+ - 0:00:00
Notes for current slide
Notes for next slide

Mid-Atlantic Risk Assessment
Overview of EAFM Risk Elements
and Definitions

MAFMC Ecosystem and Ocean Planning Committee and AP Meeting
27 April 2023

Sarah Gaichas and Geret DePiper, NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center
Brandon Muffley, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council

1 / 10

What are Risk Elements, how are they determined, and potential considerations

Key Definitions

Risk Elements: what are we measuring?

Risk Definition: why are we measuring it?

Indicator: how are we measuring it?

Risk Ranking Criteria: what is the risk?

     

Assessment currently framed around risks to meeting Council management objectives:

Optimum yield (OY); supporting seafood production, recreational opportunities, and community and fishery resilience; minimizing bycatch and protected species interactions

2 / 10

Risk assessment use within EAFM: one approach shaping "what" and "why" considerations

IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework with full details in speaker notes

  • Direct link between ecosystem reporting and risk assessment
  • Conceptual model links across risk elements for fisheries, species
  • Management strategy evaluation includes key risks
3 / 10

The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

EAFM Risk Assessment: 2023 Update (all methods to be reveiwed/revised this year)

Species level risk elements

Species Assess Fstatus Bstatus FW1Pred FW1Prey FW2Prey Climate DistShift EstHabitat
Ocean Quahog lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest highest modhigh lowest
Surfclam lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh modhigh lowest
Summer flounder lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Scup lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Black sea bass lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh modhigh highest
Atl. mackerel lowest highest highest lowest lowest lowest lowmod modhigh lowest
Chub mackerel highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowest na na lowest
Butterfish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest highest lowest
Longfin squid lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Shortfin squid highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest highest lowest
Golden tilefish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish highest highest modhigh lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest
Bluefish lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh highest
Spiny dogfish lowest highest lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest highest lowest
Monkfish highest lowmod lowmod lowest lowest lowest lowest modhigh lowest
Unmanaged forage na na na lowest lowmod lowmod na na na
Deepsea corals na na na lowest lowest lowest na na na
  • RT assessment decreased Spiny dogfish Assess, risk to low and increased Fstatus risk to high
  • RT assessment decreased bluefish Bstatus risk from high to low-moderate
  • RT assessment increased Illex Assess risk from low-moderate to high

Ecosystem level risk elements

System EcoProd CommRev RecVal FishRes1 FishRes4 FleetDiv Social ComFood RecFood
Mid-Atlantic lowmod modhigh lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowmod highest modhigh
  • Recreational value risk decreased from low-moderate to low

Species and Sector level risk elements

Species MgtControl TecInteract OceanUse RegComplex Discards Allocation
Ocean Quahog-C lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Surfclam-C lowest lowest lowmod lowest modhigh lowest
Summer flounder-R modhigh lowest lowmod modhigh highest highest
Summer flounder-C lowmod modhigh lowmod modhigh modhigh lowest
Scup-R lowmod lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh highest
Scup-C lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh modhigh lowest
Black sea bass-R highest lowest modhigh modhigh highest highest
Black sea bass-C highest lowmod highest modhigh highest lowest
Atl. mackerel-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Atl. mackerel-C lowest lowmod modhigh highest lowmod highest
Butterfish-C lowest lowmod modhigh modhigh modhigh lowest
Longfin squid-C lowest modhigh highest modhigh highest lowest
Shortfin squid-C lowmod lowmod lowmod modhigh lowest highest
Golden tilefish-R na lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Golden tilefish-C lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Blueline tilefish-C lowmod lowest lowest lowmod lowest lowest
Bluefish-R lowmod lowest lowest lowmod modhigh highest
Bluefish-C lowest lowest lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest
Spiny dogfish-R lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest lowest
Spiny dogfish-C lowest modhigh modhigh modhigh lowmod lowest
Chub mackerel-C lowest lowmod lowmod lowmod lowest lowest
Unmanaged forage lowest lowest modhigh lowest lowest lowest
Deepsea corals na na modhigh na na na
  • Management section not updated--to be revised this year
4 / 10

Comments on overall risk assessment for EOP to consider?

Risk assessment → conceptual model                                  Conceptual model → MSE

Summer flounder MSE results by OM Summer flounder MSE results by OM

5 / 10

Why Ecosystem level risk elements?

Example risk assessment table with species in rows and risk elements in columns with green cells indicating low risks, yellow and orange cells indicating moderate risks, and red cells indicatig high risk

  • Council staff and scientists create examples based on Council input

    ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ...

  • Council discusses, clarifies, revises with public input

6 / 10

Why Ecosystem level risk elements?

Example risk assessment table with species in rows and risk elements in columns with green cells indicating low risks, yellow and orange cells indicating moderate risks, and red cells indicatig high risk

  • Council staff and scientists create examples based on Council input

    ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↓ ...

