class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide .title[ # Mid-Atlantic Risk Assessment <br /> New information from the <br />State of the Ecosystem ] .subtitle[ ## MAFMC Ecosystem and Ocean Planning Committee and AP Meeting<br /> 27 April 2023 ] .author[ ### Sarah Gaichas and Geret DePiper, NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center <br /> Brandon Muffley, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council ] --- class: top, left <style> p.caption { font-size: 0.6em; } </style> <style> .reduced_opacity { opacity: 0.5; } </style> ## State of the Ecosystem information in support of new elements * Recreational fleet diversity -- fishery resilience or recreational opportunity risk? * Changes in fishing engagement -- fishery resilience risk? * Commercial and recreational community vulnerability: social, gentrification, environmental justice * Offshore wind specific elements -- risks to revenue by species and port? * Changes in the forage base * Habitat climate vulnerability --- # Potential Economic, Social, Food production elements ## Recreational opportunity risk .pull-left[ ### Recreational Fleet Diversity (2019-2023) Recreational diversity indices could be considered as additional risk element(s) to complement the existing Commercial fishery resilience (revenue diversity) element. While recreational value measured as angler trips has gone from high risk to low-moderate risk based on updated data, recreational fleet diversity (i.e., effort by shoreside, private boat, and for-hire anglers) has declined over the long term. ] .pull-right[ &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/rec-div-1.png" alt="Recreational fleet effort diversity in the Mid-Atlantic." width="504" /> <p class="caption">Recreational fleet effort diversity in the Mid-Atlantic.</p> </div> ] --- ## Social-Cultural Risk elements .pull-left[ ### Commerical Fishery Engagement Trends (2020) Commercial fishery engagement measures the [number of permits, dealers, and landings in a community](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/socioeconomics/social-indicator-definitions#fishing-engagement-and-reliance-indices). The trend in the number of Mid-Atlantic fishing communities that were highly engaged in commercial fishing has shown a decrease since 2004. Significant changes in engagement scores have also been observed in medium-highly engaged communities. The average engagement score has decreased since 2004. These changes may be driven by the decline in value landed by primary species such as sea scallops in this group of communities. ] .pull-right[ ### Social Vulnerability, Commercial and Recreational engagement and reliance by community (2021) Social vulnerability measures social factors that shape a community’s ability to adapt to change and does not consider gentrification pressure (see [detailed definitions](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/socioeconomics/social-indicator-definitions)). Communities that ranked medium-high or above for one or more of the following indicators: poverty, population composition, personal disruption, or labor force structure, were highlighted. ] --- ## Social-Cultural Risk elements: Environmental justice vulnerability (2022-2023) .pull-left[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/commercial-engagement-1.png" alt="Commercial engagement, reliance, and social vulnerability for the top commercial fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic." width="468" /> <p class="caption">Commercial engagement, reliance, and social vulnerability for the top commercial fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic.</p> </div> ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/recreational-engagement-1.png" alt="Recreational engagement, reliance, and social vulnerability for the top recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic." width="468" /> <p class="caption">Recreational engagement, reliance, and social vulnerability for the top recreational fishing communities in the Mid-Atlantic.</p> </div> ] These indicators highlighted in the 2022 Risk Assessment update showed signals of increased recreational fishing engagement and reliance in the Mid-Atlantic during 2020 (likely in response to COVID-19) as reported in the 2023 SOE. Combinations of these updated indicators can be used to update and expand on the **Social-Cultural** risk element. --- # Potential Management Risk Elements: Offshore wind .pull-left[ ## Fish habitat overlap with offshore wind lease areas (2020) Fish habitat modeling based on NEFSC bottom trawl surveys indicates that summer flounder, butterfish, longfin squid, and spiny dogfish are among fish species highly likely to occupy wind energy lease areas. Habitat conditions for many of these species have become more favorable over time within wind lease areas (increasing trend in probability of occupancy). The table lists the top 5 species in each season most likely to occupy the wind lease areas in the northern, central, and southern portions of the MAB, along with observed trends in probability of occupancy. ] .pull-right[ <table style='width:40%; font-size: 9px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; font-family: "Arial Narrow", "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;' class="table table-striped table-condensed lightable-classic"> <caption style="font-size: initial !important;">Species