State of the Ecosystem 2025 Performance Relative to Objectives

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# State of the Ecosystem 2025 Performance Relative to Objectives
]
.subtitle[
## SOE January Synthesis Meeting 22 January 2025
]

---

class: top, left

# 2025 Performance relative to management objectives

.center[
![:img Fishing icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//5_FISHING.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Fishing industry icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//6_INDUSTRY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Multiple drivers icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//18.MULTIPLE_SYSTEM_DRIVERS.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Spiritual cultural icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//22.SPIRITUAL_CULTURAL.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Protected species icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//16.PROTECTEDSPECIES.png)
]

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) &emsp; Risk elements: ComFood and RecFood, unchanged

.pull-left[
Indicator: Commercial landings

]

.pull-right[
Indicators: Recreational harvest
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="504" />

]

Multiple potential drivers of landings changes: ecosystem and stock production, management actions, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change.

???
The long-term declining trend in landings didn't change.
---
## Mid Atlantic Landings drivers: Stock status? TAC? &emsp; Risk elements: Fstatus, Bstatus, MgtControl

.pull-left[
Indicator: Stock status

]

.pull-right[

Indicators: Total ABC or ACL, and Realized catch relative to management target

.contrib[
Few managed species have binding limits; Management less likely playing a role
]
]

???
Stock status affects catch limits established by the Council, which in turn may affect landings trends. Summed across all MAFMC managed species, total Acceptable Biological Catch or Annual Catch Limits (ABC or ACL) have been relatively stable 2012-2020 (top). With the addition of blueline tilefish management in 2017, an additional ABC and ACL contribute to the total 2017-2020. Discounting blueline tilefish, the recent total ABC or ACL is lower relative to 2012-2013, with much of that decrease due to declining Atlantic mackerel ABC.

Nevertheless, the percentage caught for each stock’s ABC/ACL suggests that these catch limits are not generally constraining as most species are well below the 1/1 ratio (bottom). Therefore, stock status and associated management constraints are unlikely to be driving decreased landings for the majority of species.

---
## Implications: Mid Atlantic Seafood Production Drivers
.pull-left[

Biomass does not appear to drive landings trends

.contrib[
Key: Black = NEFSC survey; Red = NEAMAP survey
*New species categories, more southern species in Benthivores*
]

]

.pull-right[
.contrib[ 
* Declining aggregate planktivores, benthos?

* Recreational drivers differ: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor: 
* climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions

* ecosystem composition and production changes  
* fishing engagement  
]
]

???
Because stock status is mostly acceptable, ABCs don't appear to be constraining for many stocks, and aggregate biomass trends appear stable, the decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by market dynamics affecting the landings of surfclams and ocean quahogs, as quotas are not binding for these species.

Climate change also seems to be shifting the distribution of surfclams and ocean quahogs, resulting in areas with overlapping distributions and increased mixed landings. Given the regulations governing mixed landings, this could become problematic in the future and is currently being evaluated by the Council.

---
## Objective: New England Seafood production ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Commercial landings

]

.pull-right[
Indicators: Recreational harvest

]

Multiple drivers: ecosystem and stock production, management, market conditions (including COVID-19 disruptions), and environmental change

???
Although scallop decreases are partially explained by a decreased TAC, analyses suggest that the drop in landings is at least partially due to market disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, we do not anticipate the long-term declining trend in landings to change.

---
## New England Landings drivers: Stock status? Survey biomass?

.pull-left[
Indicator: Stock status

<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="540" />
.contrib[
Stocks below BMSY increased from 2023, stocks below ½ BMSY stayed the same. Management still likely playing large role in seafood declines
]

]

.pull-right[
Indicator: Survey biomass
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="576" />
.contrib[
Biomass availability still seems unlikely driver
]

]

---
## Implications: New England Seafood Production
.pull-left[
Drivers:
* decline in commercial landings is most likely driven by the requirement to rebuild individual stocks as well as market dynamics
* other drivers affecting recreational landings: shark fishery management, possibly survey methodology

Monitor: 
* climate risks including warming, ocean acidification, and shifting distributions  
* ecosystem composition and production changes  
* fishing engagement

]

.pull-right[

]

---
## Synthesis with new indicators

Link to Community Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators? community level landings climate vulnerability

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Commercial Profits ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png) &emsp; Risk element: CommRev, unchanged

.pull-left[
Indicator: Commercial Revenue

Recent change driven by benthos 
Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers: 
- Climate risk element: Surfclams and ocean quahogs are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. 
- pH in surfclam summer habitat is approaching, but not yet at, pH affecting surfclam growth
]

.pull-right[
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices

<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="360" />
]

???
Recent declines in prices contributed to falling revenue as quantities landed did not increase enough to counteract declining prices.

