State of the Ecosystem Mid-Atlantic 2023

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.title[
# State of the Ecosystem Mid-Atlantic 2023
]
.subtitle[
## Risk Assessment Update, Request Tracking, and Ecosystem Working Group Report MAFMC SSC 7 March 2023
]
.author[
### Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Bastille, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith Northeast Fisheries Science Center Brandon Muffley, MAFMC and all SOE contributors
]

---

class: top, left

# State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

.pull-left[

- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper, et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
 + Contextual information
 + Report evolving since 2016
 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2020></a>([Bastille, et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

- Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2020></a>([Muffley, et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
 + Risk assessment methods update in 2023
 
]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop1*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//iea-loop.png)

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]
???

---
## State of the Ecosystem: Maintain 2021-2022 structure for 2023
.pull-left[

## 2023 Report Structure
1. Graphical summary
    + Page 1 report card re: objectives &rarr;
    + Page 2 risk summary bullets
    + Page 3 synthesis themes
1. Performance relative to management objectives
1. Risks to meeting management objectives

]

.pull-right[

<table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Provisioning and Cultural Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Angler trips; recreational fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance and environmental justice status </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Supporting and Regulating Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, zooplankton </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem report structure: graphical summary
.pull-left[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 95%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-02.28.23_Page_2.png)
]
]

.pull-right[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets, 95%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-02.28.23_Page_3.png)
]
]

---
## Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

* Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. 
* Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.  
* Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

.pull-left[

![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//SystemDrivers_v5.jpg)
]

.pull-right[
![:img](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg)
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures

.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html) (2021 Memo 5), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online.  
]

.pull-right[
Key to figures
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="396" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

