State of the Ecosystem and EAFM Risk Assessment: Mid-Atlantic

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# State of the Ecosystem and EAFM Risk Assessment: Mid-Atlantic
## MAFMC 07 April 2021
### Sarah Gaichas Northeast Fisheries Science Center Many thanks to: Kimberly Bastille, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, and all SOE contributors; Brandon Muffley and all MAFMC Staff for Risk Assessment updates

---

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# State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
## Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

.pull-left[

- Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives <a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper, et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
 + Contextual information
 + Report evolving since 2016
 + Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reports

- Open science emphasis <a name=cite-bastille_improving_2020></a>([Bastille, et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))

- Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process <a name=cite-muffley_there_2020></a>([Muffley, et al., 2020](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
 
]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop1*
![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](EDAB_images/iea-loop.png)

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]
???

---
## State of the Ecosystem: Updated structure
.pull-left[

## 2020 Report
1. Summary 2 pager
1. Human dimensions
1. Protected species
1. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)
1. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity

## 2021 Report
1. Graphical summary
    + Page 1 report card re: objectives &rarr;
    + Page 2 risk summary bullets
    + Page 3 synthesis themes
1. Performance relative to management objectives
1. Risks to meeting management objectives

]

.pull-right[

<table class="table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Ecosystem-scale fishery management objectives</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators reported here </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Provisioning and Cultural Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings; commercial total and by feeding guild; recreational harvest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue decomposed to price and volume </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Days fished; recreational fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and ecosystem) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community engagement/reliance status </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Protected Species </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bycatch; population (adult and juvenile) numbers, mortalities </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Supporting and Regulating Services</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, Zooplankton </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## 2021 Request tracking memo

<table class="table" style="font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Request </th>
 <th style="text-align:right;font-weight: bold;"> Year </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Source </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Progress </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Memo Section </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Report card and summary visualizations </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Both Councils </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE new report card table and summary visualizaitions of synthesis themes </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 1 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Ecosystem Overfishing indicators (Link and Watson, 2019) </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Both Councils </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE two ecosystem overfishing indicators included </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 2 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Primary production required, interpretation of decline? </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Both Councils </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE indicator reworked along with Link and Watson metrics </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 3 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Climate Change context </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE reorganized; Risks section added emphasizing climate change </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 4 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Clarify language (e.g., primary production required) </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Both Councils </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE edited by Research Communications Branch; glossary included </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 5 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Copy Editing </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Both Councils </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE edited by Research Communications Branch </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 6 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Ocean Acidification </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE indicator added with in-situ data linked to preliminary lab work on thresholds </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 7 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Include examples of High/Low engaged ports </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE indicator reworked to show individual ports and social vulnerability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 8 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Expand wind lease area and habitat overlap </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE indicator expanded to rank species with habitat in wind lease areas by landings in wind lease areas </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 9 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Expand cold pool index </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE indicator expanded with modeled data to include area and other attributes </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 10 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Seperate Bigelow/Albatross catch diversity metric </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE indicator added </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 11 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Shark abundance and catch indicators </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE multiple shark indicators added </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 12 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Uncertainty estimates </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE included for subset of indicators </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 13 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Bycatch index </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE added seal bycatch indicator, retained harbor porpoise indicator </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 14 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Marine Mammal consumption </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE added discussion of seal diets, memo no new consumption ests since Smith et al but could be in the future once work is complete </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 15 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Estuarine Water Quality </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE Chesapeake indicators updated and expanded </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 16 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Forage abundance </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> SOE forage anomaly indicator added </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 17 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Linking Condition </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; not ready for 2021 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 18 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Avg weight of diet components by feeding group </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Internal </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; part of fish condition </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 19 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; stomach fullness analysis started--species level </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 20 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity) </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; project with R Mann student to start 2021 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 21 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Cumulative weather index </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; data gathered for prototype </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 22 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Management complexity </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; student work needs further analysis, no further work in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 23 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> VAST and uncertainty </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Both Councils </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; not ready for 2021 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 24 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Seal index </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> in progress; not ready for 2021 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 25 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Incorporate social sciences survey from council </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 26 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Young of Year index from multiple surveys </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 27 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Biomass of spp not included in BTS </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 28 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> MAFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 29 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Inflection points for indicators </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2019 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> Both Councils </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 30 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 31 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Breakpoints </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 32 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 9.5cm; "> Re-evaluate EPUs </td>
 <td style="text-align:right;width: 1cm; "> 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2.5cm; "> NEFMC </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 13.5cm; "> unable to start in 2020 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 1.5cm; "> 33 </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## State of the Ecosystem summary

