RDM and Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE)

Fishery management in the US: participatory, with wicked problems

Eight regional Fishery Management Councils establish plans for sustainable management of stocks within their jurisdictions. All are governed by the same law, but tailor management to their regional stakeholder needs.

More information: http://www.fisherycouncils.org/
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/topic/laws-policies#magnuson-stevens-act

Are any Atlantic herring harvest control rules good for both fisheries and predators?

What is Management Strategy Evaluation?

The Dream and The Reality

Operating models and uncertainties

Implementation error was included as year-specific lognormal random deviations: $F_{a,y}=\bar{F}_yS_ae^{\varepsilon_{\theta,y}-\frac{\sigma_\theta^2}{2}} \;\;\; \varepsilon_{\theta} \sim N(0,\sigma_\theta^2)$

Assessment error was modeled similarly, with first-order autocorrelation and an optional bias term $\rho$: $\widehat{N}_{a,y}=[N_{a,y}(\rho+1)]e^{\varepsilon_{\phi,y}-\frac{\sigma_\phi^2}{2}}\;\;\;\; \varepsilon_{\phi,y}=\vartheta\varepsilon_{\phi,y-1}+\sqrt{1-\vartheta^2}\tau_y \;\;\;\; \tau \sim N(0,\sigma_\phi^2)$

Linked models matching stakeholder-identified objectives

Predators: deterministic population models and herring-predator links

Results summary

Three HCR types were rejected at the second stakeholder meeting for poor fishery and predator performance.

Managing tradeoffs under uncertainty: What control rules give us 90% of everything we want?

• Tern productivity at 1.0 or above more than 90% of the time
• Herring biomass more than 90% of SSBmsy
• Fishery yield more than 90% of MSY  
• AND fishery closures (F=0) less than 1% of the time (plot on right).

Lessons: testing strategies is key, but uncertainty still difficult to convey

MSE and uncertainty: incorporate scenario planning?

MSE and uncertainty: visualizing many dimensions? Advice from DMDU and RDM?

(Feeney, Boelke, Deroba, et al., 2019)

Conclusions

• NOAA Fisheries supports MSE

  • Dedicated FTE at each Science Center
  • National working group

• Climate and EBFM Roadmaps include

  • Scenario planning
  • MSE

• Enhance with DMDU

References

Deroba, J. J, S. K. Gaichas, M. Lee, et al. (2019). "The dream and the reality: meeting decision-making time frames while incorporating ecosystem and economic models into management strategy evaluation". In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. ISSN: 0706-652X. DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128. URL: http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128 (visited on Jul. 20, 2018).

Feeney, R. G, D. V. Boelke, J. J. Deroba, et al. (2019). "Integrating Management Strategy Evaluation into fisheries management: advancing best practices for stakeholder inclusion based on an MSE for Northeast U.S. Atlantic herring". In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. ISSN: 0706-652X. DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125. URL: http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125 (visited on Nov. 09, 2018).

Holland, D. S. and G. E. Herrera (2009). "Uncertainty in the Management of Fisheries: Contradictory Implications and a New Approach". In: Marine Resource Economics 24.3. Publisher: [MRE Foundation, Inc, The University of Chicago Press], pp. 289-299. ISSN: 0738-1360. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/42629656 (visited on Jul. 14, 2020).

Punt, A. E. and G. P. Donovan (2007). "Developing management procedures that are robust to uncertainty: lessons from the International Whaling Commission". En. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science 64.4. Publisher: Oxford Academic, pp. 603-612. ISSN: 1054-3139. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsm035. URL: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/64/4/603/641398 (visited on Jul. 14, 2020).

Smith, A. D. M. (1994). "Management strategy evaluation – the light on the hill". In: Population dynamics for fisheries management. Ed. by D. Hancock. Perth: Australian Society for Fish Biology, pp. 249-253.

Additional resources

• New England Atlantic herring management

• New England MSE debrief

• MSE video

• Management procedures video

• Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations

• Contact: Sarah.Gaichas@noaa.gov

Thank you!