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The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

Mid-Atlantic Risk Assessment
What is it and how was it developed?

MAFMC Ecosystem and Ocean Planning Committee and AP Meeting
30 November 2022

Sarah Gaichas and Geret DePiper, NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center
Brandon Muffley, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council

1 / 15

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment and the MAFMC Ecosystem Approach

Diverse stakeholders agreed that an ecosystem approach was necessary. Developing and implementing EAFM is done in collaboration between managers, stakeholders, and scientists. https://www.mafmc.org/eafm

IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework with full details in speaker notes

  • Direct link between ecosystem reporting and risk assessment
  • Conceptual model links across risk elements for fisheries, species
  • Management strategy evaluation includes key risks
2 / 15

The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

2016: Illustrating the potential use of the framework

Example risk assessment table with species in rows and risk elements in columns with green cells indicating low risks, yellow and orange cells indicating moderate risks, and red cells indicatig high risk

Risk assessment highlights prority species/issues for more detailed evaluation

A conceptual model maps out key interactions for high risk fisheries, specifies quantitative management strategy evaluation

3 / 15

Quoted from Gaichas et al 2016 For this example, the existing Mid Atlantic food web model is used to define key species interactions for each managed species, habitat expertise is needed to link habitats to species, physical oceanographic and climate expertise is needed to link key climate drivers to habitats, and the expertise of fishermen, economists and other social scientists, and fishery managers is needed to link fish with fisheries and objectives for human well-being. The key link between fisheries and human well being objectives is identified as the system of regulatory allocations of total allowable catch between states along the Mid Atlantic coast. The interaction between this allocation system (based on historical catch) and climate-driven distribution shifts of the managed species has created considerable difficulty in this region. This conceptual model clearly connects climate considerations to management, as well as habitat considerations of concern to the Council but outside Council jurisdiction (water quality in coastal estuaries).

Key Definitions

Risk Elements: what are we measuring?

Risk Definition: why are we measuring it?

Indicator: how are we measuring it?

Risk Ranking Criteria: what is the risk?

4 / 15

2017: Iterative development of the risk assessment: Ecosystem level risk elements

Example risk assessment table with species in rows and risk elements in columns with green cells indicating low risks, yellow and orange cells indicating moderate risks, and red cells indicatig high risk

  • Council staff and scientists create examples based on Council input

    ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ...

  • Council discusses, clarifies, revises with public input

Element Definition Indicators
Economic
Commercial Revenue Risk of not maximizing fishery value Revenue in aggregate
Recreational Angler Days/Trips Risk of not maximizing fishery value Numbers of anglers and trips in aggregate
Commercial Fishery Resilience (Revenue Diversity) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience Species diversity of revenue
Commercial Fishery Resilience (Shoreside Support) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to shoreside support infrastructure Number of shoreside support businesses
Social
Fleet Resilience Risk of reduced fishery resilience Number of fleets, fleet diversity
Social-Cultural Risk of reduced community resilience Community vulnerability, fishery engagement and reliance
Food Production
Commercial Risk of not optimizing seafood production Seafood landings in aggregate
Recreational Risk of not maintaining personal food production Recreational landings in aggregate
5 / 15

Species level risk elements

Element Definition Indicators
Ecological
Assessment performance Risk of not achieving OY due to analytical limitations Current assessment method/data quality
F status Risk of not achieving OY due to overfishing Current F relative to reference F from assessment
B status Risk of not achieving OY due to depleted stock Current B relative to reference B from assessment
Food web (MAFMC Predator) Risk of not achieving OY due to MAFMC managed species interactions Diet composition, management measures
Food web (MAFMC Prey) Risk of not achieving OY due to MAFMC managed species interactions Diet composition, management measures
Food web (Protected Species Prey) Risk of not achieving protected species objectives due to species interactions Diet composition, management measures
Ecosystem productivity Risk of not achieving OY due to changing system productivity Four indicators, see text
Climate Risk of not achieving OY due to climate vulnerability Northeast Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Distribution shifts Risk of not achieving OY due to climate-driven distribution shifts Northeast Climate Vulnerability Assessment + 2 indicators
Estuarine habitat Risk of not achieving OY due to threats to estuarine/nursery habitat Enumerated threats + estuarine dependence
Offshore habitat Risk of not achieving OY due to changing offshore habitat Integrated habitat model index
6 / 15

