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State of the Ecosystem Structure
Proposed 2024

SOE January Synthesis Meeting
16 January 2024

Sarah Gaichas, Andy Beet, Brandon Beltz, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
and all SOE contributors

1 / 44

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports
  • Open science emphasis (Bastille et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley et al., 2020)

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State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2023 structure for 2024*

2024 Report Structure

  1. Graphical summary
    • Page 1 report card re: objectives →
    • Page 2 risk summary bullets
    • Page 3 2023 snapshot*
  2. Performance relative to management objectives
  3. Risks to meeting management objectives
    • Climate and Ecosystem risks*
    • Offshore wind development
  • except for 2 synthetic replacements

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary tableState of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets

Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives
Objective Categories Indicators reported
Provisioning and Cultural Services
Seafood Production Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem)
Social & Cultural Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status
Protected Species Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities
Supporting and Regulating Services
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
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Ecosystem synthesis themes: still framing! but replace p.3 with 2023 Overview

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

  • Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways.
  • Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to regime shifts — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.
  • Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

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New PAGE 3 this year; 2023 Highlights/Overview/Postmortem

Needs a name

Bulleted and graphical observations of anomalous conditions in 2023

  • Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf
  • Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer
  • GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale
  • Heatwaves (??)
  • Gulf Stream changes radically altering shelf break habitats

THIS WILL BE DECIDED ON WEDNESDAY

GOM chlorophyll anomaly

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State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

A glossary of terms (2021 Memo 5), detailed technical methods documentation and indicator data are available online.

Key to figures

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or < 30 years

Grey background = last 10 years

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2024 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo SARAH STILL TO UPDATE

