class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide # Herring HCR accounting for its role as forage ## US New England Fishery Management Council Herring MSE ### Sarah Gaichas <br /> Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment <br /> Northeast Fisheries Science Center --- class: top, left background-image: url("EDAB_images/allcomponents.png") background-size: 800px background-position: right bottom ## Are any Atlantic herring harvest control rules good for both fisheries and predators? .pull-left-30[ **Harvest control rules** are: - plans for changing fishing based on stock status - pre-determined *"Which harvest control rules best consider herring's role as forage?"* - DESIGN a harvest control rule (HCR): - balancing fishing benefits and ecological services - addressing diverse stakeholder interests - TRANSPARENTLY within management time frame! ] --- background-image: url("EDAB_images/MgtProcess.png") background-size: 800px background-position: right ## The MSE process .pull-left-30[ *First MSE within US Council* <a name=cite-feeney_integrating_2018></a>([Feeney, Boelke, Deroba, Gaichas, Irwin, and Lee, 2018](http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125)) Scope: annual stockwide HCR Open stakeholder meetings (2) - ID objectives, uncertainties - ID acceptable performance - more diverse, interactive than "normal" process Uncertainties identified - herring mortality (M) - environmental effects on herring - predator response to herring abundance - assessment uncertainty ] --- ## Operating models and uncertainties .pull-left-70[ .table[ |Operating Model Name|Herring Productivity|Herring Growth|Assessment Bias| |:---------------------|:---------------------|:-----------------|:-----------------| | LowFastBiased | Low: high M, low h (0.44) | 1976-1985: fast | 60% overestimate | | LowSlowBiased | Low: high M, low h (0.44) | 2005-2014: slow | 60% overestimate | | LowFastCorrect | Low: high M, low h (0.44) | 1976-1985: fast | None | | LowSlowCorrect | Low: high M, low h (0.44) | 2005-2014: slow | None | | HighFastBiased | High: low M, high h (0.79) | 1976-1985: fast | 60% overestimate | | HighSlowBiased | High: low M, high h (0.79) | 2005-2014: slow | 60% overestimate | | HighFastCorrect | High: low M, high h (0.79) | 1976-1985: fast | None | | HighSlowCorrect | High: low M, high h (0.79) | 2005-2014: slow | None | ] &nbsp; &nbsp; ] .pull-right-30[ <a name=cite-deroba_dream_2018></a>([Deroba, Gaichas, Lee, Feeney, Boelke, and Irwin, 2018](http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128)) ] Implementation error was included as year-specific lognormal random deviations: `\(F_{a,y}=\bar{F}_yS_ae^{\varepsilon_{\theta,y}-\frac{\sigma_\theta^2}{2}} \;\;\; \varepsilon_{\theta} \sim N(0,\sigma_\theta^2)\)` Assessment error was modeled similarly, with first-order autocorrelation and an optional bias term `\(\rho\)`: `\(\widehat{N}_{a,y}=[N_{a,y}(\rho+1)]e^{\varepsilon_{\phi,y}-\frac{\sigma_\phi^2}{2}}\;\;\;\; \varepsilon_{\phi,y}=\vartheta\varepsilon_{\phi,y-1}+\sqrt{1-\vartheta^2}\tau_y \;\;\;\; \tau \sim N(0,\sigma_\phi^2)\)` --- background-image: url("EDAB_images/OMdesign.png") background-size: 750px background-position: right ## Linked models matching stakeholder-identified objectives .pull-left-30[ The Dream:¹ Convert the effects of control rules on 4 user groups to dollars: .contrib[ 1. Users of landed herring (Demand) - Lobster industry, aquariums 1. Herring harvesters (Supply) 1. Direct users of herring in the ocean (not people) - Terns and Whales - Striped Bass, Dogfish 1. Indirect users of herring in the ocean (people, Derived Demand) - Bird- and whale-watchers - Recreational and Commercial Fishing ] The Reality .contrib[ - 8 herring operating models linked to simple predator and economic models, developed in parallel - limited range of predator response - limited economic effects, directed fishery only ] ([Deroba, Gaichas, Lee, et al., 2018](http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128)) ] .footnote[ ¹ Credit: [Min-Yang Lee](https://s3.amazonaws.com/nefmc.org/13.Economic-Models_Lee.pdf) ] --- background-image: url("EDAB_images/herrtopreds.png") background-size: 640px background-position: left ## Predators: deterministic population models and herring-predator links .pull-left[] .pull-right[.right[  ] .table[ Time constraints forced: - selection of predators with previous modeling and readily available data - selection of single strongest herring-predator relationship - models ignoring high variance in prey-predator relationships ] ] --- background-image: url("EDAB_images/herrtopreds_results.png") background-size: 650px background-position: left center ## Results summary Three HCR types were rejected at the second stakeholder meeting for poor fishery and predator performance. .pull-left[] .pull-right[.right[ <img src="20200923_herringWKRPchange_Gaichas_files/figure-html/ZZZ-1.png" width="80%" /> ]] --- ## Managing tradeoffs under uncertainty: What control rules give us 90% of everything we want? - Tern productivity at 1.0 or above more than 90% of the time - Herring biomass more than 90% of SSBmsy - Fishery yield more than 90% of MSY &nbsp; - AND fishery closures (F=0) less than 1% of the time (plot on right). .pull-left[ <img src="20200923_herringWKRPchange_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="504" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="20200923_herringWKRPchange_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="504" /> ] --- ## Lessons: .pull-left-30[ Complex food web, generalist predators - Herring is one of several important prey - Assess multiple prey together for stronger effects on predator productivity - Tern/Tuna/Groundfish/Mammal productivity also affected by predators, weather, and other uncertain factors - Still showed which herring control rules were poor - Managers selected a harvest control rule considering a wide range of factors! ] .pull-right-70[  ] --- background-image: url("EDAB_images/climatescenarioarrow.png") background-size: 700px background-position: right ## Conclusions: robust harvest control rules in a changing environment - Herring MSE peer review said next time: - Consider non-stationarity in herring parameters - Mis-specify reference points - Consider climate change - Include assessment model - Include full food web, lots more economic info - NOAA Fisheries MSE support - Dedicated analyst in each region - Climate related MSEs - California coastal pelagics - Pacific hake - Pacific sablefish - New England groundfish - NOAA Climate and EBFM Roadmaps - Scenario planning - MSE .footnote[ Source: [Salmon Climate Scenario Planning Pilot Report](https://www.greateratlantic.fisheries.noaa.gov/policyseries/index.php/GARPS/article/view/15/14) ] --- ## References <a name=bib-deroba_dream_2018></a>[Deroba, J. J, S. K. Gaichas, M. Lee, et al.](#cite-deroba_dream_2018) (2018). "The dream and the reality: meeting decision-making time frames while incorporating ecosystem and economic models into management strategy evaluation". In: _Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences_. ISSN: 0706-652X. DOI: [10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128](https://doi.org/10.1139%2Fcjfas-2018-0128). URL: [http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128](http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128) (visited on Jul. 20, 2018). <a name=bib-feeney_integrating_2018></a>[Feeney, R. G, D. V. Boelke, J. J. Deroba, et al.](#cite-feeney_integrating_2018) (2018). "Integrating Management Strategy Evaluation into fisheries management: advancing best practices for stakeholder inclusion based on an MSE for Northeast U.S. Atlantic herring". In: _Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences_. ISSN: 0706-652X. DOI: [10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125](https://doi.org/10.1139%2Fcjfas-2018-0125). URL: [http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125](http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125) (visited on Nov. 09, 2018). ## Additional resources * [New England Atlantic herring management](https://www.nefmc.org/management-plans/herring) * [New England herring FMP Amendment 8](https://www.nefmc.org/library/amendment-8-2) * [New England herring MSE peer review](https://s3.amazonaws.com/nefmc.org/Final-Peer-review-report.pdf) * [New England herring MSE debrief](https://s3.amazonaws.com/nefmc.org/3_Herring-MSE-debrief-final-report.pdf) .footnote[ Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations Contact: <Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov> ]