Council-evaluated risk elements: Management

Element Definition Indicators
Management
Control Risk of not achieving OY due to inadequate control Catch compared to allocation
Interactions Risk of not achieving OY due to interactions with species managed by other entities Number and type of interactions with protected or non-MAFMC managed species, co-management
Other ocean uses Risk of not achieving OY due to other human uses Fishery overlap with energy/mining areas
Regulatory complexity Risk of not achieving compliance due to complexity Number of regulations by species
Discards Risk of not minimizing bycatch to extent practicable Standardized Bycatch Reporting
Allocation Risk of not achieving OY due to spatial mismatch of stocks and management Distribution shifts + number of interests
7 / 15

State of the Ecosystem → MAFMC Risk assessent example: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

Risk Level Definition
Low No trend and low variability in revenue
Low-Moderate Increasing or high variability in revenue
Moderate-High Significant long term revenue decrease
High Significant recent decrease in revenue

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species (red points in top plot)

Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species

8 / 15

State of the Ecosystem → MAFMC Risk assessent example: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

Risk Level Definition
Low No trend and low variability in revenue
Low-Moderate Increasing or high variability in revenue
Moderate-High Significant long term revenue decrease
High Significant recent decrease in revenue

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species (red points in top plot)

Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species

Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

SOE Implications: Recent change driven by benthos. Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:

  • Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification.
  • pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth
8 / 15

EAFM Risk Assessment: 2022 Update

Species level risk elements

Species Assess Fstatus Bstatus FW1Pred FW1Prey FW2Prey Climate DistShift EstHabitat
Ocean Quahog lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest highest modhigh lowest
Surfclam lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh modhigh lowest
Summer flounder lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Scup lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Black sea bass lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh modhigh highest
Atl. mackerel lowest highest highest lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh lowest
Chub mackerel highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowest na na lowest
Butterfish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest highest lowest
Longfin squid lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Shortfin squid lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest highest lowest
Golden tilefish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish highest highest modhigh lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest
Bluefish lowest lowest highest lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh highest
Spiny dogfish lowmod lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest highest lowest
Monkfish highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest
Unmanaged forage na na na lowest lowmod lowmod na na na
Deepsea corals na na na lowest lowest lowest na na na
  • Chub mackerel were added to the table

Ecosystem level risk elements

System EcoProd CommRev RecVal FishRes1 FishRes4 FleetDiv Social ComFood RecFood
Mid-Atlantic lowmod modhigh lowmod lowest modhigh lowest lowmod highest modhigh
  • Recreational value risk decreased from high to low-moderate

Species and Sector level risk elements

Species MgtControl TecInteract OceanUse RegComplex Discards Allocation
Ocean Quahog-C lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Surfclam-C lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Summer flounder-R modhigh lowest lowmod modhigh highest highest
Summer flounder-C lowmod modhigh lowmod modhigh modhigh lowest
Scup-R lowmod lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh highest
Scup-C lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh modhigh lowest
Black sea bass-R highest lowest modhigh modhigh highest highest
Black sea bass-C highest lowmod highest modhigh highest lowest
Atl. mackerel-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Atl. mackerel-C lowest lowmod modhigh highest lowmod highest
Butterfish-C lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh modhigh lowest
Longfin squid-C lowest modhigh highest modhigh highest lowest
Shortfin squid-C lowmod lowmod lowmod modhigh lowest highest
Golden tilefish-R na lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Golden tilefish-C lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish-C lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Bluefish-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Bluefish-C lowest lowest lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest
Spiny dogfish-R lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Spiny dogfish-C lowest modhigh modhigh modhigh lowmod lowest
Chub mackerel-C lowest lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest lowest
Unmanaged forage lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest lowest
Deepsea corals na na modhigh na na na
  • 4 Allocation risks decreased from high to low
  • 4 Regulatory complexity risks decreased, 2 increased
  • Management control risk increased for blueline tilefish fisheries to low-moderate
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Changes: Recreational value decreased from high to low-mod Allocation risk decreased for 4 fisheries from high to low (intermediate rankings not applied) Black sea bass regulatory complexity risk decreased from highest to moderate-high

