State of the Ecosystem:Mid-Atlantic 2020
 with updates to EAFM Risk AssessmentSarah Gaichas and Kim Bastille 
 Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment 
 Northeast Fisheries Science Center1 / 36

Today's Talk

Role of Ecosystem reporting in MAFMC EAFM
New! Response memo
2020 Mid-Atlantic Report
EAFM risk assessment update
SSC discussion and feedback

The IEA Loop¹ IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks

[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach

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Mid-Atlantic Council Ecosystem Approach

2016 EAFM Policy Guidance document; revised 2019¹
MAFMC EAFM framework²
2017 Inital EAFM risk assessment completed; revised and published 2018³
SOE indicators to be used for annual risk assessment updates

[1] http://www.mafmc.org/s/EAFM-Doc-Revised-2019-02-08.pdf [2] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full [3] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/full

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The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop on slide 2. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed.

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting: Context for busy people

"So what?" --John Boreman, September 2016

Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives
Synthesis across indicators for big picture
Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report
Short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text
Emphasis on reproducibility

relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives

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In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model

State of the Ecosystem 2020: Response Memo

Our response to the need for more formal response to comments!

30 comments or requests from 2019
One addressed by having the response memo
21 addressed within the SOE at SSC/Council request
- New summary section with synthetic overview addresses 3 requests
- 5 new indicators added
- 3 existing indicators modified
- 5 editorial updates
- 5 partially addressed requests
8 not currently addressed within SOE
- 2 have information summaries in the response memo
- 2 may be addressed by student projects
- 1 needs feedback on how to deal with known data issue
- 1 seeking data
- 1 relevant to 2019 visualization that was replaced in 2020
- 1 beyond capacity to address at present

SSC feedback requested on the approach and all details, memo has specific questions

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State of the Ecosystem 2020: Structure

Report Structure

Summary 2 pager
Human dimensions
Protected species
Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)
Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity

Established ecosystem-scale objectives in the Mid-Atlantic

Objective Categories	Indicators reported here
Seafood Production	Landings by feeding guild
Profits	Revenue decomposed to price and volume
Recreation	Days fished; recreational catch
Stability	Diversity indices (fishery and species)
Social & Cultural	Commercial engagement trends
Biomass	Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys
Productivity	Condition and recruitment of managed species, Primary productivity
Trophic structure	Relative biomass of feeding guilds, Zooplankton
Habitat	Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions

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State of the Ecosystem page 1 summary bullets

State of the Ecosystem page 2 infographic

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Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty

Spring (left) and fall (right) surveyed biomass in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Data from the NEFSC Bottom Trawl Survey are shown in black, with NEAMAP shown in red. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean.

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Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty questions: VAST?

VAST model Georges Bank piscivores biomass estimate with uncertainty

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Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty questions: VAST? plus

VAST model Georges Bank piscivores biomass estimate with uncertainty

Uncertainty already included in:

Right whale abundance

Uncertainty difficult to include in:

Landings
Some diversity indices
Condition and productivity plots

Priorities for uncertainty in other indicators?

Recommended methods?

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Memo 4: Downeast ME (EPU-survey strata update)

NEFSC survey strata used to calculate Ecosystem Production Unit biomass

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Memo 5: Link zooplankton, fish condition

Diagram with possible relationships between oceanographic and habitat indicators

Same diagram as on the left

Conceptual model links indicators in the report with management objectives.

A subset of objectives are currently under investigation using GAMs. We plan to extend this work with structural equation modeling and or other methods in 2020.

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Memo 6: Ocean Acidification

NOAA is finalizing an Ocean Acidification research plan¹.

Work is in progress to to bolster monitoring and to develop a baseline climatology for our region.

US East Coast with ph

A time series indicator may be several years away. Until then, we seek feedback on what available information (for example, initial monitoring²) would be useful to the Councils right now.

[1] https://sab.noaa.gov/sites/SAB/Meetings/2019_Documents/Dec_Meeting/2020%20OA%20Research%20Plan%20DRAFT%20External%20Review.pdf [2] https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/ocd/ocdweb/occ_oa.html

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Memo 7: Gulf Stream and Labrador Current

Index representing changes in the location of the Gulf Stream north wall. Positive values represent a more northerly Gulf Stream position.

Proportion of Warm Slope Water (WSW) and Labrador slope water (LSLW) entering the GOM through the Northeast Channel.

Memo 11: Warm Core Rings

Interannual Variability of the WCR formation between 1980 and 2019. The regime shift (denoted by the split in the red solid line) is significant at the turn of the century. Figure reproduced with permission from Gangopadhyay, et al. (2019). 2018 and 2019 data points based on personal communication with A. Gangopadhyay (2020).

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MAFMC requested that this indicator be included (in past years it was in the New England report only).

Memo 8: PP Source

Satellite for all indicators

Map of 2019 chlorophyll a anomalies by season from satellite data

Memo 9: Shellfish Growth

Roger Mann (VIMS) looking to fund student at NEFSC to evaluate

Memo 10: Power Plants

Unable to address this aspect of estuarine water quality this year, but see 13

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Memo 12: Cold Pool Index

Temperature anomaly in cold pool region, defined as the area with a mean September-October bottom temperature <12°C from 1963 to 2013.

Temperature change within the cold pool vs. volume or other metric?

Three dimensional map of the Northeast US shelf showing major bottom

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Memo 13: Estuarine Water Quality

Chesapeake Bay water quality update Salinity in Chesapeake Bay throughout 2018 (blue) and 2019 (red) as well as the daily average 2008-2019 (black) and the full observed range 2008-2019 (gray shading).

High precipitation let to extreme low salinity event in spring 2019

What spatial scale to combine NERR data?

What indicators of most interest?

Use existing thresholds?

How best to incorporate NERR data? Map for status of an example indicator across all National Esturarine Research Reserves

Dissolved inorganic Nitrogen at the Menauhant sampling station in Waquoit Bay

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Memo 14: Link Environment and Society

Primary Production Required to support landings (see also Memo 5, Memo 15)

$Primary production required to support MAB commercial landings. Included are the top species accounting for 80\% of the landings in each year, with 15\% transfer efficiency assumed between trophic levels.$

Transfer efficiency 15%

Unlagged landings and primary production

Landings threshold 80%

Which sensitivities to explore?

species included in 80% of landings in the Mid Atlantic

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New Indicator: Fishery links to society

Commercial engagement scores (total pounds landed, value landed, commercial permits, and commercial dealers in a community) for Mid-Atlantic fishing communities, 2004-2018.

Fewer highly engaged Mid-Atlantic communities; engagement scores for medium-highly engaged communities decreasing, linked to landings/revenue?

Total commercial seafood landings (black) and Mid-Atlantic managed seafood landings (red).

Total revenue for the region (black) and revenue from MAFMC managed species (red).

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Memo 15: Wind Energy Habitat Overlap

	Existing - North		Proposed - North		Existing - Mid		Proposed - Mid		Existing - South
Season	Species	Trend	Species	Trend	Species	Trend	Species	Trend	Species	Trend
Spring	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Atlantic Herring		Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Atlantic Herring	` $\searrow$ `	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Atlantic Herring	` $\searrow$ `	Atlantic Herring	` $\searrow$ `	Longfin Squid	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Winter Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Alewife	` $\searrow$ `	Clearnose Skate	` $\nearrow$ `
Spring	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\nearrow$ `	Alewife	` $\searrow$ `	Winter Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Silver Hake	` $\nearrow$ `	Spotted Hake	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\nearrow$ `	Longfin Squid	` $\searrow$ `
Fall	Longfin Squid	` $\nearrow$ `	Fourspot Flounder		Longfin Squid	` $\nearrow$ `	Little Skate	` $\nearrow$ `	Northern Searobin	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Longhorn Sculpin	` $\searrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Clearnose Skate	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Winter Flounder	` $\searrow$ `	Summer Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Smooth Dogfish	` $\nearrow$ `	Sea Scallop	` $\nearrow$ `	Butterfish	` $\nearrow$ `
Fall	Spiny Dogfish	` $\searrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish	` $\searrow$ `	Windowpane	` $\nearrow$ `	Fourspot Flounder	` $\nearrow$ `	Spiny Dogfish/Spotted Hake	` $\nearrow$ `

Map of BOEM existing (black) and proposed (red) lease areas in North (N), Mid (M) and South (S) portions of the coast as of February 2019.

