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Ecosystem modelling approaches: What questions can we address?

Ecosystem Modeling Approaches:

What Questions Can We Address?

Sarah Gaichas
Northeast Fisheries Science Center

With thanks to Gavin Fay (UMass), Sean Lucey (NOAA), and Sarah Weisberg (Stony Brook)

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What is an ecosystem model?

ecosystem model spectrum

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Ecosystem modelling approaches: What questions can we address?

Why build a model? Identify the problem

whybuild

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Why build a model? Identify the problem

whybuild

  1. Develop clearly specified questions and objectives

    • What does the model have to output/predict?
    • What does the user need to be able to change?

  2. Evaluate data availability (appropriate temporal/spatial scales)

  3. THEN build a model, or better, model(s)

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Today's objective

Primary: Think about your research question

  • What data do you have to address it?
  • Would a model be useful to address your research question?
  • If so, what would you want it to do?
  • Advanced: How might you build it?

Secondary: Understand what a food web model is

  • Know what questions to ask about how it was built
  • Know what it can and cannot do
  • Experiment: perturb the model in different ways
    • What do you observe?
    • Why might this be? (including model limitations)

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What is a food web model?

A system of linear equations

For each group, i, specify:

Biomass B [or Ecotrophic Efficiency EE ]
Population growth rate PB
Consumption rate QB
Diet composition DC
Fishery catch C
Biomass accumulation BA
Im/emigration IM and EM

Solving for EE [or B ] for each group:

toyfoodweb

Bi(PB)i∗EEi+IMi+BAi=∑j[Bj(QB)j∗DCij]+EMi+Ci

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Mathematically identical to an "input-output" model in economics

How do you build one?

Specify most parameters for each species; can solve for one

How? Observations from:

  1. Fishery independent surveys

    • Biomass estimates
    • Diet compositions
    • Growth and reproduction information

  2. Catch/landings/discard data from fishery managers

  3. Literature, historical information, general life history theory

  4. Other transparent, reproducible processes/sources

workinprogress

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What can you do with one? Lab overview

Anchovy Bay food web model

  1. Orientation using simple food web invented for illustration

  2. Tradeoffs between fishing fleets targeting different species

Gulf of Maine food web model

  1. More complex food web model based on a real system

  2. System reaction to different scenarios

    1. Changing fishing effort (combined fleet)
    2. Changing mortality for individual species
    3. Changing predator-prey dynamics
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The Northeast US shelf food web

GOM food web 2002

Link, J. 2002. Does food web theory work for marine ecosystems? Marine ecology progress series, 230: 1–9.
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The Gulf of Maine food web model

GOM food web

Link, J., Overholtz, W., O’Reilly, J., Green, J., Dow, D., Palka, D., Legault, C., et al. 2008. The Northeast U.S. continental shelf Energy Modeling and Analysis exercise (EMAX): Ecological network model development and basic ecosystem metrics. Journal of Marine Systems, 74: 453–474.

Link, J., Col, L., Guida, V., Dow, D., O’Reilly, J., Green, J., Overholtz, W., et al. 2009. Response of balanced network models to large-scale perturbation: Implications for evaluating the role of small pelagics in the Gulf of Maine. Ecological Modelling, 220: 351–369.

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New Gulf of Maine model (S. Weisberg, Stony Brook U), Atlantic herring highlighted

NEW GOM food web

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Possible exercises: work in teams

Anchovy Bay:

  1. Describe impacts of different fishing scenarios

  2. Describe potential catch and biomass objectives

  3. Can you engineer any scenarios to achieve them?

Gulf of Maine:

  1. Describe impacts of different fishing scenarios

  2. Describe impacts of individual species mortality scenarios

  3. Describe the impacts of "as prey" scenario

  4. Can you suggest mechanisms for any observed differences?

Both models

  1. Describe your Ecosystem Based management objective

    • Can you achieve it by changing sliders?
    • Are there any side effects (tradeoffs) of achieving your objective?
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https://sgaichas.shinyapps.io/rpath_GOMview/

The next level: uncertainty

How would you address this?

Biological parameters:

  1. Biomass

  2. Production rate

  3. Consumption rate

  4. Diet composition

  5. Predator-prey interactions

Management needs:

  1. Species/group resolution

  2. Fishing fleet resolution

  3. Spatial resolution

  4. Changing stakeholder questions

  5. Limited time

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Herring MSE food web model results: ecosystem tradeoffs

Tradeoffs between forage groups and mixed impacts to predators apparent when multiple species and full predator prey interaction feedbacks can be included

  • Rpath (Lucey, et al., 2020) Ecosense functions evaluate parameter uncertainty within a scenario

  • Now we have MSE closed loop possibilities in Rpath (Lucey, et al., 2021)

  • Can implement HCRs with predator prey interactions

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Herring MSE food web model results: ecosystem uncertainty?

Compare 10% change (green, same as previous slide gray boxes) with more extreme "herring" biomass:

  • 50% increase from base herring biomass (red)
  • 50% decrease from base herring biomass (blue)

More system uncertainty with increased herring biomass?

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Additional resources

References

Lucey, S. M. et al. (2021). "Evaluating fishery management strategies using an ecosystem model as an operating model". En. In: Fisheries Research 234, p. 105780. ISSN: 0165-7836. DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105780. URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783620302976 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

Lucey, S. M. et al. (2020). "Conducting reproducible ecosystem modeling using the open source mass balance model Rpath". En. In: Ecological Modelling 427, p. 109057. ISSN: 0304-3800. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109057. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380020301290 (visited on Apr. 16, 2021).

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Questions?

Thank you

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What is an ecosystem model?

ecosystem model spectrum

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Ecosystem modelling approaches: What questions can we address?

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