Request Year Source Status Progress Memo Section
Profits vs Revenue 2023 Everybody 1
OA linked to scallop harvest in areas where aragonite saturation is highlighted. 2023 Everybody 2
Document usage of reports and supporting products 2023 NEFMC 3
Time series of social indicators 2023 NEFMC 4
Stability indicator - yield over time in NE 2023 NEFMC 5
Vessel-level diversity vs fleet level diversity 2023 NEFMC 6
climate change impacts on NEFSC surveys - change in survey catchability 2023 NEFMC 7
PRIORITY! threshold analysis - tipping points and uncertainty/spatial variability characterization 2023 NEFMC 8
Inclusion of upcoming HMS climate vulnerability assessment 2023 NEFMC 9
PRIORITY! Sum of TAC/Landings Relative to TAC 2023 NEFMC 10
PRIORITY! Focus on benthic indicators 2023 NEFMC 11
Trend Analysis / Break points 2022 MAFMC SSC 12
Environmental Justice - Further Explanation and maybe have Soc Sci folks on call to explain 2022 MAFMC SSC 13
SOE usage tracking 2022 MAFMC SSC 14
Tell Social stories like we try to tell biological stories 2022 GARFO 15
What determines a "risk"? Include aquaculture as a risk? 2022 NEFMC SSC 16
Include estimates of inclusion years in request memo 2022 NEFMC SSC 17
impact of climate on data streams (changes in catchability of survey) 2022 NEFMC SSC 18
Modeling cold pool/wcr and wind development interactions 2022 MAFMC 19
Using phytoplankton trends to forecast fish stocks 2022 MAFMC 20
Include New England ports with significant reliance on mid species be included in the MA SOE 2022 MAFMC 21
Short term forecasting (water temp, productivity) 2022 NEFMC 22
Add "This report is for [audience]" 2021 MAFMC SSC In SOE Introduction section 23
State management objectives first in report 2021 NEFMC In SOE Introduction section + Table 24
Ocean acidification (OA) in NEFMC SOE 2021 NEFMC SSC In SOE Climate risks section 25
Habitat impact of fishing based on gear. 2021 NEFMC In SOE Habitat risks section 26
Revisit right whale language 2021 NEFMC In SOE Protected species section 27
Sum of TAC/ Landings relative to TAC 2021 MAFMC SSC In SOE-MAFMC Seafood production section 28
Estuarine Water Quality 2020 NEFMC In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC 29
More direct opportunities for feedback 2021 MAFMC SSC In progress MAFMC SSC ecosystem subgroup 30
Further definition of regime shift 2021 MAFMC SSC In progress Regime shift analyses for specific indicators define "abrupt" and "persistent" quantitatively 31
Expand collaboration with Canadian counterparts 2021 MAFMC SSC In progress Currently drafting a NMFS-DFO climate/fisheries collaboration framework. 32
Fall turnover date index 2021 MAFMC SSC In progress See Current Conditions report 33
Links between species availability inshore/offshore (estuarine conditions) and trends in recreational fishing effort? 2021 MAFMC In progress Bluefish prey index inshore/offshore partially addresses 34
Apex predator index (pinnipeds) 2021 NEFMC In progress Protected species branch developing time series 35
Forage availability index (Herring/Sandlance) 2021 NEFMC In progress Bluefish prey index partially addresses 36
Fishery gear modifications accounted for in shark CPUE? 2021 MAFMC In progress Updated methods in tech-doc 37
Trend analysis 2021 NEFMC SSC In progress Evaluating empirical thresholds 38
Regime shifts in Social-Economic indicators 2021 NEFMC SSC In progress National working group and regional study 39
Linking Condition 2020 MAFMC In progress Not ready for 2022 40
Cumulative weather index 2020 MAFMC In progress Data gathered for prototype 41
VAST and uncertainty 2020 Both Councils In progress Not ready for 2022 42
Seal index 2020 MAFMC In progress Not ready for 2022 43
Breakpoints 2020 NEFMC In progress Evaluating empirical thresholds 44
Management complexity 2019 MAFMC In progress Student work needs further analysis, no further work this year 45
Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity) 2019 MAFMC In progress Project with A. Hollander 46
Avg weight of diet components by feeding group 2019 Internal In progress Part of fish condition project 47
Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds 2019 MAFMC In progress Intern evaluated trends in guild diets 48
Inflection points for indicators 2019 Both Councils In progress Evaluating empirical thresholds 49
Recreational bycatch mortality as an indicator of regulatory waste 2021 MAFMC SSC Not started Lacking resources this year 50
Sturgeon Bycatch 2021 MAFMC SSC Not started Lacking resources this year 51
Decomposition of diversity drivers highlighting social components 2021 MAFMC SSC Not started Lacking resources this year 52
Changing per capita seafood consumption as driver of revenue? 2021 MAFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 53
Nutrient input, Benthic Flux and POC(particulate organic carbon ) to inform benthic productivity by something other than surface indidcators 2021 MAFMC SSC Not started Lacking resources this year 54
Relate OA to nutrient input; are there "dead zones" (hypoxia)? 2021 MAFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 55
Indicators of chemical pollution in offshore waters 2021 MAFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 56
How does phyto size comp affect EOF indicator, if at all? 2021 MAFMC Not started May pursue with MAFMC SSC eco WG 57
Indicator of scallop pred pops poorly sampled by bottom trawls 2021 NEFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 58
Compare EOF (Link) thresholds to empirical thresholds (Large, Tam) 2021 MAFMC SSC Not started May pursue with MAFMC SSC eco WG 59
Time series analysis (Zooplankton/Forage fish) to tie into regime shifts 2021 MAFMC SSC Not started Lacking resources this year 60
Optimum yield for ecosystem 2021 NEFMC Not started May pursue with MAFMC SSC eco WG 61
Re-evaluate EPUs 2020 NEFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 62
Incorporate social sciences survey from council 2020 NEFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 63
Biomass of spp not included in BTS 2020 MAFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 64
Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics 2020 NEFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 65
Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp 2019 MAFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 66
Young of Year index from multiple surveys 2019 MAFMC Not started Lacking resources this year 67
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Report structure revised in 2021 to address Council requests and improve synthesis

  • Performance relative to management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Objectives
    • Seafood production
    • Profits
    • Recreational opportunities
    • Stability
    • Social and cultural
    • Protected species
  • Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Risk categories
    • Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification
      • Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis)
      • Productivity changes (system and fish)
      • Species interaction changes
      • Community structure changes
    • Other ocean uses
      • Offshore wind development
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Report structure 2024: towards improved synthesis

  • Performance relative to management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Objectives
    • Seafood production
    • Profits
    • Recreational opportunities
    • Stability
    • Social and cultural
    • Protected species
  • Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Risk categories
    • Long term trends and current status:
      • Distribution shifts
      • Changes in productivity
      • Changes in timing
      • Changes in physiology
    • Other ocean uses
      • Offshore wind development
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Performance relative to management objectives

