class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide .title[ # State of the Ecosystem Structure <br /> Proposed 2024 ] .subtitle[ ## SOE January Synthesis Meeting<br /> 16 January 2024 ] .author[ ### Sarah Gaichas, Andy Beet, Brandon Beltz, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith<br /> Northeast Fisheries Science Center<br /> and all SOE contributors ] --- class: top, left <style> p.caption { font-size: 0.6em; } </style> <style> .reduced_opacity { opacity: 0.5; } </style> # State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting ## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers .pull-left[ - Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)) + Contextual information + Report evolving since 2016 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports - Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2020></a>([Bastille et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)) - Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2020></a>([Muffley et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)) ] .pull-right[ *The IEA Loop<sup>1</sup>*  .footnote[ [1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach ] ] ??? --- ## State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2023 structure for 2024* .pull-left[ ## 2024 Report Structure 1. Graphical summary + Page 1 report card re: objectives → + Page 2 risk summary bullets + Page 3 *2023 snapshot** 1. Performance relative to management objectives 1. Risks to meeting management objectives + *Climate and Ecosystem risks** + Offshore wind development .contrib[ * except for 2 *synthetic replacements* ]  ] .pull-right[ <table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><strong>Provisioning and Cultural Services</strong></td></tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social & Cultural </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td> </tr> <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;"><strong>Supporting and Regulating Services</strong></td></tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- ## Ecosystem synthesis themes: still framing! but replace p.3 with 2023 Overview Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management * Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. * Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem. * Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment. .pull-left[  ] .pull-right[  ] --- ## New PAGE 3 this year; 2023 Highlights/Overview/Postmortem .pull-left[ Needs a name Bulleted and graphical observations of anomalous conditions in 2023 * Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf * Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer * GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale * Heatwaves (??) * Gulf Stream changes radically altering shelf break habitats THIS WILL BE DECIDED ON WEDNESDAY ] .pull-right[  ] --- ## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures .pull-left[ Spatial scale  A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html) (2021 Memo 5), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online. ] .pull-right[ Key to figures <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="396" /> .contrib[ Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html) <p style="color:#FF8C00;">Orange line = significant increase</p> <p style="color:#9932CC;">Purple line = significant decrease</p> No color line = not significant or < 30 years <p style="background-color:#D3D3D3;">Grey background = last 10 years</p> ] ] --- ## 2024 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo *SARAH STILL TO UPDATE* .scroll-output[ <table class="table" style="font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Request </th> <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Year </th> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Source </th> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Status </th> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Progress </th> <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Memo Section </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Profits vs Revenue </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Everybody </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> OA linked to scallop harvest in areas where aragonite saturation is highlighted. </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Everybody </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 2 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Document usage of reports and supporting products </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 3 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Time series of social indicators </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 4 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Stability indicator - yield over time in NE </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 5 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Vessel-level diversity vs fleet level diversity </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 6 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> climate change impacts on NEFSC surveys - change in survey catchability </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 7 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> PRIORITY! threshold analysis - tipping points and uncertainty/spatial variability characterization </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 8 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Inclusion of upcoming HMS climate vulnerability assessment </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 9 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> PRIORITY! Sum of TAC/Landings Relative to TAC </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 10 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> PRIORITY! Focus on benthic indicators </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2023 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 11 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Trend Analysis / Break points </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 12 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Environmental Justice - Further Explanation and maybe have Soc Sci folks on call to explain </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 13 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> SOE usage tracking </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 14 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Tell Social stories like we try to tell biological stories </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> GARFO </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 15 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> What determines a "risk"? Include aquaculture as a risk? </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 16 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Include estimates of inclusion years in request memo </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 17 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> impact of climate on data streams (changes in catchability of survey) </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 18 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Modeling cold pool/wcr and wind development interactions </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 19 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Using phytoplankton trends to forecast fish stocks </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 20 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Include New England ports with significant reliance on mid species be included in the MA SOE </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 21 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Short term forecasting (water temp, productivity) </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 22 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Add "This report is for [audience]" </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In SOE </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Introduction section </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 23 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> State management objectives first in report </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In SOE </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Introduction section + Table </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 24 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Ocean acidification (OA) in NEFMC SOE </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In SOE </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Climate risks section </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 25 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Habitat impact of fishing based on gear. </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In SOE </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Habitat risks section </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 26 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Revisit right whale language </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In SOE </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Protected species section </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 27 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Sum of TAC/ Landings relative to TAC </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In SOE-MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Seafood production section </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 28 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Estuarine Water Quality </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 29 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> More direct opportunities for feedback </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> MAFMC SSC ecosystem subgroup </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 30 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Further definition of regime shift </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Regime shift analyses for specific indicators define "abrupt" and "persistent" quantitatively </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 31 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Expand collaboration with Canadian counterparts </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Currently drafting a NMFS-DFO climate/fisheries collaboration framework. </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 32 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Fall turnover date index </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> See Current Conditions report </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 33 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Links between species availability inshore/offshore (estuarine conditions) and trends in recreational fishing effort? </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Bluefish prey index inshore/offshore partially addresses </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 34 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Apex predator index (pinnipeds) </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Protected species branch developing time series </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 35 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Forage availability index (Herring/Sandlance) </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Bluefish prey index partially addresses </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 36 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Fishery gear modifications accounted for in shark CPUE? </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Updated methods in tech-doc </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 37 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Trend analysis </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Evaluating empirical thresholds </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 38 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Regime shifts in Social-Economic indicators </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> National working group and regional study </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 39 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Linking Condition </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Not ready for 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 40 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Cumulative weather index </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Data gathered for prototype </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 41 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> VAST and uncertainty </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Both Councils </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Not ready for 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 42 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Seal index </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Not ready for 2022 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 43 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Breakpoints </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Evaluating empirical thresholds </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 44 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Management complexity </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Student work needs further analysis, no further work this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 45 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity) </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Project with A. Hollander </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 46 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Avg weight of diet components by feeding group </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Internal </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Part of fish condition project </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 47 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Intern evaluated trends in guild diets </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 48 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Inflection points for indicators </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Both Councils </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> In progress </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Evaluating empirical thresholds </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 49 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Recreational bycatch mortality as an indicator of regulatory waste </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 50 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Sturgeon Bycatch </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 51 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Decomposition of diversity drivers highlighting social components </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 52 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Changing per capita seafood consumption as driver of revenue? </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 53 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Nutrient input, Benthic Flux and POC(particulate organic carbon ) to inform benthic productivity by something other than surface indidcators </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 54 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Relate OA to nutrient input; are there "dead zones" (hypoxia)? </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 55 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Indicators of chemical pollution in offshore waters </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 56 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> How does phyto size comp affect EOF indicator, if at all? </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> May pursue with MAFMC SSC eco WG </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 57 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Indicator of scallop pred pops poorly sampled by bottom trawls </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 58 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Compare EOF (Link) thresholds to empirical thresholds (Large, Tam) </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> May pursue with MAFMC SSC eco WG </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 59 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Time series analysis (Zooplankton/Forage fish) to tie into regime shifts </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC SSC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 