State of the Ecosystem Mid-Atlantic 2023

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# State of the Ecosystem Mid-Atlantic 2023
]
.subtitle[
## NY Shark Trends Science Workshop 14 November 2023
]
.author[
### Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Bastille, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith Northeast Fisheries Science Center Brandon Muffley, MAFMC and all SOE contributors
]

---

class: top, left

# [Mid Atlantic](https://doi.org/10.25923/vy6j-w454) State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting 
## Audience: Federal Fishery Managers

.pull-left[

- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper, et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
 + Contextual information
 + Report evolving since 2016
 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2021></a>([Bastille, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

- Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2021></a>([Muffley, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
 + Risk assessment <a name=cite-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>([Gaichas, et al., 2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract))
 + Conceptual modeling <a name=cite-depiper_learning_2021></a>([DePiper, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054))
 + Management strategy evaluation ([MSE](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse))
 
]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop1*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//iea-loop.png)

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]
???

---
## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online.  
]

.pull-right[
Key to figures
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="396" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

---
.pull-left[
## Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production

.table[
Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends
]

.contrib[
Key: Black = NEFSC survey; Red = NEAMAP survey
]
]

.pull-right[
.table[
* Declining seafood mainly benthos: surfclam/ocean quahog market drivers
]

<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.png" width="324" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.table[
* Declining total mainly planktivores: menhaden fishery consolidation
* Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions; ecosystem composition and production changes; fishing engagement
]
]

???
Stock status is above the minimum threshold for all but one stock, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, so the decline in commercial seafood landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as landings have been below quotas for these species. The long term decline in total planktivore landings is largely driven by Atlantic menhaden fishery dynamics, including a consolidation of processors leading to reduced fishing capacity between the 1990s and mid-2000s.

Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Risk element: RecValue, decreased risk

.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications

* Increased angler trips in 2020 relative to previous years strongly influenced the previously reported long term increase in recreational effort. Adding 2021 data, recreational effort (angler trips) has no long term trend.  
* The increasing long term trend from 2021 changed the risk categories for the RecValue element to low-moderate (previously ranked high risk). No trend indicates low risk.

* Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.  This metric could be added to the risk assessment.
* Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.

]

???
Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) &emsp; Risk elements: FishRes1 and FleetDiv, unchanged

.pull-left[
*Fishery*  Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Most recent commercial fleet counts at low range of series
]
]

.pull-right[
*Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Most recent commercial species revenue diversity near series low value
]

.contrib[
Recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time
]
]
---

.pull-left[ 
## Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic

Indicators: ocean currents, temperature, seasons
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" width="288" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="288" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[

]

.table[
The Gulf Stream is trending north. Ocean summer is lasting longer. In contrast to SST, long term bottom temperature is increasing in all seasons. Few surface and no bottom extreme warming events in 2022.
]
.contrib[]
???
Seasonal sea surface temperatures in 2022 were above average for most of the year,  however late spring storms caused deep mixing, which delayed stratification and surface warming in late spring and early summer. A combination of long-term ocean warming and extreme events should be used to assess total heat stress on marine organisms

---
## Risks: Climate change and offshore habitat 
.pull-left[
Indicator: cold pool indices
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: Mid Atlantic Ocean acidification
![:img Mid Seasonal pH](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/Saba_Fig_SOE_MAFMC.jpg)

]

.pull-right[

Indicator: warm core rings
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Summer aragonite saturation low for both Atlantic sea scallop and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and the nearshore and mid-shelf regions of the New Jersey shelf several times over the past decade.

There were fewer warm core rings near the continental shelf in 2022, which combined with economic fishery drivers may have contributed to total catch of *Illex* squid being less than 20% of the total catch reported in 2021.
.contrib[]
]
???

---
.pull-left-60[
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic; Element: EcoProd

Indicator: fish condition 
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="120%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: fish productivity anomaly &rarr;

Implications: 
Species in the MAB had mixed condition in 2022. Fish productivity based on surveys and assessments has been below average.

