Risk Element Example - Commercial revenue
This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend and low variability in revenue |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in revenue |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term revenue decrease |
| High | Significant recent decrease in revenue |
Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease
Risk element: CommRev
Fishing Mortality and Stock Biomass Status
These elements are applied at the species level. They indicate the level of risk to achieving OY from either overfishing or stock depletion, respectively.
Indicator: Stock status
| Risk Level | Definitions |
|---|---|
| Low | F < Fmsy; B > Bmsy |
| Low-Moderate | Unknown, but weight of evidence indicates low overfishing risk; Bmsy > B > 0.5 Bmsy or weight of evidence indicates low risk |
| Moderate-High | Unknown status |
| High | F > Fmsy; B < 0.5 Bmsy |
| Species | Fstatus | Bstatus |
|---|---|---|
| Ocean Quahog | lowest | lowest |
| Surfclam | lowest | lowest |
| Summer flounder | highest | lowmod |
| Scup | lowest | lowest |
| Black sea bass | lowest | lowest |
| Atl. mackerel | lowest | highest |
| Chub mackerel | lowmod | lowmod |
| Butterfish | lowest | lowmod |
| Longfin squid | lowmod | lowmod |
| Shortfin squid | lowmod | lowmod |
| Golden tilefish | lowest | lowmod |
| Blueline tilefish | highest | modhigh |
| Bluefish | lowest | lowmod |
| Spiny dogfish | highest | lowest |
| Monkfish | lowmod | lowmod |
| Unmanaged forage | na | na |
| Deepsea corals | na | na |
Food Web (1) - Prey Availability
Fish stocks and protected species stocks are managed using single species approaches, but fish and protected species stocks exist within a food web of predator and prey interactions. This element is one of two separating food web risks to achieving OY for Council managed species from two sources. This first element assesses prey availability for each species, and the second food web risk element assesses predation pressure on each species (see Food Web (2)- Predation Pressure).
Risks from all prey (1) and all predators (2) are considered.
Indicators of prey availability combine aggregate prey abundance and species body condition (relative weight at length).
Indicators
Food Web (2) - Predation Pressure
A range of potential predation pressure indicators were discussed. The EOP Committee and AP agreed to use available data at present while total predation mortality indicators from full food web models are developed and tested.
The EOP and AP agreed to a threshold value for low predation of 10%. In addition, at least 50% of predation mortality should be accounted for in selected indicators by combining the most important predators.
Indicators
Predator prey overlap
Predator consumption index
- Predation pressure index
- Model-derived predation mortality
Ecosystem Productivity
This element is applied at the ecosystem level (the Mid-Atlantic Ecosystem Production Unit). Productivity at the base of the food web supports and ultimately limits the amount of managed species production in an ecosystem.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trends in ecosystem productivity |
| Low-Moderate | Trend in ecosystem productivity (1-2 measures, increase or decrease) |
| Moderate-High | Trend in ecosystem productivity (3+ measures, increase or decrease) |
| High | Decreasing trend in ecosystem productivity, 4+ measures |
Ranked Low-moderate due to increasing zooplankton and decreasing forage trends. Patterns in fish condition and productivity also observed. No trend in primary production.
Risk Element: EcoProd
Climate
This element is applied at the species level, and evaluates risks to species productivity (and therefore to achieving OY) due to projected climate change factors in the region.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | Low climate vulnerability ranking |
| Low-Moderate | Moderate climate vulnerability ranking |
| Moderate-High | High climate vulnerability ranking, climate indicators impacting the stock increasing (worsening) |
| High | Very high climate vulnerability ranking, climate indicators impacting the stock increasing (worsening) |
| Species | Climate |
|---|---|
| Ocean Quahog | highest |
| Surfclam | modhigh |
| Summer flounder | lowmod |
| Scup | lowmod |
| Black sea bass | modhigh |
| Atl. mackerel | lowmod |
| Chub mackerel | na |
| Butterfish | lowest |
| Longfin squid | lowest |
| Shortfin squid | lowest |
| Golden tilefish | modhigh |
| Blueline tilefish | modhigh |
| Bluefish | lowest |
| Spiny dogfish | lowest |
| Monkfish | lowest |
| Unmanaged forage | na |
| Deepsea corals | na |
Distribution Shifts
This element is applied at the species level, and evaluates risks of species distribution shifts due to projected climate change in the Northeast US.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | Low potential for distribution shifts |
| Low-Moderate | Moderate potential for distribution shifts |
| Moderate-High | High potential for distribution shifts, observed distribution shifts |
| High | Very high potential for distribution shifts, observed distribution shifts |
| Species | DistShift |
|---|---|
| Ocean Quahog | modhigh |
| Surfclam | modhigh |
| Summer flounder | modhigh |
| Scup | modhigh |
| Black sea bass | modhigh |
| Atl. mackerel | modhigh |
| Chub mackerel | na |
| Butterfish | highest |
| Longfin squid | modhigh |
| Shortfin squid | highest |
| Golden tilefish | lowest |
| Blueline tilefish | lowest |
| Bluefish | modhigh |
| Spiny dogfish | highest |
| Monkfish | modhigh |
| Unmanaged forage | na |
| Deepsea corals | na |
Estuarine and Coastal Habitat
This element is applied at the species level, and evaluates risk of not achieving OY due to threats to estuarine and nearshore coastal habitat/nursery grounds.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | Not dependent on nearshore coastal or estuarine habitat |
| Low-Moderate | Estuarine dependent, estuarine condition stable |
| Moderate-High | Estuarine dependent, estuarine condition fair |
| High | Estuarine dependent, estuarine condition poor |
| Species | EstHabitat |
|---|---|
| Ocean Quahog | lowest |
| Surfclam | lowest |
| Summer flounder | highest |
| Scup | highest |
| Black sea bass | highest |
| Atl. mackerel | lowest |
| Chub mackerel | lowest |
| Butterfish | lowest |
| Longfin squid | lowest |
| Shortfin squid | lowest |
| Golden tilefish | lowest |
| Blueline tilefish | lowest |