---
## 2023 State of the Ecosystem Request tracking memo: now prioritized

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1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-4fed2cd5{width:203.9pt;background-color:rgba(207, 207, 207, 1.00);vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-top: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-4fed2cd6{width:79.3pt;background-color:rgba(207, 207, 207, 1.00);vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-top: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}</style><table class='cl-4ffb63d0'><thead><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2cca">Request</td><td class="cl-4fed2cd6">Year</td><td class="cl-4fed2cd4">Rank</td><td class="cl-4fed2ccb">Source</td><td class="cl-4fed2cd5">Status</td><td class="cl-4fed2cc1">Progress</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2a23">System level thresholds/ref pts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b59">Compare EOF (Link) thresholds to empirical thresholds (Large, Tam) </td><td class="cl-4fed2b6d">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2b5a">Highest</td><td class="cl-4fed2b63">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b62">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6c">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2bda">Trend Analysis / Inflection / Break points</td><td class="cl-4fed2bee">2019 - 2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2bdb">Highest</td><td class="cl-4fed2be4">Both Councils and SSCs</td><td class="cl-4fed2bdc">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2be5">Prototype analysis 2022-2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b76">Optimum yield for ecosystem</td><td class="cl-4fed2b8a">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2b77">Highest</td><td class="cl-4fed2b81">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6e">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2b80">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2aa4">How does phyto size comp affect EOF indicator, if at all?</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab8">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2aaf">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2aae">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9b">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2aa5">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b76">Sum of TAC/ Landings relative to TAC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b8a">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2b77">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2b81">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6e">In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b80">Seafood Production section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2aa4">Nutrient input, Benthic Flux and POC (particulate organic carbon) to inform benthic productivity by something other than surface indicators</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab8">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2aaf">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2aae">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9b">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2aa5">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b76">Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics</td><td class="cl-4fed2b8a">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2b77">Lowest</td><td class="cl-4fed2b81">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6e">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2b80">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2cad">Management</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a54">Incorporate social sciences survey from council</td><td class="cl-4fed2a4b">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2a4c">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2a41">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a4a">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2a40">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a5f">Management complexity</td><td class="cl-4fed2a5e">2019</td><td class="cl-4fed2a68">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2a60">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a72">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2a55">Student work needs further analysis, no further work this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a73">Recreational bycatch mortality as an indicator of regulatory waste</td><td class="cl-4fed2a86">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2a91">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9a">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a7c">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2a90">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2aa4">Include New England ports with significant reliance on mid species be included in the Mid SOE</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab8">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2aaf">Unranked</td><td class="cl-4fed2aae">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9b">In SOE</td><td class="cl-4fed2aa5">Other Ocean Uses: Offshore Wind section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2ac3">Re-evaluate EPUs</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab9">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2ac2">Lowest</td><td class="cl-4fed2acd">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2acc">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2aba">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2ae1">Short term forecasts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b09">Using phytoplankton trends to forecast fish stocks</td><td class="cl-4fed2b08">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2af4">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2af5">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2aff">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2afe">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2aa4">Short term forecasting (water temp, productivity)</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab8">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2aaf">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2aae">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9b">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2aa5">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2b0b">Regime shifts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b45">Time series analysis (Zooplankton/Forage fish) to tie into regime shifts</td><td class="cl-4fed2b4f">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2b44">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2b4e">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b1d">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2b58">Individual projects started</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b76">Regime shifts in Social-Economic indicators</td><td class="cl-4fed2b8a">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2b77">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2b81">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6e">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2b80">Analysis planning with Mid SSC</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2b97">Multiple system drivers</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b59">Linking Condition </td><td class="cl-4fed2b6d">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2b5a">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2b63">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b62">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6c">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b9f">Avg weight of diet components by feeding group</td><td class="cl-4fed2bbc">2019</td><td class="cl-4fed2bb2">High</td><td class="cl-4fed2ba8">Internal</td><td class="cl-4fed2ba9">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2bb3">Part of fish condition project</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a73">Cumulative weather index</td><td class="cl-4fed2a86">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2a91">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9a">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a7c">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2a90">Data gathered for prototype</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a5f">Fall turnover date index</td><td class="cl-4fed2a5e">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2a68">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2a60">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a72">In SOE</td><td class="cl-4fed2a55">Climate and Ecosystem Productivity section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2ac3">Modeling cold pool/warm core ring and wind development interactions</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab9">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2ac2">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2acd">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2acc">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2aba">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2bc7">Impact of climate on data streams (changes in catchability of survey)</td><td class="cl-4fed2bc8">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2bbd">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2bd1">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2bd0">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2bc6">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a73">Young of Year index from multiple surveys</td><td class="cl-4fed2a86">2019</td><td class="cl-4fed2a91">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9a">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a7c">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2a90">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2bc7">Links between species availability inshore/offshore (estuarine conditions) and trends in recreational fishing effort?</td><td class="cl-4fed2bc8">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2bbd">Unranked</td><td class="cl-4fed2bd1">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2bd0">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2bc6">Bluefish prey index inshore/offshore partially addresses</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b76">Tell Social stories like we try to tell biological stories</td><td class="cl-4fed2b8a">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2b77">Unranked</td><td class="cl-4fed2b81">GARFO</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6e">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2b80">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2bf8">What determines a "risk"? Include aquaculture as a risk?</td><td class="cl-4fed2bef">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2bf0">Unranked</td><td class="cl-4fed2c03">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2bf9">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2c02">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a73">Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds</td><td class="cl-4fed2a86">2019</td><td class="cl-4fed2a91">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9a">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a7c">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2a90">Intern evaluated trends in guild diets</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a5f">Environmental Justice - Further Explanation and maybe have Soc Sci folks on call to explain</td><td class="cl-4fed2a5e">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2a68">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2a60">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a72">In SOE</td><td class="cl-4fed2a55">Social and cultural section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b76">Changing per capita seafood consumption as driver of revenue?</td><td class="cl-4fed2b8a">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2b77">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2b81">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6e">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2b80">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a5f">Relate OA to nutrient input; are there "dead zones" (hypoxia)?</td><td class="cl-4fed2a5e">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2a68">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2a60">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a72">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2a55">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b76">Estuarine Water Quality</td><td class="cl-4fed2b8a">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2b77">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2b81">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b6e">In SOE-MAFMC, In progress-NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2b80">Intern project 2021 needs expansion</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2b9f">Decomposition of diversity drivers highlighting social components</td><td class="cl-4fed2bbc">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2bb2">Lowest</td><td class="cl-4fed2ba8">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2ba9">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2bb3">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2ac3">Indicators of chemical pollution in offshore waters</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab9">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2ac2">Lowest</td><td class="cl-4fed2acd">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2acc">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2aba">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2bf8">Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp</td><td class="cl-4fed2bef">2019</td><td class="cl-4fed2bf0">Lowest</td><td class="cl-4fed2c03">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2bf9">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2c02">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2c0e">Functional group level status/thresholds/ref pts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2c2a">Forage availability index (Herring/Sandlance)</td><td class="cl-4fed2c2c">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2c2b">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2c34">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2c20">In SOE</td><td class="cl-4fed2c21">Climate and Ecosystem Productivity section</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2c3f">VAST and uncertainty </td><td class="cl-4fed2c35">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2c48">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2c36">Both Councils</td><td class="cl-4fed2c40">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2c3e">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2bda">Seal index</td><td class="cl-4fed2bee">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2bdb">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2be4">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2bdc">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2be5">Not ready for 2023</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2ac3">Apex predator index (pinnipeds)</td><td class="cl-4fed2ab9">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2ac2">Low</td><td class="cl-4fed2acd">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2acc">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2aba">Protected species branch developing time series</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2c53">Biomass of spp not included in BTS</td><td class="cl-4fed2c5c">2020</td><td class="cl-4fed2c5d">Lowest</td><td class="cl-4fed2c54">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2c49">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2c52">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2ae1">Stock level indicators</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2c2a">Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity)</td><td class="cl-4fed2c2c">2019</td><td class="cl-4fed2c2b">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2c34">MAFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2c20">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2c21">Project with A. Hollander</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2c8e">Indicator of scallop pred pops poorly sampled by bottom trawls</td><td class="cl-4fed2c7a">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2c8f">Moderate</td><td class="cl-4fed2c84">NEFMC</td><td class="cl-4fed2c85">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2c90">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2aa4">Sturgeon Bycatch </td><td class="cl-4fed2ab8">2021</td><td class="cl-4fed2aaf">Lowest</td><td class="cl-4fed2aae">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9b">Not started</td><td class="cl-4fed2aa5">Lacking resources this year</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td colspan="6"class="cl-4fed2c98">SOE admin</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2c2a">SOE usage tracking</td><td class="cl-4fed2c2c">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2c2b">Unranked</td><td class="cl-4fed2c34">MAFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2c20">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2c21">Request in to communications experts</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-4fed2a73">Include estimates of inclusion years in request memo</td><td class="cl-4fed2a86">2022</td><td class="cl-4fed2a91">Unranked</td><td class="cl-4fed2a9a">NEFMC SSC</td><td class="cl-4fed2a7c">In progress</td><td class="cl-4fed2a90">Reorganized memo to clarify project timing</td></tr></tbody></table></div></template>
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---
## Report structure revised in 2021 to address Council requests and improve synthesis

