State of the Ecosystem New England 2023

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# State of the Ecosystem New England 2023
]
.subtitle[
## NEFMC 19 April 2023
]
.author[
### Sean Lucey, Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Bastille, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Laurel Smith Northeast Fisheries Science Center and all SOE contributors
]

---

class: top, left

# State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

.pull-left[

- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
 + Contextual information
 + Report evolving since 2016
 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2020></a>([Bastille et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

- Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2020></a>([Muffley et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
 
]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop1*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//iea-loop.png)

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]
???

---
## State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2022 structure for 2023
.pull-left[

## 2023 Report Structure
1. Graphical summary
    + Page 1 - 2 report card re: objectives &rarr;
    + Page 3 risk summary bullets
    + Page 4 synthesis themes
1. Performance relative to management objectives
1. Risks to meeting management objectives

![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 50%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_3.png)![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets, 50%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_4.png)

]

.pull-right[

<table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Example ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Provisioning and Cultural Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Supporting and Regulating Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

## Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

* Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. 
* Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.  
* Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

.pull-left[

![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SystemDrivers_v5.jpg)
]

.pull-right[
![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg)
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html) (2021 Memo 5), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online.  
]

.pull-right[
Key to figures
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="396" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

---
## Report structure revised in 2021 to address Council requests and improve synthesis

.pull-left[
* Performance relative to management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Objectives
    - Seafood production
    - Profits
    - Recreational opportunities
    - Stability
    - Social and cultural
    - Protected species
]

.pull-right[
* Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Risk categories
    - Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification
        - Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis)
        - Productivity changes (system and fish)
        - Species interaction changes
        - Community structure changes
    - Other ocean uses
        - Offshore wind development
]

---
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## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Performance relative to management objectives - Georges Bank**

.pull-left-60[
Seafood production ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png)

Recreational opportunities:  Effort ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Stability: Fishery ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), Commercial ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species: 
*  Maintain bycatch below thresholds ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)  
*  Recover endangered populations ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png), NARW ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Gray seal ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png)  
]
.pull-right-40[]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_3.png")
background-size: 500px
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## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Performance relative to management objectives - Gulf of Maine**

.pull-left-60[
Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits Total ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png), ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); NEFMC Managed ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_4.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Risks to meeting fishery management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue
*  2022 among warmest years on record
*  Gulf Stream instability
*  Mid-Atlantic cold pool becoming warmer, smaller, and shorter in duration
*  Gulf of Maine fall bloom highest in time series
*  Mixed fish condition 
*  Distribution shifts complicate management
]
.pull-right-40[]

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background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SOE-NE-final-03.27.23-508_Page_4.png")
background-size: 500px
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## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Risks to meeting fishery management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Other ocean uses: offshore wind development
*  Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is beginning for offshore wind and fisheries in the Gulf of Maine
*  Current revenue in proposed areas
    - 1-31% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    - Up to 12% annual commercial revenue by NEFMC-managed species
*  Overlap with known important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks 
*  Scientific survey mitigation in progress
]
.pull-right-40[]

---

# 2023 Performance relative to management objectives

.center[
![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//5_FISHING.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//6_INDUSTRY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//18.MULTIPLE_SYSTEM_DRIVERS.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//22.SPIRITUAL_CULTURAL.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Protected species icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//16.PROTECTEDSPECIES.png)
]

---

## Objective: New England Seafood production 
## GB ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) GOM ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

Indicators: Commercial landings

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="864" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Key: Black = Landings of all species; Blue = Seafood landings; Red = NEFMC managed seafood landings
]

---

.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational harvest

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[

]

Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change

???
Although scallop decreases are partially explained by a decreased TAC, analyses suggest that the drop in landings is at least partially due to market disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, we do not anticipate the long-term declining trend in landings to change.

---
## New England Landings drivers: Stock status

Indicator: Stock status

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" width="720" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Stocks below BMSY increased from 8 to 9, stocks below ½ BMSY decreased from 6 to 4. Spiny dogfish results from RT are unofficial. Management still likely playing large role in seafood declines
]

---
## New England Landings drivers

.pull-left[
Indicator: Survey biomass

]

.pull-right[

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="576" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Biomass availability still seems unlikely driver

---

## Implications: New England Seafood Production
.pull-left[
Drivers:
* decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by the requirement to rebuild individual stocks as well as market dynamics
* other drivers affecting recreational landings: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor: 
* climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions  
* ecosystem composition and production changes  
* fishing engagement

]

.pull-right[

]

---

## Objective: New England Commercial Profits ![:img mixed trends arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png)
## GB ![:img above average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png) GOM Total ![:img above average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png), NEFMC-managed ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

Indicator: Commercial Revenue
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="792" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of NEFMC managed species
]

---

.pull-left[
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices

]

.pull-right[
Implications:

Both regions driven by single species
* GOM high revenue despite low volume
* Fluctuations in GB due to rotational management

Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:
* Sea scallops and lobsters are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification

]

---

## Objective: New England Recreational opportunities ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Absence of a long-term trend in recreational effort suggests relative stability in the overall number of recreational opportunities in New England

