Multispecies Operating Models
ICES WKMSEDEV
28 September 2023
Sarah Gaichas, Presenter
Contributors: Andy Beet, Joe Caracappa, Gavin Fay (UMass Dartmouth), Sarah Gaichas, Robert Gamble,
Madeleine Guyant (UMass Dartmouth), Jerelle Jesse (GMRI/UMaine), Lisa Kerr (GMRI/UMaine),
Emily Liljestrand (UMass/NEFSC), Sean Lucey, Maria Cristina Perez (UMass Dartmouth)
Multispecies and Ecosystem Operating Models
Overview
Combining existing tools to evaluate EBFM procedures: Link multispecies model to MSE framework with built in single species assessment tools for New England prototype EBFM MSE (pMSE)
Fundamental objectives:
- Maintain or increase inflation adjusted total value for the fishery
- Preserve ecosystem function and structure
- Maintain stock complex biomass around levels that optimize fishing opportunities
- Prevent overfishing
- Response of regulations to stocks at low abundance, and recovery of depleted stocks
- Reduce regulatory complexity
Example explanatory materials, including Rshiny for exploring results
p.s. Food web model Rpath MSE capabilities
p.p.s. Atlantis potential
EBFM pMSE
Gavin Fay, Lisa Kerr, Madeleine Guyant, Jerelle Jesse, Emily Liljestrand
Hydra: multispecies operating model conditioned on Georges Bank data within MSE framework as prototype test of EBFM strategies.
Results: additional flexibility and increased yield possible with EBFM "ceilings and floors" without increased risk to single stocks.
Operating model building blocks
Multispecies catch at length Hydra (Gaichas et al., 2017)
Hydra-Associated GitHub repositories
- hydra-sim (Simulation Model Wiki): https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/hydra_sim/wiki
- hydra-sim (estimation fork): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydra_sim
- hydradata (estimation fork): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydradata
- hydra-diag (diagnostics): https://github.com/thefaylab/hydra_diag
Groundfish MSE framework (Mazur et al., 2023)
Groundfish MSE repository, branches, and tools
- main branch (including wiki): https://github.com/lkerr/groundfish-MSE
- pMSE branch: https://github.com/lkerr/groundfish-MSE/tree/JJ-EBFM
- includes ASAP model and Plan B smooth
- uses SAMtool state space surplus production assessment
Setup
Management Alternatives
- Single-species management, with stock-specific assessments and catch advice.
- Single-species management, with stock-specific assessments and catch advice and dynamic reference points.
- Stock complex management, with stock-complex level assessments and abundance index thresholds.
- Stock complex management, with stock-complex level assessments and abundance index thresholds, with gear-based stock complexes.
- Stock complex management, with stock-complex level assessments and dynamic reference points.
Operating Model Scenarios
- Base
- Fleet dynamics (Adjust q for economic value)
- Initial biomass (Below base)
- Predator pressure (Increase M1 <30cm)
- Prey change (Increase other food)
Single species management alternatives
Multispecies management alternatives
Example Results
Outreach materials
Summary pages
- pMSE Overview
- Management Objectives and Performance Metrics
- Management Alternatives
- Results Engagement
- Operating Models
- Assessment Models
More Potential Ecosystem Operating Models
Atlantis ↓ and Rpath →
Food web responses to management?
Rpath (Lucey et al., 2020) with MSE capability (Lucey et al., 2021)
Herring MSE food web model results: ecosystem tradeoffs
Tradeoffs between forage groups and mixed impacts to predators apparent when multiple species and full predator prey interaction feedbacks can be included
Rpath Ecosense functions evaluate parameter uncertainty within a scenario
Now we have MSE closed loop possibilities in Rpath (Lucey et al., 2021)
Can implement HCRs with predator prey interactions
Herring MSE food web model results: ecosystem uncertainty?
Compare 10% change (green, same as previous slide gray boxes) with more extreme "herring" biomass:
- 50% increase from base herring biomass (red)
- 50% decrease from base herring biomass (blue)
More system uncertainty with increased herring biomass?
Atlantis NEUSv2: major update
Joe Carracappa, Andy Beet, Robert Gamble
- Forcing with GLORYS12V1 and primary production in the newly calibrated model (Caracappa et al., 2022)
- Running in the cloud via NOAA HPC
In progress
- Sensitivity to fishing scenarios
- Testing ecosystem overfishing indicators for the Northeast US
- Integrating spatial fleets and ports of origin
- Climate projections using MOM-6 planned
References
Caracappa, J. C. et al. (2022). "A northeast United States Atlantis marine ecosystem model with ocean reanalysis and ocean color forcing". En. In: Ecological Modelling 471, p. 110038. ISSN: 0304-3800. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110038. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438002200148X (visited on Aug. 08, 2022).
Gaichas, S. K. et al. (2017). "Combining stock, multispecies, and ecosystem level fishery objectives within an operational management procedure: simulations to start the conversation". In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.2, pp. 552-565. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsw119. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/2/552/2669545/Combining-stock-multispecies-and-ecosystem-level (visited on Oct. 18, 2017).
Lucey, S. M. et al. (2021). "Evaluating fishery management strategies using an ecosystem model as an operating model". En. In: Fisheries Research 234, p. 105780. ISSN: 0165-7836. DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105780. URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783620302976 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).
Lucey, S. M. et al. (2020). "Conducting reproducible ecosystem modeling using the open source mass balance model Rpath". En. In: Ecological Modelling 427, p. 109057. ISSN: 0304-3800. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109057. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380020301290 (visited on Apr. 16, 2021).
Mazur, M. D. et al. (2023). "Consequences of ignoring climate impacts on New England groundfish stock assessment and management". In: Fisheries Research 262, p. 106652. ISSN: 0165-7836. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106652. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623000450.
Additional Resources
EBFM pMSE June 2023 New England Council
- Presentation
- Final Report
- One Page Summaries
- ICES WKMSEDEV sharepoint: Background Documents
Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
Contact: Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov