class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide .title[ # State of the Ecosystem 2025 <br /> Risks to Meeting Objectives ] .subtitle[ ## SOE January Synthesis Meeting<br /> 21 January 2025 ] --- class: top, left <style> p.caption { font-size: 0.6em; } </style> <style> .reduced_opacity { opacity: 0.5; } </style> # 2025 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives .center[  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;  ] .center[  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;  ] --- ## In 2024 Revised Risks: Climate and Ecosystem Change .pull-left[ ### Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation * Indicators of Distribution Shifts * Drivers * Implications ### Risks to Seasonal Management/Timed Closures * Indicators of Changing Timing (Phenology) * Drivers * Implications ] .pull-right[ ### Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding * Indicators of Changing Productivity * Drivers * Implications ] --- ## Risks to Spatial Management: Coastwide .pull-left[ Indicators: Fish distribution shifts <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="396" /> ] .pull-right[ Cetacean distribution shifts <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Risks to Spatial Management: Coastwide .pull-left[ Drivers: Forage shifts, temperature increase <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/forageshifts-1.png" alt="Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for 20 forage fish species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, with increasing trend (orange) for fall eastward and northward center of gravity." width="576" /> <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/long-term-sst-1.png" alt="Northeast US annual sea surface temperature (SST, black), with increasing trend (orange)." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Drivers: changing ocean habitat <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/GSI-1.png" alt="Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall (black). Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position, NO LONGER HAS increasing trend." width="504" /> .contrib[ Cold pool temperature and spatial extent ] <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/cold-pool-size-1.png" alt="Seasonal cold pool mean temperature (left) and spatial extent index (right), based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles), with declining trends (purple)." width="540" /> ] --- ## New Spatial Shift Indicators: Benthos, Zooplankton .pull-left[ Benthos center of gravity from fish stomachs <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/macrobenthosshifts-1.png" alt="Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for macrobenthos species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf" width="576" /> <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/megabenthosshifts-1.png" alt="Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for megabenthos species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf" width="576" /> ] .pull-right[ Copepods center of gravity from ECOMON <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/Smcopeshifts-1.png" alt="Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for small copepod species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf" width="576" /> <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/Lgcopeshifts-1.png" alt="Eastward (left) and northward (right) shifts in the center of gravity for large copepod species on the Northeast U.S. Shelf" width="576" /> ] --- ## Other new indicators of spatial shifts? ## Highlight recent observations? ## Synthesis across sections? --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/EastCoastClimateScenarios.png") background-size: 400px background-position: right bottom ## Risks to Spatial Management: Coastwide *Edit this--presented last year* Future considerations * Distribution shifts caused by changes in thermal habitat are likely to continue as long as long-term temperature trends persist. * Near-term oceanographic forecasts are currently in development and may inform how future warming impacts species distributions. * Increased oceanographic variability needs to be captured by regional ocean models and linked to species distribution processes to better understand potential future distributions. Species with high mobility or short lifespans react differently from immobile or long lived species. Adapting management to changing stock distributions and dynamic ocean processes will require continued monitoring of populations in space and evaluating management measures against a range of possible future spatial distributions. * [East Coast Climate Scenario Planning](https://www.mafmc.org/climate-change-scenario-planning) can help coordinate management. * [Near term predictions of distribution shifts](https://www.lenfestocean.org/nb/news-and-publications/multimedia/crafting-models-to-predict-near-term-fisheries-shifts-under-climate-change) project in progress ??? https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/ScenPlanningOptions.png --- ## Risks to Seasonal Management: Coastwide Indicators: spawning timing, migration change .pull-left[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/spawntiming-1.png" alt="Percent resting stage (non-spawning) mature female fish (black) with significant increases (orange) and decreases (purple) from two haddock and three yellowtail flounder stocks: CC = Cape Cod Gulf of Maine, GOM = Gulf of Maine, GB = Georges Bank, SNE = Southern New England." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ * Recreational tuna fisheries 50 days earlier in the year in 2019 compared to 2002. * In Cape Cod Bay, peak spring habitat use by right and humpback whales has shifted 18-19 days later over time. ] --- ## Risks to Seasonal Management Drivers .pull-left[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/transition-1.png" alt="Ocean summer length: the annual total number of days between the spring thermal transition date and the fall thermal transition date (black), with an increasing trend (orange)." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ .contrib[ Cold pool seasonal persistence ] <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/cold-pool-time-1.png" alt="Cold pool persistence index based on bias-corrected ROMS-NWA (open circles) and GLORYS (closed circles)." width="504" /> Future considerations *Edit this--presented last year* * Management actions that rely on effective alignment of fisheries availability and biological processes should continue to evaluate whether prior assumptions on seasonal timings still hold. * New indicators should be developed to monitor timing shifts for stocks. ] ??? --- ## Other new indicators of shifting timing? ## Highlight recent observations? ## Synthesis across sections? --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAB_Condition_allsex_2023-LaurelSmith-NOAAFederal_2024_crop.jpg") background-size: 630px background-position: right ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Mid-Atlantic Indicators: fish productivity and condition .pull-left[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/productivity-anomaly-1.png" alt="Fish productivity measures. Left: Small fish per large fish survey biomass anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Right: assessment recruitment per spawning stock biomass anomaly for stocks mainly in the Mid-Atlantic. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line, drawn across all years with the same number of stocks analyzed." width="576" /> ] .pull-right[ ] ??? <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/mab-cf-1.png" alt="Condition factor for fish species in the MAB based on fall NEFSC bottom trawl survey data. MAB data are missing for 2017 due to survey delays, and no survey was conducted in 2020." width="864" /> <a name=cite-perretti_regime_2017></a>([Perretti et al., 2017](http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v574/p1-11/)) --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: New England Indicators: fish productivity and condition .pull-left[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/ne-productivity-anomaly-1.png" alt="Fish productivity measures. Left: Small fish per large fish survey biomass anomaly in the Gulf of Maine. Right: assessment recruitment per spawning stock biomass anomaly for stocks mainly in New England. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line, drawn across all years with the same number of stocks analyzed." width="576" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/ne-cf-1.png" alt="Condition factor for fish species in New England based on fall NEFSC bottom trawl survey data." width="864" /> ] --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: New England .pull-left[ Indicators: Gulf of Maine Tern Productivity <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/seabird-ne-productivity-1.png" alt="Productivity of Common terns in the Gulf of Maine." width="540" /> ] .pull-right[ Gulf of Maine Salmon Returns <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/salmon-1.png" alt="Return rate proportions and abundance of Atlantic salmon." width="540" /> ] ??? * We can also see productivity shifts in seabirds, with longterm declines in common tern productivity * In Atlantic Salmon, we see declines in the return rate fish --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Mid Atlantic Drivers .pull-left[ Drivers: Forage Quality and Abundance <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/energy-density-1.png" alt="Forage fish energy density mean and standard deviation by season and year, compared with 1980s (solid line) and 1990s (dashed line) values." width="540" /> <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/foragebio-1.png" alt="Forage fish index in the MAB for spring (blue) and fall (red) surveys, with a decline (purple) in fall. Index values are relative to the maximum observation within a region across surveys." width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ Drivers: Low trophic levels <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/zoopanom-1.png" alt="Changes in zooplankton abundance in the MAB for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." width="576" /> ] ??? old <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/oldzoopanom-1.png" alt="Changes in zooplankton abundance in the MAB for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." width="360" /> --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: New England Drivers .pull-left-40[ Drivers: Forage Quality and Abundance <img src="https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/blob/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/RUNGE_Fig1_SeasonalandmultiannualabundanceofCalanusfinmarchicus-JeffreyRunge_2025.png?raw=true" alt="Dry mass of mesozooplankton captured with a 200µm ring net towed from the bottom to surface at a deep time series station in Wilkinson Basin between 2005-2022 (Runge et al. 2023)." width="50%" /> <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/ne-foragebio-1.png" alt="Forage fish index in New England for spring (blue) and fall (red) surveys, with an increase (orange) in spring GOM. Index values are relative to the maximum observation within a region across surveys." width="504" /> ] .pull-right-60[ Low trophic