  • Council discusses, clarifies, revises with public input

Element Definition Indicators
Ecosystem
Ecosystem productivity Risk of not achieving OY due to changing system productivity Four indicators, see text
Economic
Commercial Revenue Risk of not maximizing fishery value Revenue in aggregate
Recreational Angler Days/Trips Risk of not maximizing fishery value Numbers of anglers and trips in aggregate
Commercial Fishery Resilience (Revenue Diversity) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience Species diversity of revenue
Commercial Fishery Resilience (Shoreside Support) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to shoreside support infrastructure Number of shoreside support businesses
Social
Fleet Resilience Risk of reduced fishery resilience Number of fleets, fleet diversity
Social-Cultural Risk of reduced community resilience Community vulnerability, fishery engagement and reliance
Food Production
Commercial Risk of not optimizing seafood production Seafood landings in aggregate
Recreational Risk of not maintaining personal food production Recreational landings in aggregate
6 / 10

Why Species level risk elements?

Element Definition Indicators
Ecological
Assessment performance Risk of not achieving OY due to analytical limitations Current assessment method/data quality
F status Risk of not achieving OY due to overfishing Current F relative to reference F from assessment
B status Risk of not achieving OY due to depleted stock Current B relative to reference B from assessment
Food web (MAFMC Predator) Risk of not achieving OY due to MAFMC managed species interactions Diet composition, management measures
Food web (MAFMC Prey) Risk of not achieving OY due to MAFMC managed species interactions Diet composition, management measures
Food web (Protected Species Prey) Risk of not achieving protected species objectives due to species interactions Diet composition, management measures
Climate Risk of not achieving OY due to climate vulnerability Northeast Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Distribution shifts Risk of not achieving OY due to climate-driven distribution shifts Northeast Climate Vulnerability Assessment + 2 indicators
Estuarine habitat Risk of not achieving OY due to threats to estuarine/nursery habitat Enumerated threats + estuarine dependence
7 / 10

Why Council-evaluated risk elements: Management?

Element Definition Indicators
Management
Control Risk of not achieving OY due to inadequate control Catch compared to allocation
Interactions Risk of not achieving OY due to interactions with species managed by other entities Number and type of interactions with protected or non-MAFMC managed species, co-management
Other ocean uses Risk of not achieving OY due to other human uses Fishery overlap with energy/mining areas
Regulatory complexity Risk of not achieving compliance due to complexity Number of regulations by species
Discards Risk of not minimizing bycatch to extent practicable Standardized Bycatch Reporting
Allocation Risk of not achieving OY due to spatial mismatch of stocks and management Distribution shifts + number of interests
8 / 10

Reconsider risk elements put aside in 2017?

Element Definition Indicators
Put Aside
Offshore habitat Risk of not achieving OY due to changing offshore habitat Integrated habitat model index
Population diversity Risk of not achieving OY due to reduced diversity Size composition, sex ratio, genetic diversity
Ecological diversity Risk of not achieving OY due to reduced diversity Fishery independent species diversity
Fishery Resilience (2) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to access to capital No current indicator available
Fishery Resilience (3) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to insurance availabilty No current indicator available
Fishery Resilience (5) Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to access to emerging markets/opportunities Needs clarification
Commercial Employment Risk of not optimizing employment opportunities EOP Committee unconfident in Fisheries of US employment inicator
Recreational Employment Risk of not optimizing employment opportunities EOP Committee unconfident in Fisheries of US employment indicator
Seafood safety Risk of not maintaining market access, human health Number of public advisories by species
9 / 10

Today

Update or add risk elements? (columns)

Update or refine risk definitions? (columns)

Update or add resources or fisheries? (rows)

Can we revise the risk assessment to work better within the Council's EAFM approach?

Can we revise the risk assessment to work better for other Council decisions?

Next meeting (not constraining today)

Update or refine risk indicators?

Update or refine risk criteria?

10 / 10

Today

Update or add risk elements? (columns)

Update or refine risk definitions? (columns)

Update or add resources or fisheries? (rows)

Can we revise the risk assessment to work better within the Council's EAFM approach?

Can we revise the risk assessment to work better for other Council decisions?

Next meeting (not constraining today)

Update or refine risk indicators?

Update or refine risk criteria?

10 / 10

What are Risk Elements, how are they determined, and potential considerations

Key Definitions

Risk Elements: what are we measuring?

Risk Definition: why are we measuring it?

Indicator: how are we measuring it?

Risk Ranking Criteria: what is the risk?

     

Assessment currently framed around risks to meeting Council management objectives:

Optimum yield (OY); supporting seafood production, recreational opportunities, and community and fishery resilience; minimizing bycatch and protected species interactions

2 / 10
Paused

Help

Keyboard shortcuts

↑, ←, Pg Up, k Go to previous slide
↓, →, Pg Dn, Space, j Go to next slide
Home Go to first slide
End Go to last slide
Number + Return Go to specific slide
b / m / f Toggle blackout / mirrored / fullscreen mode
c Clone slideshow
p Toggle presenter mode
t Restart the presentation timer
?, h Toggle this help
Esc Back to slideshow