.pull-left[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary table, 90%](EDAB_images/SOE-MAFMC-2021-plusgraphicsummary_Page_02.png)
]
]

.pull-right[
.center[
![:img State of the Ecosystem page 2 risk bullets, 90%](EDAB_images/SOE-MAFMC-2021-plusgraphicsummary_Page_03.png)
]
]

---
## Ecosystem synthesis themes

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management

* Societal, biological, physical and chemical factors comprise the **multiple system drivers** that influence marine ecosystems through a variety of different pathways. 
* Changes in the multiple drivers can lead to **regime shifts** — large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem.  
* Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in **ecosystem reorganization** as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment.

.pull-left[

![:img](EDAB_images/SystemDrivers_v5.jpg)
]

.pull-right[
![:img](EDAB_images/RegimeShift_V5.jpg)
]

---
## Document Orientation

.pull-left[
Spatial scale
![:img NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass, 80%](EDAB_images/EPU_Designations_Map.jpg)

A [glossary of terms](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/glossary.html) (Memo 5), detailed [technical methods documentation](https://NOAA-EDAB.github.io/tech-doc) and [indicator data](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata) are available online.  
]

.pull-right[
Key to figures
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="396" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Trends assessed only for 30+ years: [more information](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/trend-analysis.html)

Orange line = significant increase
Purple line = significant decrease
No color line = not significant or < 30 years
Grey background = last 10 years
]
]

---
## Revised structure to address Council requests and improve synthesis

.pull-left[
* Performance relative to management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Objectives
    - Seafood production
    - Profits
    - Recreational opportunities
    - Stability
    - Social and cultural
    - Protected species
]

.pull-right[
* Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Risk categories
    - Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification
        - Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis)
        - Productivity changes (system and fish)
        - Species interaction changes
        - Community structure changes
    - Other ocean uses
        - Offshore wind development
]

---
## State of the Ecosystem &rarr; Risk assessent example: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

.table[
.pull-left[

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> No trend and low variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Increasing or high variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant long term revenue decrease </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 20em; "> Significant recent decrease in revenue </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species (red points in top plot)

]
]
.pull-right[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species

]

## Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

---
# Performance relative to management objectives

.center[
![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/5_FISHING.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/6_INDUSTRY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB, 25%](EDAB_images/18.MULTIPLE_SYSTEM_DRIVERS.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/22.SPIRITUAL_CULTURAL.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Protected species icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/16.PROTECTEDSPECIES.png)
]

---
## Objective: Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) &emsp; Risk elements: ComFood and RecFood, unchanged

.pull-left[
Indicators: Commercial and recreational landings

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Key: Black = Landings of all species combined; Red = Landings of MAFMC managed species
]

]

.pull-right[
Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions, and environment

Is biomass driving?
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" width="576" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Key: Black = NEFSC survey; Red = NEAMAP survey
]
]

---
## Landings drivers: Ecosystem or stock production? &emsp; Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus mostly unchanged
.pull-left[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.contrib[
Key: 
Orange background = Tipping point overfishing threshold, Link and Watson 2019 
Green background = Optimal range, Link and Watson 2019
]

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

One change: Butterfish Bstatus

]

---
## Implications: Seafood Production
.pull-left[

.contrib[
Key: Black = Landings of all species combined; Red = Landings of MAFMC managed species
]
]

.pull-right[
Drivers:
* market dynamics affecting commercial landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs

* other drivers affecting recreational landings: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="360" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
Monitor: 
* climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions 
* ecosystem composition and production changes 
* fishing engagement

]

???
Because ecosystem overfishing seems unlikely, stock status is mostly acceptable, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, the decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as quotas are not binding for these species.

Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.

---
## Objective: Commercial Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) &emsp; Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

.pull-left[
Indicator: Commercial Revenue 
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="360" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.contrib[
Key: Black = Revenue of all species combined; Red = Revenue of MAFMC managed species
]
Recent change driven by benthos 
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers: 
- Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. 
- pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth
]
.pull-right[
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="540" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

???
Recent declines in prices contributed to falling revenue as quantities landed did not increase enough to counteract declining prices.

---
## Objective: Recreational opportunities ![:img no trend icon, 2%](EDAB_images/no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 1%](EDAB_images/near long term average.png); ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) &emsp; Risk element: RecValue, unchanged; add diversity?
.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications

* Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.

* Driven by party/charter contraction (from a high of 24% of angler trips to 7% currently), and a shift toward shore based angling.

* Absence of a long-term trend in recreational effort suggests relative stability in the overall number of recreational opportunities in the MAB.

* Memo 22-23, Cumulative weather index and management complexity drivers under construction
]

???
Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.

---
## Objective: Stability ![:img no trend icon, 2%](EDAB_images/no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 1%](EDAB_images/near long term average.png) &emsp; Risk elements: FishRes1 and FleetDiv, unchanged, add recreational elements?

.pull-left[
*Fishery*  Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

]

.pull-right[
*Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]
---
## Objective: Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 1%](EDAB_images/near long term average.png) &emsp; Risk element: ecological diversity put aside, new indices

.pull-left[
*Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-27-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[
*Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey 
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

Implications:  
* stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities  
* recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time  
* monitor zooplankton diversity driven by declining dominant species

]
???
While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring.

---
## Objective: Fishing community status &emsp; Risk element: Social, unchanged; new community level info
Indicators: Social vulnerability, fishery engagement and reliance 
.pull-left[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
Mid-Atlantic recreational fishing communities
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
Mid-Atlantic commercial fishing communities
]

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. These indicators may also point to communities that are vulnerable to environmental justice issues.
---
## Objectives: Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 2%](EDAB_images/checked.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch (Memo 14)
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-32-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-33-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Currently meeting objectives

* Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged

* The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

* The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).
]

---
## Objectives: Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-34-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-35-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

* Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species, harbor and gray seals.

* Risk elements: 
 - FW2Prey evaluated by species: 13 low, 3 low-mod risk, unchanged 
 - TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector, unchanged
]

---
# Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

.center[
![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 25%](EDAB_images/3_CLIMATE.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Wind icon made by EDAB, 25%](EDAB_images/24.WIND.png)
]

.center[
![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/13_FORAGEFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Apex predators icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/17.APEXPREDATORS.png)  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](EDAB_images/8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png) 
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/SST2020seasonalmaps.png")
background-size: 700px
background-position: right top

## Risks: Climate change, multiple elements
.pull-left[
Indicators: ocean currents, bottom and surface temperature, marine heatwaves
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="288" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-38-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[

&nbsp;  
&nbsp;  
&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
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&nbsp;  
&nbsp; 
&nbsp;  
&nbsp;  
&nbsp; 
&nbsp;  
&nbsp; 
&nbsp;  
&nbsp;  
&nbsp; 
&nbsp;  
&nbsp;

]
???
A marine heatwave is a warming event that lasts for five or more days with sea surface temperatures above the 90th percentile of the historical daily climatology (1982-2011). 
---
## Risks: Climate change &emsp; Risk element: EstHabitat 10 low, 4 high risk species, unchanged, new indices

Indicators: Estuarine conditions, Chesapeake Bay
.pull-left[
.center[
![:img Chesapeake Bay Water Temperature 2020 Anomalies from satellite, 75%](EDAB_images/ches-temp-temp.png)
]
]
.pull-right[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-40-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
## Risks: Climate change &emsp; Risk element: offshore habitat put aside, new indices
.pull-left[
Indicator: cold pool area
![:img cold pool area](EDAB_images/cold_pool_area.png)
]
.pull-right[
Indicator: acidification
![:img Seasonal pH](EDAB_images/Seasonal pH on MAB shelf - Grace Saba.jpg)
]

