Recreational Fleet Diversity (2019-2023)

Recreational diversity indices could be considered as additional risk element(s) to complement the existing Commercial fishery resilience (revenue diversity) element. While recreational value measured as angler trips has gone from high risk to low-moderate risk based on updated data, recreational fleet diversity (i.e., effort by shoreside, private boat, and for-hire anglers) has declined over the long term.

Commerical Fishery Engagement Trends (2020)

Commercial fishery engagement measures the number of permits, dealers, and landings in a community. The trend in the number of Mid-Atlantic fishing communities that were highly engaged in commercial fishing has shown a decrease since 2004. Significant changes in engagement scores have also been observed in medium-highly engaged communities. The average engagement score has decreased since 2004. These changes may be driven by the decline in value landed by primary species such as sea scallops in this group of communities.

Fish habitat overlap with offshore wind lease areas (2020)

Fish habitat modeling based on NEFSC bottom trawl surveys indicates that summer flounder, butterfish, longfin squid, and spiny dogfish are among fish species highly likely to occupy wind energy lease areas. Habitat conditions for many of these species have become more favorable over time within wind lease areas (increasing trend in probability of occupancy). The table lists the top 5 species in each season most likely to occupy the wind lease areas in the northern, central, and southern portions of the MAB, along with observed trends in probability of occupancy.

Offshore wind energy development timeline (2021-2023)

As of January 2023, 24 offshore wind development projects are proposed for construction over the next decade in the Northeast (timelines and project data are based on Tables E-2, E-4, and E-4-2 of South Fork Wind Farm Final Environmental Impact Statement). Offshore wind areas are anticipated to cover more than 2.3 million acres by 2030 in the Greater Atlantic region. Beyond 2030 values include acreage for future areas in the Central Atlantic and Gulf of Maine Area planning area.

Proposed wind development on the northeast shelf.

Based on federal vessel logbook data, commercial fishery revenue from trips in the current offshore wind lease areas and the draft Central Atlantic Bight Primary and Secondary Call Areas have varied annually from 2008-2021, with less than $\$$1 million in revenue overlapping with these areas for most fisheries. However, some fisheries see periodic spikes in revenue overlap with wind energy lease areas, including up to $\$$4.7 million affected in the surfclam fishery and nearly $\$$4.3 million affected in the longfin squid fishery in 2008 and 2016, respectively.

Equity and environmental justice (EJ) are priority concerns with offshore wind development and fisheries impacts in the Northeast. The presented indicator links historic port revenue (2008-2021) from within all wind lease areas as a proportion of the port’s total revenue based on vessel trip reports as described in the revenue and landings of species in the wind indicator above. The range (minimum and maximum) of total percent revenue from within wind energy areas is presented in the graph and ports are sorted from greatest to least revenue from within wind areas.

WEAs and risks to protected species: Right whale habitat

Planned development overlaps right whale mother and calf migration corridors and a significant foraging habitat that is used throughout the year. Turbine presence and extraction of energy from the system could alter local oceanography and may affect right whale prey availability. Proposed wind development areas also bring increased vessel strike risk from construction and operation vessels. In addition, there are a number of potential impacts to whales from pile driving and operational noise such as displacement, increased levels of communication masking, and elevated stress hormones.

WEAs and scientific survey mitigation (2022-2023)

Increased scientific and management uncertainty if information from inaccessible survey areas cannot be collected. The total survey area overlap ranges from 1-14$\%$ across ecosystem, shellfish, fish, shark, and protected species surveys. For example, the sea scallop survey will have significant overlap (up to 96$\%$ of individual strata) while the bottom trawl survey will have up to 60$\%$ overlap. Additionally, up to 50$\%$ of the southern New England North Atlantic right whale survey’s area overlaps with proposed project areas.

Forage base trends (2023)

Forage fish index based on spring and fall survey predator diets.

Black Sea Bass

Summary: Black sea bass were determined to have, overall, a high vulnerability to climate change, due to very high climate exposure related to high surface and air temperature in both inshore and offshore waters, and moderate climate sensitivity of early life history stage requirements.

Mid-Atlantic

Summary: Shellfish reef habitats are highly important for both juveniles/young-of-the-year and adults. These life stages utilize both marine and estuarine shellfish reefs, in both intertidal and subtidal zones, which are very highly vulnerable and highly vulnerable, respectively.

• Estuarine habitat indicators: quantify risks for estuarine dependent species?

  • Surface temperature
  • Salinity
  • Integrated water quality

• Offshore habitat indicators: link to climate or distribution shift risks for all species?

  • Surface and bottom temperature
  • Extreme events
  • Cold pool temperature, duration, areal extent
  • Warm core rings
  • Ocean acidification