+ - 0:00:00
Notes for current slide
Notes for next slide

State of the Ecosystem
Mid-Atlantic 2023

MAFMC
5 April 2023

Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Bastille, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
Brandon Muffley, MAFMC
and all SOE contributors

1 / 43

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley, et al., 2020)

    • Risk assessment methods update in 2023

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

2 / 43

State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2022 structure for 2023

2023 Report Structure

  1. Graphical summary
    • Page 1 report card re: objectives →
    • Page 2 risk summary bullets
    • Page 3 synthesis themes
  2. Performance relative to management objectives
  3. Risks to meeting management objectives

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary tableState of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets

Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives
Objective Categories Indicators reported
Provisioning and Cultural Services
Seafood Production Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem)
Social & Cultural Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status
Protected Species Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities
Supporting and Regulating Services
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
3 / 43

Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

  • Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways.
  • Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to regime shifts — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.
  • Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

4 / 43

State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

A glossary of terms, detailed technical methods documentation and indicator data are available online.

Key to figures

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or < 30 years

Grey background = last 10 years

5 / 43

Report structure revised in 2021 to address Council requests and improve synthesis

  • Performance relative to management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Objectives
    • Seafood production
    • Profits
    • Recreational opportunities
    • Stability
    • Social and cultural
    • Protected species
  • Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Risk categories
    • Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification
      • Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis)
      • Productivity changes (system and fish)
      • Species interaction changes
      • Community structure changes
    • Other ocean uses
      • Offshore wind development
6 / 43

State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Performance relative to management objectives

Seafood production decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Profits decreasing arrow icon, below average icon icon

Recreational opportunities: Effort increasing arrow icon above average icon icon; Effort diversity decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Stability: Fishery no trend icon near average icon icon; Ecological mixed trend icon near average icon icon

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:

  • Fishing engagement and reliance by community
  • Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species:

  • Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon
  • Recover endangered populations (NARW) decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon
7 / 43

State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:

Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue

  • Heat waves and Gulf Stream instability
  • Estuarine, coastal, and offshore habitats affected, with range of species responses
  • Distribution shifts complicate management
  • Multiple fish with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development

  • Current revenue in proposed areas
    • 1-34% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    • up to 17% by managed species
  • Different development impacts for species preferring soft bottom vs. hard bottom
  • Overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
  • Rapid buildout in patchwork of areas
  • Scientific survey mitigation required
8 / 43

2023 Performance relative to management objectives

Fishing icon made by EDAB       Fishing industry icon made by EDAB       Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB       Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB       Protected species icon made by EDAB

9 / 43

Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon   Risk elements: ComFood and RecFood, unchanged

Indicators: Commercial landings, total and seafood

Key: Black = Landings of all species;

Blue = Seafood landings;

Red = MAFMC managed seafood landings

Total landings now include Atlantic menhaden

Indicators: Recreational harvest

Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change.

10 / 43

The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change.

Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC?   Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl

Indicator: Stock status

Most stocks have good status. Butterfish B status has improved. Results from Dec 2022 Research Track assessments shown for Spiny dogfish (F above threshold) and bluefish (B above limit) do not represent official management advice.

Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target

Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role

11 / 43

Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC.

Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species.

Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production

Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends

Key: Black = NEFSC survey;

Red = NEAMAP survey

  • Declining seafood mainly benthos: surfclam/ocean quahog market drivers

  • Declining total mainly planktivores: menhaden fishery consolidation
  • Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions; ecosystem composition and production changes; fishing engagement

12 / 43

Stock status is above the minimum threshold for all but one stock, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, so the decline in commercial seafood landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as landings have been below quotas for these species. The long term decline in total planktivore landings is largely driven by Atlantic menhaden fishery dynamics, including a consolidation of processors leading to reduced fishing capacity between the 1990s and mid-2000s.

Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon   Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

Indicator: Commercial Revenue (proxy)

Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined;

Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species

Implications: Recent change driven by benthos
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:

  • Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification.
  • pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth

Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices

13 / 43

Recent declines in prices contributed to falling revenue as quantities landed did not increase enough to counteract declining prices.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities no trend icon near average icon icon; decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon Risk element: RecValue, decreased risk

Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity

Implications

  • Increased angler trips in 2020 relative to previous years strongly influenced the previously reported long term increase in recreational effort. Adding 2021 data, recreational effort (angler trips) has no long term trend.

  • The increasing long term trend from 2021 changed the risk categories for the RecValue element to low-moderate (previously ranked high risk). No trend indicates low risk.

  • Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities. This metric could be added to the risk assessment.

  • Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.
14 / 43

Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability no trend icon near average icon icon   Risk elements: FishRes1 and FleetDiv, unchanged

Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

Most recent commercial fleet counts at low range of series

Fishery Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity

Most recent commercial species revenue diversity near series low value

Recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time

15 / 43

Objective: Mid Atlantic Ecological Stability mixed trend icon near average icon icon   Risk element: include ecological diversity?

Ecological Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity

Ecological Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey

Implications:

  • stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities
  • recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time
  • monitor zooplankton diversity as community composition changes
16 / 43

While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: Social

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance

Mid-Atlantic commercial fishing communities

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

17 / 43

These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability   Risk element: Social

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance

Mid-Atlantic recreational fishing communities

Implications: There was an increase in recreational fishing activities in the many of the top recreational communities from 2019 to 2020.

18 / 43

Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

Objectives: All Areas Protected species Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon

Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch

Implications:

  • Currently meeting objectives, but recent bycatch uncertain.

  • Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged

  • The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

  • The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).

19 / 43

Objectives: All Areas Protected species Recover endangered populations decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon

Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

Implications:

  • Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

  • Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

  • Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species.

  • Risk elements:

    • FW2Prey evaluated by species: 13 low, 3 low-mod risk, unchanged
20 / 43

2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate icon made by EDAB       Wind icon made by EDAB

Hydrography icon made by EDAB       Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB       Forage fish icon made by EDAB       Apex predators icon made by EDAB       Other human uses icon made by EDAB

21 / 43

Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic

Indicators: ocean currents, temperature, seasons

The Gulf Stream is trending north. Ocean summer is lasting longer. In contrast to SST, long term bottom temperature is increasing in all seasons. Few surface and no bottom extreme warming events in 2022.

22 / 43

Seasonal sea surface temperatures in 2022 were above average for most of the year, however late spring storms caused deep mixing, which delayed stratification and surface warming in late spring and early summer. A combination of long-term ocean warming and extreme events should be used to assess total heat stress on marine organisms

Risks: Climate change and estuarine habitat   Element: EstHabitat; 11 species low, 4 high risk

Indicators: Chesapeake Bay temperature and salinity

Indicator: SAV trends in Chesapeake Bay

Indicator: Water quality attainment (not updated)

23 / 43

Risks: Climate change and offshore habitat

Indicator: cold pool indices

Indicator: Mid Atlantic Ocean acidification Mid Seasonal pH

Indicator: warm core rings

Summer aragonite saturation low for both Atlantic sea scallop and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and the nearshore and mid-shelf regions of the New Jersey shelf several times over the past decade.

There were fewer warm core rings near the continental shelf in 2022, which combined with economic fishery drivers may have contributed to total catch of Illex squid being less than 20% of the total catch reported in 2021.

24 / 43

Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic   Element: EcoProd

Indicators: chlorophyll, primary production, zooplankton

Increased production by smaller phytoplankton implies less efficient transfer of primary production to higher trophic levels. Pteropods are important prey items for planktivores such as herring and mackerel, as well as some sea birds. Pseudocalanus spp. are important prey for many larval fish species, and can influence phytoplankton standing stock through grazing.

25 / 43

Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic; Element: EcoProd

Indicator: fish condition

Indicator: fish productivity anomaly →

Implications: Species in the MAB had mixed condition in 2022. Fish productivity based on surveys and assessments has been below average.

Black line indicates sum where there are the same number of assessments across years.

26 / 43

Methods from (Perretti, et al., 2017).

Risks: Ecosystem productivity All regions

Fluctuating environmental conditions and prey for forage species affect both abundance and energy content. Energy content varies by season, and has changed over time most dramatically for Atlantic herring.

27 / 43

Mid Atlantic forage index

Habitat model-based species richness by EPU

Implications: forage, including species not well sampled by bottom trawls, has been fluctuating over time. Richness calculated for the most common species suggests shifts away from the Mid Atlantic towards Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine.

28 / 43

Risks: Ecosystem structure All regions

Indicators: distribution shifts, diversity (previous sections) predator status and trends here

No trend in aggregate sharks

  • No obvious increase in shark populations
  • Most highly migratory fish predators are not depleted:
    • 10 above B target
    • 7 above B limit but below B target
    • 2 below B limit

HMS populations mainly at or above target

29 / 43

Implications: Climate change and managed species   Risk elements unchanged, new info:

Climate: 6 low, 3 low-mod, 4 mod-high, 1 high risk

Multiple drivers with different impacts by species

  • Seasonal estuarine conditions affect life stages of striped bass, blue crabs, summer flounder, black sea bass differently
    • Chesapeake suitable habitat for juvenile summer flounder growth has declined by 50% or more
    • Climate change is expected to continue impacting habitat function and use for multiple species
    • Habitat improving in some areas (tidal fresh SAV, oyster reefs), but eelgrass declining
  • Ocean acidification impact on commercial species
    • Scallops and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and off New Jersey have experienced low aragonite
    • Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat
    • Lab work identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth
  • Warm core rings important to Illex availability.
    • Fishing effort concentrates on the eastern edge of warm core rings, where upwelling and enhanced productivity ocurr.
    • Fuel cost, plentiful longfin, and fewer warm core rings near the shelf led to lower Illex catch in 2022.

