State of the Ecosystem:

class: right, middle, my-title, title-slide

# State of the Ecosystem:
## Reporting on Northeast Continental Shelf ecosystem status and trends.
### Sean Hardison Ecosystem Dynamics and Assessment Integrated Statistics and Northeast Fisheries Science Center

---

class: top, left

# Today's seminar

.pull-left[

- Ecosystem Reporting and why it matters

- Functional role of ecosystem reporting in the Northeast US

- Report structure

- Results from the 2019 Mid-Atlantic and New England reports

- Strategies for open-source reporting
]

.pull-right[
*The IEA Loop1*
![iea-loop](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/iea-loop.png)

]

.footnote[
[1] https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/national/IEA-approach
]

???

---

## Ecosystem-Based Management

.pull-left[
* Place-based management of all human ecosystem uses, or **sectors**1

* "Cross-sectoral" 
  
  * Scale of "place" defined by scale of impacts

]

.pull-right[

]

.footnote[
[1] Agardy, Tundi, et al. "Taking steps toward marine and coastal ecosystem-based management: An introductory guide." (2011).

[2] Patrick, Wesley S., and Jason S. Link. "Myths that continue to impede progress in ecosystem-based fisheries management." Fisheries 40.4 (2015): 155-160.
]

## Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management

* Integrated management of a **single-sector** (i.e. fisheries)
* Considers trade-offs of management strategies on ecosystem components2

???
Under EBM, the idea is that these "sectors" must be managed in an integrated fashion, where impacts of each sector on the ecosystem can be assessed and managed with respect to objectives

Ecosystem-based fishery management, or EBFM, is integrated management of a single sector, that is, fisheries.

EBFM considers trade-offs of management strategies on ecosystem components, within the fisheries sector

---
## Ecosystem Components

![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/nes-components.png)

???
Here we describe the relationships between major ecosystem components on the northeast shelft

---
# Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA)

**A framework for synthesis and analysis of natural, social, and economic factors that are relevant to established ecosystem management objectives1**

.pull-right[
.footnote[
[1] Levin, Phillip S., et al. "Integrated ecosystem assessments: developing the scientific basis for ecosystem-based management of the ocean." PLoS biology 7.1 (2009): e1000014.

]
]
--

![iea-loop-explanations](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/iea-loop-explanation.png)
*The IEA Loop*

???
Before jumping in I'm going to start with some definitions of terms that you'll be hearing a lot of. The first is Integrated Ecosystem Assessmentor (IEA).

IEA is defined as a framework for the synthesis and analysis of relevant natural, social, and economic factors that are relevant to established management objectives.

IEA has been embraced on a nationwide scale by NOAA fisheries, and is a method for moving towards Ecosystem-Based Management for natural resources.

It's an iterative process, hence, "the loop", and starts with the establishment of management goals by fishery management councils.

Once objectives are defined, we develop indicators that allow us to quantify and report on the status and trends of ecosystem processes.

Next we work with management bodies to identify sources of risk in ecosystems that threaten the achievement of management goals, and then we use modeling techniques to evaluate how certain management strategies could propagate through the system.

Today I'm going to be talking to you about the ecosystem reporting phase of this process.

---

## Ecosystem Status Reporting (ESR)

Ecosystem reporting provides a route for ecosystem information to enter the stock assessment process

* Well-developed example is AFSC; whose ESRs have long served as context for North Pacific FMC quota 
deliberations1

All IEA regions in the US develop similar documents in varying guises

.footnote[
[1] Zador, Stephani G., et al. "Ecosystem considerations in Alaska: the value of qualitative assessments." ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.1 (2017): 421-430.
]

.pull-left[
*IEA Regions*
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/iea-regions.png" width="100%" />

]

.pull-right[
*Ecosystem Status Reports*
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/esr-breakdown.png" width="100%" />
]

???

---

## Goals of ESR:

* Identify changes in ecosystem component status (short-term) and trend (long-term)

* Identify potential for changes to affect management concerns

* Highlight "red flags" and potential ecosystem state changes

![SOE-Network-Diagram](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/SOE_Network_Diagram.png)

???
This network diagram provides an example of how primary production and environmental drivers are linked to a pelagic fishery and protected species.

With ESRs, we want to describe these linkages and explain why they're important to managers.

Nested within the pelagic fishery node in this diagram are the societal benefits derived from that fishery, linking social and economic ecosystem components to the base of the food web and environment.

---

## ESRs in the Northeast US: Relevance to management

**Why should managers care about an ecosystem perspective to resource management?**

Well-informed management decisions rely upon knowledge of the ecosystem being managed

An ecosystem perspective is important for managing in the face of rapid, unprecedented ecosystem changes

.pull-left[

![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/long-term sst-1.png)
*NE Shelf Long-term SST*
]

.pull-right[
![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/GSI-1.png)
*Gulf Stream Index*
]

???
SST
Figure on left shows estimated time series of SST extending back to to 1850s. 
*7 out of 10 of the hottest years have been in the past decade

GSI
The figure on the right shows that deviation from the mean latitude of the north wall of the gulf stream, showing anomalously high value for the past 5 years

These things are important for managers to know about because they directly influence stock distribution dynamics

---

## ESRs in the Northeast US: Relevance to management

Fisheries yields are affected by ecosystem conditions1-3

Important ecosystem predictors of fisheries yield on global scale1:
* Sea surface temperature (-)
* Chlorophyll a (+)
* Particle export ratio (particles leaving euphotic zone:primary production) (+)
* Mesozooplankton productivity (+)

.pull-right[
.footnote[
[1] Friedland, Kevin D., et al. "Pathways between primary production and fisheries yields of large marine ecosystems." PLoS One 7.1 (2012): e28945.

[2] Frank, Kenneth T., et al. "Reconciling differences in trophic control in mid‐latitude marine ecosystems." Ecology Letters 9.10 (2006): 1096-1105.

[3] Ware, Daniel M., and Richard E. Thomson. "Bottom-up ecosystem trophic dynamics determine fish production in the Northeast Pacific." science 308.5726 (2005): 1280-1284.
]
]

???
The figure here shows the relationship between chlorophyll a production in 52 large marine ecosystems around the world with fisheries yield in those systems.