.pull-left[
* Performance relative to management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Objectives
    - Seafood production
    - Profits
    - Recreational opportunities
    - Stability
    - Social and cultural
    - Protected species
]

.pull-right[
* Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Risk categories
    - Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification
        - Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis)
        - Productivity changes (system and fish)
        - Species interaction changes
        - Community structure changes
    - Other ocean uses
        - Offshore wind development
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-02.28.23_Page_2.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Performance relative to management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png), ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Recreational opportunities:  Effort ![:img increasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Effort diversity ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

Stability: Fishery ![:img no trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); Ecological ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png)

Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:  
*  Fishing engagement and reliance by community  
*  Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community

Protected species: 
*  Maintain bycatch below thresholds ![:img mixed trend icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)  
*  Recover endangered populations (NARW) ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 4%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)  
]
.pull-right-40[]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-02.28.23_Page_3.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023: 
**Risks to meeting fishery management objectives**

.pull-left-60[
Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue
*  Heat waves and Gulf Stream instability
*  Estuarine, coastal, and offshore habitats affected, with range of species responses
*  Distribution shifts complicate management
*  Multiple fish with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development
*  Current revenue in proposed areas
    - 1-34% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    - up to 17% by managed species
*  Different development impacts for species preferring soft bottom vs. hard bottom 
*  Overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks 
*  Rapid buildout in patchwork of areas 
*  Scientific survey mitigation required
]
.pull-right-40[]

