What is Ecosystem Based Fishery Management?

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

# What is Ecosystem Based Fishery Management?
## Marine Resource Education Program Science Workshop, February 2020
### Sarah Gaichas, Northeast Fisheries Science Center with key slides from Jason Link, NOAA Senior Scientist for Ecosystem Management

---

class: top, left

# What do *you* think EBFM means?
---
# Policy defines EBFM as:

## A systematic approach to fisheries management in a geographically specified area that contributes to the resilience and sustainability of the ecosystem; recognizes the physical, biological, economic, and social interactions among the affected fishery-related components of the ecosystem, including humans; and seeks to optimize benefits among a diverse set of societal goals.

.center[
![:img relating environment marine habitat and the marine community to human activities social systems and objectives, 60%](EDAB_images/nes-components-abstracted.png)
]

.footnote[
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/ecosystem-based-fisheries-management-policy
]
---
![:img Levels of ecosystem-based management in relation to marine fisheries management, 97%](EDAB_images/acronymdecoder.png)

.footnote[
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/ecosystems/implementing-ecosystem-based-fisheries-management#understanding-the-levels-of-ecosystem-based-management
]
---
## EBFM Guiding Principles

![Five supporting EBFM steps to maintain resilient ecosystems](EDAB_images/EBFMprinciples.png)
---
# More concrete EBFM--two examples

- Evolving ecosystem approach in the Mid-Atlantic
  *"Can we integrate ecosystem considerations into operational fishery management?"*
    - Why? 
    - How? Needs to be practical!
    - What has been done so far?
    
- New England Atlantic herring: fishery management strategy evaluation  
  *"Which harvest control rules best consider herring's role as forage?"*  
    - Balancing fishing benefits and ecological services
    - Diverse stakeholder interests
    - Needed timely answers!

---
## An integrated ecosystem assessment success story (in progress)

Diverse stakeholders agreed that an ecosystem approach was necessary. Developing and implementing an ecosystem approach to fishery management was done in collaboration between managers, stakeholders, and scientists. 
.pull-left[
*Outline*
- Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council Ecosystem Approach (EAFM)

- Tailoring ecosystem reporting for fishery managers

- Mid-Atlantic EAFM risk assessment

- Mid-Atlantic EAFM conceptual modeling (towards strategy evaluation)

]
.pull-right[
*Integrated Ecosystem Assessment*

![IEA process from goal setting to assessment to strategy evaluation with feedbacks](EDAB_images/iea-loop.png)

.image-cap[
https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]
]

???
---
## Fishery management in the US

Eight regional Fishery Management Councils establish plans for sustainable management of stocks within their jurisdictions. All are governed by the same law, but tailor management to their regional stakeholder needs.

![US map highlighting regions for each fishery management council](EDAB_images/USCouncils.png)

More information: http://www.fisherycouncils.org/
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/topic/laws-policies#magnuson-stevens-act

---
## The Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council (MAFMC)

.pull-left-30[
![US East Coast map highlighting Mid-Atlantic council jurisdiction](EDAB_images/MACouncil.png)
]
.pull-right-70[
![MAFMC fishery management plans and species](EDAB_images/MAFMPs2.png)
]
Source: http://www.mafmc.org/fishery-management-plans
---
## Why an ecosystem approach?

*"We rebuilt all the stocks, so why is everyone still pissed off?" --Rich Seagraves*

in 2011, the Council asked:

.pull-left[
![visioning project goals and objectives](EDAB_images/MA_Visioning1.png)
]
.pull-right[
![visioning project responses and port meetings](EDAB_images/MA_Visioning2.png)
]

And many people answered, from commercial fishery, recreational fishery, environmental organization, and interested public perspectives.

Visioning report:

http://www.mafmc.org/s/MAFMC-stakeholder-input-report-p7b9.pdf

---
## Common themes among all stakeholder groups:

>• There is a lack of confidence in the data that drive fishery management decisions.
>
>• Stakeholders are not as involved in the Council process as they can and should be.
>
>• Different jurisdictions and regulations among the many fishery management organizations result in complexity and inconsistency.
>
>• There is a need for increased transparency and communications in fisheries management.
>
>• The dynamics of the ecosystem and food web should be considered to a greater extent in fisheries management decisions.
>
>• Stakeholders are not adequately represented on the Council.
>
>• Pollution is negatively affecting the health of fish stocks.

