The MSE process

Operating models and uncertainties

Implementation error was included as year-specific lognormal random deviations: $F_{a,y}=\bar{F}_yS_ae^{\varepsilon_{\theta,y}-\frac{\sigma_\theta^2}{2}} \;\;\; \varepsilon_{\theta} \sim N(0,\sigma_\theta^2)$

Assessment error was modeled similarly, with first-order autocorrelation and an optional bias term $\rho$: $\widehat{N}_{a,y}=[N_{a,y}(\rho+1)]e^{\varepsilon_{\phi,y}-\frac{\sigma_\phi^2}{2}}\;\;\;\; \varepsilon_{\phi,y}=\vartheta\varepsilon_{\phi,y-1}+\sqrt{1-\vartheta^2}\tau_y \;\;\;\; \tau \sim N(0,\sigma_\phi^2)$

Linked models matching stakeholder-identified objectives

Predators: deterministic population models and herring-predator links

Results summary

Three HCR types were rejected at the second stakeholder meeting for poor fishery and predator performance.

Managing tradeoffs under uncertainty: What control rules give us 90% of everything we want?

• Tern productivity at 1.0 or above more than 90% of the time
• Herring biomass more than 90% of SSBmsy
• Fishery yield more than 90% of MSY  
• AND fishery closures (F=0) less than 1% of the time (plot on right).

Lessons:

Conclusions: robust harvest control rules in a changing environment

• Herring MSE peer review said next time:

  • Consider non-stationarity in herring parameters
  • Mis-specify reference points
  • Consider climate change
  • Include assessment model
  • Include full food web, lots more economic info

• NOAA Fisheries MSE support

  • Dedicated analyst in each region
  • Climate related MSEs
    • California coastal pelagics
    • Pacific hake
    • Pacific sablefish
    • New England groundfish

• NOAA Climate and EBFM Roadmaps

  • Scenario planning
  • MSE

References

Deroba, J. J, S. K. Gaichas, M. Lee, et al. (2018). "The dream and the reality: meeting decision-making time frames while incorporating ecosystem and economic models into management strategy evaluation". In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. ISSN: 0706-652X. DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128. URL: http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128 (visited on Jul. 20, 2018).

Feeney, R. G, D. V. Boelke, J. J. Deroba, et al. (2018). "Integrating Management Strategy Evaluation into fisheries management: advancing best practices for stakeholder inclusion based on an MSE for Northeast U.S. Atlantic herring". In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. ISSN: 0706-652X. DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125. URL: http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125 (visited on Nov. 09, 2018).

Additional resources

• New England Atlantic herring management

• New England herring FMP Amendment 8

• New England herring MSE peer review

• New England herring MSE debrief