---
# 2023 Performance relative to management objectives

.center[
![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//5_FISHING.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//6_INDUSTRY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//18.MULTIPLE_SYSTEM_DRIVERS.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//22.SPIRITUAL_CULTURAL.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Protected species icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//16.PROTECTEDSPECIES.png)
]

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) &emsp; Risk elements: ComFood and RecFood, unchanged

.pull-left[
Indicators: Commercial landings, total and seafood

.contrib[
Key: Black = Landings of all species; Blue = Seafood landings; Red = MAFMC managed seafood landings
]

*Total landings now include Atlantic menhaden*

]

.pull-right[
Indicators: Recreational harvest
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change.

???
The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change.
---
## Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC? &emsp; Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl

.pull-left[
Indicator: Stock status

.contrib[
Most stocks have good status. Butterfish B status has improved. Results from Dec 2022 Research Track assessments shown for Spiny dogfish (F above threshold) and bluefish (B above limit) do not represent official management advice.  
]
]

.pull-right[

Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target

.contrib[
Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role
]
]

???
Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC.

Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species.

---
## Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production Drivers
.pull-left[
Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends

.contrib[
Key: Black = NEFSC survey; Red = NEAMAP survey
]

]

.pull-right[
Declining seafood mainly benthos: surfclam/ocean quahog market drivers

<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="324" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
* Declining total mainly planktivores: menhaden fishery consolidation
* Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor: 
* climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions
* ecosystem composition and production changes  
* fishing engagement  
]
]

???
Stock status is above the minimum threshold for all but one stock, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, so the decline in commercial seafood landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as landings have been below quotas for these species. The long term decline in total planktivore landings is largely driven by Atlantic menhaden fishery dynamics, including a consolidation of processors leading to reduced fishing capacity between the 1990s and mid-2000s.

Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) &emsp; Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

.pull-left[
Indicator: Commercial Revenue

<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species
]
Recent change driven by benthos 
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers: 
- Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. 
- pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth
]

.pull-right[
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="540" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

???
Recent declines in prices contributed to falling revenue as quantities landed did not increase enough to counteract declining prices.

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png); ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Risk element: RecValue, decreased risk

.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications

* Increased angler trips in 2020 relative to previous years strongly influenced the previously reported long term increase in recreational effort. Adding 2021 data, recreational effort (angler trips) has no long term trend.  
* The increasing long term trend from 2021 changed the risk categories for the RecValue element to low-moderate (previously ranked high risk). No trend indicates low risk.

* Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.  This metric could be added to the risk assessment.
* Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.

]

???
Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) &emsp; Risk elements: FishRes1 and FleetDiv, unchanged

.pull-left[
*Fishery*  Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Most recent commercial fleet counts at low range of series
]
]

.pull-right[
*Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Most recent commercial species revenue diversity near series low value
]

.contrib[
Recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time
]
]
---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Ecological Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near-long-term-average.png) &emsp; Risk element: include ecological diversity?

.pull-left[
*Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[
*Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey 
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Implications:  
* stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities  
* recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time  
* monitor zooplankton diversity as community composition changes

]
???
While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring.

---

## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability &emsp; Risk element: Social
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance 
.pull-left[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
Mid-Atlantic commercial fishing communities
]

.pull-right[

]

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

???
These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability &emsp; Risk element: Social 
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance 
.pull-left[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
Mid-Atlantic recreational fishing communities
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

Implications: There was an increase in recreational fishing activities in the many of the top recreational communities from 2019 to 2020. 
.contrib[
Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
]

---
## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch

]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Currently meeting objectives

* Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged

* The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

* The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).
]

---
## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

* Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

* Unusual mortality events continue for 2 large whale species.

