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State of the Ecosystem 2023 Overview
Mid-Atlantic and New England

Right Whale Implementation Team
27 July 2023

Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Bastille, Sean Lucey, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Laurel Smith
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
and all SOE contributors

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Goal: include climate and ecosystem information in management decision processes

Overview

  • What types of decisions are made?

    • Single species catch limits
    • Allocations to fleets or areas
    • Coordination across boundaries and sectors
    • Multispecies and ecosystem level tradeoffs

  • How can ecosystem information support these decisions?

    • Key tools: ecosystem reporting, risk assessment, scenario planning, managment strategy evaluation
    • Developing decision processes along with products

Word cloud based on Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council EAFM Guidance Document

EAFM Policy Guidance Doc Word Cloud

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Background: Federal fishery management in the US

Eight regional Fishery Management Councils establish plans for sustainable management of stocks within their jurisdictions. All are governed by the same law, but tailor management to their regional stakeholder needs.

US map highlighting regions for each fishery management council

More information: http://www.fisherycouncils.org/
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/topic/laws-policies#magnuson-stevens-act

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2022 structure for 2023

2023 Report Structure

  1. Graphical summary
    • Page 1 report card re: objectives →
    • Page 2 risk summary bullets
    • Page 3 synthesis themes
  2. Performance relative to management objectives
  3. Risks to meeting management objectives

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary tableState of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets

Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives
Objective Categories Indicators reported
Provisioning and Cultural Services
Seafood Production Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem)
Social & Cultural Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status
Protected Species Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities
Supporting and Regulating Services
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
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Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

  • Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways.
  • Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to regime shifts — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.
  • Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

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State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

A glossary of terms, detailed technical methods documentation and indicator data are available online.

Key to figures

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or < 30 years

Grey background = last 10 years

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Report structure revised in 2021 to address Council requests and improve synthesis

  • Performance relative to management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Objectives
    • Seafood production
    • Profits
    • Recreational opportunities
    • Stability
    • Social and cultural
    • Protected species
  • Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Risk categories
    • Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification
      • Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis)
      • Productivity changes (system and fish)
      • Species interaction changes
      • Community structure changes
    • Other ocean uses
      • Offshore wind development
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Performance relative to management objectives - Mid-Atlantic

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort increasing arrow icon above average icon icon; Effort diversity decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Stability: Fishery no trend icon near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations (NARW) decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank

Seafood production no trend icon, below average icon icon

Profits no trend icon, above average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort no trend icon, near average icon icon; Effort diversity no trend icon, near average icon icon

Stability: Fishery mixed trend icon, Commercial below average icon icon Rec near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations mixed trend icon, NARW below average icon icon Gray seal above average icon icon
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits Total no trend icon, above average icon icon; NEFMC Managed decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort no trend icon, near average icon icon; Effort diversity no trend icon, near average icon icon

Stability: Fishery mixed trend icon, Commercial below average icon icon Rec near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations mixed trend icon, NARW below average icon icon Gray seal above average icon icon
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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - All regions

Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue

  • 2022 among warmest years on record
  • Heat waves and Gulf Stream instability
  • Mid-Atlantic cold pool becoming warmer, smaller, and shorter in duration
  • Estuarine, coastal, and offshore habitats affected, with range of species responses
  • Distribution shifts complicate management
  • Gulf of Maine fall bloom highest in time series
  • Fish stocks with a mix of good and poor condition
  • Multiple Mid-Atlantic stocks with declining productivity

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State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives - All regions

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development

  • Rapid buildout in patchwork of areas
  • Current revenue in proposed areas
    • 1-31% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    • Up to 17% annual commercial revenue
  • Different development impacts for species preferring soft bottom vs. hard bottom
  • Overlap with known important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
  • Scientific survey mitigation in progress
  • Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is beginning for offshore wind and fisheries in the Gulf of Maine
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2023 Performance relative to management objectives

Fishing icon made by EDAB       Fishing industry icon made by EDAB       Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB       Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB       Protected species icon made by EDAB

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Objectives: All Areas Protected species Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon

Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch

Implications:

  • Currently meeting objectives, but recent bycatch uncertain.

  • Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged

  • The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

  • The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).

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Objectives: All Areas Protected species Recover endangered populations decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

Implications:

  • Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

  • Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

  • Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species.