---
## Objective: New England Commercial Profits ![:img mixed trends arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png)

.pull-left[
Indicator: Commercial Revenue
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="540" />

Both regions driven by single species
* GOM high revenue despite low volume
* Fluctuations in GB due to rotational management

Monitor changes in climate and landings drivers:
* Sea scallops and lobsters are sensitive to ocean warming and acidification

]

.pull-right[
Indicator: Bennet--price and volume indices

<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="540" /><img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-2.png" width="540" />
]

---
## Synthesis with new indicators

Link to Community Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators? community level revenue climate vulnerability

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Recreational opportunities ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//above long term ave.png); ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png) Risk element: RecValue, decreased risk; add diversity?

.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="504" />

<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="504" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications

* Adding 2023 data, recreational effort (angler trips) retains the long term increase.

* The increasing long term trend changed the risk category for the RecValue element back to low-moderate (previously ranked low risk).

* *New risk element*: Decline in recreational fleet diversity suggests a potentially reduced range of opportunities.

* Driven by party/charter contraction and a shift toward shore based angling.

]

???
Changes in recreational fleet diversity can be considered when managers seek options to maintain recreational opportunities. Shore anglers will have access to different species than vessel-based anglers, and when the same species, typically smaller fish. Many states have developed shore-based regulations where the minimum size is lower than in other areas and sectors to maintain opportunities in the shore angling sector.

---
## Objective: New England Recreational opportunities ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 1%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/near long term average.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Recreational effort and fleet diversity 
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="504" />

<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="504" />
]

.pull-right[
Implications

* Absence of a long-term trend in recreational effort suggests relative stability in the overall number of recreational opportunities in New England

]
---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Fishery Stability ![:img no trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//no trend.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 1%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near long term average.png) &emsp; Risk elements: FishRes1 and FleetDiv, unchanged

.pull-left[
*Fishery*  Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-27-1.png" width="504" />
.contrib[
Most recent fleet counts at low range of series
]
]

.pull-right[
*Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-28-1.png" width="504" />
.contrib[
Most recent near series low value.
]
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="504" />

]
---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Ecological Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img near average icon icon, 1%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//near long term average.png) &emsp; Risk element: ecological diversity put aside, new indices

.pull-left[
*Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (*not updated*)
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="504" />

]

.pull-right[
*Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey 
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-32-1.png" width="504" />

Implications:  
* stable capacity to respond to the current range of commercial fishing opportunities  
* recreational catch diversity maintained by a different set of species over time  
* monitor zooplankton diversity driven by declining dominant species

]
???
While larval and adult fish diversity indices are stable, a few warm-southern larval species are becoming more dominant. Increasing zooplankton diversity is driven by declining dominance of an important species, which warrants continued monitoring.

---
## Objective: New England Fishery Stability ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/decrease.png) Com ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/below long term ave.png); Rec ![:img near average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/near long term average.png)

.pull-left[
*Fishery*  Indicators: Commercial fleet count, fleet diversity

<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-33-1.png" width="504" />
.contrib[
Most recent around lowest points in series
]
]

.pull-right[
*Fishery* Indicators: commercial species revenue diversity, recreational species catch diversity
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-34-1.png" width="504" />
.contrib[
Most recent lowest point in series. Covid role?
]

]

---
## Objective: New England Ecological Stability ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Mixed trends.png) ![:img above average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/above long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
*Ecological* Indicators: zooplankton and larval fish diversity (*not updated*)

]

.pull-right[
*Ecological* Indicator: expected number of species, NEFSC bottom trawl survey
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-38-1.png" width="504" />

```
## Error in nlme::gls(y ~ x + x2, data = data, correlation = nlme::corAR1(form = ~x),  : 
##   false convergence (8)
```

Implications:  
* Commercial fishery diversity driven by small number of species
* Diminished capacity to respond to future fishing opportunities
* Recreational diversity due to species distributions and regulations
* Adult diversity in GOM suggests increase in warm-water species
]

???
* Overall stability in the fisheries and ecosystem components
* Increasing diversity in several indicators warrants continued monitoring

---
## New Stability Indicators?

Traits

---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability &emsp; Risk element: Social
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement
.pull-left[
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="468" />

]

.pull-right[
![:img MA commercial](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/MA_com-BobbyMurphy_2025.png)

]

Implications: Highlighted communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When also experiencing environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change.

???

