EAFM Risk Assessment Mid Atlantic 2024

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# EAFM Risk Assessment Mid Atlantic 2024
]
.subtitle[
## Slides for Brandon MAFMC 9 April 2024
]
.author[
### Sarah Gaichas and Geret DePiper, based on 2024 SOE
]

---

class: top, left

## Risk Element Example - Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

.pull-left[

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trend and low variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing or high variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant long term revenue decrease </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent decrease in revenue </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease

]
.pull-right[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="504" />

]

## Risk element: CommRev

---
class: center, center

# Ecological Risk Elements

---
class: top, left
## Stock Assessment Performance

This risk element is applied at the species
level, and addresses risk to achieving OY due to scientific uncertainty
based on analytical and data limitations.

.pull-left-70[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Assessment model(s) passed peer review, high data quality, small retrospective pattern </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Assessment passed peer review but some data and/or reference points may be lacking </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Assessment passed peer review but with major data quality issue or large retrospective pattern </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Assessment failed peer review or no assessment, data-limited tools applied </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

.pull-right-30[
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

]
---
.pull-left[
## Fishing Mortality and Stock Biomass Status

These elements are applied at the species level. They indicate the level of risk to achieving OY from either overfishing or stock depletion, respectively.

Indicator: Stock status

]

.pull-right[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definitions </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> F &lt; Fmsy; B &gt; Bmsy </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Unknown, but weight of evidence indicates low overfishing risk; Bmsy &gt; B &gt; 0.5 Bmsy or weight of evidence indicates low risk </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Unknown status </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> F &gt; Fmsy; B &lt; 0.5 Bmsy </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
 
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

]

---
## Food Web (1) - Prey Availability

This element will be applied at the species level. This element is one of two
separating food web risks to achieving OY for Council managed species
from two sources. This first element assesses prey availability for each
species, and the second food web risk element assesses predation
pressure on each species (see next element).

.pull-left[
*Potential indicators*
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" />

<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="504" />
]

.pull-right[

*Potential criteria*
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Prey availability high (not limiting) and/or good fish condition past 5 years </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Aggregate prey available for this species has stable or increasing trend, moderate condition </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Aggregate prey available for this species has significant decreasing trend, poor condition </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Managed species highly dependent on prey with limited and declining availability, poor condition </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

---
## Food Web (2) - Predation Pressure

This element will be applied at the species level. This element is one of two
separating food web risks to achieving OY for Council managed species
from two sources. This second food web risk element assesses predation
pressure on each species, and the first element assesses prey
availability for each species (see element above).

.pull-left[
*Potential indicators*

*  Predation pressure index

*  Model-derived predation mortality

*  Aggregate predator biomass
]

.pull-right[

*Potential criteria*
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Predation pressure represents low proportion of overall mortality </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Predation pressure moderate proportion of overall mortality, decreasing mortality trend </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Predation pressure moderate proportion of overall mortality, increasing mortality trend </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Predation pressure represents high proportion of overall mortality, increasing mortality trend </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

---
## Food Web (3) - Protected Species Prey

This element is applied at the species level.  This element ranks the risks of not achieving protected species
objectives due to species interactions with Council managed species.

.pull-left-60[

.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Few interactions with any protected species </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Important prey of 1-2 protected species, or important
 prey of 3 or more protected species with management
 consideration of interaction </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Important prey of 3 or more protected species </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Managed species is sole prey for a protected species </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

.pull-right-40[
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW3Prey </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## Ecosystem Productivity

This element is applied at the ecosystem level (the Mid-Atlantic
Ecosystem Production Unit).  Productivity at the base of the food web supports and ultimately limits
the amount of managed species production in an ecosystem.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trends in ecosystem productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: yellow !important;"> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: yellow !important;"> Trend in ecosystem productivity (1-2 measures, increase or decrease) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Trend in ecosystem productivity (3+ measures, increase or decrease) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Decreasing trend in ecosystem productivity, 4+ measures </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

Ranked Low-moderate due to increasing zooplankton and decreasing forage trends. Patterns in fish condition and productivity also observed. No trend in primary production.

## Risk Element: EcoProd

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/zoopanom-1.png" title="Changes in zooplankton abundance in the MAB for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." alt="Changes in zooplankton abundance in the MAB for large (top left) and small (top right) copepods, Cnidarians (bottom left), and Euphausiids (bottom right), with significant increases (orange) in small copeods and Cnidarians." width="360" />
]

---
## Climate

This element is applied at the species level,
and evaluates risks to species productivity (and therefore to achieving
OY) due to projected climate change factors in the region.