  • Risk elements:

    • FW2Prey evaluated by species: 13 low, 3 low-mod risk, unchanged
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2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate icon made by EDAB       Wind icon made by EDAB

Hydrography icon made by EDAB       Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB       Forage fish icon made by EDAB       Apex predators icon made by EDAB       Other human uses icon made by EDAB

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Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic (a.k.a. indicator shock-and-awe)

Indicators: ocean currents, temperature, seasons

The Gulf Stream is trending north. Ocean summer is lasting longer. In contrast to SST, long term bottom temperature is increasing in all seasons. Few surface and no bottom extreme warming events in 2022.

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Seasonal sea surface temperatures in 2022 were above average for most of the year, however late spring storms caused deep mixing, which delayed stratification and surface warming in late spring and early summer. A combination of long-term ocean warming and extreme events should be used to assess total heat stress on marine organisms

Climate risks: offshore habitat

Region
Indicator
Long term trend
Current status
Coastwide


Mid-Atlantic







Georges Bank




Gulf of Maine




Gulf stream index
Warm core rings

Sea surface temperature
Sea bottom temperature
Summer length
Extreme temperature events
Cold pool temperature
Cold pool duration
Cold pool extent

Sea surface temperature
Sea bottom temperature
Summer length
Extreme temperature events

Sea surface temperature
Sea bottom temperature
Summer length
Extreme temperature events
Warm slope water NE channel

Moving north
More numerous

Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
No trend
Increasing
Decreasing
Decreasing

Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
No trend

Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
No trend
Increasing

+
high regime

+
+
+
2 of 9-11 days
+
−
−

+
+
+
1 of 28 days

+
+
+
4 of 5 to 8 days
+

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Needs: skillful short term projections (2-5 years) of multiple habitat variables at regional scale

Implications: Climate change and managed species   Risk based on climate vulnerability:

Climate: 18 low, 10 low-mod, 9 mod-high, 3 high risk

Multiple drivers with different impacts by species

  • Seasonal estuarine conditions affect life stages of managed species differently

  • Ocean acidification impact on commercial species
    Mid Seasonal pH

  • Warm core rings important to Illex availability.

DistShift: 2 low, 4 low-mod, 31 mod-high, 3 high risk

New Indicator: protected species shifts

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  • Chesapeake suitable habitat for juvenile summer flounder growth has declined by 50% or more
  • Climate change is expected to continue impacting habitat function and use for multiple species
  • Habitat improving in some areas (tidal fresh SAV, oyster reefs), but eelgrass declining
  • Scallops and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and off New Jersey have experienced low aragonite
  • Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat
  • Lab work identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth
  • Fishing effort concentrates on the eastern edge of warm core rings, where upwelling and enhanced productivity ocurr.
  • Fuel cost, plentiful longfin, and fewer warm core rings near the shelf led to lower Illex catch in 2022.

Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.

Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic; Element: EcoProd

Indicator: Fish condition

Indicator: Fish productivity anomaly →

Implications: Species in the MAB had mixed condition in 2022. Fish productivity based on surveys and assessments has been below average.

Black line indicates sum where there are the same number of assessments across years.

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Methods from (Perretti, et al., 2017).

Risks: Ecosystem structure New England

Indicator: Forage fish index

Indicator: Common tern productivity

Indicator: Gray seal pup production

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Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic   Element: OceanUse

Indicators: development timeline, fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species?

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Risks: Offshore Wind Development Summary

Implications:

  • 1-34% of port revenue from fisheries currently comes from areas proposed for offshore wind development. Some communities have environmental justice concerns and gentrification vulnerability.
  • Up to 17% of annual commercial landings and revenue for Mid-Atlantic species occur in lease areas.
  • Development will affect species differently, negatively affecting species that prefer soft bottom habitat while potentially benefiting species that prefer hard structured habitat.
  • Planned wind areas overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise.
24 / 30

Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region Evaluating the impacts to scientific surveys has begun.

Priority requests from managers

  • Highest priority requests in progress
    • System level thresholds and reference points
    • Trend analysis, inflections and break points
    • Regime shifts
  • Identified some gaps
    • Short term forecasts
    • Management complexity
    • Recreational bycatch
  • Stock level indicators best addressed in assessment?

bluefish ESP conceptual model

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The Bluefish Research Track ESP was presented December 7 2022, and was well received by CIE reviewers. Reviewers commented that it was the most complete treatment of a stock assessment "ecosystem ToR" they had seen, and formed a good basis for integrating further ecosystem information into the stock assessment in the future. The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the stock assessment data portal.

In addition to the conceptual model, a summary table was developed for bluefish ecosystem indicators. This type of summary could contribute to OFL CV decisions with further information on how these indicator levels affect uncertainty in assessment.