Potential new indicators from new SOE sections on climate risk, habitat vulnerability, offshore wind

More information on risks now availble

SOE Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate: warming and changing oceanography continue

  • Heat waves and Gulf Stream instability
  • Estuarine, coastal, and offshore habitats affected, with range of species responses
  • Below average summer 2021 phytoplankton
  • Multiple fish with poor condition, declining productivity

Other ocean uses: offshore wind development

  • Current revenue in proposed areas
    • 1-31% by port (some with EJ concerns)
    • 0-20% by managed species
  • Different development impacts for species preferring soft bottom vs. hard bottom
  • Overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, increased vessel strike and noise risks
  • Rapid buildout in patchwork of areas
  • Scientific survey mitigation required
10 / 15

More information on climate change and managed species

Climate: 6 low, 3 low-mod, 4 mod-high, 1 high risk

Multiple drivers with different impacts by species

  • Seasonal estuarine conditions affect life stages of striped bass, blue crabs, summer flounder, black sea bass differently
    • Chesapeake summer hypoxia, temperature better than in past years, but worse in fall
    • Habitat improving in some areas (tidal fresh SAV, oyster reefs), but eelgrass declining
  • Ocean acidification impact on vulnerable surfclams
    • Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat
    • Lab work identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth
  • Warm core rings important to Illex availability. Fishing effort concentrates on the eastern edge of warm core rings, where upwelling and enhanced productivity ocurr

DistShift: 2 low, 9 mod-high, 3 high risk species

Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.

black sea bass survey distribution change over time from 2018 SOE

11 / 15

More information at the species level: Ecosystem Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs)

GOA pcod ESP conceptual model

Pacific cod example from ASFC: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/alaska/2021-alaska-fisheries-science-center-year-review and https://apps-afsc.fisheries.noaa.gov/refm/docs/2021/GOApcod.pdf

12 / 15

Risk elements put aside in 2017

Element Definition Indicators
Put Aside
Population diversity Risk of not achieving OY due to reduced diversity Size composition, sex ratio, genetic diversity
Ecological diversity Risk of not achieving OY due to reduced diversity Fishery independent species diversity
Fishery Resilience (2) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to access to capital No current indicator available
Fishery Resilience (3) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to insurance availabilty No current indicator available
Fishery Resilience (5) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to access to emerging markets/opportunities Needs clarification
Commercial Employment Risk of not optimizing employment opportunities EOP Committee unconfident in Fisheries of US employment inicator
Recreational Employment Risk of not optimizing employment opportunities EOP Committee unconfident in Fisheries of US employment indicator
Seafood safety Risk of not maintaining market access, human health Number of public advisories by species
13 / 15

SSC Ecosystem Working Group

Objective: assist the Council in developing short term and long term objectives to advance the operational use of ecosystem information in management decisions

Outcomes for the Council:

  • An OFL CV process that makes better use of ecosystem information in determining the ABC
  • Evaluation of multiple ecosystem indicators and potential development of thresholds for use in a revised EAFM risk assessment and/or other Council processes
  • Increased range of opportunities for relevant ecosystem information to be considered in management decision processes
14 / 15

Food for thought

Update or add risk elements? (columns)

Update or refine risk definitions? (columns)

Update or add resources or fisheries? (rows)

Update or refine risk indicators?

Update or refine risk criteria?

Can we revise the risk assessment to work better within the Council's EAFM approach?

15 / 15

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment and the MAFMC Ecosystem Approach

Diverse stakeholders agreed that an ecosystem approach was necessary. Developing and implementing EAFM is done in collaboration between managers, stakeholders, and scientists. https://www.mafmc.org/eafm

IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework with full details in speaker notes

  • Direct link between ecosystem reporting and risk assessment
  • Conceptual model links across risk elements for fisheries, species
  • Management strategy evaluation includes key risks
2 / 15

The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

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