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State of the Ecosystem: 2021 Overview

OneNOAA Seminar 04 May 2021

Kimberly Bastille1,2

Sarah Gaichas1, Sean Lucey1,
Geret DePiper1, Kimberly Hyde1, and Scott Large1


Northeast Fisheries Science Center1
Ocean Associates Inc.2

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers using Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Approach (IEA)


  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)

    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Contextual information
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reprorts

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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State of the Ecosystem: Updated structure

2020 Report

  1. Summary 2 pager
  2. Human dimensions
  3. Protected species
  4. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)
  5. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity

2021 Report

  1. Graphical summary
    • Page 1 report card re: objectives →
    • Page 2 risk summary bullets
    • Page 3 synthesis themes
  2. Performance relative to management objectives
  3. Risks to meeting management objectives
Example ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives
Objective Categories Indicators reported here
Provisioning and Cultural Services
Seafood Production Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Days fished; recreational fleet diversity
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem)
Social & Cultural Community engagement/reliance status
Protected Species Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities
Supporting and Regulating Services
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, Zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
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Report card page 1 and 2

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table

State of the Ecosystem page 2 summary table

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Risk summary bullets page 3

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table

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Graphical summary of ecosystem synthesis themes, page 4

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

  • Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways.
  • Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to regime shifts — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.
  • Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

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Document Orientation

Spatial scale NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

A glossary of terms, detailed technical methods documentation and indicator data are available online.

Key to figures

Trends assessed only for 30+ years: more information

Orange line = significant increase

Purple line = significant decrease

No color line = not significant or < 30 years

Grey background = last 10 years

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Performance relative to management objectives

Fishing icon made by EDAB       Fishing industry icon made by EDAB       Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB       Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB       Protected species icon made by EDAB

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Objective: Seafood production decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon Mid-Atlantic

Indicators: Commercial and Recreational Landings

  • Surfclams/Ocean quahogs driving decline
  • Likely market driven

Key: Black = Total Landings;

Red = Landings of MAFMC managed species



  • Multiple Drivers of recreational decline - Shark management and possibly survey methodology change

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Objective: Commercial Profits mixed trends arrow icon New England

Indicators: Revenue and Bennet Index of Price and Volume

Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined;

Red = Revenue of NEFMC managed species

  • Driven by single species.
  • GB: Fluctuations associated with rotational management areas.
  • GB: High revenue caused by high volume/price from scallops.

  • GOM: Total regional revenue high due to high lobster prices, despite lower volume.
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Objective: Recreation no trend icon near average icon icon; decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon Mid-Atlantic

Indicators: Recreational effort and diversity



  • Absence of a long-term trend in recreational effort suggests relative stability in the overall number of recreational opportunities in the MAB.

  • Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.

  • Driven by party/charter contraction (from a high of 24% of angler trips to 7% currently), and a shift toward shore based angling.

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Objective: Stability decreasing arrow icon Com below average icon icon; Rec near average icon icon New England

Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

Fishery Indicators: recreational species catch diversity

  • commercial fishery diversity driven by small number of species
  • diminished capacity to respond to future fishing opportunities
  • recreational diversity due to species distributions and regulations
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Objective: Stability mixed trend icon above average icon icon New England

Ecological Indicators: zooplankton diversity

Ecological Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey

  • mixed trends need further monitoring


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Objective: Social & Cultural Mid-Atlantic

Indicators: Social vulnerability, fishery engagement and reliance

  • Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change.
  • Social vulnerability communities may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
  • May also be vulnerable to environmental justice issues.
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Objective: Protected species Maintain bycatch below thresholds mixed trend icon meeting objectives icon Northeast Shelf

Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch



  • Currently meeting objectives

  • The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

  • The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population.

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Objectives: Protected species Recover endangered populations decreasing arrow icon below average icon icon Northeast Shelf

Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts



  • Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

  • Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species, harbor and gray seals.

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Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate icon made by EDAB       Wind icon made by EDAB

Hydrography icon made by EDAB       Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB       Forage fish icon made by EDAB       Apex predators icon made by EDAB       Other human uses icon made by EDAB

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Risks: Climate change

Indicators: sea surface temperature and marine heatwaves

  • Georges Bank experienced the warmest event on record at 4.3 degrees above average

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Risks: Climate change

Indicators: ocean currents and bottom temperatures

  • Gulf stream moving further north

  • Almost no cold Labrador slopewater entering the GOM
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Risks: Climate change

Indicators: cool pool area and ocean acidification

cold pool area

img ocean acidification

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Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Indicators: primary production and zooplankton

  • Increased production by smaller phytoplankton implies less efficient transfer of primary production to higher trophic levels.

  • Monitor implications of increasing gelatinous zooplankton and krill.

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Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Indicators: plankton-based forage anomaly and forage fish energy content

  • fluctuating environmental conditions and prey for forage species affect both abundance and energy content.
  • Energy content varies by season, and has changed over time most dramatically for Atlantic herring
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Risks: Ecosystem productivity

Indicators: fish condition

Fish condition links conceptual model


Preliminary results:
  • Multiple, different condition drivers by species

Mid-Atlantic Bight Fish condition figure from 2020 SOE

  • Acadian redfish, butterfish and winter flounder more affected by fishing pressure and stock size
  • Weakfish, windowpane flounder, and American plaice more affected by local bottom temperatures and zooplankton
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Risks: Habitat climate vulnerability

Indicators: climate sensitive species life stages mapped to climate vulnerable habitats









Habitat tables

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Risks: Offshore Wind Development

Indicators: development timeline, revenue in lease
areas, survey overlap (full map)

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Risks: Offshore Wind Development

  • Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region

  • 2-24% of total average revenue for major Mid-Atlantic commercial species in lease areas could be displaced if all sites are developed. Displaced fishing effort can alter fishing methods, which can in turn change habitat, species (managed and protected), and fleet interactions.

  • Right whales may be displaced, and altered local oceanography could affect distribution of their zooplankton prey.

  • Scientific data collection surveys for ocean and ecosystem conditions, fish, and protected species will be altered, potentially increasing uncertainty for management decision making.

Proposed wind areas in Southern New England

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SOE in action

How is this being used to inform management?



  • Feedback from FMCs

  • Improvements for next year

    • Push to operationalize SOE
    • Standing up a subgroup

  • MAFMC risk assessment

IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks
The IEA Loop1

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.


Risk Level Definition
Low No trend and low variability in revenue
Low-Moderate Increasing or high variability in revenue
Moderate-High Significant long term revenue decrease
High Significant recent decrease in revenue

Key: Black = Total Landings;

Red = Landings of MAFMC managed species

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species

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Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 52 contributors from 10 institutions

Andy Beet
Kimberly Bastille
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Joseph Caracappa
Doug Christel (GARFO)
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Geret DePiper
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Sarah Gaichas
Ben Galuardi (GARFO)
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
John Kocik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)

Scott Large
Andrew Lipsky
Sean Lucey
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Chris Melrose
Shannon Meseck
Ryan Morse
Kimberly Murray
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Charles Perretti
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Grace Saba (Rutgers)
Vincent Saba
Chris Schillaci (GARFO)
Angela Silva
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)
Laurel Smith
Talya tenBrink (GARFO)
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Changhua Weng
Mark Wuenschel

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References

Bastille, K. et al. (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

DePiper, G. S. et al. (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsx038. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701 (visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

Additional resources

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Thank you!

Questions?

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers using Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Approach (IEA)


  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)

    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Contextual information
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reprorts

  • Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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