Operationalizing the use of ecosystem information in Mid-Atlantic science and management decisions

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# Operationalizing the use of ecosystem information in Mid-Atlantic science and management decisions
]
.subtitle[
## SCS8 Case Study 26 August 2024
]
.author[
### Sarah Gaichas Mid-Atlantic SSC and NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center Thanks to Geret DePiper (MAFMC SSC, NEFSC) and Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)
]

---

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# Operational: **in use or ready for use**

Components of an operational process:

*  Clear articulation of management objectives (use)

*  Standardized information updates on a regular reporting schedule

*  Feedbacks from the management system and adjustments to achieve management objectives

"Operationalizing" is an iterative process within a specific context

.contrib[*Mid Atlantic fishery management plans and species*]

![:img MAFMC fishery management plans and species, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAFMPs4.png)

.footnote[Source: http://www.mafmc.org/fishery-management-plans]

???
(we spend a lot of time on this, understand that operational processes require a lot of time and resources and are *not* research)

---
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# Mid Atlantic operational use of ecosystem information

.pull-left-60[

## Stock assessments

## ABC setting

## EAFM: risk assessment &rarr; conceptual model &rarr; management strategy evaluation &rarr; operational management tool

## Co-evolution of ecosystem reporting and operational use

Right: Bottom temperature time series covariate on recruitment in the 2024 operational black sea bass assessment

]

.pull-right-40[
.footnote[
Image courtesy Emily Liljestrand, NEFSC
]
]

???
*  Stock assessments (ESPs-->assessment structure; ecosystem covariates-->OFL projections)

*  ABC setting (data quality, model performance, and ecosystem information-->OFL CV-->ABC)

*  EAFM risk assessment (ecosystem information-->prioritize scoping and MSE)

In development, research coordinated with SSC

*  Ecosystem overfishing thresholds

Focus on the risk assessment and its operational use, process to bring new science in

---

## Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profiles (ESPs) in Assessments, and MAFMC ABC process

.pull-left[
![:img Pathways for scientific advice from the northeast ESP process, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/ESPdecisionsupporttable.png)

![:img Bluefish ESP conceptual model, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/bluefishconceptualmodel.png)

.footnote[
Images courtesy Abigail Tyrell, NEFSC
]
]

.pull-right[
### ABC proportion of OFL given OFL CV

.footnote[
See [MAFMC ABC control rule](http://www.mafmc.org/s/MAFMC-ABC-Control-Rule-White-Paper.pdf) and [update for 2020 MAFMC risk policy](https://www.mafmc.org/s/b_Implications-of-MAFMC-Risk-Policy-for-Multi.pdf)
]

]

---
## MAFMC Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management

.pull-left[
* 2016 Ecosystem Approach to Fishery Management (EAFM) [Policy Guidance document](
http://www.mafmc.org/s/EAFM-Doc-Revised-2019-02-08.pdf)

.center[
![:img EAFM Policy Guidance Doc Word Cloud, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/MAFMC_EAFMwordcloud.png)
]

]

.pull-right[
* Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework:
.center[
![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework, 100%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Framework.png)
]

]
???
The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop on slide 2. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

<a name=cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>([DePiper, et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701))
<a name=cite-bastille_improving_2021></a>([Bastille, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155))
<a name=cite-muffley_there_2021></a>([Muffley, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156))
<a name=cite-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>([Gaichas, et al., 2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract))
<a name=cite-depiper_learning_2021></a>([DePiper, et al., 2021](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054))
<a name=cite-gaichas_framework_2016></a>([Gaichas, et al., 2016](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full))

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2024 Update with new elements

.pull-left[
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> PreyA </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> PredP </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OffHab </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Mackerel and dogfish **Fstatus** risk reduced to low, Summer flounder risk increased to high. Spiny dogfish **Bstatus** risk decreased to low
* Indicators in development for new Prey Availability, Predation Pressure, and Offshore Habitat elements
]

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes2 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Recreational value risk increased from low to low-moderate
* Recreational diversity added, risk criteria in development
] 
]

