Scientist Exchange
High priority for all!
- U.S.- Norway Bilateral Science Agreement
- IMR REDUS project
2017: Hansen (IMR) to NOAA NWFSC, Seattle
Funding for 2019 exchange:
- NOAA internal "international fellowship" funding opportunity
- leveraged funds from REDUS
1
Project motivation
Changing climate and ocean conditions --> Shifting distributions, changing productivity
Needs:
- Improve our ability to project global change impacts in the California Current and Nordic/Barents Seas (and elsewhere)
- Test the performance of stock assessments to these impacts
Climate-Ready Management1
[1] Karp, Melissa A. et al. 2019. Accounting for shifting distributionsand changing productivity in the development of scientific advice for fishery management. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz048.
End-to-end ecosystem operating models
- Barents Sea1-2
- California Current3-4
- Building on previous global change projections 5-6
[1] Hansen et al 2016 [2] Hansen et al 2018
[3] Marshall et al. 2017 [4] Kaplan et al. 2017
[5] Hodgson et al. 2018 [6] Olsen et al. 2018
End-to-end ecosystem operating models
Scenarios for effects of temperature on growth, recruitment (future: spatial distribution, changing interactions)
Focus on key assessed stocks (e.g. petrale sole, Pacific hake)
Pass output to dataset generator -> Stock Synthesis assessment
Also dataset generator -> multispecies, other single species models
Compare performance of different model settings, multiple models, model ensembles
Could test both estimation and MSE capability
What can we do so far?
Example results:
Survey census test NOBA
Standard survey test CCA