* Risk elements: 
 - FW2Prey evaluated by species: 13 low, 3 low-mod risk, unchanged 
]

---
# 2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

.center[
![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//3_CLIMATE.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Wind icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//24.WIND.png)
]

.center[
![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//13_FORAGEFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Apex predators icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//17.APEXPREDATORS.png)  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png) 
]

---

## Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic
.pull-left[
Indicators: ocean currents, temperature, seasons
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="288" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[

]

The Gulf Stream is trending north. Ocean summer is lasting longer. In contrast to SST, long term bottom temperature is increasing in all seasons. 
.contrib[]
???
Seasonal sea surface temperatures in 2022 were above average for most of the year,  however late spring storms caused deep mixing, which delayed stratification and surface warming in late spring and early summer.

---
## Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic, changes to marine heatwave methods

.pull-left[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-33-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-35-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="75%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
] 
.contrib[
To identify extreme events separately from the baseline warming, methods describing marine heatwaves have been changed to remove the global warming signal. These indicators look different than in previous reports, but now identify truly extreme departures from an already warming ecosystem.]
A combination of long-term ocean warming and extreme events should be used to assess total heat stress on marine organisms.

???
A marine heatwave is a warming event that lasts for five or more days with sea surface temperatures above the 90th percentile of the  historical daily climatology (1982-2011).

---
## Risks: Climate change and estuarine habitat &emsp; Risk element: EstHabitat 11 low, 4 high risk species

.pull-left[
Indicators: Chesapeake Bay temperature and salinity

]

.pull-right[
Indicator: SAV trends in Chesapeake Bay
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="432" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: Water quality attainment
.reduced_opacity[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-40-1.png" width="432" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]

---
## Risks: Climate change and offshore habitat 
.pull-left[
Indicator: cold pool indices
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: Mid Atlantic Ocean acidification
![:img Mid Seasonal pH](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/Saba_Fig_SOE_MAFMC%20-%20Grace%20Saba.jpg)

]

.pull-right[

Indicator: warm core rings
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-42-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Summer aragonite saturation low for both Atlantic sea scallop and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and the nearshore and mid-shelf regions of the New Jersey shelf several times over the past decade.

There were fewer warm core rings near the continental shelf in 2022, which combined with economic fishery drivers may have contributed to total catch of *Illex* squid being 20% less than the total catch reported in 2021.
.contrib[]
]
???

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic &emsp; Risk element: EcoProd

.pull-left[
Indicators: chlorophyll, primary production, zooplankton
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-43-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[

]

.contrib[
Increased production by smaller phytoplankton implies less efficient transfer of primary production to higher trophic levels. Pteropods are important prey items for planktivores such as herring and mackerel, as well as some sea birds.  Pseudocalanus spp. are important prey for many larval fish species, and can influence phytoplankton standing stock through grazing.  
]
  
???

---
.pull-left-60[
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic &emsp; Risk element: EcoProd

Indicator: fish condition 
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-45-1.png" width="120%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: fish productivity anomaly &rarr;

Implications: 
Species in the MAB had mixed condition in 2022. Fish productivity based on surveys and assessments has been below average.

]

.pull-right-40[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-46-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-47-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Black line indicates sum where there are the same number of assessments across years.
]
]

???
Methods from <a name=cite-perretti_regime_2017></a>([Perretti, et al., 2017](http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/)). 
---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity All regions

Fluctuating environmental conditions and prey for forage species affect both abundance and energy content. Energy content varies by season, and has changed over time most dramatically for Atlantic herring

---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure and habitat: new diet based forage fish index, new diversity trends

.pull-left[
Mid Atlantic forage index
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-49-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-left[
Habitat model-based species richness by EPU
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-50-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Implications: forage, including species not well sampled by bottom trawls, has been fluctuating over time. Richness calculated for the most common species suggests shifts away from the Mid Atlantic towards Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine.