]

---

## Objective: New England Fishery Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) Com ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png); Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/near-long-term-average.png)

.pull-left[
*Fishery*  Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

]

.pull-right[
*Fishery* Indicators: Commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity

]

---

## Objective: New England Ecological Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

.pull-left[
*Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity

]

.pull-right[
*Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Implications:  
* Commercial fishery diversity driven by small number of species
* Diminished capacity to respond to future fishing opportunities
* Recreational diversity due to species distributions and regulations
* Adult diversity in GOM suggests increase in warm-water species

???
* Overall stability in the fisheries and ecosystem components
* Increasing diversity in several indicators warrants continued monitoring

---

## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance

.pull-left[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
New England commercial fishing communities
]

.pull-right[

]

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

???
These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

---
## Objectives: Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Currently meeting objectives

* The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

* The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).
]

---
## Objectives: Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-27-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-28-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---

## Objectives: Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicator: Gray seal pups
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

* Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

* Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species and 1 seal.

]

---

# 2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

.center[
![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//3_CLIMATE.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Wind icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//24.WIND.png)
]

.center[
![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//13_FORAGEFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Apex predators icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//17.APEXPREDATORS.png)  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png) 
]

---

background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/seasonal-sst-anomaly-gridded-NE2022.png")
background-size: 600px
background-position: right

## Risks: Climate change

.pull-left[
Indicators: bottom and surface temperature

]

---

## Risks: Climate change
.pull-left[
Indicators: Extreme temperature events (*detrended* marine heatwaves)
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-32-1.png" width="360" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-33-1.png" width="360" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-34-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

A combination of long-term ocean warming and extreme events should be used to assess total heat stress on marine organisms.

---

## Risks: Climate change
.pull-left[
Indicators: ocean currents
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="432" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull.right[

<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-37-1.png" width="432" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Implications: The Gulf Stream is trending north.  This is associated with warmer ocean temperatures on the NE Shelf, higher proportion of Warm Slope Water in the Northeast Channel, and increased sea surface height.

---

## Risks: Climate change and offshore habitat 
.pull-left[
Indicator: cold pool indices
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-38-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: Ocean acidification
![:img NE Seasonal pH](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/Saba_Fig_SOE_NEFMC.jpg)

]

.pull-right[

Indicator: warm core rings
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

2022 had the same number of warm core rings as 2021, but fewer near the continental shelf in 2022.  Warm core ring near GB likely contributed to the marine heatwave and warm fall SST.

Summer aragonite saturation low for both Atlantic cods and American lobster in the Gulf of Maine.

]
???

---

## Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Indicators: chlorophyll, primary production

.pull-left[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-40-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure

Indicators: Phytoplankton, zooplankton

.pull-left[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-42-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-43-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Implications: increased production by smaller phytoplankton implies less efficient transfer of primary production to higher trophic levels. Monitor implications of increasing gelatinous zooplankton and krill.
  
???
Below average phytoplankton biomass could be due to reduced nutrient flow to the surface and/or increased grazing pressure. A short fall bloom was detected in November. Primary productivity (the rate of photosynthesis) was average to below average throughout 2021

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Indicator: fish condition

.pull-left[
Georges Bank
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-44-1.png" width="120%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Gulf of Maine
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-45-1.png" width="120%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

Implications: Many species in New England showed improved condition in 2021-2022. Preliminary results of synthetic analyses show that changes in temperature, zooplankton, fishing pressure, and population size influence the condition of different fish species.

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Indicator: fish productivity anomaly

.pull-left[
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/productivity-anomaly-gb-1.png" alt="Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly on Georges Bank. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line." width="504" />
Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly on Georges Bank. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line.
</div>
]

.pull-right[
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/productivity-anomaly-gom-1.png" alt="Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly in the Gulf of Maine. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line." width="504" />
Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly in the Gulf of Maine. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line.
</div>
]

Survey based fish productivity shows no clear trend in New England.

---

## Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Implications: fluctuating environmental conditions and prey for forage species affect both abundance and energy content. Energy content varies by season, and has changed over time most dramatically for Atlantic herring

---

## Risks: Ecosystem structure and habitat

.pull-left[
Indicator: Forage index
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-47-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-left[
Indicator: Habitat model-based species richness by EPU
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-48-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Implications: forage, including species not well sampled by bottom trawls, has been fluctuating over time. Richness calculated for the most common species suggests shifts away from the Mid Atlantic towards Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine.

