In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model

Indicators

• Feeding guilds assigned based on NEFSC food habits data base

  • Food habits change with age and size, so guilds assigned based on most common size class

• Simplified from existing guild structures^1,2

Because we focus on ecosystem context, we've aggregated species in most of our indicators up to the level of feeding guild, shown here.

These feeding guilds were derived from NEFSC food habits data and existing guilds identified in the literature

The purpose of this report is to synthesize available information relevant to fishery management in the Mid-Atlantic portion of the US Northeast Shelf. This 2019 report highlights where management interventions have proven successful to achieve ecological objectives, but also characterizes the considerable challenges for management posed by climate change and increasing trade-offs across conservation, fishing, and other human activities in this region. Finally, we describe combinations of ecological signals that present opportunities for further integrated research and possibly creative management solutions.

First indicator I'd like to talk about is a new water quality for Chesapeake Bay, which many resource species use as nursery habitat or are dependent upon (e.g. bluefish, striped bass, menhaden, black sea bass)

These data, which were provided by collaborators at the Chesapeake Bay Program, represent the percent of tidal waters in Chesapeake Bay meeting water quality standards for chlorophyll a, submerged aquatic vegetation, and dissolved oxygen. The increase in water quality for the Bay has been tied to management action limiting nutrient influx into the watershed, and improvments in dissolved oxygen and water clarity.

The maps here show density estimates of the widely distributed harbor porpoise in the spring and fall months, as estimated by the Atlantic Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species.

The red line in the time series plot shows the potential biological removal. Above this line removals from the population will prevent the stock from reaching a stable population size.

2016 and 2017 estimates for bycacth are among the lowest values in the series, suggest that management actions have been effective in reducing harbor porpoise bycatch.

Plot shows the ratio of stock mortality (F) to stock mortality at maximum sustainable yield, where a number larger than one indicates the stock is experiencing unsustainable fishing pressure. On the x axis we have the ratio of estimated stock biomass to biomass at maximum sustainable yield.

Similar to NE, there's been a slight increase in recreational catch since the 90s in the Mid-Atlantic, along with a general increase in effort.

However, different from NE, there are significant downward trends in fleet effort diversity and diversity of catch. While a decline in fleet effort diversity is due to fewer party boats, we can't be sure why there's been a decline in diversity of catch, as South Atlantic FMC species are not tracked seperately.

Virginia continues to lead the country in oyster production, with aquaculture in the region growing quickly. The time series looks flat compared to Virginia, but oyster aquaculture in New Jersey is also growing.

The North Atlantic right whale is among the most endangered whales in the world, with less than 450 individuals remaining and declining abundance trends. Evidence suggests that interactions with fisheries are contributing to the decline of the fisheries. Between 2017 and 2018, there were 20 known right whale mortality events, and more than half of these were the direct result of entanglement or vessel strike. Right whale distributions may also be changing with climate related distribution shifts of their main food source, Calanus finmarchicus.

SST Figure on left shows estimated time series of SST extending back to to 1850s. *7 out of 10 of the hottest years have been in the past decade

GSI The figure on the right shows that deviation from the mean latitude of the north wall of the gulf stream, showing anomalously high value for the past 5 years

These things are important for managers to know about because they directly influence stock distribution dynamics

The same is true for the Mid-Atlantic Bight

As I noted earlier, some species in the Mid-Atlantic could actually see range expansions due to warming ocean temperatures, including croaker and striped bass.

Traditional fisheries management is based around stable species distributions, but those distributions aren't static, and especially not in the context of changing ecosystem conditions

The NEFSC has run a bottom trawl survey since the early 1960s, and these figures highlight how distributions of managed species within feeding guilds have changed.

The decline in NEFMC species in the mid survey is driven mostly by ocean pout, which has seen proportional declines in the gulf of maine and georges bank survey

.footnote[ https://seanhardison.shinyapps.io/surv_app/

For the Mid, we show offshore bottom trawl survey data paired with inshore bottom trawl data collected in the region by Northeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program.

There appear to be opposing trends in spring piscivore biomass between the two surveys, which could reflect higher prevalence of spiny dogfish offshore

We didn't include the data in this presentation, but we also recieved inshore survey data from the Maine/New Hampshire survey and Mass state survey, and we hope to take a deeper look over the next SOE cycle

• Driven by warmer temperatures and increased bacterial remineralization and nutrient recycling
• Increasing primary production likely due to higher productivity of smaller phytoplankton

To assess the size structure of copepods in the region, we use the small-large index.

• A measure of relative size composition of the dominant copepod taxa
• A lower value means higher abundance of large copepods (Calanus)
• Primary production may play a role in copepod size dynamics*

Looking at condition in aggregate across all managed stocks, we can see a clear decline in condition between 2000-2010

Recent improvement within past decade

Interestingly, the drop-off in condition around 2000 resembles a shift in zooplankton size-structure on the shelf, and this is a topic for future research

In the Mid, there seems to be a decline in productivity in recent years, due to changes in recruitment and survival.

In the past 5 years, strong productivity years for witch flounder, silver hake, and winter flounder have driven increases

This workflows also ensures that there's no information lost between SOE cycles. We know exactly how a data set was analyzed and handled so that the data can be updated for next year's reports.

Regional currents are major influencers of ocean temperatures in the NW Atlantic

The Gulf Stream is a reliable indicator of bottom water temps

An offshoot of the gulf stream is the warm slope water, which makes its way into gulf of maine through the northeast channel

Over the past few years, we've seen a strong departure of the gulf stream north wall from it's mean latitude

With that comes a larger percentage of warm slope water entering into gulf of maine through the NE channel

• Common tern breeding colonies are monitored in the southern GOM
• Common tern sensitive to vertical distribution of prey