Visioning report, p. 3:

http://www.mafmc.org/s/MAFMC-stakeholder-input-report-p7b9.pdf

---
## How did MAFMC develop their ecosystem approach?

Visioning Project &rarr; Strategic Plan with one objective to develop 
>"A non-regulatory umbrella document intended to guide Council policy with respect to ecosystem considerations across existing Fishery Management Plans"

.center[
![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM development with full details in speaker notes, 80%](EDAB_images/MAapproach.png)
]

Details, including workshop presentations and white papers:
http://www.mafmc.org/eafm

???
The Mid-Atlantic Council identified several theme areas from the visioning project as noted in the left panel of the workflow graphic: forage fish, species interactions, social and economic issues, climate and habitat. The Council held full day workshops during Council meetings where experts on the topics provided overviews and Council members asked questions and discussed the issues. Workships on Forage fish, Climate, Climate and Governance, Interactions (species and fleet), and Habitat were held between 2013 and 2015, resulting in white papers on Forage fish, Climate (and habitat), Interactions (species, fleet, climate, and habitat). Social and economic considerations were integrated in each workshop rather than looked at separately.
---
## Mid-Atlantic Council Ecosystem Approach

* 2016 Ecosystem Approach to Fishery Management (EAFM) Policy Guidance document:
http://www.mafmc.org/s/EAFM-Doc-Revised-2019-02-08.pdf

* Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework1:
.center[
![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework with full details in speaker notes, 70%](EDAB_images/Framework.png)
]
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full

.footnote[
[1] Gaichas, S., Seagraves, R., Coakley, J., DePiper, G., Guida, V., Hare, J., Rago, P., et al. 2016. A Framework for Incorporating Species, Fleet, Habitat, and Climate Interactions into Fishery Management. Frontiers in Marine Science, 3.
]

???
The Council’s EAFM framework has similarities to the IEA loop on slide 2. It uses risk assessment as a first step to prioritize combinations of managed species, fleets, and ecosystem interactions for consideration. Second, a conceptual model is developed identifying key environmental, ecological, social, economic, and management linkages for a high-priority fishery. Third, quantitative modeling addressing Council-specified questions and based on interactions identified in the conceptual model is applied to evaluate alternative management strategies that best balance management objectives. As strategies are implemented, outcomes are monitored and the process is adjusted, and/or another priority identified in risk assessment can be addressed. 
---
## Examples illustrating the use of the framework
.pull-left-40[
![Example risk assessment table with species in rows and risk elements in columns with green cells indicating low risks, yellow and orange cells indicating moderate risks, and red cells indicatig high risk](EDAB_images/fmars-03-00105-g010.jpg)

]

.pull-right-60[

Risk assessment highlights prority species/issues for more detailed evaluation

A conceptual model maps out key interactions for high risk fisheries, specifies quantitative management strategy evaluation

]

.right[
![:img example conceptual model with details in speaker notes, 78%](EDAB_images/fmars-03-00105-g011.jpg)
]

???
Quoted from [Gaichas et al 2016](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full)
For this example, the [existing Mid Atlantic food web model](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/conceptual-models.html) is used to define key species interactions for each managed species, habitat expertise is needed to link habitats to species, physical oceanographic and climate expertise is needed to link key climate drivers to habitats, and the expertise of fishermen, economists and other social scientists, and fishery managers is needed to link fish with fisheries and objectives for human well-being. The key link between fisheries and human well being objectives is identified as the system of regulatory allocations of total allowable catch between states along the Mid Atlantic coast. The interaction between this allocation system (based on historical catch) and climate-driven distribution shifts of the managed species has created considerable difficulty in this region. This conceptual model clearly connects climate considerations to management, as well as habitat considerations of concern to the Council but outside Council jurisdiction (water quality in coastal estuaries).

---
## Why risk assessment?

Common framework across industry, science, business; but methods matter. Assessing the risks correctly is essential to good decision making.

