class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide # Scientist Exchange (2019): ## A collaborative U.S.- IMR research project ### Sarah Gaichas, Isaac Kaplan, Patrick Lynch, and Christine Stawitz <br /> Northeast and Northwest Fisheries Science Centers, <br /> and Office of Science & Technology <br /> <br /> <br />Supported by REDUS project, IMR, and NOAA NMFS International Fellowship --- class: top, left # Scientist Exchange .pull-left[ - High priority for all! - U.S.- Norway Bilateral Science Agreement - IMR REDUS project - 2017: Hansen (IMR) to NOAA NWFSC, Seattle - Funding for 2019 exchange: - NOAA internal "international fellowship" funding opportunity - leveraged funds from REDUS ] .pull-right[  *¹* ] .footnote[ [1] https://www.meganstarr.com/30-things-you-should-know-before-moving-to-norway/ ] --- ## This project: Fragile ecosystems, robust assessments? Performance testing stock assessments for the California Current and Nordic and Barents Seas under climate change - NOAA funds cover 45-50 days accommodation and per diem for 3 visiting scientists: - Gaichas, April 15 - June 15 - Lynch, April 18 - June 7 - Kaplan, May 11 - June 21 - REDUS funds cover airfare for visiting scientists; IMR providing offices, network access, etc. - additional NMFS and IMR collaborators to leverage diverse skills and experiences - Christine Stawitz, visiting IMR May 19-25 - Cecile Hansen, Daniel Howell, Erik Olsen, and many others on the REDUS team. --- # Project motivation .pull-left[ - Changing climate and ocean conditions --> Shifting distributions, changing productivity - Needs: - Improve our ability to project global change impacts in the California Current and Nordic/Barents Seas (and elsewhere) - Test the performance of stock assessments to these impacts ] .pull-right[ *Climate-Ready Management¹*  ] .footnote[ [1] Karp, Melissa A. et al. 2019. Accounting for shifting distributionsand changing productivity in the development of scientific advice for fishery management. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz048. ] ??? --- ## End-to-end ecosystem operating models * Barents Sea^1-2 * California Current^3-4 <img src="EDAB_images/atlantismods.png" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> * Building on previous global change projections ^5-6 .footnote[ [1] Hansen et al 2016 [2] Hansen et al 2018 [3] Marshall et al. 2017 [4] Kaplan et al. 2017 [5] Hodgson et al. 2018 [6] Olsen et al. 2018 ] ??? --- ## End-to-end ecosystem operating models .pull-left[ 1. Scenarios for effects of temperature on growth, recruitment (future: spatial distribution, changing interactions) 1. Focus on key assessed stocks (e.g. petrale sole, Pacific hake) 1. Pass output to dataset generator -> Stock Synthesis assessment 1. Also dataset generator -> multispecies, other single species models 1. Compare performance of different model settings, multiple models, model ensembles ] .pull-right[ <img src="EDAB_images/q_surverr_MEF.png" width="1600" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] ??? --- ## Could test both estimation and MSE capability <img src="EDAB_images/PoseidonDesign.png" width="1709" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## What can we do so far? Example results: .pull-left[ Survey census test NOBA <img src="EDAB_images/NOBAcensus.png" width="1792" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .pull-right[ Standard survey test CCA <img src="EDAB_images/CCsurveyex.png" width="1792" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- ## External Resources * [Atlantis Model Documentation](https://github.com/Atlantis-Ecosystem-Model/Atlantis_example_and_instructions) * [atlantisom R package](https://github.com/r4atlantis/atlantisom) * [dataset generation](https://github.com/sgaichas/poseidon-dev) * [True Biomass Comparisons](https://sgaichas.github.io/poseidon-dev/TrueBioTest.html) * [Standard Surveys](https://sgaichas.github.io/poseidon-dev/StandardSurveyTest.html) * [Age Comps in progress](https://sgaichas.github.io/poseidon-dev/TrueLengthAgeCompTest.html) * Slides available at https://noaa-edab.github.io/presentations --- ## Questions? # Tusen Takk til Havforskningsinstituttet! Vi gleder oss til en produktiv tid her.