Ocean acidification in Northeast US State of the Ecosystem reporting

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# Ocean acidification in Northeast US State of the Ecosystem reporting
]
.subtitle[
## NECAN webinar 22 March 2023
]
.author[
### Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Bastille, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith Northeast Fisheries Science Center Brandon Muffley, MAFMC and all SOE contributors
]

---

class: top, left

# State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

.pull-left-70[

- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper, et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
 + Contextual information
 + Report evolving since 2016
 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2021></a>([Bastille, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

- Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2021></a>([Muffley, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
 + Risk assessment <a name=cite-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>([Gaichas, et al., 2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract))
 + Conceptual modeling <a name=cite-depiper_learning_2021></a>([DePiper, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054))
 + Management strategy evaluation ([MSE](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse))

]

.pull-right-30[
![:img 2023 SOE Mid Atlantic Cover Page, 100%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-03.16.23_Page_1.png)

]

---
## Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

* Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. 
* Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.  
* Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

.pull-left[

![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SystemDrivers_v5.jpg)
]

.pull-right[
![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg)
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online.  
]

.pull-right[
Key to figures
<img src="20230322_NECAN_SOE-OA_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="396" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem report structure: two sections
.pull-left[
*Performance relative to management objectives*
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 75%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-03.16.23_Page_2.png)
]
]

.pull-right[
*Risks to meeting fishery management objectives*
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets, 75%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-03.16.23_Page_3.png)
]
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-03.16.23_Page_2.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Performance relative to management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Recreational opportunities:  Effort ![:img increasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Stability: Fishery ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species: 
*  Maintain bycatch below thresholds ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)  
*  Recover endangered populations (NARW) ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)  
]
.pull-right-40[]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-03.16.23_Page_3.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Risks to meeting fishery management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue
*  Heat waves and Gulf Stream instability
*  Estuarine, coastal, and offshore habitats affected, with range of species responses
*  Distribution shifts complicate management
*  Multiple fish with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development
*  Current revenue in proposed areas
    - 1-34% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    - up to 17% by managed species
*  Different development impacts for species preferring soft bottom vs. hard bottom 
*  Overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks 
*  Rapid buildout in patchwork of areas 
*  Scientific survey mitigation required
]
.pull-right-40[]

---
## OA included in Risks: Climate change and offshore habitat 
.pull-left[
Indicator: cold pool indices
<img src="20230322_NECAN_SOE-OA_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: Mid Atlantic Ocean acidification
![:img Mid Seasonal pH](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/Saba_Fig_SOE_MAFMC.jpg)

]

.pull-right[

Indicator: warm core rings
<img src="20230322_NECAN_SOE-OA_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Summer aragonite saturation low for both Atlantic sea scallop and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and the nearshore and mid-shelf regions of the New Jersey shelf several times over the past decade.

There were fewer warm core rings near the continental shelf in 2022, which combined with economic fishery drivers may have contributed to total catch of *Illex* squid being 20% less than the total catch reported in 2021.
.contrib[]
]
???

---
## Implications: Climate change and managed species &emsp; Risk elements unchanged, new info:

.pull-left[
Climate: 6 low, 3 low-mod, 4 mod-high, 1 high risk

*Multiple drivers with different impacts by species*    
* Seasonal estuarine conditions affect life stages of striped bass, blue crabs, summer flounder, black sea bass differently
.contrib[
+ Chesapeake suitable habitat for juvenile summer flounder growth has declined by 50% or more 
+ Climate change is expected to continue impacting habitat function and use for multiple species  
+ Habitat improving in some areas (tidal fresh SAV, oyster reefs), but eelgrass declining 
] 
* Ocean acidification impact on commercial species  
.contrib[
+ Scallops and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and off New Jersey have experienced low aragonite
+ Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat  
+ Lab work identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth
] 
* Warm core rings important to *Illex* availability. 
.contrib[
+ Fishing effort concentrates on the eastern edge of warm core rings, where upwelling and enhanced productivity ocurr. 
+ Fuel cost, plentiful longfin, and fewer warm core rings near the shelf led to lower *Illex* catch in 2022.
]
]