.center[
![:img cartoon showing lightning strike conditional risk and incorrect calculation, 70%](EDAB_images/conditional_risk.png)
]
https://xkcd.com/795/

---
## Mid-Atlantic Council risk assessment framework

Clarify exactly what we are assessing and why

* *What are we measuring?* &rarr; **Risk Element** 
  * *Why are we measuring it?* &rarr; **Risk Definition**
  * *How are we measuring it?* &rarr; **Indicator**
  * *What is the risk?* &rarr; **Risk Ranking Criteria**
  
Iterative process starting with the Council workshops

* Council staff and scientists create examples based on Council input
  
  &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; &uarr; &darr; ...
                                                      
  * Council discusses, clarifies, revises with public input

Risk assessment paper1: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/full

.footnote[
[1] Gaichas, S. K., DePiper, G. S., Seagraves, R. J., Muffley, B. W., Sabo, M., Colburn, L. L., and Loftus, A. L. 2018. Implementing Ecosystem Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US Mid-Atlantic. Frontiers in Marine Science, 5.
]

---
## Council-defined risk elements: Ecological

<table class="table table-striped table-condensed" style="font-size: 12px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Element </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Indicators </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="11"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Ecological</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Assessment performance </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to analytical limitations </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Current assessment method/data quality </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> F status </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to overfishing </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Current F relative to reference F from assessment </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> B status </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to depleted stock </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Current B relative to reference B from assessment </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Food web (MAFMC Predator) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to MAFMC managed species interactions </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diet composition, management measures </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Food web (MAFMC Prey) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to MAFMC managed species interactions </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diet composition, management measures </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Food web (Protected Species Prey) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving protected species objectives due to species interactions </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diet composition, management measures </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Ecosystem productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to changing system productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Four indicators, see text </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Climate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to climate vulnerability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Northeast Climate Vulnerability Assessment </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Distribution shifts </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to climate-driven distribution shifts </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Northeast Climate Vulnerability Assessment + 2 indicators </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Estuarine habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to threats to estuarine/nursery habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Enumerated threats + estuarine dependence </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Offshore habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to changing offshore habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Integrated habitat model index </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## Risk elements: Economic, Social, and Food Production
<table class="table table-striped table-condensed" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Element </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Indicators </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="4"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Economic</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial Revenue </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not maximizing fishery value </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreational Angler Days/Trips </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not maximizing fishery value </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Numbers of anglers and trips in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial Fishery Resilience (Revenue Diversity) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced fishery business resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Species diversity of revenue </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial Fishery Resilience (Shoreside Support) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced fishery business resilience due to shoreside support infrastructure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of shoreside support businesses </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="2"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Social</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Fleet Resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced fishery resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of fleets, fleet diversity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Social-Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of reduced community resilience </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Community vulnerability, fishery engagement and reliance </td>
 </tr>
 <tr grouplength="2"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Food Production</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Commercial </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not optimizing seafood production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Seafood landings in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Recreational </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not maintaining personal food production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Recreational landings in aggregate </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## Risk elements: Management
<table class="table table-striped table-condensed" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Element </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Definition </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Indicators </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr grouplength="6"><td colspan="3" style="border-bottom: 1px solid;">Management</td></tr>
<tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Control </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to inadequate control </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Catch compared to allocation </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Interactions </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to interactions with species managed by other entities </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number and type of interactions with protected or non-MAFMC managed species, co-management </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Other ocean uses </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to other human uses </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Fishery overlap with energy/mining areas </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Regulatory complexity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving compliance due to complexity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of regulations by species </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Discards </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not minimizing bycatch to extent practicable </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Standardized Bycatch Reporting </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left; padding-left: 2em;" indentlevel="1"> Allocation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Risk of not achieving OY due to spatial mismatch of stocks and management </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Distribution shifts + number of interests </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
background-image: url("EDAB_images/IMG_2246.jpg")
background-size: cover
## <center>But where will the risk assessment indicators come from?</center>

---

## Meanwhile, scientists were improving ecosystem reports:

*"So what?" --John Boreman, September 2016*

1. Clear linkage of ecosystem indicators with management objectives

1. Synthesis across indicators for big picture

1. Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report

1. Short (< 30 pages), non-technical (but rigorous) text

1. Emphasis on reproducibility 
.center[
![:img scaled down conceptual model detailed in speaker notes, 60%](EDAB_images/nes-components-abstracted.png)
]
???
State of the ecosystem reports were revised to emphasize linkages between management objectives, local social systems, human activities, marine habitat, the environment, and the marine ecological community.