.pull-right[ 
*Species and Sector level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Interact </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OSW1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OSW2 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OtherUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Management fully updated for existing elements 
* Offshore wind (OSW) risks split into 2 new elements in development, non-OSW uses added
]
]

---
.pull-left[

<div id="htmlwidget-56ccef7ca5ba06d8ce21" style="width:100%;height:710px;" class="widgetframe html-widget"></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-56ccef7ca5ba06d8ce21">{"x":{"url":"20240826_EcoCaseStudy_Gaichas_files/figure-html//widgets/widget_sfconceptmod.html","options":{"xdomain":"*","allowfullscreen":false,"lazyload":false}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>

]

.pull-right[
## How is MAFMC using the risk assessment?

* Risk based prioritization: the Council selected summer flounder for conceptual modeling

* Council completed management strategy evaluation (MSE) addressing [recreational fishery discards](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse) based on conceptual modeling

* Stakeholder driven MSE coupled population and recreational demand models

![](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/keepOneNoOFkey.png)

* Results: potential improvement in angler welfare with low risk to stock status
]
???
In this interactive circular graph visualization, model elements identified as important by the Council (through risk assessment) and by the working group (through a range of experience and expertise) are at the perimeter of the circle. Elements are defined in detail in the last section of [this page](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_riskfactors_subplots.html). Relationships between elements are represented as links across the center of the circle to other elements on the perimeter. Links from a model element that affect another element start wide at the base and are color coded to match the category of the element they affect.Hover over a perimeter section (an element) to see all relationships for that element, including links from other elements. Hover over a link to see what it connects. Links by default show text for the two elements and the direction of the relationship (1 for relationship, 0 for no relationship--most links are one direction).For example, hovering over the element "Total Landings" in the full model shows that the working group identified the elements affected by landings as Seafood Production, Recreational Value, and Commercial Profits (three links leading out from landings), and the elements affecting landings as Fluke SSB, Fluke Distributional Shift, Risk Buffering, Management Control, Total Discards, and Shoreside Support (6 links leading into Total Landings).

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/RecFishDecisionSupportTool.png")
background-size: 1050px
background-position: bottom

## Operational multispecies recreational demand model sets specifications

---
## Updating the risk assessment: add recreational and cross-sectoral risks, static &rarr; dynamic indicators

Example: Evaluate risks posed by prey availability to achieving OY for Council managed species

.pull-left[
<img src="20240826_EcoCaseStudy_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="504" />

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240826_EcoCaseStudy_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="504" />

]

???
Council and Advisory Panel members recommended new elements addressing human dimensions (recreational access equity), new elements addressing cross-sectoral impacts (offshore wind impacts on biology and ecosystem as well as fishery access and scientific sampling), and transitions from static ecosystem indicators to time series indicators (prey availability, predation pressure, and fishing community vulnerability). New ecosystem science was required to support these requests. The process included development of new indicators of prey availability based on spatio-temporal modeling using ecological datasets (stomach contents, zooplankton), and new spatial analyses of habitat, revenue, and surveys relative to wind energy development areas. Development of potential risk criteria is ongoing; thresholds between low, moderate, and high risk that are essential to operational use are developed collaboratively with Council and Advisory Panel members.

The slide shows a higher risk example (black sea bass, low recent condition correlated with recently declining prey) and a lower risk example (bluefish, despite a long term decline in forage fish prey. recent condition has been good)

<a name=cite-gaichas_assessing_2023></a>([Gaichas, et al., 2023](https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2023-0093))

---
## Evolution of ecosystem reporting: from physical time series to specific management risks

.pull-left[
*2016-2023 Reports: Climate Section*
<img src="20240826_EcoCaseStudy_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="504" />

*2024 Report: Climate/Ecosystem Risks*

**Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation**
.contrib[
*  Indicators and potential drivers of distribution shifts
]

**Risks to Seasonal Management/Timed Closures**
.contrib[
*  Indicators and potential drivers of changing timing (phenology)
]

**Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding**
.contrib[
*  Indicators and potential drivers of changing productivity
]
]

.pull-right[
*2024 Report: Days at stressful scallop temperature*
.right[

![:img scallop stress bottom temp, 75%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/dev/workshop/images/bottom_temp_threshold_17_19_Elephant_Trunk.png)

]

.footnote[
Image courtesy Joseph Caracappa, NEFSC
]
]

???