So we know that these relationships exist, but drawing actionable place-based management advice from this information is difficult, but in the works here at the Center.

---

## ESR in the Northeast US

ESRs developed by NEFSC since 2009

Considerable support for EAFM exists in Northeast
* Most FMC members in the Northeast support transitioning from a single-species to a multi-species ecosystem approach (i.e. EBFM) to management1

Common refrain upon recieving ESR:
# "So what"?

.footnote[
Biedron, Ingrid S., and Barbara A. Knuth. "Toward shared understandings of ecosystem-based fisheries management among fishery management councils and stakeholders in the US Mid-Atlantic and New England regions." Marine Policy 70 (2016): 40-48.
]

---

## Problems with ESR model:

* Council members are busy people!

* Long-documents with unfamiliar information unlikely to connect
  
* Not all Council members have science background

* "What does chlorophyll concentration tell us about fisheries yields?"

The disconnect inspired a new model, which we call **State of the Ecosystem (SOE)** reports

???
Question - We can't answer that question directly, but we can do a better job describing these ecosystem pathways

---

## SOE Reporting: Ecosystem science for busy people

Addressing critiques to ESR model in SOE

1. Clear alignment of ecosystem components with management objectives

1. Objectives related to human-well being placed first in report

1. Non-technical text

1. Short (< 30 pages), but rigorous

1. Emphasis on reproducibility

???
In 2016, we began taking steps to address these common critiques of the ESR model

---
## SOE reporting: Quantifying change

Status (short-term) and trend (long-term) of components are measured as **indicators**

Indicators are selected to

1. Be broadly informative about a component in a management context1-3

1. Minimize redundancy of information

1. Be responsive to ecosystem change

.footnote[
[1] Rice J. C.Rochet M. J. "A framework for selecting a suite of indicators for fisheries management." ICES Journal of Marine Science 62 (2005): 516–527.

[2] Link J. 2010. Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management: Confronting Tradeoffs . Cambridge University Press, New York.

[3] Zador, Stephani G., et al. "Ecosystem considerations in Alaska: the value of qualitative assessments." ICES Journal of Marine Science 74.1 (2017): 421-430.
]

---
## SOE reporting: Indicator spatial scales

![epus](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/epu-layout-soe-regions.png)

.footnote[
https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-memo/epu.html
]

???
Indicators

---
## State of the Ecosystem 2019: Structure
.pull-left[

### Report Structure
1. Human dimensions

2. Protected species

3. Fish and invertebrates (managed and otherwise)

4. Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
]

.pull-right[
.table[
<table class="table" style="width: 50; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Ecosystem-scale objectives and indicators on the Northeast US shelf</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Objective Categories </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;font-weight: bold;"> Indicators </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Seafood Production </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Landings by feeding guild </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Profits </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Revenue by feeding guild </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Recreation </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Number of anglers and trips; recreational catch </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Stability </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Diversity indices (fishery and species) </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Social &amp; Cultural </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Commercial and recreational reliance </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Biomass or abundance by feeding guild from surveys </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Productivity </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Condition and recruitment of managed species </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Trophic structure </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Relative biomass of feeding guilds, primary productivity </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Habitat </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Estuarine and offshore habitat conditions </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
]
---
## SOE 2019: Feeding guilds

<table class="table table-striped table-hover" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Feeding.guild </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Description </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Examples </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Apex Predator </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Top of food chain </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Shark spp, swordfish </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Piscivore </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Fish eaters </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic cod, spiny dogfish </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Planktivore </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Zooplankton eaters </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Atlantic herring </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Benthivore </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Feed on bottom </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Lobster, black sea bass </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Benthos </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Things that live on bottom </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Sea scallop, urchins </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

* Feeding guilds assigned based on NEFSC food habits data base
  * Food habits change with age and size, so guilds assigned based on most common size class

* Simplified from existing guild structures1,2

.footnote[
[1] Garrison, Lance P, and Jason S Link. 2000. “Dietary guild structure of the fish community in the Northeast United States continental shelf ecosystem.” Marine Ecology Progress Series 202:231–40.

[2] Link, Jason S, Carolyn A Griswold, Elizabeth T Methratta, and Jessie Gunnard. 2006. Documentation for the energy modeling and analysis exercise (EMAX). US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic; Atmospheric Administration.
]

???
Because we focus on ecosystem context, we've aggregated species in most of our indicators up to the level of feeding guild, shown here.

These feeding guilds were derived from NEFSC food habits data and existing guilds identified in the literature

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions 
**Commercial fisheries: Total landings**
.pull-left[
NE:
* Significant decreases in NEFMC managed species in Gulf of Maine

* Periodic signal in GB/MAB Benthos landings reflects rotational management of scallops
]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/ne-total-landings-1.png" width="100%" />
]

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions 
**Commercial fisheries: Landings by feeding guild**
* Decrease in Atlantic herring driving divergence between managed/non-managed species

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions
**Commercial fisheries: Landings by feeding guild**
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/planktivores-gom-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions 
**Commercial fisheries: Total landings**

.pull-left[
MAB:
* Total managed and non-managed landings in MAB are declining, playing out as declines in most feeding guild landings

* Increase in benthivore landings (scup, black sea bass, tilefish)

* Total revenue of managed species also shows negative trend

![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/total-landings2-1.png)

]

.pull-right[
![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/total-landings3-1.png)

]
---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions
**Community engagement and reliance on commercial fisheries**

NE:
* High social-ecological reliance on scallop and lobster
* Species considered moderately to highly at risk due to climate change (OA, temp)

???
Many social-ecological systems in New England are reliant on lobster, as in Gulf of Maine, or scallop, for Georges Bank. As these species are considered moderately to highly at risk due to climate change, the communities dependent on them are at risk as well.

