State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers
Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)
- Contextual information
- Report evolving since 2016
- Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports
Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)
Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley, et al., 2020)
- Risk assessment methods update in 2023
The IEA Loop1
State of the Ecosystem report structure: graphical summary
Ecosystem synthesis themes
Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management
- Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways.
- Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to regime shifts — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.
- Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.
State of the Ecosystem report scale and figures
Spatial scale
A glossary of terms (2021 Memo 5), detailed technical methods documentation and indicator data are available online.
Key to figures
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information
Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 yearsGrey background = last 10 years
State of the Ecosystem Summary 2023:
Performance relative to management objectives
Seafood production 
, 
Profits ,
Recreational opportunities: Effort 
; Effort diversity
Stability: Fishery ; Ecological 
Social and cultural, trend not evaluated, status of:
- Fishing engagement and reliance by community
- Environmental Justice (EJ) Vulnerability by community
Protected species:
- Maintain bycatch below thresholds
- Recover endangered populations (NARW)
2023 Performance relative to management objectives
Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production 
Risk elements: ComFood and RecFood, unchanged
Indicators: Commercial landings, total and seafood
Key: Black = Landings of all species;
Blue = Seafood landings;
Red = MAFMC managed seafood landings
Total landings now include Atlantic menhaden
Indicators: Recreational harvest
Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change.
Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC? Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl
Indicator: Stock status
Most stocks have good status. Butterfish B status has improved. Results from Dec 2022 Research Track assessments shown for Spiny dogfish (F above threshold) and bluefish (B above limit) do not represent official management advice.
Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target
Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role
Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production Drivers
Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends
Key: Black = NEFSC survey;
Red = NEAMAP survey
Declining seafood mainly benthos: surfclam/ocean quahog market drivers
- Declining total mainly planktivores: menhaden fishery consolidation
- Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology
Monitor:
- climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions
- ecosystem composition and production changes
- fishing engagement
Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits Risk element: CommRev, unchanged
Indicator: Commercial Revenue
Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined;
Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:
- Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification.
- pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices
Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities ; Risk element: RecValue, decreased risk
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity
Implications
- Increased angler trips in 2020 relative to previous years strongly influenced the previously reported long term increase in recreational effort. Adding 2021 data, recreational effort (angler trips) has no long term trend.
The increasing long term trend from 2021 changed the risk categories for the RecValue element to low-moderate (previously ranked high risk). No trend indicates low risk.
Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities. This metric could be added to the risk assessment.
- Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.
Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability Risk elements: FishRes1 and FleetDiv, unchanged
Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity
Most recent commercial fleet counts at low range of series
Fishery Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
Most recent commercial species revenue diversity near series low value
Recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time
Objective: Mid Atlantic Ecological Stability Risk element: include ecological diversity?
Ecological Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity
Ecological Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey
Implications:
- stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities
- recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time
- monitor zooplankton diversity as community composition changes
Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability Risk element: Social
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance
Mid-Atlantic commercial fishing communities
Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability Risk element: Social
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement and reliance
Mid-Atlantic recreational fishing communities
Implications: There was an increase in recreational fishing activities in the many of the top recreational communities from 2019 to 2020.
Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
Objectives: All Areas Protected species Maintain bycatch below thresholds
Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch
Implications:
Currently meeting objectives
Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged
The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.
The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).
Objectives: All Areas Protected species Recover endangered populations
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts
Implications:
Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.
Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.
Unusual mortality events continue for 2 large whale species.
Risk elements:
- FW2Prey evaluated by species: 13 low, 3 low-mod risk, unchanged
2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic
Indicators: ocean currents, temperature, seasons
The Gulf Stream is trending north. Ocean summer is lasting longer. In contrast to SST, long term bottom temperature is increasing in all seasons.
Risks: Climate change Mid Atlantic, changes to marine heatwave methods
To identify extreme events separately from the baseline warming, methods describing marine heatwaves have been changed to remove the global warming signal. These indicators look different than in previous reports, but now identify truly extreme departures from an already warming ecosystem.
Risks: Climate change and estuarine habitat Risk element: EstHabitat 11 low, 4 high risk species
Indicators: Chesapeake Bay temperature and salinity
Indicator: SAV trends in Chesapeake Bay
Indicator: Water quality attainment
Risks: Climate change and offshore habitat
Indicator: cold pool indices
Indicator: Mid Atlantic Ocean acidification
Indicator: warm core rings
Summer aragonite saturation low for both Atlantic sea scallop and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and the nearshore and mid-shelf regions of the New Jersey shelf several times over the past decade.
There were fewer warm core rings near the continental shelf in 2022, which combined with economic fishery drivers may have contributed to total catch of Illex squid being 20% less than the total catch reported in 2021.
Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic Risk element: EcoProd
Indicators: chlorophyll, primary production, zooplankton
Increased production by smaller phytoplankton implies less efficient transfer of primary production to higher trophic levels. Pteropods are important prey items for planktivores such as herring and mackerel, as well as some sea birds. Pseudocalanus spp. are important prey for many larval fish species, and can influence phytoplankton standing stock through grazing.