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SOE-MA-030424_Page_2.png")
background-size: 500px
background-position: right

# Conclusions

.pull-left-60[

*  Ecosystem information is being used operationally to support decisions in multiple processes

+  Assessment, ABC setting, EAFM
    +  Contextual information is valued--used--by the Councils
    +  Align information with objectives

*  Risk assessment frameworks are one useful basis for operational use of ecosystem information

+  Alaska assessment risk tables
    +  New England developing indicator-based risk policy
    
*  Management Strategy Evaluation is needed to identify robust operational approaches

*  Collaborative iteration is recommended into the future

]

.pull-right-40[]

???

---
background-image: url("https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/s3/styles/original/s3/2022-08/640x427-Black-Sea-Bass-NOAAFisheries.png"),url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Framework.png")
background-size: 290px, 430px
background-position: left bottom, right bottom

## THANK YOU! Assessment and Ecosystem Working Groups

.table[
![:col_row 
 *Black Sea Bass Assessment* 
 Emily Liljestrand (NEFSC) - MTA lead 
 Anna Mercer (NEFSC) - RTA chair 
 Kiersten Curti (NEFSC) - RTA lead 
 Julia Beaty (MAFMC) 
 Gavin Fay (UMassD) 
 Marissa McMahan (Manomet) 
 Jason McNamee (RIDEM) 
 Tim Miller (NEFSC) 
 Sam Truesdell (MADMF/NEFSC) 
 Ricky Tabendera (NEFSC/HCRI) 
 Alex Hansell (NEFSC) 
 Andy Jones (NEFSC) 
 Jeff Brust (NJDEP) 
 Lisa Chong (MSU) 
 Scott Large (NEFSC) 
 Abby Tyrell (NEFSC) 
 Andie Painten (UMassD) 
 Maria Cristina Perez (UMassD) 
 Hannah Verkamp (CFRF) 
 John Wiedenmann (Rutgers) 
 Paula Fratantoni (NEFSC) 
 Gary Shephard (NEFSC - retired),
 
 *EAFM Products* 
 Greg Ardini 
 Fred Akers 
 Leah Barton 
 Kimberly Bastille 
 Bob Beal 
 Rick Bellavance 
 Mark Binsted 
 Eleanor Bochenek 
 Bonnie Brady 
 Jeff Brust 
 Andrew Carr-Harris 
 Paul Caruso 
 Jessica Coakley 
 Dustin Colson-Leaning 
 Jonathan Cummings 
 Kiley Dancy 
 Maureen Davidson 
 Jeff Deem 
 Peter deFur 
 Neil Delanoy 
 John DePerseniaire 
 Jonathan Deroba 
 Greg DiDomenico 
 Michelle Duval 
 G. Warren Elliott 
 Gavin Fay 
 Jeremy Firestone 
 Emily Gilbert 
 Willy Goldsmith,
 
 *EAFM Products* 
 Zachary Greenberg 
 Kaili Gregory 
 Joseph Grist 
 Pam Lyons Gromen 
 Jeremy Hancher 
 Jay Hermsen 
 Peter Himchak 
 Rich Hittinger 
 Jorge Holzer 
 Fiona Hogan 
 Jeff Kaelin 
 LCDR Matt Kahley 
 Emily Keiley 
 Jeff Kipp 
 Meghan Lapp 
 Scott Lenox 
 Douglas Lipton 
 Carl LoBue 
 Sean Lucey 
 Jason McNamee 
 Adam Nowalsky 
 Mike Oppegaard 
 Robert O’Reilly 
 Danielle Palmer 
 Charles Perretti 
 Michael Plaia 
 Kirby Rootes-Murdy 
 Scott Rubow,
 
 *EAFM Products* 
 Robert Ruhle 
 Tom Schlichter 
 Robin Scott 
 Rich Seagraves 
 Philip Simon 
 Annabelle Stanley 
 Mark Terceiro 
 George Topping 
 Michael Waine 
 Judith Weis 
 Michael Wilberg 
 Sara Winslow 
 Greg Wojcik 
 Harvey Yenkinson]
]

???
 