---
## Revised ecosystem status reporting
.pull-left[

### Report structure
0. Synthetic overview

1. Human dimensions

2. Protected species

3. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)

4. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
]

.pull-right[
.table[
<table class="table" style="width: 50; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Ecosystem-scale objectives and indicators on the Northeast US shelf</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings by feeding guild </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue by feeding guild </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of anglers and trips; recreational catch </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and species) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Commercial and recreational reliance </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]
---
## Standardized indicator visualization in reports

Status (short-term) and trend (long-term) of components are measured as **indicators** and plotted in a standardized way

Indicators are selected to

1. Be broadly informative about a component in a management context1-3

1. Minimize redundancy of information

1. Be responsive to ecosystem change

.center[
![plot in standard reporting format described in speaker notes](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/doc-orientation-1.png)
]
.footnote[
[1] Rice J. C.Rochet M. J. "A framework for selecting a suite of indicators for fisheries management." ICES Journal of Marine Science 62 (2005): 516–527. 
[2] Link J. 2010. Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management: Confronting Tradeoffs . Cambridge University Press, New York. 
[3] Zador, Stephani G., et al. "Ecosystem considerations in Alaska: the value of qualitative assessments." ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.1 (2017): 421-430.
]
???
The figure format is illustrated here. Trend lines are shown when slope is significantly different from 0 at the p < 0.05 level. An orange line signifies an overall positive trend, and purple signifies a negative trend. To minimize bias introduced by small sample size, no trend is fit for < 30 year time series. Dashed lines represent mean values of time series unless the indicator is an anomaly, in which case the dashed line is equal to 0. Shaded regions indicate the past ten years. If there are no new data for the most recent year, the shaded region will still cover this time period. 
---
## Indicator spatial scales--already Mid-Atlantic specific

.center[
![:img map of Northeast US ecosystem production units, 70%](EDAB_images/SOE_Map.jpg)
]
.footnote[
https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc/epu.html
]

???
Indicators

---
## Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: Commercial revenue

This element is applied at the ecosystem level. Revenue serves as a proxy for commercial profits.

.table[
.pull-left[

| Risk Level | Definition | 
|:-------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Low | No trend and low variability in revenue |
| Low-Moderate | Increasing or high variability in revenue |
| Moderate-High | Significant long term revenue decrease |
| High | Significant recent decrease in revenue |
]
]
.pull-right[
![](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/total-rev-1.png)

![](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/bennet-1.png)

]

Ranked moderate-high risk due to the significant long term revenue decrease for Mid-Atlantic managed species (red points in top plot)

---
## Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: System productivity

This element is applied at the ecosystem level, and ranks the risk of not achieving optimum yield due to changes in ecosystem productivity at the base of the food web.

Four indicators are used together to assess risk of changing ecosystem productivity: primary production, zooplankton abundance, fish condition and fish recruitment.

.table[

| Risk Level         | Definition                                                          |  
|:-------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Low  | No trends in ecosystem productivity |
| Low-Moderate | Trend in ecosystem productivity (1-2 measures, increase or decrease) |
| Moderate-High | Trend in ecosystem productivity (3+ measures, increase or decrease) |
| High | Decreasing trend in ecosystem productivity, all measures |
]
???
We examine trends in total primary production, zooplankton abundance for a key Mid-Atlantic species, and two aggregate fish productivity measures: condition factor (weight divided by length of individual fish) and a survey based "recruitment" (small fish to large fish) index.

---
## Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: System productivity
.pull-left[
![](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/pp-trends-1.png)

.center[
![fish condition 1992 to 2018 where dark is good condition and light is poor](EDAB_images/MAFMC_Fish_Condition_2019.jpg)
]
]

.pull-right[
![](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/seasonal-zoo-1.png)

![](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/fish-prod -1.png)
]

Ranked low-moderate risk due to the significant long term trends in zooplankton abundance for major species (top right plot)

---
## Risk assessent indicators and ranking criteria: Climate

This element is applied at the species level. Risks to species productivity (and therefore to achieving optimum yield) due to projected climate change in the Northeast US were evaluated in a comprehensive assessment1.

.table[
.pull-left[

| Risk Level         | Definition                                                          |  
|:-------------------|:--------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Low  | Low climate vulnerability ranking |
| Low-Moderate | Moderate climate vulnerability ranking |
| Moderate-High | High climate vulnerability ranking |
| High | Very high climate vulnerability ranking |
]
]
.pull-right[
![:img climate vulnerability levels for all Northeast US marine species, 100%](EDAB_images/journal.pone.0146756.g003.PNG)
]
.footnote[
[1] Hare, J. A., Morrison, W. E., Nelson, M. W., Stachura, M. M., Teeters, E. J., Griffis, R. B., Alexander, M. A., et al. 2016. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf. PLOS ONE, 11: e0146756. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0146756.
]

Each species ranked according to position/color in the plot on the right

---
## Risk assessment results: *Species and sector level elements1*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> MgtControl </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> TecInteract </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> OceanUse </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RegComplex </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Discards </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Allocation </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-R </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish-C </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

???