Fishery overlap to be added

What habitat model outputs most useful?

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Included https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/humandimensions/social-indicators/

Memo 17: Management Complexity

Define how to use indicator in risk assessment to refine further

Memo 18: SAFMC and ASMFC Species

Splitting out SAFMC, ASMFC removed downward catch diversity trend

Recreational effort diversity and diversity of recreational catch in the Mid-Atlantic.

Blue runner presence on Northeast Shelf

Not added because the previous conceptual model was replaced

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Memo 20: Fish Diet Indicators

Stomach fullness anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight.

Define objectives for this indicator for further refinement.

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Memo 21: Right Whale Calves

Number of North Atlantic right whale calf births, 1990 - 2019.

Memo 22: Distinguish Managed Species

Council-managed species separated in landings plots; see Appendix table.

Memo 23: Marine Mammal Consumption

Seal diet information added, but inadequate information to estimate consumption.

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Memo 24: Small Pelagic Abundance

Spring (left) and fall (right) surveyed biomass of planktivores in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Data from the NEFSC Bottom Trawl Survey are shown in black, with NEAMAP shown in red. The shaded area around each annual mean represents 2 standard deviations from the mean.

Attempt VAST? Other data sources and suggestions? Forage energy density:

	Spring 2017		Fall 2017		Spring 2018		Fall 2018		Total		1980s	1990s
Species	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED (SD)	N	ED	ED (SD)
Alewife	6.84 (1.62)	128	8.12 (1.46)	50	6.45 (1.21)	47	7.41 (1.6)	42	7.1 (1.62)	267	6.4
Atl. Herring	5.34 (0.94)	122	5.77 (1.31)	52	6.69 (0.85)	51	5.41 (1.34)	50	5.69 (1.19)	275	10.6	9.4 (1.4)
Atl. Mackerel		NA	7.24 (1.13)	50	5.33 (0.86)	51	6.89 (1.07)	50	6.48 (1.32)	151	6.0
Butterfish	7.13 (1.59)	65	7.31 (1.45)	89	4.91 (1.12)	53	8.1 (2.7)	50	6.92 (2.04)	257	6.2
Illex	5.54 (0.4)	77	5.43 (0.51)	52	5.5 (0.52)	50	4.76 (0.79)	50	5.33 (0.63)	229	7.1	5.9 (0.56)
Loligo	5.22 (0.36)	83	5.24 (0.26)	60	4.84 (0.63)	52	4.6 (0.72)	50	5.02 (0.56)	245	5.6
Sand lance	6.66 (0.54)	18		NA	5.78 (0.34)	60	7.99 (0.74)	8	6.17 (0.81)	86	6.8	4.4 (0.82)
Silver hake	4.25 (0.39)	189	4.42 (0.45)	50	4.19 (0.39)	50	4.55 (0.63)	50	4.31 (0.46)	339	4.6

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Memo 25: Young of Year Index

Small fish per large fish biomass anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. The summed anomaly across species is shown by the black line.

Memo 26: Shark Biomass

Still looking for a source; HMS provided 2017-2019 landings

Memo 27: Trawl Species Diversity

Inappropriate to combine Albatross and Bigelow--separate indices?

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Memo 28: Ecosystem Risk Score

Options from the literature, or combine existing indicators?

Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) in the Mid-Atlantic Bight.

img: January - December 2019 sea surface temperatures above 90th percentile of average

Maximum intensity heatwave anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic Bight occurring on July 22, 2019.

