class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide .title[ # Multispecies Operating Models ] .subtitle[ ## ICES WKMSEDEV<br /> 28 September 2023 ] .author[ ### Sarah Gaichas, Presenter<br /><br /><br />Contributors: Andy Beet, Joe Caracappa, Gavin Fay (UMass Dartmouth), Sarah Gaichas, Robert Gamble,<br />Madeleine Guyant (UMass Dartmouth), Jerelle Jesse (GMRI/UMaine), Lisa Kerr (GMRI/UMaine),<br />Emily Liljestrand (UMass/NEFSC), Sean Lucey, Maria Cristina Perez (UMass Dartmouth) ] --- class: top, left # Multispecies and Ecosystem Operating Models ## Overview Combining existing tools to evaluate EBFM procedures: Link multispecies model to MSE framework with built in single species assessment tools for New England prototype EBFM MSE (pMSE) Fundamental objectives: * Maintain or increase inflation adjusted total value for the fishery * Preserve ecosystem function and structure * Maintain stock complex biomass around levels that optimize fishing opportunities * Prevent overfishing * Response of regulations to stocks at low abundance, and recovery of depleted stocks * Reduce regulatory complexity Example explanatory materials, including Rshiny for exploring results p.s. Food web model Rpath MSE capabilities p.p.s. Atlantis potential --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/pMSEhydra.png) background-size: 830px background-position: right # [EBFM pMSE](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/pMSE-Final-Report2.pdf) .pull-left-30[ ## Gavin Fay, Lisa Kerr, Madeleine Guyant, Jerelle Jesse, Emily Liljestrand Hydra: multispecies operating model conditioned on Georges Bank data within MSE framework as prototype test of EBFM strategies. Results: additional flexibility and increased yield possible with EBFM "ceilings and floors" without increased risk to single stocks. ] .pull-right-70[] --- # Operating model building blocks .pull-left[ ## Multispecies catch at length Hydra <a name=cite-gaichas_combining_2017></a>([Gaichas et al., 2017](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/552/2669545/Combining-stock-multispecies-and-ecosystem-level)) *Hydra-Associated GitHub repositories* * hydra-sim (Simulation Model Wiki): https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/hydra_sim/wiki * hydra-sim (estimation fork): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydra_sim * hydradata (estimation fork): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydradata * hydra-diag (diagnostics): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydra_diag ] .pull-right[ ## Groundfish MSE framework <a name=cite-mazur_consequences_2023></a>([Mazur et al., 2023](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623000450)) *Groundfish MSE repository, branches, and tools* * main branch (including wiki): https://github.com/lkerr/groundfish-MSE * pMSE branch: https://github.com/lkerr/groundfish-MSE/tree/JJ-EBFM * includes [ASAP model](https://noaa-fisheries-integrated-toolbox.github.io/ASAP) and Plan B smooth * uses SAMtool state space surplus production assessment ] --- # Setup .pull-left[ ## Management Alternatives * Single-species management, with stock-specific assessments and catch advice. * Single-species management, with stock-specific assessments and catch advice and dynamic reference points. * Stock complex management, with stock-complex level assessments and abundance index thresholds. * Stock complex management, with stock-complex level assessments and abundance index thresholds, with gear-based stock complexes. * Stock complex management, with stock-complex level assessments and dynamic reference points. ] .pull-right[ ## Operating Model Scenarios * Base * Fleet dynamics (Adjust q for economic value) * Initial biomass (Below base) * Predator pressure (Increase M1 <30cm) * Prey change (Increase other food) ] --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSEss_alts.png) background-size: 990px background-position: center bottom # Single species management alternatives --- background-image: url(https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Fayetal_pMSEms_alts.png) background-size: 990px background-position: center bottom # Multispecies management alternatives --- # Example Results .pull-left-60[  ] .pull-right-40[  ] --- # Outreach materials .pull-left[ ## Summary pages * pMSE Overview * Management Objectives and Performance Metrics * Management Alternatives * Results Engagement * Operating Models * Assessment Models ] .pull-right[ ## Rshiny https://gavinfay.shinyapps.io/results-viewer/ ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/Balance_concept.png") background-size: 700px background-position: right # More Potential Ecosystem Operating Models ## Atlantis &darr; and Rpath &rarr; .pull-left[  ] .pull-right[] --- # Food web responses to management? ## [Rpath](https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/Rpath) <a name=cite-lucey_conducting_2020></a>([Lucey et al., 2020](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380020301290)) with MSE capability <a name=cite-lucey_evaluating_2021></a>([Lucey et al., 2021](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783620302976)) .pull-left[  ] .pull-right[  ] [Rpath MSE course code](https://github.com/thefaylab/cinar-mse-projects/blob/main/multispecies/RpathOM_HCR_PSPS.md) --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/herrup10pann.png") background-size: 830px background-position: right bottom ## Herring MSE food web model results: ecosystem tradeoffs