Risks: Ecosystem productivity Mid Atlantic Risk element: EcoProd
Indicator: fish condition
Indicator: fish productivity anomaly →
Implications: Species in the MAB had mixed condition in 2022. Fish productivity based on surveys and assessments has been below average.
Black line indicates sum where there are the same number of assessments across years.
Risks: Ecosystem productivity All regions
Fluctuating environmental conditions and prey for forage species affect both abundance and energy content. Energy content varies by season, and has changed over time most dramatically for Atlantic herring
Risks: Ecosystem structure and habitat: new diet based forage fish index, new diversity trends
Mid Atlantic forage index
Habitat model-based species richness by EPU
Implications: forage, including species not well sampled by bottom trawls, has been fluctuating over time. Richness calculated for the most common species suggests shifts away from the Mid Atlantic towards Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine.
Risks: Ecosystem structure All regions
Indicators: distribution shifts, diversity (previous sections) predator status and trends here
No trend in aggregate sharks
- No obvious increase in shark populations
- Most highly migratory fish predators are not depleted:
- 10 above B target
- 7 above B limit but below B target
- 2 below B limit
HMS populations mainly at or above target
Implications: Climate change and managed species Risk elements unchanged, new info:
Climate: 6 low, 3 low-mod, 4 mod-high, 1 high risk
Multiple drivers with different impacts by species
- Seasonal estuarine conditions affect life stages of striped bass, blue crabs, summer flounder, black sea bass differently
- Chesapeake suitable habitat for juvenile summer flounder growth has declined by 50% or more
- Climate change is expected to continue impacting habitat function and use for multiple species
- Habitat improving in some areas (tidal fresh SAV, oyster reefs), but eelgrass declining
- Ocean acidification impact on commercial species
- Scallops and longfin squid in Long Island Sound and off New Jersey have experienced low aragonite
- Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat
- Lab work identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth
- Warm core rings important to Illex availability.
- Fishing effort concentrates on the eastern edge of warm core rings, where upwelling and enhanced productivity ocurr.
- Fuel cost, plentiful longfin, and fewer warm core rings near the shelf led to lower Illex catch in 2022.
DistShift: 2 low, 9 mod-high, 3 high risk species
Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.
New Indicator: protected species shifts
Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic Element: OceanUse
Indicators: development timeline, fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas
Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species?
Update: ABC decisions with environmentally driven recruitment
Do historical summer flounder recruitment dynamics demonstrate patterns of environmental effects?
How to develop alternative relationships between environmental drivers and recruitment for summer flounder and other species? Gaussian, sigmoidal, none
Work to continue integrating theoretical responses with summer flounder operating model, and harvest control rules representing Councils across the US.
New project: Alternative stock performance metrics considering current conditions
How well do we play the hand we have been dealt?
Basic idea: compare observed quantities to optimal values GIVEN the recent history of stock
- Recasts stock assessment outputs into a simple time series of ratios
- Reduces over confidence in management skill when realized recruitment is high
- Reduces over reaction when realized recruitment is low
Summer flounder example:
- Major gains in rebuilding since 1990 but most of this was due to recruitments higher than most recent years.
- Rel SSB near one since 2005.
- Relative catch has oscillated since 1990 and only recently approached optimal
Update: Ecosystem overfishing indicators
Reviewed new information and agreed with proposals:
- Updated data inputs (menhaden)
- Discard estimation still in progress
- Comparisons of data sources
- Calculate new thresholds using regional ecosystem productivity
- Simulation test thresholds within ecosystem model Atlantis
Previous SSC discussion:
- Thresholds define a "safe operating space"
- Define the bounds where fishing causes poor system performance
- Identify tradeoffs across species within the safe zone
- Provide advice on options to correct ecosystem overfishing
- Use social benefits to measure outcomes
What information would be most useful in decision making?
Declining commercial and recreational landings can be driven by many interacting factors, including combinations of ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions, and environmental change. While we cannot evaluate all possible drivers at present, here we evaluate the extent to which ecosystem overfishing (total landings exceeding ecosystem productive capacity), stock status, and system biomass trends may play a role.
Update: Index Numbers for ecosystem performance
Useful way to synthesize information
- Integrates separate indicators into overall performance indicator
- Outputs linked to current management objectives
- Internal weighting using Data Envelopment Analysis
- Can compare to any reference year
- Identify outputs of interest with the Council
- Identify linked environmental inputs
Reviewed results from previous recommendation:
- Develop models for separate objectives
- Seafood production
- Recreational opportunities
- Ecosystem conditions
What information would be most useful in decision making?
More information at the species level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)
Bluefish ESP reviewed December 2022
Reviewers commented that it was the most complete treatment of a stock assessment "ecosystem ToR" they had seen, and formed a good basis for integrating further ecosystem information into the stock assessment in the future.
The full ESP document is available as a working paper from the stock assessment data portal
Discuss use of summary table in OFL CV or other decisions?