State of the Ecosystem (SOE) reporting
Improving ecosystem information and synthesis for fishery managers
Ecosystem indicators linked to management objectives (DePiper, et al., 2017)
- Contextual information
- Report evolving since 2016
- Fishery-relevant subset of full Ecosystem Status Reprorts
Open science emphasis (Bastille, et al., 2020)
Used within Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's Ecosystem Process (Muffley, et al., 2020)
The IEA Loop1
2020 Mid-Atlantic SOE Take Home Messages
The fraction of ecosystem energy removed by fisheries is declining (commercial landings declined while primary production remained steady)
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities, possibly linked to continued declines in revenue
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species
2020 Mid-Atlantic SOE Take Home Messages
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species
While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
2020 Mid-Atlantic SOE Take Home Messages
Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019, increasing oyster mortality and spreading invasive catfish
Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and the cold pool are warming
Warmer waters increase nutrient recycling and summer primary production
Proposed ecosystem synthesis themes for 2021
Characterizing ecosystem change for fishery management: plain language summary for 2 pager
- Multiple drivers of abundance, defined by the competing factors that influence the amount of fish in the ocean;
- Regime shifts, or ecosystem change can happen rapidly as multiple drivers change; and,
- Reorganization of the ecosystem, multiple factors that interact that change the structure and organization of the ecosystem, e.g. Tropicalization
Synthetic analysis in progress: environment - fish condition - market price linkages
- Identify multiple and changing drivers of condition and market prices over time
- Recognize regime shifts and potential system reorganization
Sustained Interest in Estuarine Water Quality and Resource Impacts
Chesapeake Bay water quality update--2020 report
Salinity in Chesapeake Bay throughout 2018 (blue) and 2019 (red) as well as the daily average 2008-2019 (black) and the full observed range 2008-2019 (gray shading).
High precipitation led to extreme low salinity event in spring 2019
Linking to living resources: Indicator catalogue
- Low dissolved oxygen
Low spat set and high oyster mortality in upper Bay and Potomac
Invasive freshwater species (blue catfish) spread
Methods: Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria, Commercial revenue example
This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.
| Risk Level | Definition |
|---|---|
| Low | No trend and low variability in revenue |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in revenue |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term revenue decrease |
| High | Significant recent decrease in revenue |
Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species (red points in top plot)
Total revenue for the region (black) and revenue from MAFMC managed species (red).
Revenue change from the 2015 base year in 2015 dollars (black), Price (PI), and Volume Indicators (VI) for commercial landings in the Mid-Atlantic.
Methods: Synthesis analysis refinements for SSC and Council decisions? Example
Conceptual model links indicators in the report with management objectives.
A subset of objectives are currently under investigation using GAMs and hedonic price functions. We plan to extend this work with structural equation modeling and or other methods in 2020.