Tradeoffs between forage groups and mixed impacts to predators apparent when multiple species and full predator prey interaction feedbacks can be included .pull-left-30[ * Rpath Ecosense functions evaluate parameter uncertainty within a scenario * Now we have MSE closed loop possibilities in Rpath ([Lucey et al., 2021](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783620302976)) * Can implement HCRs with predator prey interactions ] .pull-right-70[ ] --- background-image: url("https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/fwcompresults.png") background-size: 780px background-position: right bottom ## Herring MSE food web model results: ecosystem uncertainty? .pull-left-30[ Compare 10% change (green, same as previous slide gray boxes) with more extreme "herring" biomass: * 50% increase from base herring biomass (red) * 50% decrease from base herring biomass (blue) More system uncertainty with increased herring biomass? ] .pull-right-70[ ] --- background-image: url("https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S030438002200148X-gr3_lrg.jpg") background-size: 500px background-position: right # Atlantis NEUSv2: **major** update .pull-left[ ## Joe Carracappa, Andy Beet, Robert Gamble * Forcing with GLORYS12V1 and primary production in the newly calibrated model <a name=cite-caracappa_northeast_2022></a>([Caracappa et al., 2022](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438002200148X)) * Running in the cloud via NOAA HPC ## In progress * Sensitivity to fishing scenarios * Testing ecosystem overfishing indicators for the Northeast US * Integrating spatial fleets and ports of origin * Climate projections using MOM-6 planned .footnote[https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/neus-atlantis] ] .pull-right[] --- ## References .contrib[ <a name=bib-caracappa_northeast_2022></a>[Caracappa, J. C. et al.](#cite-caracappa_northeast_2022) (2022). "A northeast United States Atlantis marine ecosystem model with ocean reanalysis and ocean color forcing". En. In: _Ecological Modelling_ 471, p. 110038. ISSN: 0304-3800. DOI: [10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110038](https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.ecolmodel.2022.110038). URL: [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438002200148X](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438002200148X) (visited on Aug. 08, 2022). <a name=bib-gaichas_combining_2017></a>[Gaichas, S. K. et al.](#cite-gaichas_combining_2017) (2017). "Combining stock, multispecies, and ecosystem level fishery objectives within an operational management procedure: simulations to start the conversation". In: _ICES Journal of Marine Science_ 74.2, pp. 552-565. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: [10.1093/icesjms/fsw119](https://doi.org/10.1093%2Ficesjms%2Ffsw119). URL: [https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/552/2669545/Combining-stock-multispecies-and-ecosystem-level](https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/552/2669545/Combining-stock-multispecies-and-ecosystem-level) (visited on Oct. 18, 2017). <a name=bib-lucey_evaluating_2021></a>[Lucey, S. M. et al.](#cite-lucey_evaluating_2021) (2021). "Evaluating fishery management strategies using an ecosystem model as an operating model". En. In: _Fisheries Research_ 234, p. 105780. ISSN: 0165-7836. DOI: [10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105780](https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.fishres.2020.105780). URL: [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783620302976](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783620302976) (visited on Dec. 09, 2020). <a name=bib-lucey_conducting_2020></a>[Lucey, S. M. et al.](#cite-lucey_conducting_2020) (2020). "Conducting reproducible ecosystem modeling using the open source mass balance model Rpath". En. In: _Ecological Modelling_ 427, p. 109057. ISSN: 0304-3800. DOI: [10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109057](https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.ecolmodel.2020.109057). URL: [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380020301290](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380020301290) (visited on Apr. 16, 2021). <a name=bib-mazur_consequences_2023></a>[Mazur, M. D. et al.](#cite-mazur_consequences_2023) (2023). "Consequences of ignoring climate impacts on New England groundfish stock assessment and management". In: _Fisheries Research_ 262, p. 106652. ISSN: 0165-7836. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106652](https://doi.org/https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1016%2Fj.fishres.2023.106652). URL: [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623000450](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623000450). ] ## Additional Resources [EBFM pMSE June 2023 New England Council](https://www.nefmc.org/library/june-2023-ecosystem-based-fishery-management-ebfm-committee) * [Presentation](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/2_Draft-final-Prototype-Management-Evaluation-pMSE-simulation-results-and-output-2nd-mailing_2023-07-06-181333_tsor.pdf) * [Final Report](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/pMSE-Final-Report2.pdf) * [One Page Summaries](https://d23h0vhsm26o6d.cloudfront.net/4b_pMSE-one-page-sumamries_2023-07-06-181512_pgju.pdf) * ICES WKMSEDEV sharepoint: Background Documents .footnote[ Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov> ]