du Pontavice<br> Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)<br> Michael Fogarty<br> Paula Fratantoni<br> Kevin Friedland<br> Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)<br> Sarah Gaichas<br> Ben Galuardi (GARFO)<br> Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth)<br> James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)<br> Lori Garzio (Rutgers University), Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br> Sean Hardison<br> Dvora Hart<br> Kimberly Hyde<br> John Kocik<br> Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)<br> Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br> Scott Large<br> Gabe Larouche (Cornell U)<br> Daniel Linden<br> Andrew Lipsky<br> Sean Lucey<br> Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)<br> Chris Melrose<br> Shannon Meseck<br> Ryan Morse<br> Ray Mroch (SEFSC)<br> Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)<br> Kimberly Murray<br> David Moe Nelson (NCCOS)<br> Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)<br> Chris Orphanides<br> Richard Pace<br> Debi Palka<br> Tom Parham (Maryland DNR)<br> Charles Perretti<br> CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)<br> Kristin Precoda, Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)<br> Jeffrey Runge (U Maine)<br> Grace Saba (Rutgers)<br> Vincent Saba<br> Sarah Salois<br> Chris Schillaci (GARFO)<br> Amy Schueller (SEFSC)<br> Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University)<br> Dave Secor (CBL)<br> Angela Silva<br> Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST)<br> Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)<br> Laurel Smith<br> Talya tenBrink (GARFO)<br> Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)<br> Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)<br> John Walden<br> Harvey Walsh<br> Changhua Weng<br> Dave Wilcox (VIMS)<br> Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM)<br> Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources)<br> Mark Wuenschel<br> Qian Zhang (U Maryland)] ] ??? --- ## References .contrib[ <a name=bib-bastille_improving_2021></a>[Bastille, K. et al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2021) (2021). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 72-89. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: [10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155). URL: [https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155) (visited on Apr. 16, 2021). <a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: [10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038). URL: [https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701) (visited on Mar. 09, 2018). <a name=bib-depiper_learning_2021></a>[DePiper, G. et al.](#cite-depiper_learning_2021) (2021). "Learning by doing: collaborative conceptual modelling as a path forward in ecosystem-based management". In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_ 78.4, pp. 1217-1228. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: [10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsab054). URL: [https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054) (visited on Aug. 08, 2022). <a name=bib-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et al.](#cite-gaichas_implementing_2018) (2018). "Implementing Ecosystem Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US Mid-Atlantic". In: _Frontiers in Marine Science_ 5. ISSN: 2296-7745. DOI: [10.3389/fmars.2018.00442](https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffmars.2018.00442). URL: [https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract) (visited on Nov. 20, 2018). <a name=bib-muffley_there_2021></a>[Muffley, B. et al.](#cite-muffley_there_2021) (2021). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management". In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 90-106. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: [10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156). URL: [https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156) (visited on Apr. 16, 2021). ] ## Additional resources .pull-left[ * [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata) * [Indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/) * [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc) ] .pull-right[ * [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf) .contrib[ * Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations * Contact: <Brandon.Beltz@noaa.gov> ] ] ??? --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE_feature_image.png") background-size: 1200px background-position: center .right[ <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> # Thank you! # Questions? ]