.pull-left-60[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/mab-oa-1.png" title="Locations where bottom aragonite saturation state ($\Omega_{Arag}$; summer only: June-August) were at or below the laboratory-derived sensitivity level for Atlantic sea scallop (left panel) and longfin squid (right panel) for the time periods 2007-2022 (dark cyan) and 2023 only (magenta). Gray circles indicate locations where bottom `$\Omega_{Arag}$` values were above the species specific sensitivity values." alt="Locations where bottom aragonite saturation state ($\Omega_{Arag}$; summer only: June-August) were at or below the laboratory-derived sensitivity level for Atlantic sea scallop (left panel) and longfin squid (right panel) for the time periods 2007-2022 (dark cyan) and 2023 only (magenta). Gray circles indicate locations where bottom `$\Omega_{Arag}$` values were above the species specific sensitivity values." width="100%" />

.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Low climate vulnerability ranking </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Moderate climate vulnerability ranking </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> High climate vulnerability ranking, climate indicators impacting the stock increasing (worsening) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Very high climate vulnerability ranking, climate indicators impacting the stock increasing (worsening) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

.pull-right-40[
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## Distribution Shifts
This element is applied at the
species level, and evaluates risks of species distribution shifts due to
projected climate change in the Northeast US.

.pull-left-60[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/species-dist-1.png" title="Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem: along shelf distance with increasing trend (orange), and depth with decreasing trend indicating deeper water (purple)." alt="Aggregate species distribution metrics for species in the Northeast Large Marine Ecosystem: along shelf distance with increasing trend (orange), and depth with decreasing trend indicating deeper water (purple)." width="576" />

.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Low potential for distribution shifts </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Moderate potential for distribution shifts </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> High potential for distribution shifts, observed distribution shifts </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Very high potential for distribution shifts, observed distribution shifts </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

.pull-right-40[
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

## Estuarine and Coastal Habitat

This element is applied at the species level, and evaluates risk of not
achieving OY due to threats to estuarine and nearshore coastal
habitat/nursery grounds.

.pull-left-60[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/cheswq-1.png" title="Chesapeake Bay water quality trend, 3 year running mean proportion of areas meeting or exceeding quality thresholds based on dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, water clarity, and submerged aquatic vegetation." alt="Chesapeake Bay water quality trend, 3 year running mean proportion of areas meeting or exceeding quality thresholds based on dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, water clarity, and submerged aquatic vegetation." width="504" />

.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Not dependent on nearshore coastal or estuarine habitat </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Estuarine dependent, estuarine condition stable </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Estuarine dependent, estuarine condition fair </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Estuarine dependent, estuarine condition poor </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

]

.pull-right-40[

<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
## Offshore Habitat (new)

This element will be applied at the species level, and evaluates risk of not achieving
OY due to changes in offshore habitat quality and quantity.

.pull-left[
*Potential indicators*

*  Amount of habitat

*  Quality of habitat

*  Other aspects of habitat important to support fish productivity (e.g. cold pool extent, duration, temperature)

]

.pull-right[

*Potential criteria*
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trends in offshore habitat </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Trend in offshore habitat (1-2 measures, increase or decrease) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Trend in offshore habitat (3+ measures, increase or decrease) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Decreasing trend in offshore habitat, 4+ measures </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]

---
class: center, center

# Social and Economic Risk Elements

---
class: top, left
## Commercial Value

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and addresses the risk
of not maximizing fishery value. Revenue serves as a proxy for
commercial profits.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trend and low variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing or high variability in revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant long term revenue decrease </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent decrease in revenue </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

]
.pull-right[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="504" />

]

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease

## Risk element: CommVal

---
## Marine Recreational Angler Trips

This element is assessed at the ecosystem level where it applies equally
to all recreationally fished species. It addresses the risk of not maximizing recreational fishery value and opportunities.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trends in angler trips </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: yellow !important;"> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: yellow !important;"> Increasing or high variability in angler trips </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant long term decreases in angler trips </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent decreases in angler trips </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/rec-op-1.png" title="Recreational effort (number of trips, black) in the Mid-Atlantic, with significant increase (orange line)." alt="Recreational effort (number of trips, black) in the Mid-Atlantic, with significant increase (orange line)." width="504" />
]

Ranked low-moderate risk due to the significant long term increase with high recent variability.

## Risk element: RecVal

---
## Commercial Fishery Resilience (1) - Revenue Diversity

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and addresses the
potential risk of reduced commercial fishery business resilience by
evaluating species diversity of revenue at the permit level.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: lightgreen !important;"> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: lightgreen !important;"> No trend in diversity measures </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing trend or high variance in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant long term downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

]

.pull-right[
<div class="figure">
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/commercial-div-species-div-1.png" alt="Species revenue diversity in the Mid Atlantic." width="504" />
Species revenue diversity in the Mid Atlantic.
</div>
]

With less than 30 years in the time series, trend was not assessed. With no trend, this element ranks low risk. However, a decline prior to 2000 is visually apparent and could be assessed with updated methods for the 2025 risk assessment.