 *EAFM: Conceptual Model* 
 Greg Ardini	NEFSC 
 Mark Terceiro	NEFSC 
 Michael Wilberg	UMD 
 Douglas Lipton	NMFS 
 Kiley Dancy	MAFMC 
 Jessica Coakley	MAFMC 
 Kirby Rootes-Murdy	ASMFC,
 
 *EAFM: Conceptual Model Cont'd* 
 Jason McNamee	RI DEM 
 Jeff Brust	NJ DEP 
 Danielle Palmer	GARFO 
 Emily Gilbert	GARFO 
 Robert O’Reilly	EOP & VMRC 
 G. Warren Elliott	EOP Chair 
 Charles Perretti	NEFSC 
 Geret DePiper	NEFSC 	
 Sarah Gaichas	NEFSC 
 Brandon Muffley	MAFMC 
 
 *EAFM: MSE Technical Group* 
 Andrew Carr-Harris/NEFSC 
 Dustin Colson-Leaning/ASMFC 
 Jonathan Cummings/USFWS 
 Kiley Dancy/MAFMC 
 Geret DePiper/NEFSC 
 Jon Deroba/NEFSC 
 Gavin Fay/UMass Dartmouth 
 Sarah Gaichas/NEFSC 
 Kaili Gregory/Cornell 
 Jorge Holzer/U. Maryland 
 Emily Keiley/GARFO 
 Jeff Kipp/ASMFC 
 Doug Lipton/NOAA Fisheries 
 Annabelle Stanley/Cornell 
 Mark Terceiro/NEFSC 
 Mike Wilberg/U. Maryland 
 Greg Wojcik/CT DEEP,

*EAFM: MSE Stakeholder Group* 
 Leah Barton/Shore 
 Rick Bellavance/Charter Boat 
 Eleanor Bochenek/Academic 
 Neil Delanoy/Party Boat 
 John DePersenaire/National Recreational Org. 
 Greg DiDomenico/Commercial 
 Paul Haertel/Private Boat 
 Rich Hittinger/Private Boat 
 Mike Oppegaard/Charter Boat 
 Michael Plaia/Charter Boat 
 Harvey Yenkinson/Private Boat 
 Mike Waine/Rec. Secondary Market 
 
 *EAFM: MSE Council Advisory Group* 
 Adam Nowalsky 
 Justin Davis 
 Tony DeLernia 
 Peter deFur 
 
 *Recreational Fishery Decision Support Tool* 
 Kim Bastille (NEFSC) 
 Andrew Carr-Harris (NEFSC) 
 Geret DePiper (NEFSC) 
 Scott Steinback (NEFSC)]
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## THANK YOU! Ecosystem reporting made possible by (at least) 80 contributors from 20+ institutions

.table[
![:col_row 
 Kimberly Bastille 
 Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
 Andy Beet 
 Brandon Beltz 
 Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
 Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Baoshan Chen (Stony Brook University) 
 Zhuomin Chen (U Connecticut) 
 Joseph Caracappa 
 Doug Christel (GARFO) 
 Patricia Clay 
 Lisa Colburn 
 Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
 Art Degaetano (Cornell U) 
 Geret DePiper 
 Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
 Hubert du Pontavice 
 Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Michael Fogarty 
 Paula Fratantoni 
 Kevin Friedland 
 Marjy Friedrichs (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Sarah Gaichas 
 Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
 Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology UMass Dartmouth) 
 James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
 Lori Garzio (Rutgers University),
 
 Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Sean Hardison 
 Dvora Hart 
 Kimberly Hyde 
 John Kocik 
 Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
 Scott Large 
 Gabe Larouche (Cornell U) 
 Daniel Linden 
 Andrew Lipsky 
 Sean Lucey 
 Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
 Chris Melrose 
 Shannon Meseck 
 Ryan Morse 
 Ray Mroch (SEFSC) 
 Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
 Kimberly Murray 
 David Moe Nelson (NCCOS) 
 Janet Nye (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) 
 Chris Orphanides 
 Richard Pace 
 Debi Palka 
 Tom Parham (Maryland DNR) 
 Charles Perretti 
 CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Kristin Precoda,
 
 Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
 Jeffrey Runge (U Maine) 
 Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
 Vincent Saba 
 Sarah Salois 
 Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
 Amy Schueller (SEFSC) 
 Teresa Schwemmer (Stony Brook University) 
 Dave Secor (CBL) 
 Angela Silva 
 Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
 Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
 Laurel Smith 
 Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
 Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
 Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
 John Walden 
 Harvey Walsh 
 Changhua Weng 
 Dave Wilcox (VIMS) 
 Timothy White (Environmental Studies Program BOEM) 
 Sarah Wilkin (NMFS Office of Protected Resources) 
 Mark Wuenschel 
 Qian Zhang (U Maryland)]
]

???

---
## References

.contrib[
<a name=bib-bastille_improving_2021></a>[Bastille, K. et
al.](#cite-bastille_improving_2021) (2021). "Improving the IEA Approach
Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 72-89. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846155).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

<a name=bib-depiper_operationalizing_2017></a>[DePiper, G. S. et
al.](#cite-depiper_operationalizing_2017) (2017). "Operationalizing
integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team:
lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: _ICES Journal of Marine
Science_ 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsx038](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsx038).
URL:
[https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701)
(visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

<a name=bib-depiper_learning_2021></a>[DePiper, G. et
al.](#cite-depiper_learning_2021) (2021). "Learning by doing:
collaborative conceptual modelling as a path forward in ecosystem-based
management". In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_ 78.4, pp. 1217-1228.
ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI:
[10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsab054).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054](https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab054)
(visited on Aug. 08, 2022).

<a name=bib-gaichas_implementing_2018></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et
al.](#cite-gaichas_implementing_2018) (2018). "Implementing Ecosystem
Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US
Mid-Atlantic". In: _Frontiers in Marine Science_ 5. ISSN: 2296-7745.
DOI:
[10.3389/fmars.2018.00442](https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffmars.2018.00442).
URL:
[https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/abstract)
(visited on Nov. 20, 2018).

<a name=bib-gaichas_assessing_2023></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et
al.](#cite-gaichas_assessing_2023) (2023). "Assessing small pelagic
fish trends in space and time using piscivore stomach contents". En.
In: _Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences_, pp.
cjfas-2023-0093. ISSN: 0706-652X, 1205-7533. DOI:
[10.1139/cjfas-2023-0093](https://doi.org/10.1139%2Fcjfas-2023-0093).
URL:
[https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2023-0093](https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2023-0093)
(visited on Feb. 15, 2024).

<a name=bib-gaichas_framework_2016></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et
al.](#cite-gaichas_framework_2016) (2016). "A Framework for
Incorporating Species, Fleet, Habitat, and Climate Interactions into
Fishery Management". In: _Frontiers in Marine Science_ 3. ISSN:
2296-7745. DOI:
[10.3389/fmars.2016.00105](https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffmars.2016.00105).
URL:
[https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full)
(visited on Apr. 29, 2020).