.pull-right[
DistShift: 2 low, 9 mod-high, 3 high risk species

.contrib[
Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.  
]

*New Indicator: protected species shifts*
<img src="20230322_NECAN_SOE-OA_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---

## SOE use in management: Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council (MAFMC)

.pull-left-30[
![:img US East Coast map highlighting Mid-Atlantic council jurisdiction, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MACouncil.png)
]
.pull-right-70[
![:img MAFMC fishery management plans and species, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAFMPs3.png)
]
.footnote[Source: http://www.mafmc.org/fishery-management-plans]

---
## Integrated Ecosystem Assessment and the MAFMC Ecosystem Approach

Diverse stakeholders agreed that an ecosystem approach was necessary. Developing and implementing EAFM is done in collaboration between managers, stakeholders, and scientists. https://www.mafmc.org/eafm

.pull-left[
![:img IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/iea-loop.png)
.footnote[
https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]
.pull-right[
![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework with full details in speaker notes, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Framework.png)
   * Direct link between ecosystem reporting and risk assessment
   * Conceptual model links across risk elements for fisheries, species
   * Management strategy evaluation includes key risks

]
???
The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

---
## State of the Ecosystem &rarr; MAFMC Risk assessent example: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

.table[
.pull-left[

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> No trend and low variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Increasing or high variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant long term revenue decrease </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Significant recent decrease in revenue </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species (red points in top plot)
]
]
.pull-right[
<img src="20230322_NECAN_SOE-OA_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species
]

## Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

**SOE Implications:** Recent change driven by benthos. Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers: 
- Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. 
- pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2023 Update (all methods to be reveiwed/revised this year)

.pull-left[
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Pred </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* RT assessment decreased Spiny dogfish **Assess**, risk to low and increased **Fstatus** risk to high
* RT assessment decreased bluefish **Bstatus** risk from high to low-moderate
* RT assessment increased Illex **Assess** risk from low-moderate to high
]

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommRev </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes4 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FleetDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Recreational value risk decreased from low-moderate to low
] 
]

.pull-right[ 
*Species and Sector level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> MgtControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> TecInteract </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OceanUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Management section not updated--to be revised this year 
]
]

???
Comments on overall risk assessment for EOP to consider?

---
.pull-left[
## SOE use in management: MAFMC

* Based on risk assessment, the Council selected summer flounder as high-risk fishery for conceptual modeling

![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework, 95%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Framework.png)
* Council proceeding with management strategy evaluation (MSE) addressing [recreational fishery discards](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse) using information from conceptual modeling.
]
.pull-right[

<div id="htmlwidget-2235b385ed0e78ca9f61" style="width:100%;height:710px;" class="widgetframe html-widget"></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-2235b385ed0e78ca9f61">{"x":{"url":"20230322_NECAN_SOE-OA_Gaichas_files/figure-html//widgets/widget_sfconceptmod.html","options":{"xdomain":"*","allowfullscreen":false,"lazyload":false}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>

]

???
In this interactive circular graph visualization, model elements identified as important by the Council (through risk assessment) and by the working group (through a range of experience and expertise) are at the perimeter of the circle. Elements are defined in detail in the last section of [this page](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_riskfactors_subplots.html). Relationships between elements are represented as links across the center of the circle to other elements on the perimeter. Links from a model element that affect another element start wide at the base and are color coded to match the category of the element they affect.Hover over a perimeter section (an element) to see all relationships for that element, including links from other elements. Hover over a link to see what it connects. Links by default show text for the two elements and the direction of the relationship (1 for relationship, 0 for no relationship--most links are one direction).For example, hovering over the element "Total Landings" in the full model shows that the working group identified the elements affected by landings as Seafood Production, Recreational Value, and Commercial Profits (three links leading out from landings), and the elements affecting landings as Fluke SSB, Fluke Distributional Shift, Risk Buffering, Management Control, Total Discards, and Shoreside Support (6 links leading into Total Landings).