levels <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/ne-zoopanom-1.png" alt="Changes in zooplankton abundance in New England for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." width="576" /> ] ??? old <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/oldne-zoopanom-1.png" alt="Changes in zooplankton abundance in New England for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." width="360" /> --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Coastwide Drivers: Environmental *2024 Thermal habitat area by depth* <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="1008" /> --- ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding: Coastwide Drivers: Environmental .pull-left-60[ *Potential Ocean Acidification Impacts: Scallops and Longfin squid* <img src="https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/blob/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/SeasonalBottomAragoniteScallop-GraceSaba_2025.png?raw=true" alt="Locations where bottom aragonite saturation state ($\Omega_{Arag}$; were at or below the laboratory-derived sensitivity level for Atlantic sea scallop (left panel) and longfin squid (right panel) for the time periods 2007-2022 , 2023 (dark cyan), and 2024 (magenta). Gray circles indicate locations where bottom `\(\Omega_{Arag}\)` values were above the species specific sensitivity values." width="50%" /><img src="https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/blob/dev/data-raw/workshop/images/SeasonalBottomAragoniteLongfin-GraceSaba_2025.png?raw=true" alt="Locations where bottom aragonite saturation state ($\Omega_{Arag}$; were at or below the laboratory-derived sensitivity level for Atlantic sea scallop (left panel) and longfin squid (right panel) for the time periods 2007-2022 , 2023 (dark cyan), and 2024 (magenta). Gray circles indicate locations where bottom `\(\Omega_{Arag}\)` values were above the species specific sensitivity values." width="50%" /> ] .pull-right-40[ Drivers: Predation *Seals increasing, sharks stable, ~50% of HMS populations above target* <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Other new indicators of shifting productivity? Reduced risk of HABs? lower cysts over time in GOM ## Highlight recent observations? ## Synthesis across sections? Links to Community Climate Change Risk Indicators (Landings, Profits, and Social Objectives sections) --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//RegimeShift_V5.jpg") background-size: 500px background-position: right bottom ## Risks to Quota Setting/Rebuilding *Edit this--presented last year* Future considerations * There is a real risk that short-term predictions in assessments and rebuilding plans that assume unchanging underlying conditions will not be as effective, given the observed change documented in the prior sections in both ecological and environmental processes. * Assumptions for species’ growth, reproduction, and natural mortality should continue to be evaluated for individual species. * With observations of system-wide productivity shifts of multiple managed stocks, more research is needed to determine whether regime shifts or ecosystem reorganization are occurring, and how this should be incorporated into management. --- ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development Mid Atlantic &emsp; Element: OceanUse .pull-left[ Indicators: fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="504" /> Council request: which New England ports have significant reliance on Mid-Atlantic managed species? NEED TO UPDATE PORTS <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wind-rev-NE-MAFMC-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development New England .pull-left[ Indicators: fishery and community specific revenue in lease areas <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" /> Council request: which Mid-Atlantic ports have significant reliance on New England managed species? NEED TO UPDATE PORTS <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wind-rev-MA-NEFMC-1.png" width="468" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/right_whales.jpg") background-size: 500px background-position: right ## Risks: Offshore Wind Development: Implications .pull-left[ <img src="20250121_SOErisks_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" width="504" /> Implications: * Current plans for buildout of offshore wind in a patchwork of areas spreads the impacts differentially throughout the region * Planned wind areas overlap with one of the only known right whale foraging habitats, and altered local oceanography could affect right whale prey availability. Development also brings increased vessel strike risk and the potential impacts of pile driving noise. ] .pull-right[] ??? * Despite some changes in the timeline, offshore wind developement is still ramping up and 2030 goals are expected to be met + Delays in some projects may mean that the development timeline is faster in coming years * The staggered development in space and time means that impacts will affect regions differently and at different times * Beyond fishery revenue some of the other major impacts include: + Protected species interactions, particularly NARW calf migration corridors as whale hotspots overlap with lease areas. This is particularly concerning for southern NE, especially during construction + The effects on federal surveys through operations, survey design, habitat modification, and navigation. There's an ongoing effort to better quantify and mitigate these impacts. --- ## Other new indicators of other ocean use risk? Acoustic indicators of cetacean presence ## Highlight recent observations? ## Synthesis across sections?