---
## Risk assessment results updated with 2019 indicators
*Species level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Species </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Assess </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Fstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Bstatus </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Pred </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW1Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FW2Prey </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Climate </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> DistShift </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EstHabitat </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Ocean Quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Surfclam </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Scup </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Black sea bass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atl. mackerel </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Butterfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Longfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Golden tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Blueline tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Bluefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Monkfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Unmanaged forage </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Deepsea corals </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> na </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

*Ecosystem level risk elements*
<table class="risktable table" style="font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> System </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> EcoProd </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> CommRev </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecVal </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes1 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FishRes4 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> FleetDiv </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Social </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> ComFood </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> RecFood </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Mid-Atlantic </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> lowmod </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> highest </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> modhigh </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
## How is MAFMC using the risk assessment? What's next?
.pull-left[
* Based on risk assessment, the Council selected summer flounder as high-risk fishery for conceptual modeling

![:img Mid-Atlantic EAFM framework, 95%](EDAB_images/Framework.png)
]
.pull-right[
* Working group of habitat, biology, stock assessment, management, economic and social scientists developed:

* draft conceptual models of high risk elements, linkages
  * dataset identification and gap analysis for each element and link
  * draft questions that the Council could persue with additional work
]  
* Final conceptual model and supporting information at December 2019 Council meeting

* Council to proceed with management strategy evaluation (MSE) using the information from conceptual modeling as a basis. Topic: addressing recreational fishery discards with EAFM

---
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???
In this interactive circular graph visualization, model elements identified as important by the Council (through risk assessment) and by the working group (through a range of experience and expertise) are at the perimeter of the circle. Elements are defined in detail in the last section of [this page](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_riskfactors_subplots.html). Relationships between elements are represented as links across the center of the circle to other elements on the perimeter. Links from a model element that affect another element start wide at the base and are color coded to match the category of the element they affect.Hover over a perimeter section (an element) to see all relationships for that element, including links from other elements. Hover over a link to see what it connects. Links by default show text for the two elements and the direction of the relationship (1 for relationship, 0 for no relationship--most links are one direction).For example, hovering over the element "Total Landings" in the full model shows that the working group identified the elements affected by landings as Seafood Production, Recreational Value, and Commercial Profits (three links leading out from landings), and the elements affecting landings as Fluke SSB, Fluke Distributional Shift, Risk Buffering, Management Control, Total Discards, and Shoreside Support (6 links leading into Total Landings).

---
## EBFM example 1 conclusions

Integrated ecosystem assessment is a valuable framework for the general implementation of ecosystem approaches to natural resource management

* The Council’s rapid progress in implementing EAFM resulted from positive collaboration between managers, stakeholders, and scientists. Collaboration is essential to IEA and to the success of EAFM.

* Ecosystem indicators and reporting can be tailored to specific regional objectives.

* Risk assessment is a rapid, familiar, scaleable, and transparent method to move forward with EAFM within a real-world operational fishery management context.

* This EAFM process highlights certain species and certain management issues as posing higher cumulative risks to meeting Council-derived management objectives when considering a broad range of ecological, social, and economic factors.

* Conceptual modeling links the key factors for high risk fisheries and scopes more detailed integrated analysis and management strategy evaluation.

???
The Council foresees refining the process so that ecosystem indicators monitor risks to achieving ecological, social, and economic fishery objectives, which can then be mitigated through management action.