with highest probability of occupancy species each season and area, with observed trends</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="empty-cells: hide;border-bottom:hidden;" colspan="1"></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - North</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Proposed - North</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - Mid</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Proposed - Mid</div></th> <th style="border-bottom:hidden;padding-bottom:0; padding-left:3px;padding-right:3px;text-align: center; " colspan="2"><div style="border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom: 5px; ">Existing - South</div></th> </tr> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Season </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Trend </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Trend </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Trend </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Trend </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Trend </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic Herring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Clearnose Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spring </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Alewife </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Silver Hake </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spotted Hake </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fourspot Flounder </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin Squid </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Little Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Northern Searobin </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Longhorn Sculpin </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Clearnose Skate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter Flounder </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer Flounder </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Smooth Dogfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Sea Scallop </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\searrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Windowpane </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fourspot Flounder </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny Dogfish/Spotted Hake </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> `\(\nearrow\)` </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- .pull-left[ ## Offshore wind energy development timeline (2021-2023) As of January 2023, 24 offshore wind development projects are proposed for construction over the next decade in the Northeast (timelines and project data are based on Tables E-2, E-4, and E-4-2 of South Fork Wind Farm Final Environmental Impact Statement). Offshore wind areas are anticipated to cover more than 2.3 million acres by 2030 in the Greater Atlantic region. Beyond 2030 values include acreage for future areas in the Central Atlantic and Gulf of Maine Area planning area. <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wind-proposed-dev-1.png" alt="Proposed wind development on the northeast shelf." width="504" /> <p class="caption">Proposed wind development on the northeast shelf.</p> </div> ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wind-dev-cumul-1.png" alt="All Northeast Project areas by year construction ends (each project has 2 year construction period)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">All Northeast Project areas by year construction ends (each project has 2 year construction period).</p> </div> ] --- ## Offshore wind energy revenue by species in lease areas (2021-2023) .pull-left[ Based on federal vessel logbook data, commercial fishery revenue from trips in the current offshore wind lease areas and the draft Central Atlantic Bight Primary and Secondary Call Areas have varied annually from 2008-2021, with less than $\$$1 million in revenue overlapping with these areas for most fisheries. However, some fisheries see periodic spikes in revenue overlap with wind energy lease areas, including up to $\$$4.7 million affected in the surfclam fishery and nearly $\$$4.3 million affected in the longfin squid fishery in 2008 and 2016, respectively. ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wea-spp-rev-1.png" alt="Fishery revenue in wind energy lease areas in the Mid-Atlantic." width="504" /> <p class="caption">Fishery revenue in wind energy lease areas in the Mid-Atlantic.</p> </div> ] --- ## Port revenue from WEAs and environmental justice risks (2022-2023) .pull-left[ Equity and environmental justice (EJ) are priority concerns with offshore wind development and fisheries impacts in the Northeast. The presented indicator links historic port revenue (2008-2021) from within all wind lease areas as a proportion of the port’s total revenue based on vessel trip reports as described in the revenue and landings of species in the wind indicator above. The range (minimum and maximum) of total percent revenue from within wind energy areas is presented in the graph and ports are sorted from greatest to least revenue from within wind areas. ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: left"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/wea-port-rev-1.png" alt="Percent of Mid-Atlantic port revenue from Wind Energy Areas (WEA) in descending order from most to least port revenue from WEA. EJ = Environmental Justice." width="468" /> <p class="caption">Percent of Mid-Atlantic port revenue from Wind Energy Areas (WEA) in descending order from most to least port revenue from WEA. EJ = Environmental Justice.</p> </div> ] --- .pull-left[ ## WEAs and risks to protected species: Right whale habitat Planned development overlaps right whale mother and calf migration corridors and a significant foraging habitat that is used throughout the year. Turbine presence and extraction of energy from the system could alter local oceanography and may affect right whale prey availability. Proposed wind development areas also bring increased vessel strike risk from construction and operation vessels. In addition, there are a number of potential impacts to whales from pile driving and operational noise such as displacement, increased levels of communication masking, and elevated stress hormones. ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/whales-wind-1.png" alt="Northern Right Whale persistent hotspots and Wind Energy Areas." width="1322" /> <p class="caption">Northern Right Whale persistent hotspots and Wind Energy Areas.</p> </div> ] --- .pull-left[ ## WEAs and scientific survey mitigation (2022-2023) Increased scientific and management uncertainty if information from inaccessible survey areas cannot be collected. The total survey area overlap ranges from 1-14$\%$ across ecosystem, shellfish, fish, shark, and protected species surveys. For example, the sea scallop survey will have significant overlap (up to 96$\%$ of individual strata) while the bottom trawl survey will have up to 60$\%$ overlap. Additionally, up to 50$\%$ of the southern New England North Atlantic right whale survey’s area overlaps with proposed project areas. ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="https://github.com/NOAA-EDAB/presentations/raw/master/docs/EDAB_images/SurveyMap202128_withlines.png" alt="Interaction of Greater Atlantic Fisheries Scientific Surveys and Offshore Wind Development" /> <p class="caption">Interaction of Greater Atlantic Fisheries Scientific Surveys and Offshore Wind Development</p> </div> ] --- # Potential Ecosystem Risk Elements: forage, habitat .pull-left[ ## Forage base trends (2023) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/foragebio-1.png" alt="Forage fish index based on spring and fall survey predator diets." width="504" /> <p class="caption">Forage fish index based on spring and fall survey predator diets.</p> </div> ] .pull-right[ ## Forage base energy content (2021-2023) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html/energy-density-1.png" alt="Forage fish energy density mean and standard deviation by season and year, compared with 1980s (solid line; Steimle and Terranove 1985) and 1990s (dashed line; Lawson et al. 1998) values." width="540" /> <p class="caption">Forage fish energy density mean and standard deviation by season and year, compared with 1980s (solid line; Steimle and Terranove 1985) and 1990s (dashed line; Lawson et al. 1998) values.</p> </div> ] A forage fish index was introduced in the 2023 SOE to evaluate changes in the aggregate forage base available to predators. This index could be used in combination with new information on energy density of key forage species and current food web risk indicators to evaluate overall food web risks to MAFMC managed species and protected species (elements **FW1Pred**, **FW1Prey**, **FW2Prey**). --- ## Habitat vulnerability <div id="htmlwidget-493897c10fc43433539d" style="width:100%;height:226.8px;" class="widgetframe html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-493897c10fc43433539d">{"x":{"url":"20230427_SOEproposedElements_Gaichas_files/figure-html//widgets/widget_midHabTable.html","options":{"xdomain":"*","allowfullscreen":false,"lazyload":false}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script> --- ## Habitat vulnerability linked to species ([NRHA online tool](https://nrha.shinyapps.io/dataexplorer/#!/crosswalk)) .pull-left[ #### Black Sea Bass *Summary:* Black sea bass were determined to have, overall, a high vulnerability to climate change, due to very high climate exposure related to high surface and air temperature in both inshore and offshore waters, and moderate climate sensitivity of early life history stage requirements. ### Mid-Atlantic *Summary:* Shellfish reef habitats are highly important for both juveniles/young-of-the-year and adults. These life stages utilize both marine and estuarine shellfish reefs, in both intertidal and subtidal zones, which are very highly vulnerable and highly vulnerable, respectively. ] .pull-right[  ] --- ## State of the Ecosystem information in support of current or put aside elements .pull-left[ * Estuarine habitat indicators: quantify risks for estuarine dependent species? + Surface temperature + Salinity + Integrated water quality * Offshore habitat indicators: link to climate or distribution shift risks for all species? + Surface and bottom temperature + Extreme events + Cold pool temperature, duration, areal extent + Warm core rings + Ocean acidification ] .pull-right[ * ABC/ACL compared with catch: quantify management control? * Maintain other ocean uses but quantify with WEA revenue or other information presented? .center[ *Discuss additional indicators for current elements in upcoming meetings* ] ]