Indicator: Commercial landings
Indicators: Recreational harvest
Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change.
The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change.
Indicator: Stock status
Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target
Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role
Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC.
Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species.
Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends
Key: Black = NEFSC survey;
Red = NEAMAP survey
New species categories, more southern species in BenthivoresMonitor:
climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions
ecosystem composition and production changes
Because stock status is mostly acceptable, ABCs don't appear to be constraining for many stocks, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, the decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as quotas are not binding for these species.
Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.
Indicators: Commercial landings
Indicators: Recreational harvest
Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change
Although scallop decreases are partially explained by a decreased TAC, analyses suggest that the drop in landings is at least partially due to market disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we do not anticipate the long-term declining trend in landings to change.
Indicator: Stock status
Stocks below BMSY increased from 2023, stocks below ½ BMSY stayed the same. Management still likely playing large role in seafood declines
Indicator: Survey biomass
Biomass availability still seems unlikely driver
Drivers:
Monitor:
Link to Community Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators? community level landings climate vulnerability
Indicator: Commercial Revenue
Recent change driven by benthos
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices
Recent declines in prices contributed to falling revenue as quantities landed did not increase enough to counteract declining prices.
Indicator: Commercial Revenue
Both regions driven by single species
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices
Link to Community Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators? community level revenue climate vulnerability
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity
Implications
Adding 2023 data, recreational effort (angler trips) retains the long term increase.
The increasing long term trend changed the risk category for the RecValue element back to low-moderate (previously ranked low risk).
New risk element: Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.
Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.
Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity
Implications
Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity
Most recent fleet counts at low range of series
Fishery Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
Most recent near series low value.
Ecological Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (not updated)
Ecological Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey
Implications:
While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring.
Fishery Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity
Most recent around lowest points in series
Fishery Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
Most recent lowest point in series. Covid role?
Ecological Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (not updated)
Ecological Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey
## Error in nlme::gls(y ~ x + x2, data = data, correlation = nlme::corAR1(form = ~x), : ## false convergence (8)
Implications:
Traits
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement
Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement
Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement
Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement
Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.
Proportion of Mid-Atlantic communities at each revenue climate vulnerability level over time.
Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch
Implications:
Currently meeting objectives
Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged
The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.
The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts
Implications:
Signs the adult population stabilized 2020-2022
Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.
Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.
Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species.
NULL
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