State of the Ecosystem: 2022 Overview

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# State of the Ecosystem: 2022 Overview
## 11 May 2022
### Kimberly Bastille1,2 Sarah Gaichas1, Sean Lucey1, Geret DePiper1, Kimberly Hyde1, Laurel Smith1, and Scott Large1 Northeast Fisheries Science Center1 Ocean Associates Inc.2

---

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# State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers using Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Approach (IEA)

.pull-left[
 
- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper, et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))

- Two annual reports evolving since 2016
    + Contextual information
    + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reprorts

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2020></a>([Bastille, et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop1*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](EDAB_images/iea-loop.png)
.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem: Report Structure
.pull-left[

1. Graphical summary
    + Page 1 report card re: objectives &rarr;
    + Page 2 risk summary bullets
    + Page 3 synthesis themes
1. Performance relative to management objectives
    - **What** does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - **Why** do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
1. Risks to meeting management objectives
    - Climate Change/Ecosystem Productivity
    - Other ocean uses: Offshore Wind Development
]

.pull-right[

<table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Example ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported here </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Provisioning and Cultural Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Days fished; recreational fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance status </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Supporting and Regulating Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, Zooplankton </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## Report card page 1 and 2

.pull-left[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 85%](EDAB_images/SOE-MA-final-03.23.22-no marks_Page_2.png)

]
]

.pull-right[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 summary table, 85%](EDAB_images/SOE-MA-final-03.23.22-no marks_Page_3.png)

]
]

---
## Graphical summary of ecosystem synthesis themes, page 4

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

* Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. 
* Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.  
* Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

.pull-left[

![:img](EDAB_images/SystemDrivers_v5.jpg)
]

.pull-right[
![:img](EDAB_images/RegimeShift_V5.jpg)
]

---
## Document Orientation

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Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](EDAB_images/EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online.  
]

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Key to figures
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="396" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

---
# Performance relative to management objectives

.center[
![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/5_FISHING.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/6_INDUSTRY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB, 25%](EDAB_images/18.MULTIPLE_SYSTEM_DRIVERS.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/22.SPIRITUAL_CULTURAL.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Protected species icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/16.PROTECTEDSPECIES.png)
]
---
## Objective: New England Seafood Production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

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Indicators: Commercial landings

.reduced_opacity[
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Key: Black = Landings of all species combined; Red = Landings of NEFMC managed species
]
]

Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change
]

.pull-right[
Indicators: Recreational harvest

*[US Seafood Industry and For-Hire
Sector Impacts from COVID-19: 2020 in Perspective](https://spo.nmfs.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/TM221.pdf)

]

---

## Objective: New England Commercial Profits ![:img mixed trends arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png)

Indicators: Revenue and Bennet Index of Price and Volume

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.contrib[
Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of NEFMC managed species
]
]
* Driven by single species.
* GB: Fluctuations associated with rotational management areas.
* GB: High revenue caused by high volume/price from scallops.
]

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.reduced_opacity[
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="576" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
* GOM: Total regional revenue high due to high lobster prices, despite lower volume.
]

---
## Objective: Mid-Atlantic Recreational Opportunities ![:img increasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/increase.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/above long term ave.png);  ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

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Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

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Implications:

* Increased angler trips in 2020 relative to previous years strongly influence the long term increase in recreational effort. Recreational effort (angler trips) has increased over the long term, with 2020 effort above the long-term average.

* Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.

* Driven by party/charter contraction (from a high of 24% of angler trips to 7% currently), and a shift toward shore based angling.

]

---
## Objective: New England Stability ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) Com ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png); Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/near long term average.png)

.pull-left[
**Fishery**  Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity

]

.pull-right[
**Ecological** Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Implications:  
* Commercial fishery diversity driven by small number of species
* Diminished capacity to respond to future fishing opportunities
* Recreational diversity due to species distributions and regulations
* Adult diversity in GOM suggests increase in warm-water species
]

???
* Overall stability in the fisheries and ecosystem components
* Increasing diversity in several indicators warrants continued monitoring

---
## Objective: Mid-Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability &emsp; 
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement and reliance 
.pull-left[
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[

]

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

---
## Objectives: Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 2%](EDAB_images/checked.png)

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Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch
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<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Currently meeting objectives

* The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

* The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population.
]

---
## Objectives: Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

* Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

* Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species.
]

---
# Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

.center[
![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 25%](EDAB_images/3_CLIMATE.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Wind icon made by EDAB, 25%](EDAB_images/24.WIND.png)
]

.center[
![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/13_FORAGEFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Apex predators icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/17.APEXPREDATORS.png)  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png) 
]
---
## Risks: Climate Change

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Indicators: MAB surface and bottom temperature

<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Indicators: MAB marine heatwaves

<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
---
## Risks: Climate change

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Indicators: ocean currents

]

.pull-right[

Indicator: warm core rings

.center[
![:img Warm core rings June 2021, 60%](EDAB_images/D_20210608-MUR-SST-WCR.PNG) 
]
]

---
## Risks: Climate change

.pull-left[

Indicator: cold pool indices

]
.pull-right[

Indicator: ocean acidifictaion

![:img Seasonal pH, 100%](EDAB_images/Saba_Fig_SOE_MAFMC - Grace Saba.png)
]

Implications: Changes in cold pool could have impacts on multiple managed species. Areas of lower pH are in known surfclam habitat.

---
## Risks: Climate change and estuarine habitat &emsp;

.pull-left[
Indicators: Chesapeake Bay temperature
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<!--
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-37-1.png" width="360" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-38-1.png" width="360" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
![:img 150%](EDAB_images/ches-bay-sst-1.png)-->
]

.pull-right[
Indicator: SAV trends in Chesapeake Bay
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="432" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Indicator: water quality attainment
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-40-1.png" width="432" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Indicators: chlorophyll, primary production, phytoplankton size class

.pull-left[
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[

Implications: increased production by smaller phytoplankton implies less efficient transfer of primary production to higher trophic levels.

]

---

## Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Implications: fluctuating environmental conditions and prey for forage species affect both abundance and energy content. Energy content varies by season, and has changed over time most dramatically for Atlantic herring

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity

.pull-left[
Indicator: fish condition

]

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Indicator: fish productivity anomaly
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-45-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

Implications: 
Most species in the MAB had below average or poor condition again in 2021. Preliminary results of synthetic analyses show that changes in temperature, zooplankton, fishing pressure, and population size influence the condition of different fish species.

---
## Risks: Ecosystem Structure

Indicator: species distribution

Implications: Species as a whole moving could mean new species interactions and potential for fishers.

---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure

Indicators: predator status and trends
.pull-left[

]

.pull-right[

<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-48-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
[HMS stock codes](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/atlantic-highly-migratory-species-stock-status.html)
]
]

Implications: No trend in aggregate sharks and HMS populations mainly at or above taget. Stable predator populations suggest stable predation pressure on managed species, but increasing seal populations may reflect increasing predation pressure.

---

## Risks: Habitat climate vulnerability

Indicators: climate sensitive species life stages mapped to climate vulnerable habitats

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---
## Risks: Offshore Wind Development

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Indicators: development timeline, fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20220511_SOE_seminar_Bastille_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-52-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

---

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development

.pull-left[
Implications:

*  Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region.

*  Development will affect species differently, negatively affecting species that prefer soft bottom habitat while potentially benefiting species that prefer hard structured habitat.

*  Up to 20% of annual commercial landings and revenue for Mid-Atlantic species occur in lease areas.

]

.pull-right[
<img src="EDAB_images/offshore_wind_timeline.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 61 contributors from 14 institutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Kimberly Bastille 
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
Andy Beet 
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) 
Joseph Caracappa 
Doug Christel (GARFO) 
Patricia Clay 
Lisa Colburn 
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Geret DePiper 
Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Michael Fogarty 
Paula Fratantoni 
Kevin Friedland 
Marjy Friedrichs (VIMS) 
Sarah Gaichas 
Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth) 
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Sean Hardison 
Kimberly Hyde 
John Kosik 
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)

]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Scott Large 
Andrew Lipsky 
Sean Lucey 
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Chris Melrose 
Shannon Meseck 
Ryan Morse 
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
Kimberly Murray 
Chris Orphanides 
Richard Pace 
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR)
Charles Perretti 
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
Vincent Saba 
Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
Dave Secor (CBL) 
Angela Silva 
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
Laurel Smith 
Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
John Walden 
Harvey Walsh 
Changhua Weng 
Mark Wuenschel

]
]

---
## References

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2020></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2020) (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).
]

## Additional resources

.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* Visualizations:
  * [New England Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_NE)
  * [New England Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_NE)
  * [New England Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_NE)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_MAB)
]
.pull-right[
* [SOE MAFMC 2022](https://doi.org/10.25923/5s5y-0h81)

* [SOE NEFMC 2022](https://doi.org/10.25923/ypv2-mw79)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [Draft indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <kimberly.bastille@noaa.gov>
]
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/SOE_feature_image.png")
background-size: 1200px
background-position: center

.right[
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
# Thank you!

# Questions?
]