Mid-Atlantic Ecosystem Approach

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

# Mid-Atlantic Ecosystem Approach
## Overview and Progress August 2020
### Sarah Gaichas, Geret DePiper, Brandon Muffley, Richard Seagraves Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council

---

class: top, left

## Mid-Atlantic Council Ecosysytem Approach (work in progress)

Diverse stakeholders agreed that an ecosystem approach was necessary. Developing and implementing an ecosystem approach to fishery management was done in collaboration between managers, stakeholders, and scientists. 
.pull-left[
*Outline*
- Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council Ecosystem Approach (EAFM)

- Mid-Atlantic EAFM indicator-based risk assessment

- Mid-Atlantic EAFM conceptual modeling (towards MSE)

]
.pull-right[
*Integrated Ecosystem Assessment*

![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](EDAB_images/iea-loop.png)

.image-cap[
https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]

???
---
## Mid-Atlantic Council Ecosystem Approach Framework

* 2016 Ecosystem Approach to Fishery Management (EAFM) Policy Guidance document:
http://www.mafmc.org/s/EAFM-Doc-Revised-2019-02-08.pdf

* Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework1:
.center[
![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework with full details in speaker notes, 70%](EDAB_images/Framework.png)
]
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full

.footnote[
[1] Gaichas, S., Seagraves, R., Coakley, J., DePiper, G., Guida, V., Hare, J., Rago, P., et al. 2016. A Framework for Incorporating Species, Fleet, Habitat, and Climate Interactions into Fishery Management. Frontiers in Marine Science, 3.
]

???
The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop on slide 2. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

---

## Iterative development of the risk assessment

.pull-left-40[
![Example risk assessment table with species in rows and risk elements in columns with green cells indicating low risks, yellow and orange cells indicating moderate risks, and red cells indicatig high risk](EDAB_images/fmars-03-00105-g010.jpg)

* Council staff and scientists create examples based on Council input
  
  &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; ...
                                                      
  * Council discusses, clarifies, revises with public input

]

.pull-right-60[

<table class="table table-striped table-condensed" style="font-size: 11px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Element </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Indicators </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Economic</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial Revenue </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not maximizing fishery value </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreational Angler Days/Trips </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not maximizing fishery value </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Numbers of anglers and trips in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial Fishery Resilience (Revenue Diversity) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced fishery business resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Species diversity of revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial Fishery Resilience (Shoreside Support) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to shoreside support infrastructure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of shoreside support businesses </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="2"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Social</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Fleet Resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced fishery resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of fleets, fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social-Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced community resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community vulnerability, fishery engagement and reliance </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="2"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Food Production</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not optimizing seafood production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Seafood landings in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreational </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not maintaining personal food production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Recreational landings in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
## Risk elements: Management
<table class="table table-striped table-condensed" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Element </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Indicators </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Management</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Control </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to inadequate control </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Catch compared to allocation </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Interactions </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to interactions with species managed by other entities </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number and type of interactions with protected or non-MAFMC managed species, co-management </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Other ocean uses </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to other human uses </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Fishery overlap with energy/mining areas </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Regulatory complexity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving compliance due to complexity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of regulations by species </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Discards </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not minimizing bycatch to extent practicable </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Standardized Bycatch Reporting </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Allocation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to spatial mismatch of stocks and management </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Distribution shifts + number of interests </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

.table[
.pull-left[

| Risk Level         | Definition                                                          |  
|:-------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Low  | No trend and low variability in revenue |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in revenue |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term revenue decrease |
| High | Significant recent decrease in revenue |
]
]
.pull-right[
![Total revenue for the region (black) and revenue from MAFMC managed species (red).](20200504_MAFMC_EAFM_Intro_Gaichas_files/figure-html/total-rev-1.png)

![Revenue change from the 2015 base year in 2015 dollars (black), Price (PI), and Volume Indicators (VI) for commercial landings in the Mid-Atlantic.](20200504_MAFMC_EAFM_Intro_Gaichas_files/figure-html/bennet-1.png)

]

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species (red points in top plot)

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2020 update

Management elements updated from original 2017 risk assessment; added risk rankings for chub mackerel and unmanaged forage fish.

