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MSE Tools
US Overview

ICES WKMSEDEV
26 September 2023

Sarah Gaichas, Presenter


Contributors: Robert Ahrens, Jon Deroba, Kathryn Doering, Sarah Gaichas,
Kristin Marshall, Cassidy Peterson, Desiree Tommasi, Ben Williams

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US MSE Tools Overview

NOAA MSE Working group

  • Who
  • What
  • When
  • How
  • Why

NOAA Fisheries Integrated Toolbox: presentation by Kathryn Doering: kathryn.doering@noaa.gov

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Questions

  1. Name of MSE/MSE topic

  2. Multiple choice: Is the software used

    • custom built for the project,

    • directly or modified from an existing toolbox, or

    • a combination?

  3. Coding environment (ADMB, TMB, R, FORTRAN, C++, other?)

  4. Link to code or toolbox, if possible, or provide a contact for the tool/code

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Alaska: Ben Williams

Most involved using CEATTLE (ADMB) or RCEATTLE (R/TMB). Minimal MSE uses of these models to date; they have been focused on multi-species and climate-informed assessments.

Rceattle https://github.com/grantdadams/Rceattle

A spatial framework that is centered around sablefish in Alaska (R/TMB) is setup to be used in an MSE framework. We are currently generalizing this model to explore the HCR for sablefish and other fisheries - and looking for a postdoc(s).

Spatial sablefish https://github.com/Craig44/SpatialSablefishAssessment

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There are a few structural differences between these models, but they are quite similar. Additionally, getting a model with the diet data etc. to converge is a challenge in and of itself, though both models can be used in a MSE framework.

Hawaii-Western Pacific: Rob Ahrens

  1. MSE for priority species identified in the Jurisdictional Coral Reef Fishery Management Plan for Department of Aquatic and Wildlife Resources in Guam. These are MSEs for data limited species.

  2. The process mainly uses the LBSPR package Hordyk A (2021). LBSPR: Length-Based Spawning Potential Ratio. R package version 0.1.6,https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=LBSPR.

  3. Coding environment is R

  4. Not currently available

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Northwest: Kristin Marshall

Hake MSE climate-robustness testing of HCRs to changes and variability in recruitment, growth, and distribution. Developing and testing one year ahead recruitment forecasts using predictors from ROMS, and larval and juvenile survey data. Long-term projections developed from ROMS variables will inform future recruitment scenarios. https://github.com/pacific-hake/pacifichakemse

Sablefish MSE consequences of spatial vs non-spatial assessments for the performance of the fishery in all regions

https://www.pacificsablefishscience.org/2021-mse-workshop

SS3MSE by Kathryn Doering et al: https://nmfs-fish-tools.github.io/SSMSE/

Atlantis work by Kaplan et al https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00652/full

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Southwest: Desiree Tommasi

North Pacific albacore tuna MSE (completed)

The software used is custom built but relies on SS operating/estimating models executed in R (with SS models and also a C++ projection code)

Code is not in a public repository, but please contact Desiree if interested. Report overview of framework and output.

North Pacific bluefin tuna MSE (in progress)

The software used is custom built but relies on SS operating/estimating models (builds on albacore MSE code) executed in R (with SS models)

Preliminary code: https://github.com/detommas/PBF_MSE

Pacific sardine MSE (completed)

SSMSE R package with custom HCRs and recruitment variability scenarios executed in R (with SS models)

Code: https://github.com/detommas/PBF_MSE and paper (Wildermuth et al.) accepted in CJFAS

Swordfish MSE (completed) MSE evaluated different types of closure; feedback was on fisher behaviour rather than the population as the US catch is a minor fraction of total catch for this species

Custom built tools in R

See Smith et al. 2023:
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.630607/full

Contact: desiree.tommasi@noaa.gov

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Let me know if you need anything else. In terms of discussions, I would be particularly interested in the "how to reduce run times" one (for the albacore MSE we only could run a few uncertainty scenarios for the full, i.e. with assessment, MSE). With PBF we had 100+ HCRs to test and so decided to run a quick "perfect info" MSE (i.e. no assessment) and managers were able to trim the HCRs down to 12 looking at those preliminary results. In November we are meeting to decide on the final uncertainty grid and so it would be great to hear what ICES has been up to on this topic. In terms of presentation of results, I would be interested in hearing if ICES MSEs present results across a reference set of scenarios plus the robustness ones separately, and for the former, if each of the potential OMs is given equal weight.

Southeast: Cassidy Peterson

(Gulf) Red snapper in GOMex (Yuying Zhang): http://gomredsnappermsetool.fiu.edu/

(South Atlantic) in progress dolphin MSE; TMB & R; spatial and seasonal length-based model Adapted from custom-built MSE for black sea bass and cobia comparing MP performance wrt comm v. rec mgmt objectives (Matt Damiano & Jie Cao)

SS3-based custom examples: https://github.com/CassidyPeterson-NOAA/SS_MSE; https://github.com/CassidyPeterson-NOAA/SS_MSE_AssessmentFrequency

Open MSE-BAM presentation by Cassidy

Oshima, Megumi C., "A Management Strategy Evaluation of the Impacts of Interspecific Competition and Recreational Fishery Dynamics on Vermilion Snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens) in the Gulf of Mexico" (2020). Dissertations. 1833. https://aquila.usm.edu/dissertations/1833

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Northeast: Jon Deroba, Sarah Gaichas

Woods Hole Assessment Model (WHAM) state space R/TMB framework with single species, single area MSE capabilities:

Summer Flounder recreational discards MSE combined two custom built models:

WHAM simulations of "Plan B" assessment methods: https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/full/10.1139/cjfas-2022-0045

Spatial MSE tool SPASAM: presentation by Jon. EBFM MSE by Fay et al: presentation under multispecies OMs

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US MSE Tools Overview

NOAA MSE Working group

  • Who
  • What
  • When
  • How
  • Why

NOAA Fisheries Integrated Toolbox: presentation by Kathryn Doering: kathryn.doering@noaa.gov

2 / 9

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