---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure All regions

Indicators: distribution shifts, diversity (previous sections) predator status and trends here
.pull-left[
*No trend in aggregate sharks*
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-51-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

*  No obvious increase in shark populations
*  Most highly migratory fish predators are not depleted: 
    - 10 above B target
    - 7 above B limit but below B target
    - 2 below B limit
]

.pull-right[
*HMS populations mainly at or above target*
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-52-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Implications: Climate change and managed species &emsp; Risk elements unchanged, new info:

.pull-left[
Climate: 6 low, 3 low-mod, 4 mod-high, 1 high risk

*Multiple drivers with different impacts by species*    
* Seasonal estuarine conditions affect life stages of striped bass, blue crabs, summer flounder, black sea bass differently
.contrib[
+ Chesapeake suitable habitat for juvenile summer flounder growth has declined by 50% or more 
+ Climate change is expected to continue impacting habitat function and use for multiple species  
+ Habitat improving in some areas (tidal fresh SAV, oyster reefs), but eelgrass declining 
] 
* Ocean acidification impact on commercial species  
.contrib[
+ Scallops and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and off New Jersey have experienced low aragonite
+ Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat  
+ Lab work identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth
] 
* Warm core rings important to *Illex* availability. 
.contrib[
+ Fishing effort concentrates on the eastern edge of warm core rings, where upwelling and enhanced productivity ocurr. 
+ Fuel cost, plentiful longfin, and fewer warm core rings near the shelf led to lower *Illex* catch in 2022.
]
]

.pull-right[
DistShift: 2 low, 9 mod-high, 3 high risk species

.contrib[
Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.  
]

*New Indicator: protected species shifts*
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-53-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic &emsp; Element: OceanUse

.pull-left[
Indicators: development timeline, fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species?

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20230307_SOEmemoWG_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-55-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---

background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/SOE_2023_right_whales_hatteras_frame_v3.jpg")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Summary

.pull-left[
Implications: 
*  1-34% of port revenue from fisheries currently comes from areas proposed for offshore wind development. Some communities have environmental justice concerns and gentrification vulnerability.
*  Up to 17% of annual commercial landings and revenue for Mid-Atlantic species occur in lease areas.
*  Development will affect species differently, negatively affecting species that prefer soft bottom habitat while potentially benefiting species that prefer hard structured habitat.
*  Planned wind areas overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise.
]
.pull-right[]

???
Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region 
Evaluating the impacts to scientific surveys has begun.

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2023 Update (all methods to be reveiwed/revised this year)

.pull-left[
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Pred </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* RT assessment decreased Spiny dogfish **Assess**, risk to low and increased **Fstatus** risk to high
* RT assessment decreased bluefish **Bstatus** risk from high to low-moderate
* RT assessment increased Illex **Assess** risk from low-moderate to high
]

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommRev </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes4 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FleetDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Recreational value risk decreased from low-moderate to low
] 
]

.pull-right[ 
*Species and Sector level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> MgtControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> TecInteract </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OceanUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Management section not updated--to be revised this year 
]
]

???
Comments on overall risk assessment for EOP to consider?

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/2023RespMemoBody_Page_1.png")
background-size: 520px
background-position: right

## Updates to the SOE request tracking memo

.pull-left-60[
Now organized by priority and category

*  Priority from SSC eco WG and Council
*  Categories from SOE team
*  Highest priority requests in progress
    -  System level thresholds and reference points
    -  Trend analysis, inflections and break points
    -  Regime shifts
*  Identified some gaps
    - Short term forecasts
    - Management complexity
    - Recreational bycatch
*  Stock level indicators best addressed in research tracks?
*  SOE use statistics and memo updates in progress
*  Lowest priority requests likely to be dropped

Comments on priorities? Categories?
]

.pull-right-40[
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-draft-02.28.23_Page_1.png")
background-size: 400px
background-position: right

## SSC Ecosystem Working Group Update
.pull-left-70[
Objective: assist the Council in developing short term and long term objectives to advance the operational use of ecosystem information in management decisions

Outcomes for the Council:

-   An OFL CV process that makes better use of ecosystem information in determining the ABC
-   Evaluation of multiple ecosystem indicators and potential development of thresholds for use in a revised EAFM risk assessment and/or other Council processes
-   Increased range of opportunities for relevant ecosystem information to be considered in management decision processes

*The SSC Ecosystem WG looks forward to the feedback of the full SSC on any of these topics, and always welcomes new members.*
]

---
## Reported progress to MAFMC, October 2022

#### Objective 1: Expanding and clarifying the ecosystem portion of the SSC OFL CV determination process (short term objective)

Simulation analyses evaluating impact of ecosystem indicators on stock productivity and assessment uncertainty (OFL CV) in progress

