+ - 0:00:00
Notes for current slide
Notes for next slide

K Holsman: Hoping to deploy that model for the Bering operationally now that its published (and phase out ADMB version we've used operationally since 2016 as the an appendix to the pollock assessment).

Multispecies models: US update

WGSAM ToR a, 10 October 2022

Sarah Gaichas, Grant Adams, Kerim Aydin, Brandon Beltz, Kirstin Holsman,
Isaac Kaplan, Sean Lucey, Janet Nye, Jameal Samhouri, Andy Whitehouse, Sarah Weisberg

1 / 12

Gulf of Alaska predation mortality--ensemble approach (Adams, et al., 2022) in Rceattle

GOA consumption estimates

2 / 12

K Holsman: Hoping to deploy that model for the Bering operationally now that its published (and phase out ADMB version we've used operationally since 2016 as the an appendix to the pollock assessment).

3 / 12

Climate projected Bering Sea food web impacts (Whitehouse, et al., 2021) in Rpath

Bering Sea ACLIM climate simulations, including multispecies reference points, harvest control rules, and tradeoffs against the global OY cap

4 / 12

Andy's paper of Bering ACLIM climate simulations, that includes multispecies reference points, harvest control rules, and tradeoffs against the global OY cap: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301/full. Maybe just a bullet to say that we're using models with those features works? Stops short of a full MSE (according to Andre) because we didn't include adaptive assessment/observation error.

Jon Reum has been developing a protocol for multimodal ensemble projections that include Ceattle, Rpath, and Mizer (recent workshop work, no figures/results yet).

Lake Ontario MSCAA linking prey biomass to predator growth (Fitzpatrick, et al., 2022)

Fitzpatrick et al 2022 Fig 1

Fitzpatrick et al 2022 Fig 4

5 / 12

(to my knowledge) is the first to link prey abundance to growth of predators in one of these models since Gislason 1999

6 / 12
7 / 12
8 / 12

Ongoing EBFM modeling for New England

Georges Bank multispecies modelling

ToR b keyrun/constructed model review for 3 models (afternoons, Monday-Thursday)

ToR c skill assessment in progress for 2 models (Tuesday morning, afternoons M-W)

ToR d set up for multimodel advice from the above (Friday)

9 / 12

Rpath for the Mid-Atlantic: Climate driven predator migration shifts

Brandon Beltz MS thesis

  • Built Mid Atlantic Rpath
  • Forced migration of spiny dogfish and other sharks
  • Changed amount leaving the system (Range shift)
  • Changed timing of migration (Phenological shift)
  • Simulated individually, and combined Range and Phenological shift
  • Evaluated food web impacts

spiny dogfish scenarios

10 / 12

Rpath for the Gulf of Maine: Resilience in trophic networks

Sarah Weisberg PhD thesis (presented at ICES WGCOMEDA last week)

  • Built Gulf of Maine Rpath
  • Evaluating network indices related to resilience
    • System Omnivory
    • Finn's Cycling
    • Relative Efficiency and Redundancy
  • Using Ecosense to generate distributions of systems
    • Classify systems into low and high efficiency
    • Evaluate biomass distributions in each
    • Evaluate states over time

Relative efficiency Biomass by rel efficiency

11 / 12

References

Adams, G. D. et al. (2022). "An ensemble approach to understand predation mortality for groundfish in the Gulf of Alaska". En. In: Fisheries Research 251, p. 106303. ISSN: 0165-7836. DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2022.106303. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783622000807 (visited on Oct. 07, 2022).

Fitzpatrick, K. B. et al. (2022). "Balancing prey availability and predator consumption: a multispecies stock assessment for Lake Ontario". In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 79.9. Publisher: NRC Research Press, pp. 1529-1545. ISSN: 0706-652X. DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2021-0126. URL: https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2021-0126 (visited on Oct. 07, 2022).

Whitehouse, G. A. et al. (2021). "Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web". In: Frontiers in Marine Science 8. ISSN: 2296-7745. URL: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 (visited on Oct. 07, 2022).

Additional resources

Alaska multispecies and ecosystem models

California Current Future Seas MSEs

Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations
Contact: Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov

12 / 12

Gulf of Alaska predation mortality--ensemble approach (Adams, et al., 2022) in Rceattle

GOA consumption estimates

2 / 12

K Holsman: Hoping to deploy that model for the Bering operationally now that its published (and phase out ADMB version we've used operationally since 2016 as the an appendix to the pollock assessment).

Paused

Help

Keyboard shortcuts

↑, ←, Pg Up, k Go to previous slide
↓, →, Pg Dn, Space, j Go to next slide
Home Go to first slide
End Go to last slide
Number + Return Go to specific slide
b / m / f Toggle blackout / mirrored / fullscreen mode
c Clone slideshow
p Toggle presenter mode
t Restart the presentation timer
?, h Toggle this help
Esc Back to slideshow