Including ecosystem information for fish stocks: Alaska Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model
 

Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

Pacific cod example from Alaska: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/2021-alaska-fisheries-science-center-year-review and https://apps-afsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/refm/docs/2021/GOApcod.pdf

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Our ESP process was developed from the AFSC process, but we adjusted things slightly because of how our benchmarks are scheduled and because we are providing scientific advice to multiple Councils.

The ESP framework is an iterative cycle that complements the stock assessment cycle. First I will give you an overview of the ESP cycle, and then I will explain each step in more detail. The ESP begins with the development of the problem statement by identifying the topics that the assessment working group and ESP team want to assess. This process includes a literature review or other method of gathering existing information on the stock, such as reviewing prior assessments and research recommendations. Next, a conceptual model is created that links important processes and pressures to stock performance. From these linkages, we develop indicators that can be used to monitor the system conditions. Next, the indicators are analyzed to determine their status and the likely impacts on the stock. Some indicators may be tested for inclusion in assessment models. Finally, all of these analyses are synthesized into a report card to provide general recommendations for fishery management.

Northeast US Bluefish Pomatomus saltatrix ESP, reviewed December 2022

Bluefish ESP conceptual model Figure and table by Abigail Tyrell

The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the stock assessment data portal

Would this approach be useful for Right Whale ecosystem context?

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The Bluefish Research Track ESP was presented December 7 2022, and was well received by CIE reviewers. Reviewers commented that it was the most complete treatment of a stock assessment "ecosystem ToR" they had seen, and formed a good basis for integrating further ecosystem information into the stock assessment in the future. The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the stock assessment data portal.

In addition to the conceptual model, a summary table was developed for bluefish ecosystem indicators. This type of summary could contribute to OFL CV decisions with further information on how these indicator levels affect uncertainty in assessment.

THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 71 contributors from 20+ institutions

Kimberly Bastille
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA)
Andy Beet
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut)
Joseph Caracappa
Doug Christel (GARFO)
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Art Degaetano (Cornell U)
Geret DePiper
Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS)
Hubert du Pontavice
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Sarah Gaichas
Ben Galuardi (GARFO)
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Lori Garzio (Rutgers University)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
John Kosik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Scott Large
Gabe Larouche (Cornell U)
Daniel Linden
Andrew Lipsky
Sean Lucey
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Chris Melrose
Shannon Meseck
Ryan Morse
Ray Mroch (SEFSC)
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)
Kimberly Murray
Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Debi Palka
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR)
Charles Perretti
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Kristin Precoda
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Grace Saba (Rutgers)
Vincent Saba
Sarah Salois
Chris Schillaci (GARFO)
Amy Schueller (SEFSC)
Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University)
Dave Secor (CBL)
Angela Silva
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST)
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)
Laurel Smith
Talya tenBrink (GARFO)
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Changhua Weng
Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM)
Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources)
Mark Wuenschel
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Additional resources

References

Bastille, K. et al. (2021). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: Coastal Management 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 72-89. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155 (visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

DePiper, G. S. et al. (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsx038. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701 (visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

DePiper, G. et al. (2021). "Learning by doing: collaborative conceptual modelling as a path forward in ecosystem-based management". In: ICES Journal of Marine Science. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsab054. URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054 (visited on Apr. 15, 2021).

Gaichas, S. K. et al. (2018). "Implementing Ecosystem Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US Mid-Atlantic". In: Frontiers in Marine Science 5. ISSN: 2296-7745. DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2018.00442. URL: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract (visited on Nov. 20, 2018).

Muffley, B. et al. (2021). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management". In: Coastal Management 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 90-106. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156 (visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

Perretti, C. et al. (2017). "Regime shifts in fish recruitment on the Northeast US Continental Shelf". En. In: Marine Ecology Progress Series 574, pp. 1-11. ISSN: 0171-8630, 1616-1599. DOI: 10.3354/meps12183. URL: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/ (visited on Feb. 10, 2022).

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Thank you!

Questions?

30 / 30

Goal: include climate and ecosystem information in management decision processes

Overview

  • What types of decisions are made?

    • Single species catch limits
    • Allocations to fleets or areas
    • Coordination across boundaries and sectors
    • Multispecies and ecosystem level tradeoffs

  • How can ecosystem information support these decisions?

    • Key tools: ecosystem reporting, risk assessment, scenario planning, managment strategy evaluation
    • Developing decision processes along with products

Word cloud based on Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council EAFM Guidance Document

EAFM Policy Guidance Doc Word Cloud

2 / 30
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