| Bluefish | highest |
| Spiny dogfish | lowest |
| Monkfish | lowest |
| Unmanaged forage | na |
| Deepsea corals | na |
Commercial Value
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and addresses the risk of not maximizing fishery value. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend and low variability in revenue |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in revenue |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term revenue decrease |
| High | Significant recent decrease in revenue |
Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease
Risk element: CommVal
Marine Recreational Angler Trips
This element is assessed at the ecosystem level where it applies equally to all recreationally fished species. It addresses the risk of not maximizing recreational fishery value and opportunities.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trends in angler trips |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in angler trips |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term decreases in angler trips |
| High | Significant recent decreases in angler trips |
Ranked low-moderate risk due to the significant long term increase with high recent variability.
Risk element: RecVal
Commercial Fishery Resilience (1) - Revenue Diversity
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and addresses the potential risk of reduced commercial fishery business resilience by evaluating species diversity of revenue at the permit level.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend in diversity measures |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing trend or high variance in diversity measure |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term downward trend in diversity measure |
| High | Significant recent downward trend in diversity measure |
Species revenue diversity in the Mid Atlantic.
With less than 30 years in the time series, trend was not assessed. With no trend, this element ranks low risk. However, a decline prior to 2000 is visually apparent and could be assessed with updated methods for the 2025 risk assessment.
Risk element: FishRes1
Commercial Fishery Resilience (2) - Shoreside Support
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk of reduced commercial fishery business resilience due to shoreside support infrastructure.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend in shoreside support businesses |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in shoreside support businesses |
| Moderate-High | Significant recent decrease in one measure of shoreside support businesses |
| High | Significant recent decrease in multiple measures of shoreside support businesses |
One indicator showed a decrease, which represents moderate-high risk to fishery resilience. Data access has changed but updates should be possible.
Risk element: FishRes2
Commercial Fishery Resilience (3) -- Fleet Diversity
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk to maintaining equity in access to fishery resources.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend in diversity measures |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing trend or high variance in diversity measure |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term downward trend in diversity measure |
| High | Significant recent downward trend in diversity measure |
With less than 30 years in the time series, trend was not assessed. For fleet count a visual trend may be apparent, while for revenue diversity no apparent visual trend exists. With no trend, this element ranks low risk.
Risk element: ComDiv
Recreational Fleet Diversity (new)
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk to maintaining equity in recreational access to fishery resources.
Potential Indicator
Potential criteria
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend in diversity measure |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing trend or high variance in diversity measure |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term downward trend in diversity measure |
| High | Significant recent downward trend in diversity measure |
Fishing Community Vulnerability
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and evaluates the risk of reduced community resilience (vulnerability, reliance, engagement).
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | Few (<10%) vulnerable fishery dependent communities |
| Low-Moderate | 10-25% of fishery dependent communities with >3 high vulnerability ratings |
| Moderate-High | 25-50% of fishery dependent communities with >3 high vulnerability ratings |
| High | Majority (>50%) of fishery dependent communities with >3 high vulnerability ratings |
In past risk assessments, four of the top communities (20%) had three or more of these high risk rankings, so we ranked overall social-cultural risk as low-moderate for these Mid-Atlantic communities. However, newer analyses evaluating EJ vulnerability could be incorporated into this analysis.
Risk element: Social
Commercial Fishing Production
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and describes the risk of not optimizing domestic commercial fishing production from Council-managed species and total commercial fishing production in the Mid-Atlantic.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend or increase in seafood landings |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in seafood landings |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term decrease in seafood landings |
| High | Significant recent decrease in seafood landings |
There is a significant long term decrease in total commercial landings and U.S. seafood landings in the Mid-Atlantic, indicating moderate-high risk using previous criteria.
Risk element: ComFood
Recreational/Subsistence Food Production
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and describes the risk of not maintaining personal food production.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend or increase in recreational landings |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in recreational landings |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term decrease in recreational landings |
| High | Significant recent decrease in recreational landings |
Indicators: Recreational harvest
This significant long term decrease in both recreational landings represents a moderate-high risk to food production.