60 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Optimum yield for ecosystem </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> May pursue with MAFMC SSC eco WG </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 61 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Re-evaluate EPUs </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 62 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Incorporate social sciences survey from council </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 63 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Biomass of spp not included in BTS </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 64 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NEFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 65 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 66 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;width: 10.5cm; "> Young of Year index from multiple surveys </td> <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> MAFMC </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 4.5cm; "> Not started </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> Lacking resources this year </td> <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 67 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- ## Report structure revised in 2021 to address Council requests and improve synthesis .pull-left[ * Performance relative to management objectives - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable? - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes - Multiple drivers - Regime shifts - Ecosystem reorganization * Objectives - Seafood production - Profits - Recreational opportunities - Stability - Social and cultural - Protected species ] .pull-right[ * Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable? - *Why* this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes - Multiple drivers - Regime shifts - Ecosystem reorganization * Risk categories - Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification - Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis) - Productivity changes (system and fish) - Species interaction changes - Community structure changes - Other ocean uses - Offshore wind development ] --- ## Report structure 2024: towards improved synthesis .pull-left[ * Performance relative to management objectives - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable? - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes - Multiple drivers - Regime shifts - Ecosystem reorganization * Objectives - Seafood production - Profits - Recreational opportunities - Stability - Social and cultural - Protected species ] .pull-right[ * Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable? - *Why* this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes - Multiple drivers - Regime shifts - Ecosystem reorganization * Risk categories - *Long term trends and current status:* - *Distribution shifts* - *Changes in productivity* - *Changes in timing* - *Changes in physiology* - Other ocean uses - Offshore wind development ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-03.16.23_Page_2.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: **Performance relative to management objectives** .pull-left-60[ Seafood production ,  Profits ,  Recreational opportunities: Effort  ; Effort diversity   Stability: Fishery  ; Ecological   Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of: * Fishing engagement and reliance by community * Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community Protected species: * Maintain bycatch below thresholds   * Recover endangered populations (NARW)   ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-03.16.23_Page_3.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: **Risks to meeting fishery management objectives** .pull-left-60[ Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue * Heat waves and Gulf Stream instability * Estuarine, coastal, and offshore habitats affected, with range of species responses * Distribution shifts complicate management * Multiple fish with poor condition, declining productivity Other ocean uses: offshore wind development * Current revenue in proposed areas - 1-34% by port (some with EJ concerns) - up to 17% by managed species * Different development impacts for species preferring soft bottom vs. hard bottom * Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks * Rapid buildout in patchwork of areas * Scientific survey mitigation required ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_2.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: **Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank** .pull-left-60[ Seafood production ,  Profits ,  Recreational opportunities: Effort , ; Effort diversity ,  Stability: Fishery , Commercial  Rec ; Ecological   Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of: * Fishing engagement and reliance by community * Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community Protected species: * Maintain bycatch below thresholds   * Recover endangered populations , NARW  Gray seal  ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_3.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: **Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine** .pull-left-60[ Seafood production ,  Profits Total , ; NEFMC Managed ,  Recreational opportunities: Effort , ; Effort diversity ,  Stability: Fishery , Commercial  Rec ; Ecological   Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of: * Fishing engagement and reliance by community * Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community Protected species: * Maintain bycatch below thresholds   * Recover endangered populations , NARW  Gray seal  ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_4.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: **Risks to meeting fishery management objectives** .pull-left-60[ Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue * 2022 among warmest years on record * Gulf Stream instability * Mid-Atlantic cold pool becoming warmer, smaller, and shorter in duration * Gulf of Maine fall bloom highest in time series * Mixed fish condition * Distribution shifts complicate management ] .pull-right-40[] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_4.png") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: **Risks to meeting fishery management objectives** .pull-left-60[ Other ocean uses: offshore wind development * Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is beginning for offshore wind and fisheries in the Gulf of Maine * Current revenue in proposed areas - 1-31% by port (some with EJ concerns) - Up to 12% annual commercial revenue by NEFMC-managed species * Overlap with known important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks * Scientific survey mitigation in progress ] .pull-right-40[] --- # 2023 Performance relative to management objectives .center[      ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production     Risk elements: <span style="background-color:red;">ComFood</span> and <span style="background-color:orange;">RecFood</span>, unchanged .pull-left[ Indicator: Commercial landings <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Indicators: Recreational harvest <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="504" /> ] Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change. ??? The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change. --- ## Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC?   Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl .pull-left[ Indicator: Stock status <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="360" /> .contrib[ Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role ] ] ??? Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC. Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species. --- ## Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production Drivers .pull-left[ Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" width="576" /> .contrib[ Key: Black = NEFSC survey; <p style="color:#FF6A6A;">Red = NEAMAP survey</p> *New species categories, more southern species in Benthivores* ] ] .pull-right[ .contrib[ * Declining managed benthos, aggregate planktivores <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" width="288" /> * Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology Monitor: * climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions * ecosystem composition and production changes * fishing engagement ] ] ??? Because stock status is mostly acceptable, ABCs don't appear to be constraining for many stocks, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, the decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as quotas are not binding for these species. Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council. --- ## Objective: New England Seafood production   .pull-left[ Indicators: Commercial landings <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="504" /> I never put NAFO back in for 2019-2022... ] .pull-right[ Indicators: Recreational harvest <br /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="504" /> ] Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change ??? Although scallop decreases are partially explained by a decreased TAC, analyses suggest that the drop in landings is at least partially due to market disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we do not anticipate the long-term declining trend in landings to change. --- ## New England Landings drivers: Stock status? Survey biomass? .pull-left[ Indicator: Stock status <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="540" /> .contrib[ Stocks below BMSY increased from XX, stocks below ½ BMSY decreased from YY. Management still likely playing large role in seafood declines ] ] .pull-right[ Indicator: Survey biomass <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="576" /> .contrib[ Biomass availability still seems unlikely driver ] ] --- ## No indicator: New England Realized catch compared to specified catch Need to work with NEFMC staff to obtain dataset equivalent to that submitted by MAFMC staff for the Mid Atlantic. --- ## Implications: New England Seafood Production .pull-left[ Drivers: * decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by the requirement to rebuild individual stocks as well as market dynamics * other drivers affecting recreational landings: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology Monitor: * climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions * ecosystem composition and production changes * fishing engagement <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="432" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="432" /> ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits     Risk element: <span style="background-color:orange;">CommRev</span>, unchanged .pull-left[ Indicator: Commercial Revenue <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="504" /> Recent change driven by benthos Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers: - Climate risk element: <span style="background-color:orange;">Surfclams</span> and <span style="background-color:red;">ocean quahogs</span> are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. - pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth ] .pull-right[ Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices *baseline year for indicator has changed from previous reports* <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="360" /> ] ??? Recent declines in prices contributed to falling revenue as quantities landed did not increase enough to counteract declining prices. --- ## Objective: New England Commercial Profits  .pull-left[ Indicator: Commercial Revenue <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="540" /> Both regions driven by single species * GOM high revenue despite low volume * Fluctuations in GB due to rotational management Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers: * Sea scallops and lobsters are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification ] .pull-right[ Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="540" /> ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities  ;   Risk element: <span style="background-color:yellow;">RecValue</span>, decreased risk; add diversity? .pull-left[ Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Implications * Increased angler trips in 2020 relative to previous years strongly influenced the previously reported long term increase in recreational effort. Adding 2021 data, recreational effort (angler trips) has no long term trend. * The increasing long term trend from 2021 changed the risk categories for the RecValue element to low-moderate (previously ranked high risk). No trend indicates low risk. * Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities. * Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling. ] ??? Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector. --- ## Objective: New England Recreational opportunities   .pull-left[ Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-27-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-28-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Implications * Absence of a long-term trend in recreational effort suggests relative stability in the overall number of recreational opportunities in New England ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability     Risk elements: <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">FishRes1</span> and <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">FleetDiv</span>, unchanged .pull-left[ *Fishery* Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="504" /> .contrib[ Most recent fleet counts at low range of series ] ] .pull-right[ *Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="504" /> .contrib[ Most recent near series low value. Covid role? ] <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Ecological Stability     Risk element: ecological diversity put aside, new indices .pull-left[ *Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (*not updated*) <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-32-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-33-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ *Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-34-1.png" width="504" /> Implications: * stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities * recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time * monitor zooplankton diversity driven by declining dominant species ] ??? While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring. --- ## Objective: New England Fishery Stability  Com ; Rec  .pull-left[ *Fishery* Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-35-1.png" width="504" /> .contrib[ Most recent around lowest points in series ] ] .pull-right[ *Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="504" /> .contrib[ Most recent lowest point in series. Covid role? ] <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-37-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Objective: New England Ecological Stability   .pull-left[ *Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (*not updated*) <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-38-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ *Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-40-1.png" width="504" /> Implications: * Commercial fishery diversity driven by small number of species * Diminished capacity to respond to future fishing opportunities * Recreational diversity due to species distributions and regulations * Adult diversity in GOM suggests increase in warm-water species ] ??? * Overall stability in the fisheries and ecosystem components * Increasing diversity in several indicators warrants continued monitoring --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: <span style="background-color:yellow;">Social</span> Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance .pull-left[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="468" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-42-1.png" width="100%" /> <!----> ] Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. ??? These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. --- ## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: <span style="background-color:yellow;">Social</span> Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance .pull-left[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-43-1.png" width="468" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-44-1.png" width="100%" /> <!----> ] Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. --- ## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance .pull-left[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-45-1.png" width="468" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-46-1.png" width="100%" /> <!----> ] Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. ??? These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. --- ## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance .pull-left[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-47-1.png" width="468" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-48-1.png" width="100%" /> <!----> ] Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. --- ## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds*   .pull-left[ Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch .reduced_opacity[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-49-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-50-1.png" width="504" /> ] ] .pull-right[ Implications: * Currently meeting objectives * Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">low</span>, 6 <span style="background-color:yellow;">low-mod</span>, 3 <span style="background-color:orange;">mod-high</span> risk, unchanged * The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort. * The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts). ] --- ## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Recover endangered populations*   .pull-left[ Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-51-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-52-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Implications: * Signs the adult population stabilized 2020-2022 * Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability. * Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat. * Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species. <!--* Risk elements: - FW2Prey evaluated by species: 13 <span style="background-color:lightgreen;">low</span>, 3 <span style="background-color:yellow;">low-mod</span> risk, unchanged - TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector, unchanged--> ] --- # 2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives .center[   ] .center[      ] --- # Skipping to Other Ocean Uses # Revised Climate and Ecosystem Risk synthesis tomorrow --- ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic   Element: OceanUse .pull-left[ Indicators: development timeline (updated??), fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-53-1.png" width="504" /> <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-54-1.png" width="504" /> Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species? <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wind-rev-NE-MAFMC-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-55-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development New England .pull-left[ Indicators: fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-56-1.png" width="504" /> Council request: which Mid-Atlantic ports have significant reliance on New England managed species? <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wind-rev-MA-NEFMC-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20240116_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-57-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/right_whales.jpg") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Summary .pull-left[ Implications: *revise* * X% of port revenue from fisheries currently comes from areas proposed for offshore wind development. Some communities have environmental justice concerns and gentrification vulnerability. * Up to Y% of annual commercial landings and revenue for Mid-Atlantic species occur in lease areas. * Development will affect species differently, negatively affecting species that prefer soft bottom habitat while potentially benefiting species that prefer hard structured habitat. * Planned wind areas overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise. ] .pull-right[] ??? Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region Evaluating the impacts to scientific surveys has begun. --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png") background-size: 350px background-position: right bottom ## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 71 contributors from 20+ institutions UPDATE THIS .table[ ![:col_row Kimberly Bastille<br> Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA)<br> Andy Beet<br> Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)<br> Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)<br> Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut)<br> Joseph Caracappa<br> Doug Christel (GARFO)<br> Patricia Clay<br> Lisa Colburn<br> Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)<br> Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)<br> Art Degaetano (Cornell U)<br> Geret DePiper<br> Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS)<br> Hubert du Pontavice<br> Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)<br> Michael Fogarty<br> Paula Fratantoni<br> Kevin Friedland<br> Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)<br> Sarah Gaichas<br> Ben Galuardi (GARFO)<br> Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth)<br> James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science), Lori Garzio (Rutgers University)<br> Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br> Sean Hardison<br> Kimberly Hyde<br> John Kosik<br> Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)<br> Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)<br> Scott Large<br> Gabe Larouche (Cornell U)<br> Daniel Linden<br> Andrew Lipsky<br> Sean Lucey<br> Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)<br> Chris Melrose<br> Shannon Meseck<br> Ryan Morse<br> Ray Mroch (SEFSC)<br> Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)<br> Kimberly Murray<br> Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)<br> Chris Orphanides<br> Richard Pace<br> Debi Palka<br> Tom Parham (Maryland DNR), Charles Perretti<br> CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)<br> Kristin Precoda<br> Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)<br> Grace Saba (Rutgers)<br> Vincent Saba<br> Sarah Salois<br> Chris Schillaci (GARFO)<br> Amy Schueller (SEFSC)<br> Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University)<br> Dave Secor (CBL)<br> Angela Silva<br> Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST)<br> Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)<br> Laurel Smith<br> Talya tenBrink (GARFO)<br> Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)<br> Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)<br> John Walden<br> Harvey Walsh<br> Changhua Weng<br> Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM)<br> Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources)<br> Mark Wuenschel ] ] ??? --- ## References .contrib[ <a name=bib-bastille_improving_2020></a>[Bastille, K. et al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2020) (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: [10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155). URL: [https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155) (visited on Dec. 09, 2020). <a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: [10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038). URL: [https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701) (visited on Mar. 09, 2018). <a name=bib-muffley_there_2020></a>[Muffley, B. et al.](#cite-muffley_there_2020) (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management". In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: [10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156). URL: [https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156) (visited on Dec. 09, 2020). ] ## Additional resources .pull-left[ * [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata) ] .pull-right[ * [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf) * [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc) * [Draft indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/) .contrib[ * Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations * Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov> ] ] ??? * Visualizations: * [Mid-Atlantic Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_MAB) * [Mid-Atlantic Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_MAB) * [Mid-Atlantic Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_MAB) * [New England Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_NE) * [New England Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_NE) * [New England Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_NE)