class: top, left background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/NEFMCUmassDGMRI_logos.png) background-size: 350px background-position: top right # EBFM "prototype" MSE in New England ## Gavin Fay, Lisa Kerr, Emily Liljestrand, Jerelle Jesse, Madeleine Guyant Goal: Demonstrate how MSE can be used to evaluate EBFM management strategies for a Georges Bank Ecosystem Production Unit. Process: * Worked iteratively with management committee and advisors as stakeholders * Combined existing tools to evaluate EBFM procedures: Link multispecies model to MSE framework with built in single species assessment tools Fundamental objectives: * Maintain or increase inflation adjusted total value for the fishery * Preserve ecosystem function and structure * Maintain stock complex biomass around levels that optimize fishing opportunities * Prevent overfishing * Response of regulations to stocks at low abundance, and recovery of depleted stocks * Reduce regulatory complexity --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/pMSEhydra.png) background-size: 830px background-position: right # [EBFM pMSE](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/pMSE-Final-Report2.pdf) .pull-left-30[ ## Summary Hydra: multispecies operating model conditioned on Georges Bank data within MSE framework as prototype test of EBFM strategies. Results: additional flexibility and increased yield possible with EBFM "ceilings and floors" without increased risk to single stocks. ] .pull-right-70[] --- # Operating model building blocks .pull-left[ ## Multispecies catch at length Hydra <a name=cite-gaichas_combining_2017></a>([Gaichas, et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/552/2669545/Combining-stock-multispecies-and-ecosystem-level)) *Hydra-Associated GitHub repositories* * hydra-sim (Simulation Model Wiki): https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/hydra_sim/wiki * hydra-sim (pMSE/estimation fork): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydra_sim * hydradata (mskeyrun fork): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydradata * hydra-diag (diagnostics): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydra_diag ] .pull-right[ ## Groundfish MSE framework <a name=cite-mazur_consequences_2023></a>([Mazur, et al., 2023](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623000450)) *Groundfish MSE repository, branches, and tools* * main branch (including wiki): https://github.com/lkerr/groundfish-MSE * pMSE branch: https://github.com/lkerr/groundfish-MSE/tree/JJ-EBFM * includes [ASAP model](https://noaa-fisheries-integrated-toolbox.github.io/ASAP) and Plan B smooth * uses SAMtool state space surplus production assessment for complexes * index-based "floors" for stocks within complexes ] --- # Setup .pull-left-60[ ## Management Alternatives **SS Static** .contrib[Single-species management, stock-specific assessment and catch advice.] **SS Dynamic** .contrib[Single-species as above with dynamic reference points.] **Feeding Complex Static** .contrib[Stock complex management and assessment: trophic complexes.] **Feeding Complex Dynamic** .contrib[Stock complex as above with dynamic reference points.] **Gear Complex Static** .contrib[Stock complex management and assessment: gear-based complexes.] **Gear Complex Dynamic** .contrib[Stock complex as above dynamic reference points.] *Static* = full time series for reference points *Dynamic* = most recent 10 years for reference points ] .pull-right-40[ ## Operating Model Scenarios * Base * Fleet dynamics (Adjust q for economic value) * Initial biomass (Below base) * Predator pressure (Increase M1 <30cm) * Prey change (Increase other food) ] --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSEss_alts.png) background-size: 990px background-position: center bottom # Single species management alternatives --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSEms_alts.png) background-size: 990px background-position: center bottom # Multispecies management alternatives --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSE_keytakeaways.png) background-size: 1100px background-position: center bottom # Key takeaways * Stock complex management resulted in higher and less variable catches (results below are for the trophic based complexes). * Higher catches did not come at the expense of stock conservation status * Catch closer to catch advice under stock complex management * Results similar for different operating model initial condition scenarios: red: high B, brown: high predators, green: high prey, blue: low B, purple: $F ??? Increased Predator Pressure (higher M1 on forage) * More variable total annual catches * Higher under-used quota * Lower catches Increased Prey availability (more other food for modeled predators) * All the above, plus fewer stocks below limits Price-based fleet dynamics (higher relative catchability on more valuable stocks) * More stocks below limits --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSEradar_plot.png) background-size: 700px background-position: right .pull-left-40[ # Relative performance of management alternatives Points closer to the exterior edge indicate a better performance for the metric than points closer to the center. * Stock complex management generally out preformed single species based management. * Gear based complexes resulted in higher variability and more underutilized quota than the trophic based complexes. ] --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSEmetric_short_boxplots.png) background-size: 1000px background-position: right bottom ## Short term First 5 years of projection --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSEmetric_long_boxplots.png) background-size: 1000px background-position: right bottom ## Long term Last 20 years of projection --- # Outreach materials .pull-left[ ## Summary pages * pMSE Overview * Management Objectives and Performance Metrics * Management Alternatives * Results Engagement * Operating Models * Assessment Models ] .pull-right[ ## Rshiny https://gavinfay.shinyapps.io/results-viewer/  ] --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/NEFMCUmassDGMRI_logos.png) background-size: 450px background-position: top right # Thank you! ## Additional Resources [EBFM pMSE June 2023 New England Council](https://www.nefmc.org/library/june-2023-ecosystem-based-fishery-management-ebfm-committee) * [June Presentation](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/2_Draft-final-Prototype-Management-Evaluation-pMSE-simulation-results-and-output-2nd-mailing_2023-07-06-181333_tsor.pdf) * [September Update Presentation](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/15C5KYXyPWy-TYKzAeWPsGH_FyvPLZJMf0mpqHJaqTjI/edit#slide=id.g279865ce07c_0_0) * [Final Report](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/pMSE-Final-Report2.pdf) * [One Page Summaries](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/4b_pMSE-one-page-sumamries_2023-07-06-181512_pgju.pdf) * ICES WGSAM sharepoint: Background Documents ## References .contrib[ <a name=bib-gaichas_combining_2017></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et al.](#cite-gaichas_combining_2017) (2017). "Combining stock, multispecies, and ecosystem level fishery objectives within an operational management procedure: simulations to start the conversation". In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_ 74.2, pp. 552-565. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: [10.1093/icesjms/fsw119](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsw119). URL: [https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/552/2669545/Combining-stock-multispecies-and-ecosystem-level](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/552/2669545/Combining-stock-multispecies-and-ecosystem-level) (visited on Oct. 18, 2017). <a name=bib-mazur_consequences_2023></a>[Mazur, M. D. et al.](#cite-mazur_consequences_2023) (2023). "Consequences of ignoring climate impacts on New England groundfish stock assessment and management". In: _Fisheries Research_ 262, p. 106652. ISSN: 0165-7836. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106652](https://doi.org/https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1016%2Fj.fishres.2023.106652). URL: [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623000450](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623000450). ] .footnote[ Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations Contact: <gfay@umassd.edu> ]