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State of the Ecosystem:

New England 2020

Sarah Gaichas and Kim Bastille
Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment
Northeast Fisheries Science Center

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Today's Talk

  • Review of Ecosystem reporting for NEFMC

  • New! Response memo

  • 2020 New England Report

  • SSC discussion and feedback

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

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State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting: Context for busy people

"So what?" --John Boreman, September 2016

  1. Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives

  2. Synthesis across indicators for big picture

  3. Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report

  4. Short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text

  5. Emphasis on reproducibility

relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives

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In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model

State of the Ecosystem 2020: Response Memo

Our response to the need for more formal response to comments!

  • 30 comments or requests from 2019
  • One addressed by having the response memo
  • 21 addressed within the SOE at SSC/Council request
    • New summary section with synthetic overview addresses 3 requests
    • 5 new indicators added
    • 3 existing indicators modified
    • 5 editorial updates
    • 5 partially addressed requests
  • 8 not currently addressed within SOE
    • 2 have information summaries in the response memo
    • 2 may be addressed by student projects
    • 1 needs feedback on how to deal with known data issue
    • 1 seeking data
    • 1 relevant to 2019 visualization that was replaced in 2020
    • 1 beyond capacity to address at present

SSC feedback requested on the approach and all details, memo has specific questions

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State of the Ecosystem 2020: Structure

Report Structure

  1. Summary 2 pager

  2. Human dimensions

  3. Protected species

  4. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)

  5. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity

Established ecosystem-scale objectives in New England

Objective Categories Indicators reported here
Seafood Production Landings by feeding guild
Profits Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation Days fished; recreational catch
Stability Diversity indices (fishery and species)
Social & Cultural Commercial engagement trends
Biomass Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity
Trophic structure Relative biomass of feeding guilds, Zooplankton
Habitat Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions
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Memo 1-2: Summary 2 pager with visualizations

State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets

State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic

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Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty

Spring (left) and fall (right) NEFSC surveyed biomass on Georges Bank. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean.

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Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty questions: try model based (VAST)?

VAST model Georges Bank piscivores biomass estimate with uncertainty

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Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty questions: VAST? plus

VAST model Georges Bank piscivores biomass estimate with uncertainty

Uncertainty already included in:

  • Right whale abundance

Uncertainty difficult to include in:

  • Landings
  • Some diversity indices
  • Condition and productivity plots

Priorities for uncertainty in other indicators?

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Memo 4: Downeast ME (EPU-survey strata update)

NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

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Diagram with possible relationships between oceanographic and habitat indicators

Same diagram as on the left

Conceptual model links indicators in the report with management objectives.

A subset of objectives are currently under investigation using GAMs. We plan to extend this work with structural equation modeling and or other methods in 2020.

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Memo 6: Ocean Acidification

NOAA is finalizing an Ocean Acidification research plan1.

Work is in progress to to bolster monitoring and to develop a baseline climatology for our region.

US East Coast with ph

A time series indicator may be several years away. Until then, we seek feedback on what available information (for example, initial monitoring2) would be useful to the Councils right now.

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Memo 7: Gulf Stream and Labrador Current

Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall. Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position.

Proportion of Warm Slope Water (WSW) and Labrador slope water (LSLW) entering the GOM through the Northeast Channel.

Memo 11: Warm Core Rings

Interannual Variability of the WCR formation between 1980 and 2019. The regime shift (denoted by the split in the red solid line) is significant at the turn of the century.  Figure reproduced with permission from Gangopadhyay, et al. (2019).  2018 and 2019 data points based on personal communication with A. Gangopadhyay (2020).

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MAFMC requested that this indicator be included (in past years it was in the New England report only).

Memo 8: PP Source

Satellite for all indicators

Map of 2019 chlorophyll a anomalies by season from satellite data

Memo 9: Shellfish Growth

Roger Mann (VIMS) looking to fund student at NEFSC to evaluate

Memo 10: Power Plants

Unable to address this aspect of estuarine water quality this year, but see 13

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Memo 12: Cold Pool Index

Temperature anomaly in cold pool region, defined as the area with a mean September-October bottom temperature <12°C from 1963 to 2013.

Temperature change within the cold pool vs. volume or other metric?

Three dimensional map of the Northeast US shelf showing major bottom

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Memo 13: Estuarine Water Quality

Chesapeake Bay water quality update Salinity in Chesapeake Bay throughout 2018 (blue) and 2019 (red)  as well as the daily average 2008-2019 (black) and the full observed range 2008-2019 (gray shading).

High precipitation let to extreme low salinity event in spring 2019


What spatial scale to combine NERR data?

What indicators of most interest?

Use existing thresholds?