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Memo 29: Thresholds and Inflection Points

Individual indicators or using many indicators at once? Single indicator example:

Marine heatwave cumulative intensity (left) and maximum intensity (right) in the Gulf of Maine .

Lots of academic work on this: what is a useful starting point?

Large, S. I., Fay, G., Friedland, K. D., and Link, J. S. 2013. Defining trends and thresholds in responses of ecological indicators to fishing and environmental pressures. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 755–767.

Large, S. I., Fay, G., Friedland, K. D., and Link, J. S. 2015. Quantifying Patterns of Change in Marine Ecosystem Response to Multiple Pressures: e0119922. PLoS One, 10. http://search.proquest.com/docview/1664222461/abstract/120C1207C54548BEPQ/1 (Accessed 14 October 2016).

Samhouri, J. F., Andrews, K. S., Fay, G., Harvey, C. J., Hazen, E. L., Hennessey, S. M., Holsman, K., et al. 2017. Defining ecosystem thresholds for human activities and environmental pressures in the California Current. Ecosphere, 8: e01860.

Tam, J. C., Link, J. S., Large, S. I., Andrews, K., Friedland, K. D., Gove, J., Hazen, E., et al. 2017. Comparing Apples to Oranges: Common Trends and Thresholds in Anthropogenic and Environmental Pressures across Multiple Marine Ecosystems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4. Frontiers. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2017.00282/full (Accessed 9 March 2020).

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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity 
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species 
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species   
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species 
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species   
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species   
While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue 
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species   
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species   
While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue   
Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s 
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species   
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species   
While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue   
Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s   
Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species   
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species   
While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue   
Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s   
Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019  
Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species   
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species   
While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue   
Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s   
Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019  
Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf  
Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and the cold pool are warming
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SOE Take Home MessagesPrimary production required to support commercial fisheries is declining along with landings and revenue (as primary production has increased) 
Commercial fishing engagement has declined for medium-highly engaged communities 
Recreational retained catch was lowest observed in 2018, and effort has been declining along with fleet effort diversity   
Recreational catch diversity has been maintained by SAFMC/ASMFC species   
Habitat models identified species most likely to occur in wind lease areas; habitat has improved in wind lease areas for these MAFMC species   
While aggregate fish biomass is stable over time, shifts to the northeast and into deeper water continue   
Forage fish energy content varies by season and year; herring energy content may be half what it was in the 1980s-90s   
Heavy rains put unprecedented fresh water and nutrients into Chesapeake Bay in 2018-2019  
Gulf stream instability produces more warm core rings with higher likelihood of warm salty water and associated species on the shelf  
Marine surface water heatwaves are increasing in duration and intensity, bottom temperatures and the cold pool are warming  
Warmer waters increase nutrient recycling and summer primary production
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EAFM Risk Assessment update (I)

Management elements updated from original 2017 risk assessment; added risk rankings for chub mackerel and unmanaged forage fish.

Decreased Risk (5)

Regulatory complexity risk for summer flounder decreased from high to med-high due to increased consistency in recent years
Technical interaction risk for commercial scup decreased from med-high to low-med because no accountability measures have been triggered
Allocation risks for recreational Atlantic mackerel, commercial longfin squid, and commercial spiny dogfish dropped from high to low due to changes in management approaches

Increased Risk (15)

Bluefish status went from not overfished to overfished
Increased discards (5), reduced management control (4), allocation (3), other ocean uses (1), regulatory complexity (1)

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EAFM Risk Assessment update (II)

Re-evaluate Risk (2)

Chesapeake Bay water quality
Recreational retained catch/seafood production

Potential New Risk Indicators (3)

Commercial fishery engagement time series
Recreational diversity indices (fleet and catch)
Other ocean uses: fish habitat overlap with wind energy lease areas

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EAFM Risk Assessment: 2020 update