DistShift: 2 low, 9 mod-high, 3 high risk species

Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.

New Indicator: protected species shifts

30 / 43

Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic   Element: OceanUse

Indicators: development timeline, fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species?

31 / 43

Risks: Offshore Wind Development Summary

Implications:

  • 1-34% of port revenue from fisheries currently comes from areas proposed for offshore wind development. Some communities have environmental justice concerns and gentrification vulnerability.
  • Up to 17% of annual commercial landings and revenue for Mid-Atlantic species occur in lease areas.
  • Development will affect species differently, negatively affecting species that prefer soft bottom habitat while potentially benefiting species that prefer hard structured habitat.
  • Planned wind areas overlap with important right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise.
32 / 43

Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region Evaluating the impacts to scientific surveys has begun.

EAFM Risk Assessment: 2023 Update (all methods to be reveiwed/revised this year)

Species level risk elements

Species Assess Fstatus Bstatus FW1Pred FW1Prey FW2Prey Climate DistShift EstHabitat
Ocean Quahog lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest highest modhigh lowest
Surfclam lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh modhigh lowest
Summer flounder lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Scup lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Black sea bass lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh modhigh highest
Atl. mackerel lowest highest highest lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh lowest
Chub mackerel highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowest na na lowest
Butterfish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest highest lowest
Longfin squid lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Shortfin squid highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest highest lowest
Golden tilefish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish highest highest modhigh lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest
Bluefish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh highest
Spiny dogfish lowest highest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest highest lowest
Monkfish highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest
Unmanaged forage na na na lowest lowmod lowmod na na na
Deepsea corals na na na lowest lowest lowest na na na
  • RT assessment decreased Spiny dogfish Assess, risk to low and increased Fstatus risk to high
  • RT assessment decreased bluefish Bstatus risk from high to low-moderate
  • RT assessment increased Illex Assess risk from low-moderate to high

Ecosystem level risk elements

System EcoProd CommRev RecVal FishRes1 FishRes4 FleetDiv Social ComFood RecFood
Mid-Atlantic lowmod modhigh lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowmod highest modhigh
  • Recreational value risk decreased from low-moderate to low

Species and Sector level risk elements

Species MgtControl TecInteract OceanUse RegComplex Discards Allocation
Ocean Quahog-C lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Surfclam-C lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Summer flounder-R modhigh lowest lowmod modhigh highest highest
Summer flounder-C lowmod modhigh lowmod modhigh modhigh lowest
Scup-R lowmod lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh highest
Scup-C lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh modhigh lowest
Black sea bass-R highest lowest modhigh modhigh highest highest
Black sea bass-C highest lowmod highest modhigh highest lowest
Atl. mackerel-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Atl. mackerel-C lowest lowmod modhigh highest lowmod highest
Butterfish-C lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh modhigh lowest
Longfin squid-C lowest modhigh highest modhigh highest lowest
Shortfin squid-C lowmod lowmod lowmod modhigh lowest highest
Golden tilefish-R na lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Golden tilefish-C lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish-C lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Bluefish-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Bluefish-C lowest lowest lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest
Spiny dogfish-R lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Spiny dogfish-C lowest modhigh modhigh modhigh lowmod lowest
Chub mackerel-C lowest lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest lowest
Unmanaged forage lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest lowest
Deepsea corals na na modhigh na na na
  • Management section not updated--to be revised this year
33 / 43

Comments on overall risk assessment for EOP to consider?

Updates to the SOE request tracking memo

Now organized by priority and category

  • Priority from SSC eco WG and Council
  • Categories from SOE team
  • Highest priority requests in progress
    • System level thresholds and reference points
    • Trend analysis, inflections and break points
    • Regime shifts
  • Identified some gaps
    • Short term forecasts
    • Management complexity
    • Recreational bycatch
  • Stock level indicators best addressed in research tracks?
  • SOE use statistics and memo updates in progress
  • Lowest priority requests likely to be dropped

Comments on priorities? Categories?

