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State of the Ecosystem Structure
Proposed 2021

SOE January Synthesis Meeting
19 January 2021

Sarah Gaichas and Sean Lucey
Northeast Fisheries Science Center

Many thanks to:
Kimberly Bastille, Geret DePiper, Kimberly Hyde, Scott Large,
and all SOE contributors

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reprorts
  • Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley, et al., 2020)

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State of the Ecosystem: Structure

2020 Report

  1. Summary 2 pager
  2. Human dimensions
  3. Protected species
  4. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)
  5. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity

2021 Proposed

  1. Summary 2 pager
    • Page 1 summary bullets
    • Page 2 synthesis themes
  2. Performance against management objectives
  3. Risks

Established ecosystem-scale objectives

Objective Categories Indicators reported here
Provisioning/Cultural
Seafood Production Landings by feeding guild
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Days fished; recreational catch
Social & Cultural Commercial engagement trends
Supporting/Regulating
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and species)
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, Zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
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2020 Report: Summary 2 pager with visualizations, 28 pages of narrative/plots, 1 page orientation

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets

State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic

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2020 Request tracking memo

Request Year Source Progress Memo Section
Ecosystem Overfishing indicators (Link and Watson, 2019) 2020 Both Councils SOE total catch/area, total catch/PP, and total catch/Chl -- challenge is for total catch 1
Primary production required, interpretation of decline? 2020 Both Councils SOE indicator reworked to include some Link and Watson metrics 2
Climate Change context 2020 NEFMC SOE reorganized; Risks section added emphasizing climate change 3
Clarify language (e.g., primary production required) 2020 Both Councils RCB help requested 4
Copy Editing 2020 Both Councils RCB help requested 5
Ocean Acidification 2020 NEFMC SOE indicator added with in-situ data linked to preliminary lab work on thresholds 6
Include examples of High/Low engaged ports 2020 NEFMC SOE indicator reworked to show ports 7
Expand wind lease area and habitat overlap 2020 MAFMC SOE indicator expanded to rank species with habitat in wind lease areas by landings in wind lease areas 8
Expand cold pool index 2020 MAFMC SOE indicator expanded with modeled data to include area and other attributes 9
Shark diversity indicator 2020 MAFMC SOE multiple shark indicators added 10
Uncertainty estimates 2020 MAFMC SOE included for subset of indicators 11
Bycatch index 2020 NEFMC SOE added seal bycatch indicator, retained harbor porpoise indicator 12
Marine Mammal consumption 2019 MAFMC SOE added discussion of seal diets, memo no new consumption ests since Smith et al but could be in the future once work is complete 13
Estuarine Water Quality 2020 NEFMC SOE Chesapeake indicators updated and expanded 14
Linking Condition 2020 MAFMC in progress not ready for 2021 15
Avg weight of diet components by feeding group 2019 Internal in progress part of fish condition ? stomach fullness analysis started--species level 16
Mean stomach weight across feeding guilds 2019 MAFMC in progress stomach fullness analysis started--species level 17
Shellfish growth/distribution linked to climate (system productivity) 2019 MAFMC in progress project with R Mann student to start 2021? 18
Cumulative weather index 2020 MAFMC in progress data gathered for prototype 19
Management complexity 2019 MAFMC in progress by summer student, needs further analysis, no further work in 2020 20
VAST and uncertainty 2020 Both Councils ??? in progress not ready for 2021 21
Seal index 2020 MAFMC ??? in progress not ready for 2021 22
Seperate Bigelow/Albatross catch diversity metric 2020 MAFMC ??? not done 23
Incorporate social sciences survey from council 2020 NEFMC ??? check ??? not started 24
Young of Year index from multiple surveys 2019 MAFMC not started 25
Biomass of spp not included in BTS 2020 MAFMC not started 26
Estuarine condition relative to power plants and temp 2019 MAFMC not started 27
Inflection points for indicators 2019 Both Councils not started 28
Reduce indicator dimensionality with multivariate statistics 2020 NEFMC not started 29
Breakpoints 2020 NEFMC not started 30
Re-evaluate EPUs 2020 NEFMC not started 31
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Proposed ecosystem synthesis themes for 2021

Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management: plain language summary for 2 pager

  • Multiple drivers of abundance, defined by the competing factors that influence the amount of fish in the ocean;
  • Regime shifts, or ecosystem change can happen rapidly as multiple drivers change; and,
  • Reorganization of the ecosystem, multiple factors that interact that change the structure and organization of the ecosystem, e.g. Tropicalization

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Proposed outline: two sections, each with "what" and "why"