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity &emsp; Risk element: EcoProd, unchanged, new indices

Indicators: primary production, zooplankton

.pull-left[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="576" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-43-1.png" width="576" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-44-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
Implications: increased production by smaller phytoplankton implies less efficient transfer of primary production to higher trophic levels. Monitor implications of increasing gelatinous zooplankton and krill.
]

???
Increased temperatures, as reported above, can increase the rate of photosynthesis by phytoplankton (i.e. primary productivity). Annual primary production has increased over time, primarily driven by increased productivity in the summer months.

Larger zooplankton (i.e. *Calanus finmarchicus*) had above average abundance in 2018-2019, while smaller-bodied copepods were near or below average.

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity &emsp; Risk element: EcoProd, unchanged, new indices

Indicators: plankton-based forage anomaly and forage fish energy content (Memo 17)

.pull-left-30[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-45-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.pull-right-70[
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-46-1.png" width="576" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

Implications: fluctuating environmental conditions and prey for forage species affect both abundance and energy content. Energy content varies by season, and has changed over time most dramatically for Atlantic herring

---
## Risks: Ecosystem productivity &emsp; Risk element: EcoProd, unchanged, new analyses

Indicators: fish condition (Memo 18)
.pull-left[
![:img Fish condition figure from 2020 SOE](EDAB_images/MABcondition_2019_viridis_final.jpg)
Preliminary results:  
* Multiple, different condition drivers by species  
* Acadian redfish, butterfish and winter flounder more affected by fishing pressure and stock size  
* Weakfish, windowpane flounder, and American plaice more affected by local bottom temperatures and zooplankton   
]
.pull-right[
![:img Fish condition links conceptual model](EDAB_images/SOEconditionfactorlinks_keycolor_price.png)
]

???
See memo for preliminary results
These relationships can potentially provide insights on which species may be more vulnerable to environmental changes such as climate change, as well as what biomass changes may be expected from certain species given current environmental conditions
---
## Risks: Ecosystem structure &emsp; Risk element: DistShift, unchanged, add elements?

Indicators: distribution shifts (slide 7), diversity (slide 16), predators (Memo 12, 15, 25)
.pull-left[
*No trend in aggregate sharks*
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-47-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]
.pull-right[
*Gray seals increasing*
* Breeding season ~ 27,000 US gray seals, Canada's population ~ 425,000 (2016) 
* Canada's population increasing at ~ 4% per year
* U.S. pupping sites increased from 1 (1988) to 9 (2019)
* Harbor and gray seals are generalist predators that consume more than 30 different prey species: red, white and silver hake, sand lance, yellowtail flounder, four-spotted flounder, Gulf-stream flounder, haddock, herring, redfish, and squids.

Implications: stable predator populations suggest stable predation pressure on managed species, but increasing predator populations may reflect increasing predation pressure.
]

???
A survey conducted in 2021 in both countries will provide updated estimates of abundance.

---
## Risks: Habitat climate vulnerability &emsp; New, opportunity to refine habitat risks

Indicators: climate sensitive species life stages mapped to climate vulnerable habitats

*See EAFM risk assessment for example species narratives* 
<div id="htmlwidget-eb30eb59690011454e7f" style="width:100%;height:226.8px;" class="widgetframe html-widget"></div>
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---
## Implications: Climate change and managed species &emsp; Risk elements unchanged, new info:
.pull-left[
Climate: 6 low, 3 low-mod, 4 mod-high, 1 high risk

*Multiple drivers with different impacts by species*    
* Chesapeake Bay warm winter, low freshwater flow  
    - Striped bass poor recruitment observed  
        - plankton prey too early?  
        - poor plankton transport?  
    - Blue crab better survival over winter  
    
* Ocean acidification impact on shellfish growth  
    - Surfclams vulnerable to increased temperature and acidification  
    - Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat  
    - Lab work in progress identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth: *approaching threshold*

]