---
## Are any Atlantic herring harvest control rules good for both fisheries and predators?
<img src="EDAB_images/allcomponents.png" width="1701" />

---
## What is Management Strategy Evaluation?
<img src="EDAB_images/MSECSIRO.png" width="2000" />

---
## The Dream and The Reality
<img src="EDAB_images/MgtProcess.png" width="1824" />

---
## Design: link models matching stakeholder-identified objectives

---
## Predators
<img src="EDAB_images/herrtopreds.png" width="1848" />

---
## Seabird stock assessment?
.pull-left[
![ternsr](EDAB_images/ternSR.png)
]
.pull-right[
![ternprodbyprey](EDAB_images/ternprodbyprey.png)
]

- Colony adult and fledgling count data used to develop population model
- Chick diet observations examined in relation to fledgling success

---
## Terns and herring--developing a modeled relationship
.pull-left[
![ternprodisland](EDAB_images/ternprodbyisland.png)
]
.pull-right[
![ternherringmod](EDAB_images/ternherringmodel.png)
]

Although there were no clear significant relationships of common tern productivity and the proportion of herring in diets across all colonies, there were some correlations between herring total biomass and tern productivity.

Hence, the relationship on the right was developed to relate herring biomass to common tern productivity.
---
## Testing the model--does it work?
![ternpoptrend](EDAB_images/ternpoptrend.png)
---
## Predator results summary
<img src="EDAB_images/herrtopreds_results.png" width="1833" />

Three control rule types--Constant catch, conditional constant catch, and 15% restriction on change--were rejected at the second stakeholder meeting for poor fishery and predator performance.

---
## Managing tradeoffs: What control rules give us 90% of everything we want?

- Tern productivity at 1.0 or above more than 90% of the time
- Herring biomass more than 90% of SSBmsy
- Fishery yield more than 90% of MSY
&nbsp;  
&nbsp;  
- AND fishery closures (F=0) less than 1% of the time (second plot).

.pull-left[
![](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png)
]

.pull-right[
![](20200226_EBFM_MREP_Gaichas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png)
]

---
## EBFM example 2 conclusions: testing strategies is key
.pull-left-30[
Complex food web, generalist predators
- Herring is one of several important prey
- Assessing multiple prey together will likely show stronger effects on predator productivity
]
.pull-right-70[
![NEUSfw](EDAB_images/LinkNEUSfoodweb.png)
]
- Tern/Tuna/Groundfish/Mammal productivity is also affected by predators, weather, and other factors not modeled here
- Even relatively weak relationships still showed which herring control rules were poor
- Managers did select a harvest control rule considering a wide range of factors!

---
## If you want **all** the details

* [Mid-Atlantic Council EAFM paper](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2016.00105/full)

* [Mid-Atlantic Council Risk Assessment paper](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/full#h11)

* [Mid-Atlantic Council Summer Flounder conceptual model and support tables](https://gdepiper.github.io/Summer_Flounder_Conceptual_Models/sfconsmod_riskfactors_subplots.html)

* [2019 Mid-Atlantic State of the Ecosystem report](http://www.mafmc.org/s/SOE-MAFMC-2019.pdf)

* [State of the Ecosystem Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-doc)

* [New England Atlantic herring management](https://www.nefmc.org/management-plans/herring)

* [New England herring MSE stakeholder process paper](https://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0125#.XTb_v5NKgWo)

* [New England herring MSE modeling paper](https://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0128#.XTb_c5NKgWo)

* Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations

---
## Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic Ecosystem reports made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 institutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) 
Amani Bassyouni (Virginia Department of Health) 
Lisa Calvo (Rutgers) 
Matthew Camisa (MA Division of Marine Fisheries) 
Patricia Clay 
Lisa Colburn 
Geret DePiper 
Deb Duarte 
Michael Fogarty 
Paula Fratantoni 
Kevin Friedland 
Sarah Gaichas 
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
Heather Haas 
Sean Hardison 
Kimberly Hyde 
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) 
John Kosik 
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society) 
Scott Large
]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society) 
Loren Kellogg 
David Kulis (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) 
Sean Lucey 
Chris Melrose 
Ryan Morse 
Kimberly Murray 
Chris Orphanides 
Richard Pace 
Charles Perretti 
Karl Roscher (Maryland Department of Natural Resources) 
Vincent Saba 
Laurel Smith 
Mark Terceiro 
John Walden 
Harvey Walsh 
Mark Wuenschel 
Qian Zhang (Unversity of Maryland and US EPA Chesapeake Bay Program)
]
]

.center[
![:img NOAA Fisheries IEA logo, 50%](EDAB_images/noaa-iea.png)
]
---
class: inverse
background-image: url("EDAB_images/IMG_2809.jpg")
background-size: cover

## Questions? Thank you!

&nbsp;

.pull-left[
Contacts:  
]
.pull-right[
sarah.gaichas@noaa.gov  
]