<a name=bib-muffley_there_2021></a>[Muffley, B. et
al.](#cite-muffley_there_2021) (2021). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management".
In: _Coastal Management_ 49.1. Publisher: Taylor & Francis \_ eprint:
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 90-106. ISSN:
0892-0753. DOI:
[10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F08920753.2021.1846156).
URL:
[https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156](https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156)
(visited on Apr. 16, 2021).
]

## Resources
.contrib[

* [MAFMC SSC](https://www.mafmc.org/ssc)
* [MAFMC EAFM](https://www.mafmc.org/eafm)
* [MAFMC EAFM Summer Flounder MSE](https://www.mafmc.org/actions/summer-flounder-mse)

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov>
]

---

.center[
# Extra
]

---
## How to get the OFL CV? Characterizing scientific uncertainty

.pull-left-40[
**SSC evaluates 6 criteria**

1. Data quality (Tier 1)
1. Model appropriateness (Tier 1)
1. Retrospective analysis (Tier 1)
1. Comparison with simpler analysis (Tier 2)
1. Ecosystem factors (Tier 2)
1. Recruitment trends (Tier 2)
]

.pull-right-60[

**5. Informed by ecosystem factors or comparisons with other species**

.contrib[
a. Ecosystem factors considered may reduce or increase uncertainty; simply
considering an ecosystem factor does not automatically decrease uncertainty;

b. Stock-relevant ecosystem factors directly included in the assessment model, e.g.,:
  +  Environmentally dependent growth or other population processes;
  +  Environmentally dependent availability or other observation processes;
  +  Factors limiting/enhancing stock productivity (habitat quality, etc.);
  +  Predation, disease, or episodic environmental mortality (e.g., red tide);
  +  Time varying inputs such as empirical weight at age or stanzas of growth not
explicitly tied to ecosystem factors are considered under criterion #2, not
here. Stanzas of recruitment not explicitly tied to ecosystem factors are
considered under criterion #6;

c. Ecosystem factors outside the stock assessment affecting short term prediction can
inform uncertainty, e.g.,:
  +  General measures of ecosystem productivity and habitat stability (e.g.,
primary production amount and timing, temperature trends, and other
MAFMC EAFM risk assessment indicators at the stock or ecosystem level);
  +  Climate vulnerability or other risk assessment evaluation of potential for
changing productivity under changing conditions;
  +  Acute ecosystem events potentially affecting stock dynamics across the stock
range over the short term (e.g., marine heat waves, acidification or hypoxia
events, harmful algal blooms);

d. Comparisons among related species; e.g., recruitment, growth, condition patterns
across Mid Atlantic fish species that are: stable (low uncertainty), varying
synchronously (supports common environmental driver, lower uncertainty), or
varying unpredictably (higher uncertainty). 
]
]

.footnote[
See [MAFMC SSC OFL CV Guidance Document](https://www.mafmc.org/s/Final-OFL-CV-guidance-document_06_24.pdf)
]

---
##  Characterizing scientific uncertainty from ecosystem factors

<table class="table" style="font-size: 16px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Decsion Criteria </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Default OFL CV = 60% </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Default OFL CV = 100% </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Default OFL CV = 150% </th>
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 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ecosystem factors accounted </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Assessment considers habitat and ecosystem effects on stock productivity, distribution, mortality and quantitatively includes appropriate factors reducing uncertainty in short term predictions. And/or evidence outside the assessment suggests that ecosystem productivity and habitat quality are stable or accountable. And/or ecosystem events affecting stock in the short term are absent. And/or comparable species in the region have synchronous production characteristics and stable short-term predictions. And/or climate vulnerability analysis suggests low risk of change in productivity due to changing climate. </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Assessment considers habitat/ecosystem factors but does not demonstrate either reduced or inflated short-term prediction uncertainty based on these factors. And/or evidence outside the assessment suggests that ecosystem productivity and habitat quality are variable. And/or acute ecosystem events are likely to have a low to moderate risk of affecting the stock in the short term. And/or mixed productivity and uncertainty signals among comparable species in the region. And/or climate vulnerability analysis suggests moderate risk of change in productivity from changing climate. </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Assessment either demonstrates that including appropriate ecosystem/habitat factors increases short-term prediction uncertainty, or does not consider habitat and ecosystem factors. And/or evidence outside the assessment suggests that ecosystem productivity and habitat quality are variable and degrading. And/or acute ecosystem events are likely to have a high risk of affecting the stock in the short term. And/or comparable species in the region have high uncertainty in short term predictions. And/or climate vulnerability analysis suggests high risk of changing productivity from changing climate. </td>
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