.pull-right[
DistShift: 2 low, 9 mod-high, 3 high risk species

Shifting species distributions alter both species interactions, fishery interactions, and expected management outcomes from spatial allocations and bycatch measures based on historical fish and protected species distributions.  
.center[
![:img black sea bass survey distribution change over time from 2018 SOE, 65%](EDAB_images/black_sea_bass_kde.png)
]
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/SurveyMap202133.png")
background-size: 700px
background-position: right

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development &emsp; Element: OceanUse
.pull-left[
Indicators: development timeline, revenue in lease areas, survey overlap ([full map](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_MAB#Shelfwide_Indicators))
![:img Rate and extend of offshore wind devevelopment by project end year, 90%](EDAB_images/wind-figure-1yaxis.png)
<img src="20210407_MAFMC_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-49-1.png" width="504" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.pull-right[
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/MidAtlantic_2021128-01.jpg")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

## Risks: Offshore Wind Development &emsp; Element: OceanUse
.pull-left[
Implications: 
* Current plans for rapid buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region

* 2-24% of total average revenue for major Mid-Atlantic commercial species in lease areas could be displaced if all sites are developed. Displaced fishing effort can alter fishing methods, which can in turn change habitat, species (managed and protected), and fleet interactions.

* Right whales may be displaced, and altered local oceanography could affect distribution of their zooplankton prey.

* Scientific data collection surveys for ocean and ecosystem conditions, fish, and protected species will be altered, potentially increasing uncertainty for management decision making. 
]
.pull-right[]

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2021 Update

.pull-left[
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Pred </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Butterfish B status risk increased from lowest to low-mod (below Bmsy)
]

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommRev </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes4 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FleetDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

.pull-right[ 
*Species and Sector level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> MgtControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> TecInteract </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OceanUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Allocation risk decreased for 4 fisheries from high to low (intermediate rankings not applied) 
* Black sea bass regulatory complexity risk decreased from highest to mod-high 
]
]

???
Changes:
Butterfish B status risk increased from lowest to low-mod (below Bmsy)
Allocation risk decreased for 4 fisheries from high to low (intermediate rankings not applied)
Black sea bass regulatory complexity risk decreased from highest to moderate-high

Potential new indicators from new SOE sections on climate risk, habitat vulnerability, offshore wind

Habitat vulnerability analysis writeups--comments?

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 52 contributors from 10 institutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Andy Beet 
Kimberly Bastille 
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Joseph Caracappa 
Doug Christel (GARFO) 
Patricia Clay 
Lisa Colburn 
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Geret DePiper 
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Michael Fogarty 
Paula Fratantoni 
Kevin Friedland 
Sarah Gaichas 
Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth) 
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Sean Hardison 
Kimberly Hyde 
John Kosik 
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Scott Large 
Andrew Lipsky 
Sean Lucey
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Chris Melrose 
Shannon Meseck 
Ryan Morse 
Kimberly Murray 
Chris Orphanides 
Richard Pace 
Charles Perretti 
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
Vincent Saba 
Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
Angela Silva 
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
Laurel Smith 
Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
John Walden 
Harvey Walsh 
Changhua Weng 
Mark Wuenschel

]
]

---
## References

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2020></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2020) (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

<a name=bib-muffley_there_2020></a>[Muffley, B. et
al.](#cite-muffley_there_2020) (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management".
In: _Coastal Management_ 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)
(visited on Dec. 09, 2020).
]

## Additional resources
.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* Visualizations:
  * [Mid-Atlantic Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna_MAB)
  * [Mid-Atlantic Lower trophic level indicators](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL_MAB)
]
.pull-right[
* [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [Draft indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov>
]
]

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/SOE-MAFMC-2021-plusgraphicsummary_Page_01.png")
background-size: 600px
background-position: bottom right

# Discussion
.pull-left[
1. Feedback on structure?
1. Feedback on synthesis themes? multiple drivers, regime shifts, system reorganization
1. Feedback on Memo points?
    - 1 to 18 included in SOE
    - 19 to 25 in progress
    - 26 to 33 less progress
1. Prorities for 2022, risk assessment updates?

# Thank you!
]

???
SOE has been like an annual benchmark with new data and structure... hold pattern for a few years?