### Decreased Risk (5)

* Regulatory complexity risk for summer flounder decreased from high to med-high due to increased consistency in recent years
  * Technical interaction risk for commercial scup decreased from med-high to low-med because no accountability measures have been triggered
  * Allocation risks for recreational Atlantic mackerel, commercial longfin squid, and commercial spiny dogfish dropped from high to low due to changes in management approaches

### Increased Risk (15)

* Bluefish status went from not overfished to overfished
  * Increased discards (5), reduced management control (4), allocation (3), other ocean uses (1), regulatory complexity (1)

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2020 update
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Pred </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommRev </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes4 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FleetDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## EAFM Risk Assessment: 2020 update
*Species and Sector level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 13px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> MgtControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> TecInteract </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OceanUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Chub mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## How is MAFMC using the risk assessment? What's next?
.pull-left[
* Based on risk assessment, the Council selected summer flounder as high-risk fishery for conceptual modeling

![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework, 95%](EDAB_images/Framework.png)
]
.pull-right[
* Working group of habitat, biology, stock assessment, management, economic and social scientists developed:

* draft conceptual models of high risk elements, linkages
  * dataset identification and gap analysis for each element and link
  * draft questions that the Council could persue with additional work
]  
* Final conceptual model and supporting information at December 2019 Council meeting

* Council to proceed with management strategy evaluation (MSE) using the information from conceptual modeling as a basis. Topic: addressing recreational fishery discards with EAFM

---
<div id="htmlwidget-390c9a4b6ac01a863c20" style="width:100%;height:710px;" class="widgetframe html-widget"></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-390c9a4b6ac01a863c20">{"x":{"url":"20200504_MAFMC_EAFM_Intro_Gaichas_files/figure-html//widgets/widget_sfconceptmod.html","options":{"xdomain":"*","allowfullscreen":false,"lazyload":false}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>
???
In this interactive circular graph visualization, model elements identified as important by the Council (through risk assessment) and by the working group (through a range of experience and expertise) are at the perimeter of the circle. Elements are defined in detail in the last section of [this page](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_riskfactors_subplots.html). Relationships between elements are represented as links across the center of the circle to other elements on the perimeter. Links from a model element that affect another element start wide at the base and are color coded to match the category of the element they affect.Hover over a perimeter section (an element) to see all relationships for that element, including links from other elements. Hover over a link to see what it connects. Links by default show text for the two elements and the direction of the relationship (1 for relationship, 0 for no relationship--most links are one direction).For example, hovering over the element "Total Landings" in the full model shows that the working group identified the elements affected by landings as Seafood Production, Recreational Value, and Commercial Profits (three links leading out from landings), and the elements affecting landings as Fluke SSB, Fluke Distributional Shift, Risk Buffering, Management Control, Total Discards, and Shoreside Support (6 links leading into Total Landings).

---
## Council-selected management question:

##Evaluate the biological and economic benefits of minimizing summer flounder discards and converting discards into landings in the recreational sector. Identify management strategies to effectively realize these benefits.
.pull-left[
* Opportunity to align EAFM work with traditional Council process
* Management challenges to address and reduce regulatory discards
    + 90% of rec summer flounder catch is released
* Raised by AP members and stakeholders seeking management to address
* EAFM issue and focus – seven linked categories: Management, Summer Flounder Stock, Science, Fishing Fleets, and Benefits 
]
.pull-right[
![:img screen shot of summer flounder conceptual model with discards highlighted, 100%](EDAB_images/consmod-discards.png)
![:img color categories for conceptual model](EDAB_images/consmod-colorkey.png)
]

---
# Mid-Atlantic EAFM next steps: management strategy evaluation

.pull-left-40[
* Spinning up in 2020-2021 
* Gathering technical committee/working group
* Intro to MSE next
]

.pull-right-60[
![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework, 95%](EDAB_images/Framework.png)
]

---
## Details

* [Mid-Atlantic Council EAFM paper](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full)

* [Mid-Atlantic Council Risk Assessment paper](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/full#h11)

* [Mid-Atlantic Council Summer Flounder conceptual model, support tables](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_riskfactors_subplots.html)

* [Management questions and conceptual model](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_final_2col.html) 
  
* [Mid-Atantic April 2020 EAFM updates, including SOE](https://www.mafmc.org/s/Tab01_2020-SOE-Report_2020-04.pdf)

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations

---
class: inverse
background-image: url("EDAB_images/IMG_2809.jpg")
background-size: cover

## Questions? Thank you!

&nbsp;

.pull-left[
Contacts:  
]
.pull-right[
sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov  
geret.depiper@noaa.gov  
bmuffley@mafmc.org
]