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions
**Community engagement and reliance on commercial fisheries**
.pull-left[
MAB:

* Similar story in MAB, where there is heavy reliance on scallops

* Aquaculture in the MAB is also dominated by shellfish (oysters)

]
.pull-right[
![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/oyster-aqua-1.png)
]

???
Virginia continues to lead the country in oyster production, with aquaculture in the region growing quickly. The time series looks flat compared to Virginia, but oyster aquaculture in New Jersey is also growing.

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions
**Recreational fishing**
.pull-left[
NE: 
* Positive long-term trend for diversity of catch in New England recreational fisheries

* Overall decline in rec seafood harvest since 1980s
  * Trending upwards since mid-90s

* Increase in recreational effort (n anglers) since the mid 90s
]
.pull-right[
![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/rec-div1-1.png)
]

???
While commercial fisheries have high specialization of catch, there's a positive long-term trend for recreational catch diversity in the recreational sector.

Updated Marine Recreational Information Program data shows that there's been an upswing in harvest since the mid-90s, although the trend overall is negative

This corresponds with an increase in recreational effort since the mid-90s

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions
**Recreational fishing**
.pull-left[
MAB: 
* Similar to NE, there's been a slight increase in rec seafood harvest and recreational effort

* An opposite trend in recreational fleet effort diversity and diversity of catch
  * Decline in fleet effort diversity due to fewer party boats (24% of all trips down to 6%)

]
.pull-right[
![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/rec-div2-1.png)
]

???
Similar to NE, there's been a slight increase in recreational catch since the 90s in the Mid-Atlantic, along with a general increase in effort.

However, different from NE, there are significant downward trends in fleet effort diversity and diversity of catch. While a decline in fleet effort diversity is due to fewer party boats, we can't be sure why there's been a decline in diversity of catch, as South Atlantic FMC species are not tracked seperately.

---
## SOE 2019: Human dimensions
**Recreational engagement and reliance**

.pull-left[
* Downward trend in recreational catch diversity may threaten fishing community stability in Mid-Atlantic

* Engaged and reliant communities in New England could benefit from higher diversity of catch
]

.pull-right[
![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/rec-engagement-1.png)
]
---
## SOE 2019: Protected species

* Protected species include marine mammals, endangered and threatened species, and migratory birds

<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/narw-credit-beth-josephson.JPG" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.image-cap[
*Image credit: Beth Josephson, NOAA Fisheries*
]
--

* **Fishery management objectives** focus on reducing threats to protected species and conserving habitat

???
* in 2018, there were 4 unusual mortality events for three large whale species and two seal species
--

---
## SOE 2019: Protected species
**North Atlantic right whales (NARW)**
* Strong consensus of population decline

* Diverging abundance trends between sexes, with higher female mortality rates
--

* Evidence suggests that the level of interaction between NARWs, lobster gear (US), and snow crab gear (CAN) is contributing to the decline of the species

* 20 NARW deaths in 2017 and 2018, >50% due to human interactions (5 vessel strike, 6 entanglement)

???
The North Atlantic right whale is among the most endangered whales in the world, with less than 450 individuals remaining and declining abundance trends. Evidence suggests that interactions with fisheries are contributing to the decline of the fisheries. Between 2017 and 2018, there were 20 known right whale mortality events, and more than half of these were the direct result of entanglement or vessel strike. Right whale distributions may also be changing with climate related distribution shifts of their main food source, Calanus finmarchicus. 
---
## SOE 2019: Protected species
**Harbor porpoise**

* Current bycatch levels suggest that management actions have been effective in reducing harbor porpoise bycatch

???
The maps here show density estimates of the widely distributed harbor porpoise in the spring and fall months, as estimated by the Atlantic Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species.

The red line in the time series plot shows the potential biological removal. Above this line removals from the population will prevent the stock from reaching a stable population size.

2016 and 2017 estimates for bycacth are among the lowest values in the series, suggest that management actions have been effective in reducing harbor porpoise bycatch. 
---
## SOE 2019: Protected species
**Common tern diet diversity**
.pull-left[
* Warmer waters affect vertical distribution of prey species

* Results in more generalist diet choices
* High diet diversity in past decade may be the result of decreases in preferred prey type (hake, sandlance)
]
.pull-right[
![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/tern-diet-diversity-1.png)
]

---
## SOE 2019: Protected species
**Common tern diet diversity**
* Warmer waters result in *butterfish* appearing in common tern diet
  * May cause starvation or require parents to increase foraging effort
* High diet diversity in past decade may be the result of decreases in preferred prey type (hake, sandlance)

