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State of the Ecosystem Structure
Proposed 2024

SOE January Synthesis Meeting
17 January 2024

Sarah Gaichas, Kimberly Hyde, Andy Beet, Brandon Beltz, Geret DePiper, Scott Large, Sean Lucey, Laurel Smith
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
and all SOE contributors

1 / 26

New PAGE 3 this year; 2023 Highlights/Overview/Postmortem

Needs a name

Bulleted and graphical observations of anomalous conditions in 2023

  • Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf
  • Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer
  • GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale
  • Heatwaves (??)
  • Gulf Stream changes radically altering shelf break habitats

THIS WILL BE DECIDED ON WEDNESDAY

GOM chlorophyll anomaly

2 / 26

Report structure 2024: towards improved synthesis

  • Performance relative to management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Objectives
    • Seafood production
    • Profits
    • Recreational opportunities
    • Stability
    • Social and cultural
    • Protected species
  • Risks to meeting fishery management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Risk categories
    • Long term trends and current status:
      • Distribution shifts
      • Changes in productivity
      • Changes in timing
      • Changes in physiology
    • Other ocean uses
      • Offshore wind development
3 / 26

2023 Risks to meeting fishery management objectives

Climate icon made by EDAB       Wind icon made by EDAB

Hydrography icon made by EDAB       Phytoplankon icon made by EDAB       Forage fish icon made by EDAB       Apex predators icon made by EDAB       Other human uses icon made by EDAB

4 / 26

A suggested revision

Risks to Meeting Manaagement Objectives

Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation

Indicators of Distribution Shifts Drivers Implications

Risks to Seasonal Management/Timed Closures

Indicators of Changing Timing (Phenology) Drivers Implications

Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Indicators of Changing Productivity Drivers Implications

Indicators of Changing Mortality Drivers Implications

5 / 26

Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation

Distribution shifts: species

black sea bass survey

summer flounder survey

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Risks to Spatial Management/Allocation

Distribution shifts: multispecies

7 / 26

What drives distribution shifts?

Habitat suitability

Long-term change in thermal habitat

Change in source water

Environmental predictors of habitat suitability and occurrence of cetaceans in the western North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) and its food: (II) interannual variations in biomass of Calanus spp. on western North Atlantic shelves Ocean Regime Shift is Driving the Collapse of the North Atlantic Right Whale Population

8 / 26

What drives distribution shifts?

Cold pool

Warm core rings

9 / 26

What drives distribution shifts?

Movement of prey

Forage fish habitat occupancy, Kevin's forage fish occupancy maps

Fig 4. Mean occupancy habitats at the 20% (light blue) and 80% (dark blue) quantile thresholds across forage species; gray shows the model extent. Taxa with autumn models include (D) Round Herring, (E) longfin inshore squid, (F) Atlantic Chub Mackerel, (G) Spanish Sardine, (H) Butterfish, and (I) Atlantic Thread Herring. Offshore wind lease areas are outlined in red. The dashed line marks the 100-m depth contour.

10 / 26

Distribution shifts: Implications

  • Allocations/species availability based on previous distributions no longer work
  • Species interactions - by catch
  • Movement of protected species, new overlaps with fisheries
  • Survey catchability
  • Expect declines in forage fish and NARW foraging with declines in Calanus (GOM)
11 / 26

Risks to Seasonal Management/Timed Closures

Indicators of Changing Timing (Phenology)

Biological Observations

  • Phytoplankton bloom timing
  • Zooplankton
  • HMS Migration
  • Baleen whale habitat
  • Others?
12 / 26

What drives timing change?

Thermal transition dates

Mixing/stratification timing

13 / 26

Timing change: Implications

Could result in mismatch if prey and predator shifts are not synchronized'

Survey catchability nonstationary

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Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change

Biological Observations

  • Ecosystem productivity
  • Forage fish energy content
  • Fish Condition
  • Long-term decreases in fish productivity
  • Recruitment success
  • Seabird productivity (GOM)
  • Salmon? (GOM)

15 / 26

Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change

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Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change

17 / 26

Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change

18 / 26

Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

Risks: Productivity change (GOM)

Seabird productivity (GOM)

Salmon (GOM)

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What drives productivty change?

  • Temperature exceeding thresholds
  • Food conditions/prey availability
    • Primary productivity
      • Nutrients
        • Water masses
        • Mixing
  • Phytoplankton composition
  • Zooplankton productivity
    • Calanus lipids (GOM)
    • Zooplankton composition
    • Spatio-temporal species distribution models reveal dynamic indicators for ecosystem-based fisheries management - rapid zooplankton changes and associated changes in benthivore condition and stability in the Gulf of Maine
  • Predation (indices of predator status/abundance)
20 / 26

Productivity change: Implications

Ecosystem overfishing (i.e. changes in the amount of productivity that can sustainably be removed from the system) Periods of low condition indicate poor health, possibly leading to slower growth and lower recruitment success

21 / 26

Risks to Quota Management/Rebuilding

MORTALITY/Physiological change

Biological Observations

  • Changes in metabolic rates (growth, condition, reproduction)
  • Disease
  • Mortality
  • Energy content
22 / 26

What drives physoilogical change

Temperature Oxygen

Ocean acidification OA

23 / 26

Physiological change: Implications

Reduced stock and condition - Changes in fish size affect marketability and productivity

Reduced growth OA

24 / 26

THANK YOU! SOEs made possible by (at least) 61 contributors from 14 institutions UPDATE THIS!

Kimberly Bastille
Aaron Beaver (Anchor QEA)
Andy Beet
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Mandy Bromilow (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Joseph Caracappa
Doug Christel (GARFO)
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Jennifer Cudney (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Tobey Curtis (NMFS Atlantic HMS Management Division)
Geret DePiper
Dan Dorfman (NOAA-NOS-NCCOS)
Hubert du Pontavice
Emily Farr (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Marjy Friedrichs (VIMS)
Sarah Gaichas
Ben Galuardi (GARFO)
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
John Kosik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Scott Large
Andrew Lipsky
Sean Lucey
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society’s Seabird Restoration Program)
Chris Melrose
Shannon Meseck
Ryan Morse
Brandon Muffley (MAFMC)
Kimberly Murray
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Tom Parham (Maryland DNR)
Charles Perretti
CJ Pellerin (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Grace Roskar (NMFS Office of Habitat Conservation)
Grace Saba (Rutgers)
Vincent Saba
Sarah Salois
Chris Schillaci (GARFO)
Dave Secor (CBL)
Angela Silva
Adrienne Silver (UMass/SMAST)
Emily Slesinger (Rutgers University)
Laurel Smith
Talya tenBrink (GARFO)
Bruce Vogt (NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office)
Ron Vogel (UMD Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies and NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research)
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Changhua Weng
Mark Wuenschel

25 / 26

References

NULL

Additional resources

26 / 26

New PAGE 3 this year; 2023 Highlights/Overview/Postmortem

Needs a name

Bulleted and graphical observations of anomalous conditions in 2023

  • Warm water everywhere EXCEPT in Spring on the NEUS shelf
  • Hypoxia and mortality events in NJ coastal ocean this summer
  • GOM summer phytoplankton bloom off the scale
  • Heatwaves (??)
  • Gulf Stream changes radically altering shelf break habitats

THIS WILL BE DECIDED ON WEDNESDAY

GOM chlorophyll anomaly

2 / 26
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