State of the Ecosystem Structure Proposed 2024

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

.title[
# State of the Ecosystem Structure Proposed 2024
]
.subtitle[
## SOE January Synthesis Meeting 17 January 2024
]
.author[
### Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Hyde, Andy Beet, Brandon Beltz, Geret DePiper, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith Northeast Fisheries Science Center and all SOE contributors
]

---

class: top, left

## New PAGE 3 this year; 2023 Highlights/Overview/Postmortem

.pull-left[
Needs a name

Bulleted and graphical observations of anomalous conditions in 2023

*  Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf
*  Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer
*  GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale
*  Heatwaves (??)
*  Gulf Stream changes radically altering shelf break habitats

THIS WILL BE DECIDED ON WEDNESDAY  
]

.pull-right[
![:img GOM chlorophyll anomaly](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/W_1998_2023-GOM-CHLOR_A-STACKED_TIMESERIES.PNG)
]

---
## Report structure 2024: towards improved synthesis

.pull-left[
* Performance relative to management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Objectives
    - Seafood production
    - Profits
    - Recreational opportunities
    - Stability
    - Social and cultural
    - Protected species
]

.pull-right[
* Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    - *What* does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    - *Why* this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
        - Multiple drivers
        - Regime shifts
        - Ecosystem reorganization
* Risk categories
    - *Long term trends and current status:*
        - *Distribution shifts*
        - *Changes in productivity*
        - *Changes in timing*
        - *Changes in physiology*
    - Other ocean uses
        - Offshore wind development
]
---
# 2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

.center[
![:img Climate icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//3_CLIMATE.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Wind icon made by EDAB, 25%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//24.WIND.png)
]

.center[
![:img Hydrography icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//1_HYDROGRAPHY.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//9_PHYTOPLANKTON.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Forage fish icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//13_FORAGEFISH.png) &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Apex predators icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//17.APEXPREDATORS.png)  &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; ![:img Other human uses icon made by EDAB, 15%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//8_OTHERHUMANUSES.png) 
]

---
## A suggested revision

## Risks to Meeting Manaagement Objectives

.pull-left[

### Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation
Indicators of Distribution Shifts
Drivers
Implications

### Risks to Seasonal Management/Timed Closures
Indicators of Changing Timing (Phenology)
Drivers
Implications
]

.pull-right[

### Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding
Indicators of Changing Productivity
Drivers 
Implications

Indicators of Changing Mortality
Drivers 
Implications

]

---
## Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation

Distribution shifts: species

.pull-left[
![:img black sea bass survey](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/black_sea_bass_kde.png)
]

.pull-right[
![:img summer flounder survey](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/summer_flounder_kde.png)
]

---
## Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation

Distribution shifts: multispecies

.pull-left[

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="504" />

]

---
## What drives distribution shifts?
Habitat suitability

.pull-left[
### Long-term change in thermal habitat
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="504" />

]

.pull-right[
### Change in source water

<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.png" width="504" />
]

Environmental predictors of habitat suitability and occurrence of cetaceans in the western North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) and its food: (II) interannual variations in biomass of Calanus spp. on western North Atlantic shelves
Ocean Regime Shift is Driving the Collapse of the North Atlantic Right Whale Population

---
## What drives distribution shifts?

.pull-left[
### Cold pool
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="504" />

]

.pull-right[
### Warm core rings
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" width="504" />

]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/cropped_ln_density-predicted.png")
background-size: 600px
background-position: right
## What drives distribution shifts?

### Movement of prey

.pull-left[
Forage fish habitat occupancy, 
![:img Kevin's forage fish occupancy maps ](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Friedlandetal2023_fallforageoccupancy.png)
.contrib[
Fig 4. Mean occupancy habitats at the 20% (light blue) and 80% (dark blue) quantile thresholds across forage species; gray shows the model extent. Taxa with autumn models include (D) Round Herring, (E) longfin inshore squid, (F) Atlantic Chub Mackerel, (G) Spanish Sardine, (H) Butterfish, and (I) Atlantic Thread Herring. Offshore wind lease areas are outlined in red. The dashed line marks the 100-m depth contour.
]
]

.pull-right[

]

---
## Distribution shifts: Implications

*  Allocations/species availability based on previous distributions no longer work
*  Species interactions - by catch
*  Movement of protected species, new overlaps with fisheries
*  Survey catchability
*  Expect declines in forage fish and NARW foraging with declines in Calanus (GOM)

---
### Risks to Seasonal Management/Timed Closures
Indicators of Changing Timing (Phenology)

.pull-left[
Biological Observations
*  Phytoplankton bloom timing
*  Zooplankton
*  HMS Migration
*  Baleen whale habitat
*  Others?
]

.pull-right[

]

---
## What drives timing change?