#### Objective 2: Developing prototype processes to provide multispecies and system level scientific advice appropriate for Council decision making, highlighting tradeoffs linking directly to economic and social outcomes (long term objective)

Initial indicators and analyses presented evaluating ecosystem overfishing and ecosystem performance given environmental conditions

#### Objective 3: Collaborating with relevant working groups in developing the stock-specific Ecosystem and Socio-economic Profiles (ESP) process to specify stock-specific Ecosystem ToRs (moderate-term objective)

Ecosystem socioeconomic profiles in progress for several MAFMC stocks, and multiple SSC members involved in Research Track working groups

---
## Prioritized SOE requests (see Request Tracking Memo)

## Summarized [approaches for using ecosystem information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations/20220815_SCS7_Keynote2_Gaichas.html) for SCS7 (see addendum)

## Reviewed progress on four projects, February 2023

.pull-left[
### Objective 1:

*  ABC decisions with environmentally driven recruitment (Wilberg et al)

*  Alternative stock performance metrics considering current conditions (Rago and Rothschild)

]

.pull-right[
### Objective 2:

*  Ecosystem overfishing indicators (Beet and Gaichas)

*  Index Numbers for ecosystem performance (Walden and DePiper)

]

---
## Update: ABC decisions with environmentally driven recruitment

.pull-left[
Do historical summer flounder recruitment dynamics demonstrate patterns of environmental effects?
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/flukerecsummertemp.png)
]

.pull-right[
How to develop alternative relationships between environmental drivers and recruitment for summer flounder and other species? Gaussian, sigmoidal, none

![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/flukeSpawnRecexample.png)
]

Work to continue integrating theoretical responses with summer flounder operating model, and harvest control rules representing Councils across the US.

???
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/flukerecresponse.png)

---
## New project: Alternative stock performance metrics considering current conditions

.pull-left[
How well do we play the hand we have been dealt?

Basic idea: compare observed quantities to optimal values GIVEN the recent history of stock
+ Recasts stock assessment outputs into a simple time series of ratios
+ Reduces over confidence in management skill when realized recruitment is high
+ Reduces over reaction when realized recruitment is low

Summer flounder example:
+ Major gains in rebuilding since 1990 but most of this was due to recruitments higher than most recent years.
+ Rel SSB near one since 2005.
+ Relative catch has oscillated since 1990 and only recently approached optimal

]

.pull-right[
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/flukerelativeyieldSSBetc.png)
]

---
## Update: Ecosystem overfishing indicators

.pull-left-60[
Reviewed new information and agreed with proposals:
*  Updated data inputs (menhaden)
*  Discard estimation still in progress
*  Comparisons of data sources
*  Calculate new thresholds using regional ecosystem productivity
*  Simulation test thresholds within ecosystem model Atlantis

Previous SSC discussion:
*  Thresholds define a "safe operating space"
     + Define the bounds where fishing causes poor system performance
     + Identify tradeoffs across species within the safe zone
*  Provide advice on options to correct ecosystem overfishing
*  Use social benefits to measure outcomes

What information would be most useful in decision making?

]

.pull-right-40[

![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/ryther-index-MAB.png)

]
???

![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/fogarty-index-Constant-MAB.png)

Declining commercial and recreational landings can be driven by many interacting factors, including combinations of ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions, and environmental change. While we cannot evaluate all possible drivers at present, here we evaluate the extent to which ecosystem overfishing (total landings exceeding ecosystem productive capacity), stock status, and system biomass trends may play a role.

---
.pull-left-60[
## Update: Index Numbers for ecosystem performance

Useful way to synthesize information
*  Integrates separate indicators into overall performance indicator
    +  Outputs linked to current management objectives
    +  Internal weighting using Data Envelopment Analysis
*  Can compare to any reference year
    +  Identify outputs of interest with the Council
    +  Identify linked environmental inputs

Reviewed results from previous recommendation:
*  Develop models for separate objectives
    +  Seafood production
    +  Recreational opportunities
    +  Ecosystem conditions

What information would be most useful in decision making?
]