]

.pull-right-40[
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Black line indicates sum where there are the same number of assessments across years.
]
]

???
Methods from <a name=cite-perretti_regime_2017></a>([Perretti, et al., 2017](http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/)).

---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure and habitat: new diet based forage fish index, new diversity trends

.pull-left[
Mid Atlantic forage index
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-left[
Habitat model-based species richness by EPU
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Implications: forage, including species not well sampled by bottom trawls, has been fluctuating over time. Richness calculated for the most common species suggests shifts away from the Mid Atlantic towards Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine.

---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure All regions

Indicators: distribution shifts, diversity (previous sections) predator status and trends here
.pull-left[
*No trend in aggregate sharks*
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

*  No obvious increase in shark populations
*  Most highly migratory fish predators are not depleted: 
    - 10 above B target
    - 7 above B limit but below B target
    - 2 below B limit
]

.pull-right[
*HMS populations mainly at or above target*
<img src="20231114_SOE_NYsharks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 71 contributors from 20+ institutions

.table[
![:col_row 
 Kimberly Bastille 
 Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
 Andy Beet 
 Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
 Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut) 
 Joseph Caracappa 
 Doug Christel (GARFO) 
 Patricia Clay 
 Lisa Colburn 
 Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Art Degaetano (Cornell U) 
 Geret DePiper 
 Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
 Hubert du Pontavice 
 Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Michael Fogarty 
 Paula Fratantoni 
 Kevin Friedland 
 Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Sarah Gaichas 
 Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
 Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth) 
 James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science),
 
 Lori Garzio (Rutgers University) 
 Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Sean Hardison 
 Kimberly Hyde 
 John Kosik 
 Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Scott Large 
 Gabe Larouche (Cornell U) 
 Daniel Linden 
 Andrew Lipsky 
 Sean Lucey 
 Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Chris Melrose 
 Shannon Meseck 
 Ryan Morse 
 Ray Mroch (SEFSC) 
 Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
 Kimberly Murray 
 Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) 
 Chris Orphanides 
 Richard Pace 
 Debi Palka 
 Tom Parham (Maryland DNR),
 
 Charles Perretti 
 CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Kristin Precoda 
 Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
 Vincent Saba 
 Sarah Salois 
 Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
 Amy Schueller (SEFSC) 
 Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University) 
 Dave Secor (CBL) 
 Angela Silva 
 Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
 Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
 Laurel Smith 
 Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
 Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
 John Walden 
 Harvey Walsh 
 Changhua Weng 
 Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM) 
 Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources) 
 Mark Wuenschel ]
]

???

---
## References

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2021></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2021) (2021). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 72-89. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

<a name=bib-depiper_learning_2021></a>[DePiper, G. et
al.](#cite-depiper_learning_2021) (2021). "Learning by doing:
collaborative conceptual modelling as a path forward in ecosystem-based
management". In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_. ISSN: 1054-3139.
DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsab054).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054)
(visited on Apr. 15, 2021).

<a name=bib-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et
al.](#cite-gaichas_implementing_2018) (2018). "Implementing Ecosystem
Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US
Mid-Atlantic". In: _Frontiers in Marine Science_ 5. ISSN: 2296-7745.
DOI:
[10.3389/fmars.2018.00442](https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffmars.2018.00442).
URL:
[https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract)
(visited on Nov. 20, 2018).

<a name=bib-muffley_there_2021></a>[Muffley, B. et
al.](#cite-muffley_there_2021) (2021). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management".
In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 90-106. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

<a name=bib-perretti_regime_2017></a>[Perretti, C. et
al.](#cite-perretti_regime_2017) (2017). "Regime shifts in fish
recruitment on the Northeast US Continental Shelf". En. In: _Marine
Ecology Progress Series_ 574, pp. 1-11. ISSN: 0171-8630, 1616-1599.
DOI: [10.3354/meps12183](https://doi.org/10.3354%2Fmeps12183). URL:
[http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/](http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/)
(visited on Feb. 10, 2022).
]

## Additional resources
.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* [Draft indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

]
.pull-right[
* [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov>
]
]