Species level risk elements

Species	Assess	Fstatus	Bstatus	FW1Pred	FW1Prey	FW2Prey	Climate	DistShift	EstHabitat
Ocean Quahog	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	highest	modhigh	lowest
Surfclam	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	modhigh	lowest
Summer flounder	lowest	lowest	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	highest
Scup	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	highest
Black sea bass	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	modhigh	highest
Atl. mackerel	lowest	highest	highest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	lowest
Butterfish	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	highest	lowest
Longfin squid	lowmod	lowmod	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowmod	lowest	modhigh	lowest
Shortfin squid	lowmod	lowmod	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowmod	lowest	highest	lowest
Golden tilefish	lowest	lowest	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	lowest	lowest
Blueline tilefish	highest	highest	modhigh	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	lowest	lowest
Bluefish	lowest	lowest	highest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	highest
Spiny dogfish	lowmod	lowest	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	highest	lowest
Monkfish	highest	lowmod	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	lowest
Unmanaged forage	na	na	na	lowest	lowmod	lowmod	na	na	na
Deepsea corals	na	na	na	lowest	lowest	lowest	na	na	na

Ecosystem level risk elements

System	EcoProd	CommRev	RecVal	FishRes1	FishRes4	FleetDiv	Social	ComFood	RecFood
Mid-Atlantic	lowmod	modhigh	highest	lowest	modhigh	lowest	lowmod	highest	modhigh

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EAFM Risk Assessment: 2020 update

Species and Sector level risk elements

Species	MgtControl	TecInteract	OceanUse	RegComplex	Discards	Allocation
Ocean Quahog-C	lowest	lowest	lowmod	lowest	modhigh	lowest
Surfclam-C	lowest	lowest	lowmod	lowest	modhigh	lowest
Summer flounder-R	modhigh	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	highest	highest
Summer flounder-C	lowmod	modhigh	lowmod	modhigh	modhigh	highest
Scup-R	lowmod	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	modhigh	highest
Scup-C	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	modhigh	modhigh	highest
Black sea bass-R	highest	lowest	modhigh	highest	highest	highest
Black sea bass-C	highest	lowmod	highest	modhigh	highest	highest
Atl. mackerel-R	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowmod
Atl. mackerel-C	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	highest	lowmod	highest
Butterfish-C	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	highest	modhigh	lowest
Longfin squid-C	lowest	modhigh	highest	highest	highest	lowmod
Shortfin squid-C	lowmod	lowmod	lowmod	lowmod	lowest	highest
Golden tilefish-R	na	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest
Golden tilefish-C	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest
Blueline tilefish-R	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	lowest	highest
Blueline tilefish-C	lowest	lowest	lowest	modhigh	lowest	highest
Bluefish-R	lowmod	lowest	lowest	lowmod	modhigh	highest
Bluefish-C	lowest	lowest	lowmod	lowmod	lowmod	highest
Spiny dogfish-R	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest	lowest
Spiny dogfish-C	lowest	modhigh	modhigh	modhigh	lowmod	modhigh
Chub mackerel-C	lowest	lowmod	lowmod	lowmod	lowest	lowest
Unmanaged forage	lowest	lowest	modhigh	lowest	lowest	lowest
Deepsea corals	na	na	modhigh	na	na	na

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External Resources

SOE Technical Documentation
ecodata R package
ERDDAP server
Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations/

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Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 intstitutions

Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Andy Beet
Patricia Clay
Lisa Colburn
Geret DePiper
Michael Fogarty
Paula Fratantoni
Kevin Friedland
Sarah Gaichas
Avijit Gangopadhyay (School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Sean Hardison
Kimberly Hyde
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
John Kosik
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society)
Scott Large

Don Lyons (National Audubon Society)
Ruth Boettcher (Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Zhuomin Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
Sean Lucey
Chris Melrose
Ryan Morse
Kimberly Murray
Chris Orphanides
Richard Pace
Charles Perretti
Vincent Saba
Laurel Smith
Mark Terceiro
John Walden
Harvey Walsh
Mark Wuenschel

NOAA Fisheries IEA logo

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Appendix: Updated feeding guilds
Feeding guilds and management bodies.
 