<div id="htmlwidget-a73a18d6296c50523196" style="width:100%;height:360px;" class="plotly html-widget"></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-a73a18d6296c50523196">{"x":{"data":[{"orientation":"v","width":0.900000000000091,"base":0.805536332179931,"x":[1990],"y":[0.127335640138408],"text":"Time: 1990 Freq: 0.12733564 Prey: Amphipod","type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(166,206,227,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Amphipod","legendgroup":"Amphipod","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0.780034324942792,0.791870467195143,0.692147252059652,0.611580726965342,0.826251303441084],"x":[1996,2009,2010,2011,2018],"y":[0.134010297482838,0.129026817338506,0.121597663989989,0.223584108199493,0.0858967674661105],"text":["Time: 1996 Freq: 0.13401030 Prey: Butterfish","Time: 2009 Freq: 0.12902682 Prey: Butterfish","Time: 2010 Freq: 0.12159766 Prey: Butterfish","Time: 2011 Freq: 0.22358411 Prey: Butterfish","Time: 2018 Freq: 0.08589677 Prey: Butterfish"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(31,120,180,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Butterfish","legendgroup":"Butterfish","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0.736727724309221,0.510052447552448,0.713475866537091,0.781701933323185],"x":[2004,2005,2006,2008],"y":[0.186588016144055,0.308129370629371,0.124068675089083,0.0712437205054042],"text":["Time: 2004 Freq: 0.18658802 Prey: Euphausiid","Time: 2005 Freq: 0.30812937 Prey: Euphausiid","Time: 2006 Freq: 0.12406868 Prey: Euphausiid","Time: 2008 Freq: 0.07124372 Prey: Euphausiid"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(178,223,138,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Euphausiid","legendgroup":"Euphausiid","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0.619233776387803,0.616067653276956,0.406228373702422,0.581683168316832,0.678194993412385,0.699858423784804,0.629157080108764,0.533014354066986,0.45866704805492,0.489579524680073,0.606304347826087,0.643660130718954,0.69429298436932,0.704302925989673,0.843827819281394,0.528225024248303,0.477336230984166,0.131993006993007,0.391804340783933,0.449986663110163,0.608007307048257,0.674481362793051,0.440713317342789,0.238799661876585,0.716390138005892,0.56510889292196,0.74743452289784,0.703963666391412,0.539637693202593,0.746738296239447,0.619134515119917],"x":[1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018],"y":[0.268960125097733,0.33107822410148,0.399307958477509,0.360354785478548,0.269104084321476,0.255545068428504,0.252457644844175,0.398883572567783,0.321367276887872,0.43436928702011,0.340652173913043,0.290457516339869,0.242457288258815,0.214457831325301,0.122376378512985,0.387584869059166,0.259391493325054,0.378059440559441,0.321671525753158,0.349959989330488,0.173694626274928,0.117389104402091,0.251433934716863,0.372781065088757,0.127771747557761,0.312386569872958,0.173686628886506,0.203826039086155,0.284360977231178,0.169224865694551,0.207116788321168],"text":["Time: 1988 Freq: 0.26896013 Prey: Hake","Time: 1989 Freq: 0.33107822 Prey: Hake","Time: 1990 Freq: 0.39930796 Prey: Hake","Time: 1991 Freq: 0.36035479 Prey: Hake","Time: 1992 Freq: 0.26910408 Prey: Hake","Time: 1993 Freq: 0.25554507 Prey: Hake","Time: 1994 Freq: 0.25245764 Prey: Hake","Time: 1995 Freq: 0.39888357 Prey: Hake","Time: 1996 Freq: 0.32136728 Prey: Hake","Time: 1997 Freq: 0.43436929 Prey: Hake","Time: 1998 Freq: 0.34065217 Prey: Hake","Time: 1999 Freq: 0.29045752 Prey: Hake","Time: 2000 Freq: 0.24245729 Prey: Hake","Time: 2001 Freq: 0.21445783 Prey: Hake","Time: 2002 Freq: 0.12237638 Prey: Hake","Time: 2003 Freq: 0.38758487 Prey: Hake","Time: 2004 Freq: 0.25939149 Prey: Hake","Time: 2005 Freq: 0.37805944 Prey: Hake","Time: 2006 Freq: 0.32167153 Prey: Hake","Time: 2007 Freq: 0.34995999 Prey: Hake","Time: 2008 Freq: 0.17369463 Prey: Hake","Time: 2009 Freq: 0.11738910 Prey: Hake","Time: 2010 Freq: 0.25143393 Prey: Hake","Time: 2011 Freq: 0.37278107 Prey: Hake","Time: 2012 Freq: 0.12777175 Prey: Hake","Time: 2013 Freq: 0.31238657 Prey: Hake","Time: 2014 Freq: 0.17368663 Prey: Hake","Time: 2015 Freq: 0.20382604 Prey: Hake","Time: 2016 Freq: 0.28436098 Prey: Hake","Time: 2017 Freq: 0.16922487 Prey: Hake","Time: 2018 Freq: 0.20711679 Prey: Hake"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(51,160,44,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Hake","legendgroup":"Hake","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0.226739640344019,0.443551797040169,0.257439446366782,0.193275577557756,0.371541501976285,0.199150542708825,0.330683957331102,0.193141945773525,0.315074370709382,0.313345521023766,0.419565217391304,0.452287581699346,0.436932024718284,0.341135972461274,0.670935610103166,0.286517943743938,0.241850357031978,0.065777972027972,0.151441528992549,0.248066150973593,0.41954635408738,0.257884972170686,0.285535509437898,0.0682586644125106,0.216312606605675,0.346415607985481,0.338796140297136,0.544040737682356,0.329898620575037,0.439242773087746,0.313347236704901],"x":[1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018],"y":[0.392494136043784,0.172515856236786,0.14878892733564,0.388407590759076,0.3066534914361,0.500707881075979,0.298473122777662,0.339872408293461,0.143592677345538,0.176234003656307,0.186739130434783,0.191372549019608,0.257360959651036,0.363166953528399,0.172892209178228,0.241707080504365,0.235485873952189,0.0662150349650349,0.240362811791383,0.20192051213657,0.188460952960877,0.416596390622365,0.155177807904891,0.170540997464074,0.500077531400217,0.218693284936479,0.408638382600705,0.159922928709056,0.209739072627555,0.307495523151701,0.305787278415016],"text":["Time: 1988 Freq: 0.39249414 Prey: Herring","Time: 1989 Freq: 0.17251586 Prey: Herring","Time: 1990 Freq: 0.14878893 Prey: Herring","Time: 1991 Freq: 0.38840759 Prey: Herring","Time: 1992 Freq: 0.30665349 Prey: Herring","Time: 1993 Freq: 0.50070788 Prey: Herring","Time: 1994 Freq: 0.29847312 Prey: Herring","Time: 1995 Freq: 0.33987241 Prey: Herring","Time: 1996 Freq: 0.14359268 Prey: Herring","Time: 1997 Freq: 0.17623400 Prey: Herring","Time: 1998 Freq: 0.18673913 Prey: Herring","Time: 1999 Freq: 0.19137255 Prey: Herring","Time: 2000 Freq: 0.25736096 Prey: Herring","Time: 2001 Freq: 0.36316695 Prey: Herring","Time: 2002 Freq: 0.17289221 Prey: Herring","Time: 2003 Freq: 0.24170708 Prey: Herring","Time: 2004 Freq: 0.23548587 Prey: Herring","Time: 2005 Freq: 0.06621503 Prey: Herring","Time: 2006 Freq: 0.24036281 Prey: Herring","Time: 2007 Freq: 0.20192051 Prey: Herring","Time: 2008 Freq: 0.18846095 Prey: Herring","Time: 2009 Freq: 