  • Performance against management objectives
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why do we think it is changing: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Objectives
    • Seafood production
    • Profits
    • Recreational opportunities
    • Stability
    • Social and cultural
    • Protected species
  • Risks
    • What does the indicator say--up, down, stable?
    • Why this is important to managers: integrates synthesis themes
      • Multiple drivers
      • Regime shifts
      • Ecosystem reorganization
  • Risk categories
    • Climate: warming, ocean currents, acidification
      • Habitat changes (incl. vulnerability analysis)
      • Productivity changes (system and fish)
      • Species interaction changes
      • Community structure changes
    • Other ocean uses
      • Wind
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Example: Seafood production objective

Indicator: Total landings Trend: Decreasing
Mid-Atlantic
New England

Why: multiple drivers: stock status/management, engagement, markets, fish population drivers

Condition conceptual model

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Multiple drivers of fish production analysis in progress: environment - fish condition - market price linkages

Bottom water temperature anomaly MAB Zooplankton community and primary production anomaly Relative condition factor 1992-2019 for fish species in the MAB. MAB data are missing for 2017 due to survey delays Price for king silver hake 1994-2019

  • Identify multiple and changing drivers of condition and market prices over time
  • Recognize regime shifts and potential system reorganization

  • Work in progress has identified the following potential drivers

    • Temperature?
    • Zooplankton...? Laurel and team to specify
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Example: Profits objective

Indicator: Total Revenue
Mid-Atlantic
New England

Why: multiple drivers: price and volume
Mid-Atlantic

New England

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Example: Recreational opportunities objective

Indicator: Recreational Landings
Mid-Atlantic

New England

Why: multiple drivers: Diversity Mid-Atlantic

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Example: Stability objective

Indicator: Diversity in fishery/species
Fishery (Mid-Atlantic)

Indicator: Zooplankton/Ichthyoplankton diversities

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Example: Stability objective

Why? Multiple drivers

  • Consolidation of fleets?
  • Changing species interactions?
  • Links to risk section
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Example: Social and cultural objectives

Indicator: Recreational Vulnerability

Mid-Atlantic communities

Indicator: Commercial Vulnerability

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Example: Social and cultural objectives

Why? ...

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Example: Protected species objectives--add the "Why" linking to other SOE indicators

Indicators: Species By-catch

Indicators: Endangered Species Populations

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Example: Climate risks: multiple potential impacts on management

Indicators: Gulf Stream index, bottom and surface temperature, heat waves
Trends:

Why this matters: Habitat change from multiple drivers alters:

  • species distributions--allocation
  • system productivity--fishery resource productivity
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Example: Climate risks to species distribution--allocation issues

  • Changing species distributions
  • Habitat conditions, habitat vulnerability
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Example: Climate risks to species production--fishery yields

  • OA impact on shellfish growth
    • Areas of low pH identified in surfclam and scallop habitat
    • Lab work in progress identified pH thresholds for surfclam growth: approaching threshold
  • Ecosystem productivity link to fishery productivity

  • Diversity changes (tropicalizaton? affects species available for fishing, FMPs)

    • Recreational catch diversity in Mid supported by "southern" species
  • Predation increasing? sharks, seals

Seasonal pH

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Example: Other ocean uses (Wind): area covered, fisheries impacted

Survey wind area

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Future: Better integration of habitats with managed species for managers

  • Mid-Atlantic Council very interested in estuarine conditions and habitat supporting managed stocks
  • Chesapeake Bay has excellent indicators and synthesis
  • Prioritize next steps for identifying high risk combinations: Key species, habitats, and drivers
  • 2021 SOE introduces Habitat Climate Vulerability Assessment results linked to species
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Our charge this week

  1. Finalize structure and outline
  2. Are current examples correct?
  3. Fill in the "why" emphasizing synthesis themes: multiple drivers, regime shifts, system reorganization
    • In each topical break out meeting
    • Together at the synthesis break out Thursday
    • Where does your indicator fit in? Multiple places
  4. Develop main messages for front page
  5. Finalize main messages Friday plenary

Thank you!

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References

Bastille, K. et al. (2020). "Improving the IEA Approach Using Principles of Open Data Science". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155, pp. 1-18. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846155 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

DePiper, G. S. et al. (2017). "Operationalizing integrated ecosystem assessments within a multidisciplinary team: lessons learned from a worked example". En. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.8, pp. 2076-2086. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsx038. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/74/8/2076/3094701 (visited on Mar. 09, 2018).

Muffley, B. et al. (2020). "There Is no I in EAFM Adapting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management". In: Coastal Management 0.0. Publisher: Taylor & Francis _ eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156, pp. 1-17. ISSN: 0892-0753. DOI: 10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2021.1846156 (visited on Dec. 09, 2020).

Additional resources

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting

Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers

  • Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)

    • Contextual information
    • Report evolving since 2016
    • Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reprorts
  • Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)

  • Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley, et al., 2020)

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