## Risk element: FishRes1

---
## Commercial Fishery Resilience (2) - Shoreside Support

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk of
reduced commercial fishery business resilience due to shoreside support
infrastructure.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trend in shoreside support businesses </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing or high variability in shoreside support businesses </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant recent decrease in one measure of shoreside support businesses </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent decrease in multiple measures of shoreside support businesses </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

One indicator showed a decrease, which represents
moderate-high risk to fishery resilience. Data access has changed but updates should be possible.

## Risk element: FishRes2 
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/Shoresupp1-1.png" title="Shoreside support businesses: Number of Companies" alt="Shoreside support businesses: Number of Companies" width="504" />

<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/Shoresupp2-1.png" title="Shoreside support businesses: Number of Nonemployer entities" alt="Shoreside support businesses: Number of Nonemployer entities" width="504" />
]

---
## Commercial Fishery Resilience (3) -- Fleet Diversity

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk to
maintaining equity in access to fishery resources.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: lightgreen !important;"> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: lightgreen !important;"> No trend in diversity measures </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing trend or high variance in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant long term downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

With less than 30 years in the time series, trend was not assessed. For fleet count a visual trend may be apparent, while for revenue diversity no apparent visual trend exists. With no trend, this element ranks low risk. 
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/commercial-div-1.png" title="Commercial fleet count and revenue diversity in the Mid Atlantic." alt="Commercial fleet count and revenue diversity in the Mid Atlantic." width="576" />

]

## Risk element: ComDiv

---
## Recreational Fleet Diversity (new)

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk to
maintaining equity in recreational access to fishery resources.

.pull-left[
*Potential Indicator*
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/rec-div-1.png" title="Recreational fleet effort diversity (black) in the Mid-Atlantic, with significant decrease (purple line)." alt="Recreational fleet effort diversity (black) in the Mid-Atlantic, with significant decrease (purple line)." width="504" />

]

.pull-right[

*Potential criteria*
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing trend or high variance in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant long term downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent downward trend in diversity measure </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

]

---
.pull-left[
## Fishing Community Vulnerability

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and evaluates the risk of reduced community resilience (vulnerability, reliance,
engagement).

.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Few (&lt;10%) vulnerable fishery dependent communities </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: yellow !important;"> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: yellow !important;"> 10-25% of fishery dependent communities with &gt;3 high vulnerability ratings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> 25-50% of fishery dependent communities with &gt;3 high vulnerability ratings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Majority (&gt;50%) of fishery dependent communities with &gt;3 high vulnerability ratings </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

In past risk assessments, four of the top communities (20%) had three or more of these high risk rankings, so we ranked overall social-cultural risk as low-moderate for these Mid-Atlantic communities. However, newer analyses evaluating EJ vulnerability could be incorporated into this analysis.
]
## Risk element: Social 
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/commercial-engagement-1.png" title="Commercial engagement, reliance, and environmental justice vulnerability for the top commercially engaged and reliant fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic." alt="Commercial engagement, reliance, and environmental justice vulnerability for the top commercially engaged and reliant fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic." width="504" />

]

---
## Commercial Fishing Production
This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and describes the risk
of not optimizing domestic commercial fishing production from
Council-managed species and total commercial fishing production in the
Mid-Atlantic.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trend or increase in seafood landings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing or high variability in seafood landings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant long term decrease in seafood landings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent decrease in seafood landings </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

There is a significant long term decrease in total commercial landings and U.S. seafood landings in the Mid-Atlantic, indicating moderate-high risk using previous criteria.

]

.pull-right[

]

## Risk element: ComFood

---
## Recreational/Subsistence Food Production

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and describes the risk
of not maintaining personal food production.

.pull-left[
.table[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Risk Level </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> No trend or increase in recreational landings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> Low-Moderate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Increasing or high variability in recreational landings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Moderate-High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; font-weight: bold;background-color: orange !important;"> Significant long term decrease in recreational landings </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 10em; "> High </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 30em; "> Significant recent decrease in recreational landings </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

]

.pull-right[
Indicators: Recreational harvest
<img src="20240409_SOE_MAFMCrisk_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="504" />
]

This significant long term decrease in both recreational landings represents a moderate-high risk to food production.

## Risk element: RecFood

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2024 Update with new elements

.pull-left[
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> PreyA </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> PredP </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OffHab </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Mackerel and dogfish **Fstatus** risk reduced to low, Summer flounder risk increased to high. Spiny dogfish **Bstatus** risk decreased to low
* Indicators in development for new Prey Availability, Predation Pressure, and Offshore Habitat elements
]

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes2 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Recreational value risk increased from low to low-moderate
* Recreational diversity added, risk criteria in development
] 
]

.pull-right[ 
*Species and Sector level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 10px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Interact </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OSW1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OSW2 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OtherUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> tbd </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
.contrib[
* Management fully updated for existing elements 
* Offshore wind (OSW) risks split into 2 new elements in development, non-OSW uses added
]
]

???