0.41659639 Prey: Herring","Time: 2010 Freq: 0.15517781 Prey: Herring","Time: 2011 Freq: 0.17054100 Prey: Herring","Time: 2012 Freq: 0.50007753 Prey: Herring","Time: 2013 Freq: 0.21869328 Prey: Herring","Time: 2014 Freq: 0.40863838 Prey: Herring","Time: 2015 Freq: 0.15992293 Prey: Herring","Time: 2016 Freq: 0.20973907 Prey: Herring","Time: 2017 Freq: 0.30749552 Prey: Herring","Time: 2018 Freq: 0.30578728 Prey: Herring"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(251,154,153,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Herring","legendgroup":"Herring","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0.336575052854123,0.168858131487889,0.366739130434783,0.612237637851298,0.336124219820368],"x":[1989,1990,1998,2002,2008],"y":[0.106976744186047,0.0885813148788928,0.0528260869565217,0.0586979722518677,0.0834221342670117],"text":["Time: 1989 Freq: 0.10697674 Prey: Other Invertebrate","Time: 1990 Freq: 0.08858131 Prey: Other Invertebrate","Time: 1998 Freq: 0.05282609 Prey: Other Invertebrate","Time: 2002 Freq: 0.05869797 Prey: Other Invertebrate","Time: 2008 Freq: 0.08342213 Prey: Other Invertebrate"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(227,26,28,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Other Invertebrate","legendgroup":"Other Invertebrate","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0.12046204620462,0.151515151515152,0.39921568627451,0.207565470417071],"x":[1991,1992,1999,2003],"y":[0.0728135313531353,0.220026350461133,0.0530718954248366,0.0789524733268671],"text":["Time: 1991 Freq: 0.07281353 Prey: Pollock","Time: 1992 Freq: 0.22002635 Prey: Pollock","Time: 1999 Freq: 0.05307190 Prey: Pollock","Time: 2003 Freq: 0.07895247 Prey: Pollock"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(253,191,111,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Pollock","legendgroup":"Pollock","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0.139953088350274,0.236786469344609,0.100346020761246,0.121755545068429,0.204559715540682,0.0905901116427432,0.155892448512586,0.126691042047532,0.121739130434783,0.181176470588235,0.0850599781897492,0.15249569707401,0.119530416221985,0.1454898157129,0.180378764358895,0.150440117364631,0.14492312376313,0.182661494349806,0.163520700803003,0.0818731586292448,0.123411978221416,0.172308163577883,0.182769061381778,0.194449060993851,0.221412125863392,0.150808133472367],"x":[1988,1989,1990,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2008,2009,2010,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018],"y":[0.0867865519937451,0.0997885835095137,0.0685121107266436,0.0773949976403964,0.12612424179042,0.102551834130782,0.159181922196796,0.186654478976234,0.245,0.218039215686275,0.351872046528535,0.188640275387263,0.492707221629313,0.0620756547041707,0.0614715926730829,0.0976260336089624,0.191201096057239,0.0752234778208804,0.122014808634894,0.13443944797643,0.223003629764065,0.166487976719253,0.361271676300578,0.135449559581187,0.217830647224354,0.162539103232534],"text":["Time: 1988 Freq: 0.08678655 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1989 Freq: 0.09978858 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1990 Freq: 0.06851211 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1993 Freq: 0.07739500 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1994 Freq: 0.12612424 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1995 Freq: 0.10255183 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1996 Freq: 0.15918192 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1997 Freq: 0.18665448 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1998 Freq: 0.24500000 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 1999 Freq: 0.21803922 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2000 Freq: 0.35187205 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2001 Freq: 0.18864028 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2002 Freq: 0.49270722 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2003 Freq: 0.06207565 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2004 Freq: 0.06147159 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2007 Freq: 0.09762603 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2008 Freq: 0.19120110 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2009 Freq: 0.07522348 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2010 Freq: 0.12201481 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2012 Freq: 0.13443945 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2013 Freq: 0.22300363 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2014 Freq: 0.16648798 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2015 Freq: 0.36127168 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2016 Freq: 0.13544956 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2017 Freq: 0.21783065 Prey: Sandlance","Time: 2018 Freq: 0.16253910 Prey: Sandlance"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(255,127,0,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Sandlance","legendgroup":"Sandlance","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091,0.900000000000091],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.0680272108843537,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018],"y":[0.139953088350274,0.236786469344609,0.100346020761246,0.12046204620462,0.151515151515152,0.121755545068429,0.204559715540682,0.0905901116427432,0.155892448512586,0.126691042047532,0.121739130434783,0.181176470588235,0.0850599781897492,0.15249569707401,0.119530416221985,0.1454898157129,0.180378764358895,0.065777972027972,0.0834143181081957,0.150440117364631,0.14492312376313,0.182661494349806,0.163520700803003,0.0682586644125106,0.0818731586292448,0.123411978221416,0.172308163577883,0.182769061381778,0.194449060993851,0.221412125863392,0.150808133472367],"text":["Time: 1988 Freq: 0.13995309 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1989 Freq: 0.23678647 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1990 Freq: 0.10034602 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1991 Freq: 0.12046205 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1992 Freq: 0.15151515 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1993 Freq: 0.12175555 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1994 Freq: 0.20455972 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1995 Freq: 0.09059011 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1996 Freq: 0.15589245 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1997 Freq: 0.12669104 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1998 Freq: 0.12173913 