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Climate and Fisheries Initiative

Management Applications

Sarah Gaichas
Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment
Northeast Fisheries Science Center

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Management needs

  • Real world examples

  • Immediately useful

    • Inseason management

    • Quota specification

    • Management strategy evaluation

    • Ecosystem based management

2 / 9

Inseason forecasts: Illex squid fishery

ROFFS image of warm core ring Apri 2019

proposed use of seasonal forecast in managment for coastal pelagic by Tommasi et al 2017

Manderson, J. 2020. Summary report Northern shortfin squid (Illex illecebrosus) population ecology and the fishery Summit, November 25-26, 2019 Wakefield, Rhode Island, available here.

Tommasi, D., Stock, C.A., Pegion, K., Vecchi, G.A., Methot, R.D., Alexander, M.A., and Checkley, D.M. 2017. Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction. Ecological Applications 27(2): 378–388. doi:10.1002/eap.1458.

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1-3 year forecasts: yellowtail flounder climate-informed assessment

Mean near‐bottom temperatures for July in the Middle Atlantic Bight and southern Gulf of Maine (the data set and processing are described in section 3). Temperature time series station locations (circles); boundaries between four subregions of the MAB (separated by dashed lines): the southern flank of Georges Bank

WHAM model estimate of yellowtail flounder recruitment with no cold pool indexnow with CPI

https://timjmiller.github.io/wham/articles/ex2_CPI_recruitment_SNEMA_yellowtail.html

Lentz, S.J. 2017. Seasonal warming of the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122(2): 941–954. doi:10.1002/2016JC012201.

Miller, T.J., Hare, J.A., and Alade, L.A. 2016. A state-space approach to incorporating environmental effects on recruitment in an age-structured assessment model with an application to southern New England yellowtail flounder. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 73(8): 1261–1270. doi:10.1139/cjfas-2015-0339.

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1-3 year forecasts: yellowtail flounder climate-informed assessment

Comparisons of across-shelf temperature and salinity profiles between glider observation one particular autonomous underwater glider vehicles mission during 14–29 June 2006 and the correspondent model interpolated result. a-trajectory of the glider mission; Right four panels: Hovmöller diagrams of b-Glider Temperature c-Model Temperature d- Glider Salinity and e-Model Salinity profiles with depth in the y axis and time in the x axis

Same as Figure B1 but during 18–29 July 2007

Chen, Z., Curchitser, E., Chant, R., and Kang, D. 2018. Seasonal Variability of the Cold Pool Over the Mid-Atlantic Bight Continental Shelf. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123(11): 8203–8226. doi:10.1029/2018JC014148.

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Forecasts and projections: management strategy evaluation

COCA groundfish project overview from Lisa Kerr

Lisa A. Kerr, Sam Truesdell, Gavin Fay, Jonathan Cummings, Ashley Weston, Steven X. Cadrin, Sarah Gaichas, Min-Yang Lee, Anna Birkenbach, Andrew Pershing. Evaluating the Performance of Northeast Groundfish Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate (funded by NOAA COCA:NA17OAR4310272, 7/1/17-6/30/20)

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Forecasts and projections: ecosystem based fishery management

relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives

Bering Sea FEP Action Module 1: Evaluate short- and long-term effects of climate change on fish and fisheries, and develop management considerations

Bering Sea Fishery Ecosystem Plan cover

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Objectives: (1) coordinate to synthesize results of various ongoing and completed climate change research projects; (2) evaluate the scope of impacts on priority species identified in initial studies; and (3) strategically revaluate management strategies every 5-7 years; (4) include synthesis to evaluate climate-resilient management tools. The climate change Action Module team will work with the Council to iteratively identify and assess the performance of potential short-term, medium and long-term management actions for climate adaptation (i.e., derive alternative strategies for MSEs).

Ecosystem status--improve with forecasts

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets

State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic

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Slides: https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations/ Contact: sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov

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Management needs

  • Real world examples

  • Immediately useful

    • Inseason management

    • Quota specification

    • Management strategy evaluation

    • Ecosystem based management

2 / 9
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