How best to incorporate NERR data? Map for status of an example indicator across all National Esturarine Research Reserves

Dissolved inorganic Nitrogen at the Menauhant sampling station in Waquoit Bay

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Primary Production Required to support landings (see also Memo 5, Memo 15)

Primary production required to support the commercial landings on Georges Bank (left) and in the Gulf of Maine (right). Included are the top species accounting for 80\% of the landings in each year, with 15\% transfer efficiency assumed between trophic levels.

Transfer efficiency 15%

Unlagged landings and primary production

Landings threshold 80%

Which sensitivities to explore?

Georges Bank species comprising 80% of landings species included in 80% of landings on Georges Bank

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Commercial engagement scores (total pounds landed, value landed, commercial permits, and commercial dealers in a community)  for New England fishing communities, 2004-2018.

Increase in highly engaged New England communities; changing score driven by scallop and lobster value?

Revenue change from the 2015 base year in 2015 dollars (black), Price (PI), and Volume Indicators (VI) for commercial benthos landings on Georges Bank (left) and for commercial benthivore landings in the Gulf of Maine (right)

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Memo 15: Wind Energy Habitat Overlap

Existing - North
Proposed - North
Existing - Mid
Proposed - Mid
Existing - South
Season Species Trend Species Trend Species Trend Species Trend Species Trend
Spring Little Skate `` Atlantic Herring Little Skate `` Spiny Dogfish `` Spiny Dogfish ``
Spring Atlantic Herring `` Little Skate `` Atlantic Herring `` Atlantic Herring `` Longfin Squid ``
Spring Windowpane `` Longhorn Sculpin `` Spiny Dogfish `` Little Skate `` Summer Flounder ``
Spring Winter Skate `` Windowpane `` Windowpane `` Alewife `` Clearnose Skate ``
Spring Longhorn Sculpin `` Alewife `` Winter Skate `` Silver Hake `` Spotted Hake ``
Fall Butterfish `` Butterfish `` Summer Flounder `` Longhorn Sculpin `` Longfin Squid ``
Fall Longfin Squid `` Fourspot Flounder Longfin Squid `` Little Skate `` Northern Searobin ``
Fall Summer Flounder `` Longhorn Sculpin `` Butterfish `` Butterfish `` Clearnose Skate ``
Fall Winter Flounder `` Summer Flounder `` Smooth Dogfish `` Sea Scallop `` Butterfish ``
Fall Spiny Dogfish `` Spiny Dogfish `` Windowpane `` Fourspot Flounder `` Spiny Dogfish/Spotted Hake ``

Map of BOEM existing (black) and proposed (red) lease areas in North (N), Mid (M) and South (S) portions of the coast as of February 2019.

Fishery overlap to be added

What habitat model outputs most useful?

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Memo 16: Other Social Science Indicators

Included https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/humandimensions/social-indicators/

Memo 17: Management Complexity

Define how to use indicator to refine further

Memo 18: SAFMC and ASMFC Species

Unchanged NE rec. catch diversity trend

Recreational effort diversity and diversity of recreational catch in the New England.

Blue runner presence on Northeast Shelf

Memo 19: Conceptual Model Social Elements

Not added because the previous conceptual model was replaced

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Memo 20: Fish Diet Indicators

 Stomach Fullness Anomaly in New England.

Define objectives for this indicator for further refinement.

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Memo 21: Right Whale Calves

Number of North Atlantic right whale calf births, 1990 - 2019.

Memo 22: Distinguish Managed Species

Council-managed species separated in landings plots; see Appendix table.

Memo 23: Marine Mammal Consumption

Seal diet information added, but inadequate information to estimate consumption.

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Memo 24: Small Pelagic Abundance

Spring (left) and fall (right) surveyed biomass of planktivores on Georges Bank. Data from the NEFSC Bottom Trawl Survey are shown in black. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean.

Attempt VAST? Other data sources and suggestions? Forage energy density:

Spring 2017
Fall 2017
Spring 2018
Fall 2018
Total
1980s
1990s
Species ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED (SD) N ED ED (SD)
Alewife 6.84 (1.62) 128 8.12 (1.46) 50 6.45 (1.21) 47 7.41 (1.6) 42 7.1 (1.62) 267 6.4
Atl. Herring 5.34 (0.94) 122 5.77 (1.31) 52 6.69 (0.85) 51 5.41 (1.34) 50 5.69 (1.19) 275 10.6 9.4 (1.4)
Atl. Mackerel NA 7.24 (1.13) 50 5.33 (0.86) 51 6.89 (1.07) 50 6.48 (1.32) 151 6.0
Butterfish 7.13 (1.59) 65 7.31 (1.45) 89 4.91 (1.12) 53 8.1 (2.7) 50 6.92 (2.04) 257 6.2
Illex 5.54 (0.4) 77 5.43 (0.51) 52 5.5 (0.52) 50 4.76 (0.79) 50 5.33 (0.63) 229 7.1 5.9 (0.56)
Loligo 5.22 (0.36) 83 5.24 (0.26) 60 4.84 (0.63) 52 4.6 (0.72) 50 5.02 (0.56) 245 5.6
Sand lance 6.66 (0.54) 18 NA 5.78 (0.34) 60 7.99 (0.74) 8 6.17 (0.81) 86 6.8 4.4 (0.82)
Silver hake 4.25 (0.39) 189 4.42 (0.45) 50 4.19 (0.39) 50 4.55 (0.63) 50 4.31 (0.46) 339 4.6
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Memo 25: Young of Year Index