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 1999 Freq: 0.18117647 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2000 Freq: 0.08505998 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2001 Freq: 0.15249570 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2002 Freq: 0.11953042 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2003 Freq: 0.14548982 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2004 Freq: 0.18037876 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2005 Freq: 0.06577797 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2006 Freq: 0.08341432 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2007 Freq: 0.15044012 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2008 Freq: 0.14492312 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2009 Freq: 0.18266149 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2010 Freq: 0.16352070 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2011 Freq: 0.06825866 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2012 Freq: 0.08187316 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2013 Freq: 0.12341198 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2014 Freq: 0.17230816 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2015 Freq: 0.18276906 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2016 Freq: 0.19444906 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2017 Freq: 0.22141213 Prey: Unknown Fish","Time: 2018 Freq: 0.15080813 Prey: Unknown Fish"],"type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(202,178,214,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Unknown Fish","legendgroup":"Unknown Fish","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":0.900000000000091,"base":0,"x":[2006],"y":[0.0680272108843537],"text":"Time: 2006 Freq: 0.06802721 Prey: Unknown Invertebrate","type":"bar","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(106,61,154,1)","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Unknown Invertebrate","legendgroup":"Unknown Invertebrate","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":43.7625570776256,"r":7.30593607305936,"b":38.854296388543,"l":47.6214196762142},"paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.6118721461187},"title":"Prey composition","titlefont":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":17.5342465753425},"xaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[1987.231,2018.769],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["1990","2000","2010"],"tickvals":[1990,2000,2010],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["1990","2000","2010"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"outside","tickcolor":"rgba(51,51,51,1)","ticklen":3.65296803652968,"tickwidth":0.66417600664176,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.689497716895},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":false,"gridcolor":null,"gridwidth":0,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"y","title":"Time","titlefont":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":13.2835201328352},"hoverformat":".2f"},"yaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"type":"linear","autorange":false,"range":[-0.048310209889719,1.0145144076841],"tickmode":"array","ticktext":["0.00","0.25","0.50","0.75","1.00"],"tickvals":[0,0.25,0.5,0.75,1],"categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["0.00","0.25","0.50","0.75","1.00"],"nticks":null,"ticks":"outside","tickcolor":"rgba(51,51,51,1)","ticklen":3.65296803652968,"tickwidth":0.66417600664176,"showticklabels":true,"tickfont":{"color":"rgba(77,77,77,1)","family":"","size":11.689497716895},"tickangle":-0,"showline":false,"linecolor":null,"linewidth":0,"showgrid":false,"gridcolor":null,"gridwidth":0,"zeroline":false,"anchor":"x","title":"Proportion of prey items","titlefont":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":13.2835201328352},"hoverformat":".2f"},"shapes":[{"type":"rect","fillcolor":"transparent","line":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","width":0.99626400996264,"linetype":"solid"},"yref":"paper","xref":"paper","x0":0,"x1":1,"y0":0,"y1":1}],"showlegend":true,"legend":{"bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","bordercolor":"transparent","borderwidth":1.88976377952756,"font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":11.689497716895},"y":0.913385826771654},"annotations":[{"text":"Prey","x":1.02,"y":1,"showarrow":false,"ax":0,"ay":0,"font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":14.6118721461187},"xref":"paper","yref":"paper","textangle":-0,"xanchor":"left","yanchor":"bottom","legendTitle":true}],"hovermode":"closest","barmode":"relative"},"config":{"doubleClick":"reset","modeBarButtonsToAdd":[{"name":"Collaborate","icon":{"width":1000,"ascent":500,"descent":-50,"path":"M487 375c7-10 9-23 5-36l-79-259c-3-12-11-23-22-31-11-8-22-12-35-12l-263 0c-15 0-29 5-43 15-13 10-23 23-28 37-5 13-5 25-1 37 0 0 0 3 1 7 1 5 1 8 1 11 0 2 0 4-1 6 0 3-1 5-1 6 1 2 2 4 3 6 1 2 2 4 4 6 2 3 4 5 5 7 5 7 9 16 13 26 4 10 7 19 9 26 0 2 0 5 0 9-1 4-1 6 0 8 0 2 2 5 4 8 3 3 5 5 5 7 4 6 8 15 12 26 4 11 7 19 7 26 1 1 0 4 0 9-1 4-1 7 0 8 1 2 3 5 6 8 4 4 6 6 6 7 4 5 8 13 13 24 4 11 7 20 7 28 1 1 0 4 0 7-1 3-1 6-1 7 0 2 1 4 3 6 1 1 3 4 5 6 2 3 3 5 5 6 1 2 3 5 4 9 2 3 3 7 5 10 1 3 2 6 4 10 2 4 4 7 6 9 2 3 4 5 7 7 3 2 7 3 11 3 3 0 8 0 13-1l0-1c7 2 12 2 14 2l218 0c14 0 25-5 32-16 8-10 10-23 6-37l-79-259c-7-22-13-37-20-43-7-7-19-10-37-10l-248 0c-5 0-9-2-11-5-2-3-2-7 0-12 4-13 18-20 41-20l264 0c5 0 10 2 16 5 5 3 8 6 10 11l85 282c2 5 2 10 2 17 7-3 13-7 17-13z m-304 0c-1-3-1-5 0-7 1-1 3-2 6-2l174 0c2 0 4 1 7 2 2 2 4 4 5 7l6 18c0 3 0 5-1 7-1 1-3 2-6 2l-173 0c-3 0-5-1-8-2-2-2-4-4-4-7z m-24-73c-1-3-1-5 0-7 2-2 3-2 6-2l174 0c2 0 5 0 7 2 3 2 4 4 5 7l6 18c1 2 0 5-1 6-1 2-3 3-5 3l-174 0c-3 0-5-1-7-3-3-1-4-4-5-6z"},"click":"function(gd) { \n // is this being viewed in RStudio?\n if (location.search == '?viewer_pane=1') {\n alert('To learn about plotly for collaboration, visit:\\n https://cpsievert.github.io/plotly_book/plot-ly-for-collaboration.html');\n } else {\n window.open('https://cpsievert.github.io/plotly_book/plot-ly-for-collaboration.html', '_blank');\n }\n }"}],"cloud":false},"source":"A","attrs":{"21a0e8e6d26":{"x":{},"y":{},"fill":{},"type":"bar"}},"cur_data":"21a0e8e6d26","visdat":{"21a0e8e6d26":["function (y) ","x"]},"highlight":{"on":"plotly_click","persistent":false,"dynamic":false,"selectize":false,"opacityDim":0.2,"selected":{"opacity":1},"debounce":0},"base_url":"https://plot.ly"},"evals":["config.modeBarButtonsToAdd.0.click"],"jsHooks":[]}</script>