---

## Risks: Ecosystem structure

Indicator: Common tern productivity

Common tern productivity decline reflecting prey, confounded by cold, wet wether in mid-to-late July when fledging occurs

---

## Risks: Ecosystem structure

Indicators: distribution shifts, diversity (previous sections) predator status and trends here
.pull-left[
*No trend in aggregate sharks*
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-50-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

*  No obvious increase in shark populations
*  Most highly migratory fish predators are not depleted: 
    - 10 above B target
    - 7 above B limit but below B target
    - 2 below B limit
]

.pull-right[
*HMS populations mainly at or above target*
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-51-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure

Indicators: predators

.pull-left[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-52-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
*Gray seals increasing*
* Breeding season ~ 27,000 US gray seals, Canada's population ~ 425,000 (2016) 
* Canada's population increasing at ~ 4% per year
* U.S. pupping sites increased from 1 (1988) to 9 (2019)
* Harbor and gray seals are generalist predators that consume more than 30 different prey species: red, white and silver hake, sand lance, yellowtail flounder, four-spotted flounder, Gulf-stream flounder, haddock, herring, redfish, and squids.

Implications: stable predator populations suggest stable predation pressure on managed species, but increasing predator populations may reflect increasing predation pressure.
]

---

## Implications: Climate change and ecosystem structure

.pull-left[
*New Indicator: protected species shifts*
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-53-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.  
]
]

.pull-right[
* Multiple drivers impact species differently

* Seasonal estuarine conditions affect life stages of many federally-managed species

* Climate change my shrink or fragment available habitat

* Extreme temperature events happen intermittently, do not appear to be increasing in frequency, still contribute to overall thermal stress to organisms

* Changes to cold pool affect species distribution, recruitment, and migration timing
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/Cumulative_Timeline_Full_Region_SoE2023_v2-01.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development

.pull-left[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-54-1.png" width="360" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

31 offshore wind development projects are proposed
* 2.3 million acres by 2030
* 3,400 foundations
* 9,000 miles of inter-array and offshore export cables
* Additional lease areas in the GOM expected in late 2023

]

---

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development

.pull-left[
Indicators: fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: which Mid-Atlantic ports have significant reliance on New England managed species?

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20230419_NEFMC_Lucey_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-56-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/SOE_2023_right_whales_hatteras_frame_v3.jpg")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Summary

.pull-left[
Implications:
*  1 - 31% of port revenue from fisheries currently comes from areas proposed for offshore wind development. Some communities have environmental justice concerns and gentrification vulnerability.
*  Up to 12% of annual commercial revenue for New England species occur in lease areas.
*  Development will affect species differently, negatively affecting species that prefer soft bottom habitat while potentially benefiting species that prefer hard structured habitat.
*  Planned wind areas overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise.
]
.pull-right[]

???
Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region 
Evaluating the impacts to scientific surveys has begun.

---

background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/2023RespMemoBody_Page_1.png")
background-size: 520px
background-position: right

## Updates to the SOE request tracking memo

.pull-left-60[
Now organized by priority and category

*  Priority from MAFMC SSC eco WG and Council
*  Categories from SOE team
*  Highest priority requests in progress
    -  System level thresholds and reference points
    -  Trend analysis, inflections and break points
    -  Regime shifts
*  Identified some gaps
    - Short term forecasts
    - Management complexity
    - Recreational bycatch
*  Stock level indicators best addressed in research tracks?
*  SOE use statistics and memo updates in progress
*  Lowest priority requests likely to be dropped

]

.pull-right-40[
]

---

background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 71 contributors from 20+ institutions

.table[
![:col_row 
 Kimberly Bastille 
 Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
 Andy Beet 
 Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
 Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut) 
 Joseph Caracappa 
 Doug Christel (GARFO) 
 Patricia Clay 
 Lisa Colburn 
 Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Art Degaetano (Cornell U) 
 Geret DePiper 
 Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
 Hubert du Pontavice 
 Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Michael Fogarty 
 Paula Fratantoni 
 Kevin Friedland 
 Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Sarah Gaichas 
 Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
 Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth) 
 James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science),
 
 Lori Garzio (Rutgers University) 
 Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Sean Hardison 
 Kimberly Hyde 
 John Kosik 
 Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Scott Large 
 Gabe Larouche (Cornell U) 
 Daniel Linden 
 Andrew Lipsky 
 Sean Lucey 
 Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Chris Melrose 
 Shannon Meseck 
 Ryan Morse 
 Ray Mroch (SEFSC) 
 Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
 Kimberly Murray 
 Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) 
 Chris Orphanides 
 Richard Pace 
 Debi Palka 
 Tom Parham (Maryland DNR),
 
 Charles Perretti 
 CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Kristin Precoda 
 Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
 Vincent Saba 
 Sarah Salois 
 Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
 Amy Schueller (SEFSC) 
 Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University) 
 Dave Secor (CBL) 
 Angela Silva 
 Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
 Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
 Laurel Smith 
 Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
 Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
 John Walden 
 Harvey Walsh 
 Changhua Weng 
 Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM) 
 Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources) 
 Mark Wuenschel ]
]

???

---

## References

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2020></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2020) (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

<a name=bib-muffley_there_2020></a>[Muffley, B. et
al.](#cite-muffley_there_2020) (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management".
In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)
(visited on Dec. 09, 2020).
]

## Additional resources
.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* Visualizations:
  * [Mid-Atlantic Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_MAB)
  * [New England Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_NE)
  * [New England Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_NE)
  * [New England Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_NE)

]
.pull-right[
* [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [Draft indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sean.Lucey@noaa.gov>
]
]