34 / 43

SSC Ecosystem Working Group Update

Objective: assist the Council in developing short term and long term objectives to advance the operational use of ecosystem information in management decisions

Outcomes for the Council:

  • An OFL CV process that makes better use of ecosystem information in determining the ABC
  • Evaluation of multiple ecosystem indicators and potential development of thresholds for use in a revised EAFM risk assessment and/or other Council processes
  • Increased range of opportunities for relevant ecosystem information to be considered in management decision processes
35 / 43

Reported progress to MAFMC, October 2022

Objective 1: Expanding and clarifying the ecosystem portion of the SSC OFL CV determination process (short term objective)

  • Simulation analyses evaluating impact of ecosystem indicators on stock productivity and assessment uncertainty (OFL CV) in progress

Objective 2: Developing prototype processes to provide multispecies and system level scientific advice appropriate for Council decision making, highlighting tradeoffs linking directly to economic and social outcomes (long term objective)

  • Initial indicators and analyses presented evaluating ecosystem overfishing and ecosystem performance given environmental conditions

Objective 3: Collaborating with relevant working groups in developing the stock-specific Ecosystem and Socio-economic Profiles (ESP) process to specify stock-specific Ecosystem ToRs (moderate-term objective)

  • Ecosystem socioeconomic profiles in progress for several MAFMC stocks, and multiple SSC members involved in Research Track working groups
36 / 43

More information at the species level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model

Pacific cod example from ASFC: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/2021-alaska-fisheries-science-center-year-review and https://apps-afsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/refm/docs/2021/GOApcod.pdf

37 / 43

Bluefish ESP reviewed December 2022

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model

Reviewers commented that it was the most complete treatment of a stock assessment "ecosystem ToR" they had seen, and formed a good basis for integrating further ecosystem information into the stock assessment in the future.

The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the stock assessment data portal

Potential use of summary table in OFL CV or other decisions?

38 / 43

The Bluefish Research Track ESP was presented December 7 2022, and was well received by CIE reviewers. Reviewers commented that it was the most complete treatment of a stock assessment "ecosystem ToR" they had seen, and formed a good basis for integrating further ecosystem information into the stock assessment in the future. The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the stock assessment data portal.

In addition to the conceptual model, a summary table was developed for bluefish ecosystem indicators. This type of summary could contribute to OFL CV decisions with further information on how these indicator levels affect uncertainty in assessment.

THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 71 contributors from 20+ institutions

Kimberly Bastille
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA)
Andy Beet
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut)
Joseph Caracappa
Doug Christel (GARFO)
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Art Degaetano (Cornell U)
Geret DePiper
Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS)
Hubert du Pontavice
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Sarah Gaichas
Ben Galuardi (GARFO)
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Lori Garzio (Rutgers University)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
John Kosik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Scott Large
Gabe Larouche (Cornell U)
Daniel Linden
Andrew Lipsky
Sean Lucey
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Chris Melrose
Shannon Meseck
Ryan Morse
Ray Mroch (SEFSC)
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)
Kimberly Murray
Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Debi Palka
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR)
Charles Perretti
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Kristin Precoda
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Grace Saba (Rutgers)
Vincent Saba
Sarah Salois
Chris Schillaci (GARFO)
Amy Schueller (SEFSC)
Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University)
Dave Secor (CBL)
Angela Silva
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST)
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)
Laurel Smith
Talya tenBrink (GARFO)
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Changhua Weng
Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM)
Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources)
Mark Wuenschel
39 / 43

References

Bastille, K. et al. (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

DePiper, G. S. et al. (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsx038. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701 (visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

Muffley, B. et al. (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

Perretti, C. et al. (2017). "Regime shifts in fish recruitment on the Northeast US Continental Shelf". En. In: Marine Ecology Progress Series 574, pp. 1-11. ISSN: 0171-8630, 1616-1599. DOI: 10.3354/meps12183. URL: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/ (visited on Feb. 10, 2022).

Additional resources

40 / 43

Extra slides

41 / 43

2023 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo: now prioritized

42 / 43

Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic, changes to marine heatwave methods

To identify extreme events separately from the baseline warming, methods describing marine heatwaves have been changed to remove the global warming signal. These indicators look different than in previous reports, but now identify truly extreme departures from an already warming ecosystem.

A combination of long-term ocean warming and extreme events should be used to assess total heat stress on marine organisms.
43 / 43

A marine heatwave is a warming event that lasts for five or more days with sea surface temperatures above the 90th percentile of the historical daily climatology (1982-2011).

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley, et al., 2020)

    • Risk assessment methods update in 2023

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

2 / 43
Paused

Help

Keyboard shortcuts

↑, ←, Pg Up, k Go to previous slide
↓, →, Pg Dn, Space, j Go to next slide
Home Go to first slide
End Go to last slide
Number + Return Go to specific slide
b / m / f Toggle blackout / mirrored / fullscreen mode
c Clone slideshow
p Toggle presenter mode
t Restart the presentation timer
?, h Toggle this help
Esc Back to slideshow