???
* Common tern breeding colonies are monitored in the southern GOM
* Common tern sensitive to vertical distribution of prey

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Objective: Keep harvested species within population ranges where productivity is maximized over long-term**
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/NE-stock-status-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

* 4 stocks above F/Fmsy and below B/Bmsy
 * Southern NE Yellowtail, GOM Cod, CC-GOM Yellowtail, Southern GB/MAB red hake
 
???
Stocks depicted here represent a subset of the full ecosystem

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Objective: Keep harvested species within population ranges where productivity is maximized over long-term**

* No stock above F/Fmsy and below B/Bmsy
* Mackerel currently seeing unsustainable fishing mortality

???
Plot shows the ratio of stock mortality (F) to stock mortality at maximum sustainable yield, where a number larger than one indicates the stock is experiencing unsustainable fishing pressure. On the x axis we have the ratio of estimated stock biomass to biomass at maximum sustainable yield.

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Changing distributions**

* Decline in proportion of NEFMC in MAB driven mostly by ocean pout
* Increase in MAFMC species proportiongs in GOM/GB driven by mackerel

.footnote[
https://seanhardison.shinyapps.io/surv_app/ 
]

???
Traditional fisheries management is based around stable species distributions, but those distributions aren't static, and especially not in the context of changing ecosystem conditions

The NEFSC has run a bottom trawl survey since the early 1960s, and these figures highlight how distributions of managed species within feeding guilds have changed.

The decline in NEFMC species in the mid survey is driven mostly by ocean pout, which has seen proportional declines in the gulf of maine and georges bank survey

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Changing distributions**

* Increase in MAFMC species in GOM and GB driven by mackerel

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Bottom trawl surveys: New England**

![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/ne-survey-1.png)

???
* In Gulf of Maine, the survey data show long-term increases in the Fall survey for Piscivores, Planktivores, and Benthos species, and long-term increases in planktivore abundance in the spring. 
* In Georges Bank, the survey shows long-term increases for benthos and planktivore species in both fall and spring, and piscivores in the fall.
* A recent decline in Georges Bank benthivore biomass is driven by a decline in haddock in the survey

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Bottom trawl surveys: Mid-Atlantic**

.pull-left[

* NEFSC bottom trawl survey data paired with NEAMAP inshore bottom trawl data from the region

* Opposing trends in piscivore biomass during the spring and fall seasons for the offshore survey.

]

.pull-right[
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/ma-survey-1.png" width="100%" />
]

.footnote[
[1] [View all survey data](https://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna)

[2] [Explore survey proportions](https://seanhardison.shinyapps.io/surv_app/)
]

???
For the Mid, we show offshore bottom trawl survey data paired with inshore bottom trawl data collected in the region by Northeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program.

There appear to be opposing trends in spring piscivore biomass between the two surveys, which could reflect higher prevalence of spiny dogfish offshore

We didn't include the data in this presentation, but we also recieved inshore survey data from the Maine/New Hampshire survey and Mass state survey, and we hope to take a deeper look over the next SOE cycle

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Fish condition**

* Fish condition is measured at the weight at a given length relative to the average
  * Condition, or "fatness", is a factor that influences fecundity

*NEFMC Condition Factor*
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/NEFMC_Fish_Condition_2019.jpg" width="75%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

???
Looking at condition in aggregate across all managed stocks, we can see a clear decline in condition between 2000-2010

Recent improvement within past decade

Interestingly, the drop-off in condition around 2000 resembles a shift in zooplankton size-structure on the shelf, and this is a topic for future research

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Fish productivity**

The fish productivity indicator shown here is the small fish per large fish biomass anomaly

???
In the Mid, there seems to be a decline in productivity in recent years, due to changes in recruitment and survival.

In the past 5 years, strong productivity years for witch flounder, silver hake, and winter flounder have driven increases

---
## SOE 2019: Fish and invertebrates
**Larval diversity**
The last thing I'll talk about from the fish and intertebrates section is our metric of larval diversity, which was derived from the NEFSC Ecosystem Monitoring cruises.

The diversity index tells us about the changing dominance of forage fish, hake, and haddock in the plankton

The most recent data we have for the Mid-Atlantic has shown the lowest larval estimates of larval diversity in the time series. As temperatures increase, there is a potential for a temporal mismatch of larvae with their zooplankton food sources, which could affect larval survival.

---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity

Indicators here provide information about:

* Changing conditions encountered by managed species in different seasons and across habitats, which likely influences their distributions

**Chesapeake Bay Water Quality**

???
First indicator I'd like to talk about is a new water quality for Chesapeake Bay, which many resource species use as nursery habitat or are dependent upon (e.g. bluefish, striped bass, menhaden, black sea bass)

These data, which were provided by collaborators at the Chesapeake Bay Program, represent the percent of tidal waters in Chesapeake Bay meeting water quality standards for chlorophyll a, submerged aquatic vegetation, and dissolved oxygen. The increase in water quality for the Bay has been tied to management action limiting nutrient influx into the watershed.

---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Ocean temperature: New England**

Warming oceans have implications for suitable fish habitat, which is predicted to decline for many NE species1

.footnote[
Kleisner, Kristin M., et al. "Marine species distribution shifts on the US Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming." Progress in Oceanography 153 (2017): 24-36.
]

* Gulf of Maine summer SSTs were the highest on record in 2018 (~3°C > long-term mean)

???
These changes have implications for fish populations in the region that are already at the southern extent of their ranges, like Atlantic cod. Suitable habitat for these species is predicted to contract as waters continue to warm.

---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Ocean temperature: New England**

Much the same for bottom temperatures in the region

---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Ocean temperature: Mid-Atlantic**

???
The same is true for the Mid-Atlantic Bight
* Mid-Atlantic summer SSTs were 3rd highest on record

As I noted earlier, some species in the Mid-Atlantic could actually see range expansions due to warming ocean temperatures, including croaker and striped bass.