These plots provide a snapshot of the presence of environmental justice issues in the most highly engaged and most highly reliant commercial and recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic. These communities may be vulnerable to changes in fishing patterns due to regulations and/or climate change. When any of these communities are also experiencing social vulnerability including environmental justice issues, they may have lower ability to successfully respond to change. 
---
## Objective: Mid Atlantic Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability &emsp; Risk element: Social 
Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement 
.pull-left[
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="468" />

]

.pull-right[

![:img MA rec](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/MA_rec-BobbyMurphy_2025.png)
]

???

---
## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, commercial fishery engagement

.pull-left[
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-43-1.png" width="468" />

]

.pull-right[

![:img NE commercial](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/NE_com-BobbyMurphy_2025.png)
]
???

---
## Objective: New England Environmental Justice and Social Vulnerability

Indicators: Environmental justice vulnerability, recreational fishery engagement

.pull-left[
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-45-1.png" width="468" />

]

.pull-right[

![:img NE rec](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/NE_rec-BobbyMurphy_2025.png)
]

???

---
## Objective: Fishing Community Climate Vulnerability (new)

.pull-left[

<div class="figure">
<img src="20250122_SOEperformance_Gaichas_files/figure-html/commvulex-1.png" alt="Proportion of Mid-Atlantic communities at each revenue climate vulnerability level over time." width="432" />
Proportion of Mid-Atlantic communities at each revenue climate vulnerability level over time.
</div>

]

.pull-right[
![:img CCCVR map total vulnerability](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/NE_Total_Vulnerability_092624-TarsilaSeara_2025.jpg)
]

---
## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Maintain bycatch below thresholds* ![:img mixed trend icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//Mixed trends.png) ![:img meeting objectives icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//checked.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: Harbor porpoise and gray seal bycatch

]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Currently meeting objectives

* Risk element: TechInteract, evaluated by species and sector: 14 low, 6 low-mod, 3 mod-high risk, unchanged

* The downward trend in harbor porpoise bycatch can also be due to a decrease in harbor porpoise abundance in US waters, reducing their overlap with fisheries, and a decrease in gillnet effort.

* The increasing trend in gray seal bycatch may be related to an increase in the gray seal population (U.S. pup counts).
]

---
## Objectives: All Areas Protected species *Recover endangered populations* ![:img decreasing arrow icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//decrease.png) ![:img below average icon icon, 2%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//below long term ave.png)

.pull-left[
Indicators: North Atlantic right whale population, calf counts

]

.pull-right[
Implications:

* Signs the adult population stabilized 2020-2022

* Population drivers for North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW) include combined fishery interactions/ship strikes, distribution shifts, and copepod availability.

* Additional potential stressors include offshore wind development, which overlaps with important habitat areas used year-round by right whales, including mother and calf migration corridors and foraging habitat.

* Unusual mortality events continue for 3 large whale species.

]

---
## Additional synthesis, new indicators

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 80 contributors from 20+ institutions UPDATE FOR 2025

.table[
![:col_row 
 Kimberly Bastille 
 Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
 Andy Beet 
 Brandon Beltz 
 Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
 Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Baoshan Chen (Stony Brook University) 
 Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut) 
 Joseph Caracappa 
 Doug Christel (GARFO) 
 Patricia Clay 
 Lisa Colburn 
 Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Art Degaetano (Cornell U) 
 Geret DePiper 
 Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
 Hubert du Pontavice 
 Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Michael Fogarty 
 Paula Fratantoni 
 Kevin Friedland 
 Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Sarah Gaichas 
 Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
 Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth) 
 James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Lori Garzio (Rutgers University),
 
 Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Sean Hardison 
 Dvora Hart 
 Kimberly Hyde 
 John Kocik 
 Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Scott Large 
 Gabe Larouche (Cornell U) 
 Daniel Linden 
 Andrew Lipsky 
 Sean Lucey 
 Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Chris Melrose 
 Shannon Meseck 
 Ryan Morse 
 Ray Mroch (SEFSC) 
 Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
 Kimberly Murray 
 David Moe Nelson (NCCOS) 
 Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) 
 Chris Orphanides 
 Richard Pace 
 Debi Palka 
 Tom Parham (Maryland DNR) 
 Charles Perretti 
 CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Kristin Precoda,
 
 Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Jeffrey Runge (U Maine) 
 Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
 Vincent Saba 
 Sarah Salois 
 Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
 Amy Schueller (SEFSC) 
 Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University) 
 Dave Secor (CBL) 
 Angela Silva 
 Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
 Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
 Laurel Smith 
 Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
 Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
 John Walden 
 Harvey Walsh 
 Changhua Weng 
 Dave Wilcox (VIMS) 
 Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM) 
 Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources) 
 Mark Wuenschel 
 Qian Zhang (U Maryland)]
]

???

---
## References

.contrib[
NULL
]

## Additional resources
.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* [Indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

]
.pull-right[
* [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov>
]
]

???