    Guild 
    MAFMC 
    Joint 
    NEFMC 
    State or Other 
  


    Apex Predator 
    NA 
    NA 
    NA 
    bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna 
  

    Piscivore 
    bluefish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid, summer flounder 
    goosefish, spiny dogfish 
    acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate 
    fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane 
  

    Planktivore 
    atlantic mackerel, butterfish 
    NA 
    atlantic herring 
    alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl 
  

    Benthivore 
    black sea bass, scup, tilefish 
    NA 
    american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder 
    american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog 
  

    Benthos 
    atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog 
    NA 
    sea scallop 
    blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs) 
  

35 / 36

Feeding guilds and management bodies.
Guild	MAFMC	Joint	NEFMC	State or Other
Apex Predator	NA	NA	NA	bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna
Piscivore	bluefish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid, summer flounder	goosefish, spiny dogfish	acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate	fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane
Planktivore	atlantic mackerel, butterfish	NA	atlantic herring	alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl
Benthivore	black sea bass, scup, tilefish	NA	american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder	american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog
Benthos	atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog	NA	sea scallop	blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs)

Questions? Thank you!

Contacts:

sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov

36 / 36

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State of the Ecosystem:

Mid-Atlantic 2020 with updates to EAFM Risk Assessment

Sarah Gaichas and Kim Bastille Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment Northeast Fisheries Science Center

Today's Talk

Mid-Atlantic Council Ecosystem Approach

State of the Ecosystem (SOE) Reporting: Context for busy people

State of the Ecosystem 2020: Response Memo

State of the Ecosystem 2020: Structure

Report Structure

Memo 1-2: Summary 2 pager with visualizations

Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty

Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty questions: VAST?

Memo 3: Indicator uncertainty questions: VAST? plus

Priorities for uncertainty in other indicators?

Recommended methods?

Memo 4: Downeast ME (EPU-survey strata update)

Memo 5: Link zooplankton, fish condition

Memo 6: Ocean Acidification

Memo 7: Gulf Stream and Labrador Current

Memo 11: Warm Core Rings

Memo 8: PP Source

Memo 9: Shellfish Growth

Memo 10: Power Plants

Memo 12: Cold Pool Index

Memo 13: Estuarine Water Quality

What spatial scale to combine NERR data?

What indicators of most interest?

Use existing thresholds?

Memo 14: Link Environment and Society

Transfer efficiency 15%

Unlagged landings and primary production

Landings threshold 80%

Which sensitivities to explore?

New Indicator: Fishery links to society

Memo 15: Wind Energy Habitat Overlap

Fishery overlap to be added

What habitat model outputs most useful?

Memo 16: Other Social Science Indicators

Memo 17: Management Complexity

Memo 18: SAFMC and ASMFC Species

Memo 19: Conceptual Model Social Elements

Memo 20: Fish Diet Indicators

Memo 21: Right Whale Calves

Memo 22: Distinguish Managed Species

Memo 23: Marine Mammal Consumption

Memo 24: Small Pelagic Abundance

Memo 25: Young of Year Index

Memo 26: Shark Biomass

Memo 27: Trawl Species Diversity

Memo 28: Ecosystem Risk Score

Memo 29: Thresholds and Inflection Points

Lots of academic work on this: what is a useful starting point?

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

SOE Take Home Messages

EAFM Risk Assessment update (I)

Decreased Risk (5)

Increased Risk (15)

EAFM Risk Assessment update (II)

Re-evaluate Risk (2)

Potential New Risk Indicators (3)

EAFM Risk Assessment: 2020 update

EAFM Risk Assessment: 2020 update

External Resources

Contributors - THANK YOU!

Appendix: Updated feeding guilds

Questions? Thank you!

Today's Talk

Help

Mid-Atlantic 2020
with updates to EAFM Risk Assessment

Sarah Gaichas and Kim Bastille
Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment
Northeast Fisheries Science Center