Thermal transition dates

.pull-left-30[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="504" />

]

.pull-right-70[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" width="504" />

]

Mixing/stratification timing

---
## Timing change: Implications

Could result in mismatch if prey and predator shifts are not synchronized'

Survey catchability nonstationary

---
## Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks:  Productivity change
.pull-left-30[
Biological Observations
*  Ecosystem productivity
*  Forage fish energy content
*  Fish Condition
*  Long-term decreases in fish productivity
*  Recruitment success
*  Seabird productivity (GOM)
*  Salmon? (GOM)
]

.pull-left-70[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" width="100%" />

]
---
## Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change

.pull-left[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" width="864" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="864" />

]

---
## Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change

.pull-left[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="504" />

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="504" />

]

---
## Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change

.pull-left[

<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="504" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="504" />
]
---
## Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change (GOM)

.pull-left[
Seabird productivity (GOM)

]

.pull-right[
Salmon (GOM)
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="504" />

]

---
## What drives productivty change?

.pull-left[
* Temperature exceeding thresholds
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="648" />

]

.pull-right[
*  Food conditions/prey availability 
   -   Primary productivity
       -   Nutrients
           -   Water masses
           -   Mixing
-   Phytoplankton composition
-   Zooplankton productivity
    -   Calanus lipids (GOM)
    -   Zooplankton composition
    -   Spatio-temporal species distribution models reveal dynamic indicators for ecosystem-based fisheries management - rapid zooplankton changes and associated changes in benthivore condition and stability in the Gulf of Maine

*  Predation (indices of predator status/abundance)
]
    
---
## Productivity change: Implications

Ecosystem overfishing (i.e. changes in the amount of productivity that can sustainably be removed from the system)
Periods of low condition indicate poor health, possibly leading to slower growth and lower recruitment success

---
## Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

MORTALITY/Physiological change

Biological Observations
*  Changes in metabolic rates (growth, condition, reproduction)
*  Disease
*  Mortality
*  Energy content

---
## What drives physoilogical change

.pull-left[
Temperature
<img src="20240117_SOEoverview_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="504" />
Oxygen

]

.pull-right[
Ocean acidification
![:img OA, 90%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/Figure 4 - Grace Saba_2024.png)
]

---
## Physiological change: Implications

.pull-left-30[
Reduced stock and condition - Changes in fish size affect marketability and productivity
]

.pull-right-70[
Reduced growth
![:img OA, 80%](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/ecodata/raw/master/workshop/images/Figure 5 - Grace Saba_2024.png)
]

---
background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images//noaa-iea.png")
background-size: 350px
background-position: right bottom

## THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 61 contributors from 14 institutions  UPDATE THIS!

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Kimberly Bastille 
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA) 
Andy Beet 
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries) 
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Joseph Caracappa 
Doug Christel (GARFO) 
Patricia Clay 
Lisa Colburn 
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division) 
Geret DePiper 
Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS) 
Hubert du Pontavice 
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Michael Fogarty 
Paula Fratantoni 
Kevin Friedland 
Marjy Friedrichs (VIMS) 
Sarah Gaichas 
Ben Galuardi (GARFO) 
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth) 
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) 
Sean Hardison 
Kimberly Hyde 
John Kosik 
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Scott Large 
Andrew Lipsky 
Sean Lucey 
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program) 
Chris Melrose 
Shannon Meseck 
Ryan Morse 
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC) 
Kimberly Murray 
Chris Orphanides 
Richard Pace 
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR) 
Charles Perretti 
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation) 
Grace Saba (Rutgers) 
Vincent Saba 
Sarah Salois 
Chris Schillaci (GARFO) 
Dave Secor (CBL) 
Angela Silva 
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST) 
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University) 
Laurel Smith 
Talya tenBrink (GARFO) 
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office) 
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research) 
John Walden 
Harvey Walsh 
Changhua Weng 
Mark Wuenschel

]
]

---
## References

.contrib[
NULL
]

## Additional resources
.pull-left[
* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

]
.pull-right[
* [SOE Reports on the web](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/new-england-mid-atlantic/ecosystems/state-ecosystem-reports-northeast-us-shelf)

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [Draft indicator catalog](https://noaa-edab.github.io/catalog/)

.contrib[

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
* Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov>
]
]