---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Ocean circulation**

.footnote[
Townsend, D. W., Pettigrew, N. R., Thomas, M. A., Neary, M. G., McGillidcuddy, D. J., O'Donnell, J (2015), Water masses and nutrient sources to the Gulf of Maine, Journal of Marine Research, 73: 93-122.
]

???
Regional currents are major influencers of ocean temperatures in the NW Atlantic

The Gulf Stream is a reliable indicator of bottom water temps

An offshoot of the gulf stream is the warm slope water, which makes its way into gulf of maine through the northeast channel

---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Ocean circulation**

Which brings us back to...

???
Over the past few years, we've seen a strong departure of the gulf stream north wall from it's mean latitude

With that comes a larger percentage of warm slope water entering into gulf of maine through the NE channel

---

## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Primary production**
* Summer PP is increasing in both New England and Mid-Atlantic

![](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/pp-trends-1.png)

???
* Driven by warmer temperatures and increased bacterial remineralization and nutrient recycling
* Increasing primary production likely due to higher productivity of smaller phytoplankton

---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Primary production and copepod size structure**

* Primary production may play a role in zooplankton size dynamics on the shelf

???
To assess the size structure of copepods in the region, we use the small-large index.
* A measure of relative size composition of the dominant copepod taxa
* A lower value means higher abundance of large copepods (Calanus)
* Primary production may play a role in copepod size dynamics***
---
## SOE 2019: Habitat quality and ecosystem productivity
**Zooplankton abundance**
* Seasonal abundances of key zooplankton species
 * Opposing trends in Centropages in spring and fall, which corresponds to a shift in timing of their peak concentration from late fall to early spring1
 
<img src="20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_files/figure-html/seasonal-zoo-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

.footnote[
[1] Bi H, Ji R, Liu H, Jo Y-H, Hare JA. Decadal Changes in Zooplankton of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf. PLOS ONE. 2014;9: e87720. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087720
]

---
## SOE 2019: Takeaways

* Even though the NE is "data rich", there are large gaps in our understanding of the system

* Changes in climate dynamics affect all nodes of NES network in different ways, but all have implications for human-ecosystem interactions and community well-being

* Making managers aware of the trends in ecosystem components is important for integrated and sustainable management strategies of the the fisheries sector (EBFM)

---
## SOE 2019: Reproducibility and provenance

* Reporting the information is not enough

* Managers appreciate the concise format, but back-end critical for describing collection, analyses, and processing
  
![soe-data-flow](20190313_EBFMseminar_Hardison_images/soe-data-flow.png)

???
This workflows also ensures that there's no information lost between SOE cycles. We know exactly how a data set was analyzed and handled so that the data can be updated for next year's reports.

---
## Contributors - THANK YOU!

The New England and Mid-Atlantic SOEs made possible by (at least) 38 contributors from 8 intstitutions

.pull-left[
.contrib[
Donald Anderson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) 
Amani Bassyouni (Virginia Department of Health) 
Lisa Calvo (Rutgers) 
Matthew Camisa (MA Division of Marine Fisheries) 
Patricia Clay 
Lisa Colburn 
Geret DePiper 
Deb Duarte 
Michael Fogarty 
Paula Fratantoni 
Kevin Friedland 
Sarah Gaichas 
James Gartland (Virginia Institute of Marine Science) 
Heather Haas 
Sean Hardison 
Kimberly Hyde 
Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) 
John Kosik 
Steve Kress (National Audubon Society) 
Scott Large
]
]

.pull-right[
.contrib[
Don Lyons (National Audubon Society) 
Loren Kellogg 
David Kulis (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) 
Sean Lucey 
Chris Melrose 
Ryan Morse 
Kimberly Murray 
Chris Orphanides 
Richard Pace 
Charles Perretti 
Karl Roscher (Maryland Department of Natural Resources) 
Vincent Saba 
Laurel Smith 
Mark Terceiro 
John Walden 
Harvey Walsh 
Mark Wuenschel 
Qian Zhang (Unversity of Maryland and US EPA Chesapeake Bay Program)
]
]

---
## External Resources

* [SOE Technical Documentation](https://noaa-edab.github.io/tech-memo)

* [ecodata R package](https://github.com/noaa-edab/ecodata)

* [Macrofauna indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/macrofauna)
  * [Human Dimensions indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/human_dimensions)
  * [Lower trophic level indicators](http://noaa-edab.github.io/ecodata/LTL)
  
* [ERDDAP server](https://comet.nefsc.noaa.gov/erddap/index.html)

* Slides available at https://seanhardison1.github.io/soe-presentation

---
## Species compositions by feeding guild
.table[
<table class="table table-striped table-hover" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Feeding guilds and management bodies.</caption>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Guild </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> MAFMC </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Joint </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> NEFMC </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> State or Other </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Apex Predator </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> bluefin tuna, shark uncl, swordfish, yellowfin tuna </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Piscivore </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> bluefish, summer flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> goosefish, spiny dogfish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> acadian redfish, atlantic cod, atlantic halibut, clearnose skate, little skate, offshore hake, pollock, red hake, silver hake, smooth skate, thorny skate, white hake, winter skate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> fourspot flounder, john dory, sea raven, striped bass, weakfish, windowpane </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Planktivore </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic mackerel, butterfish, longfin squid, northern shortfin squid </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> atlantic herring </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> alewife, american shad, blackbelly rosefish, blueback herring, cusk, longhorn sculpin, lumpfish, menhaden, northern sand lance, northern searobin, sculpin uncl </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthivore </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> black sea bass, scup, tilefish </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> american plaice, barndoor skate, crab,red deepsea, haddock, ocean pout, rosette skate, winter flounder, witch flounder, yellowtail flounder </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> american lobster, atlantic wolffish, blue crab, cancer crab uncl, chain dogfish, cunner, jonah crab, lady crab, smooth dogfish, spider crab uncl, squid cuttlefish and octopod uncl, striped searobin, tautog </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> Benthos </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 4cm; "> atlantic surfclam, ocean quahog </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 2cm; "> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 5cm; "> sea scallop </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;width: 6cm; "> blue mussel, channeled whelk, sea cucumber, sea urchin and sand dollar uncl, sea urchins, snails(conchs) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]