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort increasing arrow icon above average icon icon; Effort diversity decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Stability: Fishery no trend icon near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations (NARW) decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue

  • Heat waves and Gulf Stream instability
  • Estuarine, coastal, and offshore habitats affected, with range of species responses
  • Distribution shifts complicate management
  • Multiple fish with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development

  • Current revenue in proposed areas
    • 1-34% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    • up to 17% by managed species
  • Different development impacts for species preferring soft bottom vs. hard bottom
  • Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
  • Rapid buildout in patchwork of areas
  • Scientific survey mitigation required
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank

Seafood production no trend icon, below average icon icon

Profits no trend icon, above average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort no trend icon, near average icon icon; Effort diversity no trend icon, near average icon icon

Stability: Fishery mixed trend icon, Commercial below average icon icon Rec near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations mixed trend icon, NARW below average icon icon Gray seal above average icon icon
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits Total no trend icon, above average icon icon; NEFMC Managed decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort no trend icon, near average icon icon; Effort diversity no trend icon, near average icon icon

Stability: Fishery mixed trend icon, Commercial below average icon icon Rec near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations mixed trend icon, NARW below average icon icon Gray seal above average icon icon
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue

  • 2022 among warmest years on record
  • Gulf Stream instability
  • Mid-Atlantic cold pool becoming warmer, smaller, and shorter in duration
  • Gulf of Maine fall bloom highest in time series
  • Mixed fish condition
  • Distribution shifts complicate management
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development

  • Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is beginning for offshore wind and fisheries in the Gulf of Maine
  • Current revenue in proposed areas
    • 1-31% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    • Up to 12% annual commercial revenue by NEFMC-managed species
  • Overlap with known important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
  • Scientific survey mitigation in progress
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2023 Performance relative to management objectives

Fishing icon made by EDAB       Fishing industry icon made by EDAB       Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB       Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB       Protected species icon made by EDAB

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Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon   Risk elements: ComFood and RecFood, unchanged

Indicator: Commercial landings

Indicators: Recreational harvest

Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change.

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The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change.

Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC?   Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl

Indicator: Stock status

Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target

Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role

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Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC.

Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species.

Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production Drivers

Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends

Key: Black = NEFSC survey;

Red = NEAMAP survey

New species categories, more southern species in Benthivores
  • Declining managed benthos, aggregate planktivores

  • Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor:

  • climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions

  • ecosystem composition and production changes

  • fishing engagement
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Because stock status is mostly acceptable, ABCs don't appear to be constraining for many stocks, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, the decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as quotas are not binding for these species.

Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.

Objective: New England Seafood production decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Indicators: Commercial landings

I never put NAFO back in for 2019-2022...

Indicators: Recreational harvest

Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change

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Although scallop decreases are partially explained by a decreased TAC, analyses suggest that the drop in landings is at least partially due to market disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we do not anticipate the long-term declining trend in landings to change.

New England Landings drivers: Stock status? Survey biomass?

Indicator: Stock status

Stocks below BMSY increased from XX, stocks below ½ BMSY decreased from YY. Management still likely playing large role in seafood declines

Indicator: Survey biomass

Biomass availability still seems unlikely driver

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No indicator: New England Realized catch compared to specified catch

Need to work with NEFMC staff to obtain dataset equivalent to that submitted by MAFMC staff for the Mid Atlantic.

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Implications: New England Seafood Production

Drivers:

  • decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by the requirement to rebuild individual stocks as well as market dynamics
  • other drivers affecting recreational landings: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor:

  • climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions
  • ecosystem composition and production changes
  • fishing engagement

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Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon   Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

Indicator: Commercial Revenue

Recent change driven by benthos
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:

  • Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification.
  • pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth

Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices baseline year for indicator has changed from previous reports

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Recent declines in prices contributed to falling revenue as quantities landed did not increase enough to counteract declining prices.

Indicator: Commercial Revenue

Both regions driven by single species

  • GOM high revenue despite low volume
  • Fluctuations in GB due to rotational management

Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:

  • Sea scallops and lobsters are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification

Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices

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Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities no trend icon above average icon icon; decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon Risk element: RecValue, decreased risk; add diversity?

Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity

Implications

  • Increased angler trips in 2020 relative to previous years strongly influenced the previously reported long term increase in recreational effort. Adding 2021 data, recreational effort (angler trips) has no long term trend.
  • The increasing long term trend from 2021 changed the risk categories for the RecValue element to low-moderate (previously ranked high risk). No trend indicates low risk.
  • Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.
  • Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.
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Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.

Objective: New England Recreational opportunities no trend icon near average icon icon

Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity

Implications

  • Absence of a long-term trend in recreational effort suggests relative stability in the overall number of recreational opportunities in New England
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Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability no trend icon near average icon icon   Risk elements: FishRes1 and FleetDiv, unchanged

Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

Most recent fleet counts at low range of series

Fishery Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity

Most recent near series low value. Covid role?

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Ecological Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (not updated)

Ecological Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey

Implications:

  • stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities
  • recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time
  • monitor zooplankton diversity driven by declining dominant species
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While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring.

Objective: New England Fishery Stability decreasing arrow icon Com below average icon icon; Rec near average icon icon

Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

Most recent around lowest points in series

Fishery Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity

Most recent lowest point in series. Covid role?

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Ecological Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (not updated)

Ecological Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey

Implications:

  • Commercial fishery diversity driven by small number of species
  • Diminished capacity to respond to future fishing opportunities
  • Recreational diversity due to species distributions and regulations
  • Adult diversity in GOM suggests increase in warm-water species
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  • Overall stability in the fisheries and ecosystem components
  • Increasing diversity in several indicators warrants continued monitoring

Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: Social

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

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These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: Social

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

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Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

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These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

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Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch

Implications:

  • Currently meeting objectives

  • Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged

  • The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

  • The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).

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Objectives: All Areas Protected species Recover endangered populations decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

Implications:

  • Signs the adult population stabilized 2020-2022

  • Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

  • Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

  • Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species.

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2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate icon made by EDAB       Wind icon made by EDAB

Hydrography icon made by EDAB       Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB       Forage fish icon made by EDAB       Apex predators icon made by EDAB       Other human uses icon made by EDAB

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Skipping to Other Ocean Uses

Revised Climate and Ecosystem Risk synthesis tomorrow

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Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic   Element: OceanUse

Indicators: development timeline (updated??), fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species?

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Risks: Offshore Wind Development New England

Indicators: fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: which Mid-Atlantic ports have significant reliance on New England managed species?

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Risks: Offshore Wind Development Summary

Implications: revise

  • X% of port revenue from fisheries currently comes from areas proposed for offshore wind development. Some communities have environmental justice concerns and gentrification vulnerability.
  • Up to Y% of annual commercial landings and revenue for Mid-Atlantic species occur in lease areas.
  • Development will affect species differently, negatively affecting species that prefer soft bottom habitat while potentially benefiting species that prefer hard structured habitat.
  • Planned wind areas overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise.
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Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region Evaluating the impacts to scientific surveys has begun.

THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 71 contributors from 20+ institutions UPDATE THIS

Kimberly Bastille
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA)
Andy Beet
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut)
Joseph Caracappa
Doug Christel (GARFO)
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Art Degaetano (Cornell U)
Geret DePiper
Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS)
Hubert du Pontavice
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Sarah Gaichas
Ben Galuardi (GARFO)
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Lori Garzio (Rutgers University)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
John Kosik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Scott Large
Gabe Larouche (Cornell U)
Daniel Linden
Andrew Lipsky
Sean Lucey
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Chris Melrose
Shannon Meseck
Ryan Morse
Ray Mroch (SEFSC)
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)
Kimberly Murray
Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Debi Palka
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR)
Charles Perretti
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Kristin Precoda
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Grace Saba (Rutgers)
Vincent Saba
Sarah Salois
Chris Schillaci (GARFO)
Amy Schueller (SEFSC)
Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University)
Dave Secor (CBL)
Angela Silva
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST)
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)
Laurel Smith
Talya tenBrink (GARFO)
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Changhua Weng
Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM)
Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources)
Mark Wuenschel
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References

Bastille, K. et al. (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

DePiper, G. S. et al. (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsx038. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701 (visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

Muffley, B. et al. (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

Additional resources

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports
  • Open science emphasis (Bastille et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley et al., 2020)

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