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MSECSIRO.png")
background-size: 800px
background-position: right

## What is Management Strategy Evaluation?
.pull-left-30[
- Process to develop fishery management procedures

- First used in S. Africa, Australia, and at International Whaling Commission  late 1980s - early 1990s

.contrib[
>Under this approach, management advice is based on a fully specified set of rules that have been tested in simulations of a wide variety of scenarios that specifically take uncertainty into account. The full procedure includes specifications for the data to be collected and how those data are to be used to provide management advice, in a manner that incorporates a feedback mechanism. 
]
]

---
## MSE results: including the ecosystem
.center[
![:img Summer flounder MSE results by OM, 95%](https://github.com/gavinfay/fluke-mafmc-recdisc/raw/main/outputs/plots/median-metrics-alloms-slides.png)
]

.footnote[
[August MAFMC briefing materials](https://www.mafmc.org/s/Tab02_Summer-Flounder-MSE_2022-08.pdf) and [full results on the web](https://gavinfay.github.io/fluke-mafmc-recdisc/summary-metrics.html)
]
???
* Linked recreational demand and population dynamics model
* Alternative operating model included northward distribution shift as change in availability by state
* Rank order of management options maintained, but degraded performance when considering ecosystem change

---
background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAFMC_EAFMwordcloud.png)
background-size: 330px
background-position: bottom right

## How might fishery managers use OA information in the future?

.pull-left[
*Species level decisions*

+ MAFMC includes climate vulnerability in scientific uncertainty considerations for establishing Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC)
+ OA sensitivity is included in climate vulnerability
+ OA sensitivity thresholds for individual species in 2022-2023 SOE
+ With full region OA reporting, potential to consider in stock assessment

*System level decisions*

+ Habitat climate vulnerability assessment recently completed
+ With full region OA reporting, OA could be included in
    + Ecosystem and habitat assessments
    + Multispecies metabolic indices
]

.pull-right[
Focus on developing *decision processes* that are able to use OA information

*  Collaborative, iterative process between scientists, managers, stakeholders
*  Ecosystem reporting, risk and vulnerability assessment useful tools
*  Multispecies and system level indicators of productivity change 
]

---
.center[
# Questions? &emsp; &emsp; Thank you! 
]

## Links and References
.pull-left[
* [US EBFM Policy](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/ecosystem-based-fisheries-management-policy), [US EBFM Roadmap](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/ecosystem-based-fisheries-management-road-map)  
* [US Integrated Ecosystem Assessments](https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/)
* [Northeast US Ecosystem Reports](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)  
* [Ecosystem Report Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)  
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)
]
.pull-right[
* [MAFMC SSC](https://www.mafmc.org/ssc)
* [MAFMC EAFM](https://www.mafmc.org/eafm)
* [MAFMC EAFM Summer Flounder MSE](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov>
]
]

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2021></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2021) (2021). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 72-89. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

<a name=bib-depiper_learning_2021></a>[DePiper, G. et
al.](#cite-depiper_learning_2021) (2021). "Learning by doing:
collaborative conceptual modelling as a path forward in ecosystem-based
management". In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_. ISSN: 1054-3139.
DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsab054).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054)
(visited on Apr. 15, 2021).

<a name=bib-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et
al.](#cite-gaichas_implementing_2018) (2018). "Implementing Ecosystem
Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US
Mid-Atlantic". In: _Frontiers in Marine Science_ 5. ISSN: 2296-7745.
DOI:
[10.3389/fmars.2018.00442](https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffmars.2018.00442).
URL:
[https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract)
(visited on Nov. 20, 2018).

<a name=bib-muffley_there_2021></a>[Muffley, B. et
al.](#cite-muffley_there_2021) (2021). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management".
In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 90-106. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).
]