.pull-right-40[
![:img DEA, 50%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/distancefunctionDEA.png)
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/landingsIndexMANE.png)
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/environmentIndexMANE.png)
]

---
## More information at the species level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

.pull-left[

![GOA pcod ESP conceptual model](https://media.fisheries.noaa.gov/styles/media_750_x500/s3/2022-03/Working_Conceptual_Model_EBS%20Pcod.png)
]

.pull-right[
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/GOApcodESPrisk.png)
]

.footnote[

Pacific cod example from ASFC: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/2021-alaska-fisheries-science-center-year-review and https://apps-afsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/refm/docs/2021/GOApcod.pdf
]

---
## Bluefish ESP reviewed December 2022

.pull-left[

![GOA pcod ESP conceptual model](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/bluefishconceptualmodel.png)
]

.pull-right[
![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/TOR1.svg)
]

Reviewers commented that it was the most complete treatment of a stock assessment "ecosystem ToR" they had seen, and formed a good basis for integrating further ecosystem information into the stock assessment in the future.

The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the [stock assessment data portal](https://apps-nefsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/saw/sasi_files.php?year=2022&species_id=32&stock_id=6&review_type_id=5&info_type_id=5&map_type_id=&filename=WP%2001%20Tyrell%20etAl%202022%20-%20ESP.pdf)

Discuss use of summary table in OFL CV or other decisions?
???

The Bluefish Research Track ESP was presented December 7 2022, and was well received by CIE reviewers. Reviewers commented that it was the most complete treatment of a stock assessment "ecosystem ToR" they had seen, and formed a good basis for integrating further ecosystem information into the stock assessment in the future. The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the [stock assessment data portal](https://apps-nefsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/saw/sasi_files.php?year=2022&species_id=32&stock_id=6&review_type_id=5&info_type_id=5&map_type_id=&filename=WP%2001%20Tyrell%20etAl%202022%20-%20ESP.pdf).

In addition to the conceptual model, a summary table was developed for bluefish ecosystem indicators. This type of summary could contribute to OFL CV decisions with further information on how these indicator levels affect uncertainty in assessment.

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 250px
background-position: right top

## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 67 contributors from 18 institutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Kimberly Bastille 
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
Andy Beet 
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Joseph Caracappa 
Doug Christel (GARFO) 
Patricia Clay 
Lisa Colburn 
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Geret DePiper 
Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
Hubert du Pontavice 
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Michael Fogarty 
Paula Fratantoni 
Kevin Friedland 
Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
Sarah Gaichas 
Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth) 
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
Lori Garzio (Rutgers University) 
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Sean Hardison 
Kimberly Hyde 
John Kosik 
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Scott Large 
Andrew Lipsky 
Sean Lucey 
]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Chris Melrose 
Shannon Meseck 
Ryan Morse 
Ray Mroch (SEFSC) 
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
Kimberly Murray 
Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) 
Chris Orphanides 
Richard Pace 
Debi Palka 
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR) 
Charles Perretti 
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
Vincent Saba 
Sarah Salois 
Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
Amy Schueller (SEFSC) 
Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University) 
Dave Secor (CBL) 
Angela Silva 
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
Laurel Smith 
Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
John Walden 
Harvey Walsh 
Changhua Weng 
Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program, BOEM) 
Mark Wuenschel

]
]

???

---
## References

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2020></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2020) (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

<a name=bib-muffley_there_2020></a>[Muffley, B. et
al.](#cite-muffley_there_2020) (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management".
In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)
(visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

<a name=bib-perretti_regime_2017></a>[Perretti, C. et
al.](#cite-perretti_regime_2017) (2017). "Regime shifts in fish
recruitment on the Northeast US Continental Shelf". En. In: _Marine
Ecology Progress Series_ 574, pp. 1-11. ISSN: 0171-8630, 1616-1599.
DOI: [10.3354/meps12183](https://doi.org/10.3354%2Fmeps12183). URL:
[http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/](http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/)
(visited on Feb. 10, 2022).
]

## Additional resources
.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* Visualizations:
  * [Mid-Atlantic Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_MAB)
  * [New England Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_NE)
  * [New England Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_NE)
  * [New England Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_NE)

]
.pull-right[
* [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [Draft indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov>
]
]