Memo 26: Shark Biomass

Still looking for a source; HMS provided 2017-2019 landings

Memo 27: Trawl Species Diversity

Inappropriate to combine Albatross and Bigelow--separate indices?

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Memo 28: Ecosystem Risk Score

Options from the literature, or combine existing indicators?

Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) on Georges Bank.

img: January - December 2019 sea surface temperatures above 90th percentile of average

Maximum intensity heatwave anomaly on Georges Bank occurring on August 23, 2019.

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Memo 29: Thresholds and Inflection Points

Individual indicators or using many indicators at once? Single indicator example:

Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) in the Gulf of Maine .

Lots of academic work on this: what is a useful starting point?

Large, S. I., Fay, G., Friedland, K. D., and Link, J. S. 2013. Defining trends and thresholds in responses of ecological indicators to fishing and environmental pressures. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 755–767.

Large, S. I., Fay, G., Friedland, K. D., and Link, J. S. 2015. Quantifying Patterns of Change in Marine Ecosystem Response to Multiple Pressures: e0119922. PLoS One, 10. http://search.proquest.com/docview/1664222461/abstract/120C1207C54548BEPQ/1 (Accessed 14 October 2016).

Samhouri, J. F., Andrews, K. S., Fay, G., Harvey, C. J., Hazen, E. L., Hennessey, S. M., Holsman, K., et al. 2017. Defining ecosystem thresholds for human activities and environmental pressures in the California Current. Ecosphere, 8: e01860.

Tam, J. C., Link, J. S., Large, S. I., Andrews, K., Friedland, K. D., Gove, J., Hazen, E., et al. 2017. Comparing Apples to Oranges: Common Trends and Thresholds in Anthropogenic and Environmental Pressures across Multiple Marine Ecosystems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4. Frontiers. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2017.00282/full (Accessed 9 March 2020).

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SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
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SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
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SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
27 / 32

SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
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SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
27 / 32

SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
27 / 32

SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
27 / 32

SOE Take Home Messages

  • Primary production required to support commercial fisheries has declined since 2000
  • Commercial fishing engagement has increased in some communities, and New England commercial fisheries catch and revenue remain dependent on single species (lobster and scallops)
  • Commercial catch and revenue increased in 2018 (due to lobster and scallops)
  • Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for NEFMC species except for Atlantic herring
  • While aggregate fish biomass is mainly stable over time (aside from high haddock), shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue
  • Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s
  • Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
  • Almost no cold Labrador slope water has entered the Gulf of Maine for the last 3 years
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SOE Take Home Messages

  • The Gulf of Maine has changed over the past decade

    • Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and surface water is warming
    • Small zooplankton are more abundant than large fatty zooplankton favored by right whales
    • Spring blooms below average since 2013
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SOE Take Home Messages

  • The Gulf of Maine has changed over the past decade

    • Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and surface water is warming
    • Small zooplankton are more abundant than large fatty zooplankton favored by right whales
    • Spring blooms below average since 2013
  • Georges Bank has also experienced warming and heat waves over the past decade

    • Surrounded by warm core rings in summer 2019
    • Small zooplankton also dominant here
    • Average phytoplankton biomass in 2019
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Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 intstitutions

Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Andy Beet
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Geret DePiper
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Sarah Gaichas
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
John Kocik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society)
Scott Large

Don Lyons (National Audubon Society)
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Sean Lucey
Chris Melrose
Ryan Morse
Kimberly Murray
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Charles Perretti
Vincent Saba
Laurel Smith
Mark Terceiro
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Mark Wuenschel

NOAA Fisheries IEA logo

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Appendix: Updated feeding guilds

Feeding guilds and management bodies.
Guild MAFMC Joint NEFMC State or Other
Apex Predator NA NA NA bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna
Piscivore bluefish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid, summer flounder goosefish, spiny dogfish acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane
Planktivore atlantic mackerel, butterfish NA atlantic herring alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl
Benthivore black sea bass, scup, tilefish NA american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog
Benthos atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog NA sea scallop blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs)
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Questions? Thank you!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contacts:

sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov

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Today's Talk

  • Review of Ecosystem reporting for NEFMC

  • New! Response memo

  • 2020 New England Report

  • SSC discussion and feedback

The IEA Loop1 IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

2 / 32
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